02.04.2015 07:51 AM

Sudbury speculative sweepstakes

Place your bets! Comments are open!

  1. NDP ahead by three points!
  2. Liberals ahead by four points!
  3. We don’t have a clue who is ahead, but we’re going to use up 804 words to give you the impression we know, when we actually don’t, not in the slightest!

My gut, which I have resolved to listen to more often, tells me that the Libs will win – solely and entirely due to the favourable impression folks have of Kathleen Wynne.

What’s your take? Speculate recklessly, without making recourse to facts! The pollsters certainly do, so why can’t you do likewise?

15 Comments

  1. Peter says:

    As Sudbury goes, so goes…well, nowhere actually.

  2. Recklessly, I don’t know many people who have a favourable impression of Kathleen Wynne. I think your impression of that might be a Toronto-centric thing, but it also could be that my exposure to a variety of people who willingly discuss politics is limited.

    I am hoping for an NDP win regardless. I remain non-partisan, but I like Ontario’s NDP significantly better than the OLP, and I suspect they are, in general, better advocates for northern issues.

  3. Jason says:

    Damned if I know, but here’s a couple of staws in the wind:

    1. I’d love to know, from somebody reliable, how many (if any) Liberals decamped to help the former-Lib-now-independent, Olivier. I did read that one or more riding association folks quit when Thibeault was appointed, but are former Liberals helping out on Olivier’s campaign in large numbers? It’s important because even though I don’t think he’ll win, he could pull support from (presumably) the OLP – but without the horses to get out the vote, he may do worse on e-day than he’s doing in opinion polls. Sure, you *can* do well without a heavy ground game (cf. the NDP in QC in ’11), but generally, it’s harder to do so.

    2. The ONDP, before the last general election, punched above its weight in several by-elections, in part because they can and do put all their resources into one seat instead of 100+. And Lord knows, they’re motivated to keep this one. That being said, I’m sure the OLP in particular are putting a lot into Sudbury as well.

    Honestly, I would love to see the OLP take a bloody nose on this one, both for whatever shenanigans may have gone on in terms of Olivier and because Thibeault’s a turncoat, but my head *and* my gut say that Thibeault will probably edge the others out.

  4. Michael says:

    The NDP have done well in by elections. They are able to concentrate their limited resources. The Liberals have every staffer and their dog in Sudbury for E day. Will be interesting to see if Andrea’s by election streak continues.

  5. MississaugaPeter says:

    What I know for sure is that if there is no general election in the spring, the fine folks in Sudbury will have gone through 5 elections in 18 months – twice for MPP, twice for MP, municipal. A cottage industry there.

    http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/dis&document=vacant_2011&lang=e

  6. Lance says:

    The Shabonquit is winning the sign war. 😉

  7. Quito Magg says:

    I agree with you Warren

  8. BrianK says:

    My guess is that a statistical tie goes to the Libs, they’ve got the ground game. Not just in terms of numbers, but in terms of actually knowing how to deploy those numbers for maximum effectiveness.

  9. jeff316 says:

    Thibeault wins with a comfy margin

    Olivier comes in a strong third, siphoning off enough anti-Liberal voters who would have otherwise cast a disgruntled anybody-but-Liberal vote for the NDP, denying the NDP a squaker win like the last time

  10. Tiger says:

    Thibeault by ten.

    Noise aside, he has name recognition and Wynne is currently riding high in centre-left circles.

  11. Matt says:

    My gut feeling says Thibeault takes it. But there’s been a lot of talk about how “Liberal corruption is worse than we thought” and “the OPP are investigating and it goes right to the Premier” – not sure what impact that has. I really don’t know, so I’ll avoid writing a treatise.

  12. graham watt says:

    3% 19 times out of 20 has always been an enormous weasel to distract questions about the questions. It’s why polling is a mug’s game. The questions asked, the phrasing of the questions as to what they leave out, even more than add, obvious answers pollsters wanted seen in the questions asked, are the guts of this nasty business. Try substituting the Harper, Mulcair, Trudeau names, with some three people you love and trust and see how bent this whole thing is. Bent as the government in power.

  13. Jeff Ferrier says:

    Thibeault could win. If he does, it’s because Sudbury will have decided it wants a voice in government, not because what people think about Wynne.

    Or the NDP might win. If it does, it’s because of Wynne’s intervention in the by-election, which turned a gimme for the government into a toss-up because of the ethical cloud generated by her team’s dealings with Mr. Olivier.

    John Turmel will not win.

  14. jeff316 says:

    “Or the NDP might win. If it does, it’s because of Wynne’s intervention in the by-election, which turned a gimme for the government into a toss-up because of the ethical cloud generated by her team’s dealings with Mr. Olivier. ”

    Agreed on the intervention. The NDP looked like fools for running Cimino only to have him quit. There was no practical reason to replace him with another NDPer. The Liberals didn’t need Thibeault, and they didn’t need to pave the way for him. This was in their sights from the beginning.

    Thankfully for Liberals, Olivier running has probably helped saved the day. One has to wonder if he got tapped on the shoulder for that, too.

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