02.18.2015 08:13 AM

Who is going to win the 2015 federal election?

Here’s what the bright Mr. Grenier says on CBC’s web site this morning. But what do you guys think?

Last week, Lala and me had a long-overdue dinner with two of the smartest political folks I know. We decided to wager on the outcome of the 2015 election, region by region.

I’ve blurred out the names of the participants in our little election poll, to protect the guilty. On the left side of the Moleskin notebook page, however, is a column representing the Atlantic region, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies and B.C. (Moleskin didn’t leave enough room for the Territories, sorry. And some of my addition may be wrong, but tant pis.)

On the right side, you’ll see that I have prognosticated that the Liberals will do well: they’ll dominate in the Atlantic and Quebec, do better in Ontario than they did in 2011, pick up a few in Manitoba-Saskatchewan-Alberta, and then get a third of the British Columbia pie. But I don’t see the NDP disappearing completely, which is why the Tories will remain in the Grits’ rear view mirror. It’ll be close, I predict, and we’ll be back at it in 2017, after a Conservative leadership race. Yay! More opportunity for baseless speculation!

Now, Grenier and various pollsters say the Conservatives are edging ever-closer to a majority. Trudeau has lost ground, they say, due to his stance on the international effort against ISIS, and because of uncertainty about his ability to manage an economy that seems fragile. The verbal missteps certainly haven’t helped, either.

But that’s them. You’re smarter, Dear Reader. What do you think? Place your bets, in comments, and have fun.



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    Paris Nicolaides says:

    Interesting speculation that’s always fun. I’m curious though if you considered what would result should it come to a Tory minority? Would the Conservatives even survive a throne speech? Will we hear the Prime Minister plaintively crying coup d’etat, beer hall putsch, NDP/LPC junta or some other such nonsense? A repeat of the “coalition crisis” on roids? That to me is the most interesting.

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      Warren says:

      I suspect Harper would announce his intention to resign, and there would be no coalition – the NDP presently hate the Liberals’ guts, and vice-versa. New leader, CPC goes back at it in 2017.

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        Matt says:

        What if the Libs take official opposition dropping the NDP to third party status. Mulcair resigns and a more coalition freindly leader like Nathan Cullen takes over?

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          Warren says:

          That takes 18 months.

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            edward nuff says:

            i keep seeing 81 and it has nothing to do with Phil Kessel. I’ve dreamt it, seen it and thought it. Have no idea why or who, just 81

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        doconnor says:

        The question isn’t will there be a coalition between the Liberals and NDP. The question would either the Liberal or NDP support a Conservative government?

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    Mike Corbin says:

    What has the NDP done to lose some many of their seats in Quebec?

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      doconnor says:

      Not being the most likely party to unseat the Conservatives.

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    cgh says:

    Warren, you’ve said it yourself many times: elections matter. And the specific incidents that shape an election are impossible to predict. Are the Tories in reasonably good shape going into an election? Yes. Do the Liberals have some significant leadership and messaging issues? Yes. Is the NDP hold on Quebec less than secure? Yes. Seat count predictions at this point are ridiculous; ask Christy Clark at the beginning of the BC provincial election. Ask yourself this, who has momentum right now?

    Many decades ago, a chess world champion noted that “He wins who makes the next-to-last mistake”. Which of the three parties has the most experience going in, and which of them right now appears the most gaffe-prone?

    More questions than answers from me at this point.

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    Matt says:

    Do you see Jason Kenny’s appointment as Defence Minister as an indication the Conservatives are going to make national security international affairs a major factor in the 2015 campaign? Has a Canadian election ever been run/won with foregin affairs as one of or the main issue(s)?

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      Warren says:

      Sure, 1988.

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        Scotian says:

        To be fair Warren, that was about a fundamental realignment of our entire economic nature with the Free Trade deal, at least as much a domestic issue as foreign/international, not the same as the fight against international terrorism. I do not think you can reasonably compare that with what appears to be the way the Harper government plans to make foreign policy and security issues the dominant theme to their campaign. I will agree it is as close to such a case as we have seen, 1988 that is, but like I said, that was at least as much about our domestic economics as foreign policy, and something that was clearly felt by the vast majority of the populace, it was after all one of the great debates within our society over many decades. I’m just not convinced the same is true regarding the war on ISIS/ISIL and international terrorism more broadly in terms of defining an election question. Not saying it can’t happen, just not convinced 1988 gives a basis for comparison because of the massive domestic aspects involved in that issue.

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    DJ says:

    No doubt, Trudeau has made some missteps. Harper did too in opposition. However, Trudeau and the Liberals are in much better shape going into this campaign than in 2008 and 2011. Trudeau is better able to rally the party and bring in new supporters than Ignatieff and Dion were. The party has also got its act together on fundraising and reaching out to supporters. This will be a very competitive election!

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    Al in Cranbrook says:

    The shine is coming off of the young dauphin, honeymoon is over, etc., etc. Voters look around the world and don’t like much of anything they see, and are reminded too regularly of late that it could get worse…a lot worse…before it gets any better. It’s conventional wisdom to suggest that international politics/affairs don’t factor into federal elections. But we increasingly are aware that we live in a global community, and now Canada is more than merely the bit player and/or spectator from the sidelines that has largely been the case since the late ’60s. And the mythology of “peace keepers” is quickly fading in the light of reality that includes Putin, Al Qaida and ISIS. A world led in large part by a hopelessly idealistic and nauseatingly mushy ideologue named Obama, but that wonders if there is anywhere out there another resolute and iron fisted Churchill to get us through this growing mess. Clearly, young Trudeau has a helluva lot more in common with the former than any semblance whatsoever of the latter. Trudeau is still stuck within the confines of mythological Liberal past glories and dogma, whereas Harper has demonstrated an acute awareness and understanding of present global exigencies, both economically and geo-politically, and both here and on the world stage.

    Try to imagine Justin Trudeau on the world stage with likes of Putin, Merkel, Cameron, an Israeli PM, any US president you can imagine, etc, etc.

    Me, neither.

    Libs will pick up some seats in Quebec, but so will the CPC.

    Libs will pick up a few seats around Toronto, but CPC will hold majority in the burbs, and gain their share of the new ridings.

    Nothing changes in the prairies, all blue but a few.

    BC, yet again, will confound the Liberals and NDP by defying two years worth of mid-term polling, and voting mostly CPC outside of downtown Vancouver and Victoria.

    CPC majority…quite possibly larger than the current.

    Harper retires two years later.


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      Al in Cranbrook says:

      I should add: What are people talking about? Two things, mostly: The price of oil, and terrorism. Two topics that will dominate the news for the foreseeable future. Neither of which Trudeau has the foggiest clue…except that he wants to jam us with a carbon tax and raise the price of everything on top of all of it.

      Good luck with that, eh?

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      Al in Cranbrook says:

      This is just downright scary shit…


      Some people in high up places better get their heads out of their asses pretty damn quick, or it’s going to get seriously ugly.

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      James Smith says:

      I defer to you on BC as I don’t live there. But please take a look at my post, I live in the 905, and work all over southern Ontario, 416 & the SW. As someone who knocks on lots of doors in federal, provincial & municipal elections, let me tell you this will not be pretty for the CPC in these areas. My hunch is the 905 will only elect 4 or so CPC MP’s this time out.
      Fore example Ms Raitt will have a tough time keeping her seat unless the tide is overwhelmingly CPC. Despite our Host’s friendship with Ms Raitt (one CPC MP I don’t mind) there are at least 2 local issues that will hurt her (The Burlington Airpark is a big one) and the demographic shift in her riding and a popular Oakville City Councillor LPC candidate tends to favour the LPC.

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    RJ Carter says:

    Two things strike me in considering all the predictions.

    1. CPC in 3 of the 4 estimates between 50 – 60 seats in Ontario. Seems high to me. Column #1 45 seems more accurate given the current numbers. The CPC is not going to win the province by 20 points again. Where/how do you see 60 seats Warren?

    2. The disparity in the Quebec estimates between the NDP and LPC. Virutually no agreement between predictors. Maybe this election will be won or lost in Quebec by the LPC?

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      Warren says:

      Libs take TO, CPC take 905, rest of province with smattering of LPC and NDP here and there (Windsor, Ottawa).

      Mulcair has been ahead in Quebec among francophones and off the Island for some time. That means seats.

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    Kaiser Helmets 'n Motorbikes says:

    Jesus T’s Achilles heel is the fact that unlike our Yankee cousins, Canada already has a dynastic family, they’re called the Windsors, and they are very, very good at crushing the competition.

    Let’s face facts, Jesus T is on top of the big red machine for one reason, and one reason only. We all know it’s his name, not his intelligence, not his leadership skills (because he doesn’t have any), and not his intellect (he is his mother’s son).

    The reality is that the voter knows and the voter will take a pass on the second coming of another dynastic wannabe family.

    Try as they might, no party can insult the integrity of the voter and expect to get away with it. Pundits and political insiders may assume the voter can be manipulated, misinformed, and molded into a decision. The reality is that the smarted person in the room, the one who is really doing the manipulating, is not the politician, not the war room chief, not even the lowly reporter; it’s the voter.

    S/he’s in charge of every step, silently waiting to smack down any so called leader who dares to step out of line. Tim Hudak learned that lesson the hard way last year, and Jesus T is going to learn it this year. The second the voter senses blood, it’s already over.

    Jesus T is clearly starting to get his feet wet, only a matter of time now until he needs a life preserver to stay afloat.

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      Warren says:

      Jesus T?

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        Scotian says:

        I’d say given context the latest nickname for Trudeau, you know as in Trudeau the messiah/saviour, another way I’ve seen Trudeau referred to by some critics. What is it with so many people that prefer to use nicknames instead of formal names of those they are talking about? It can get a little irksome I find.

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          lance says:

          I dunno, maybe it’s a ‘Tea-party Tim’ thing.

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            Scotian says:


            On this I am equal opportunity, I’m just not fond of derogatory nicknames in general where politicians, especially leaders are concerned. I’ll admit I’m not an absolute purist about it, but I do so very rarely on those few times I do. I prefer to simply use last names for identification purposes, as I’m sure you’ve seen me do at this site. I just don’t care for the way it tends to cheapen conversation.

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        edward nuff says:

        he’s a well known rapper who met an untimely end Warren. pay attention. many books have been written about the guy.

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        Kaiser Helmets 'n Motorbikes says:

        I think his real name is Chauncey Gardiner, but he prefers Jesus T, who wouldn’t?

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    James Smith says:

    If this turns into a grind then yes, most of the predictions are about right.

    If Mr T has a good campaign or we hear more Duffy kinda stuff prior to the campaign, Quebecers, 905ers & perhaps BC will blow with the wind bringing the Grits more seats.

    Like the provincial election in Ontario in 2014, 905 will not be the happy home for the CPC is was in 2011 where many identified 905 Liberals voted CPC due to the NDP surge.

    Guelph, K&W, London, & Windsor; voters in these towns voted against the OLP in 2014 due to windmills & Gasplants. These cities have been hit by job losses and that will hurt CPC and help either the LPC or the NDP. The Grits will do much better in SW Ontario’s cities.

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      Michael says:


      The OLP did alright in Kitchener, Guelph and Cambridge. Prior Kathryn McGarry Cambridge had not elected a Liberal in 72 years. But then cities are really closer to the GTA than they are to SW Ontario. Where the Liberals got really got hammered was in rural Ontario.

      When the 2015 federal election is over, I think you will see that ridings that have Liberal MPPs will have Liberal MPs. Ridings that have PC MPPs, will have Conservative MPs. However, I do think that the federal Liberals maybe able to pick up some of the provincial NDP seats in Windsor, Sudbury and Hamilton.

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    justin says:

    What about the north – they have 3 seats which could make a difference!

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    Ronald O'Dowd says:


    I expect Justin to be consistent right into the final days of the campaign. He will continue to make an occasional unforced error. The other parties will try for forced errors on his part.

    But none of that really matters. If Justin holds a few point lead right until the election, it’s a Liberal minority. If he breaks out in the second week of the campaign, as I expect, we’re looking at a Liberal majority government.

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    Matt from Ottawa says:

    Honestly, I think it will be an interesting election. One factor that isnt talked about much is the Ontario trend. Generally, Ontario likes to have a balance of power between the Federal and Provincial governments. I think with Wynne and Trudeau campaigning together may play a factor in several ridings. That being said, I think there may be a surprisingly large NDP showing in Ontario for those who dont like either Harper or Trudeau.

    Personally speaking, im a 32 year old swing voter, ive voted generally both for the Liberals and CPC. Personally though I am not a fan of Trudeau or his brain trust (Gerald Butts) I find theres a level of arrogance they have. That being said, had Marc Garneau had won the leadership, I wouldve voted LPC in an instant. But I personally dont care for Trudeau, he reminds me too much of George Bush Jr and is just too daft to be PM in my opinion. That being said, ill probably vote for CPC or NDP

    Sorry to rant, but I think that the LPC will definitley gain some seats, but I dont think it will be as easy as they think it will be.

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      James Smith says:

      I get that you don’t care for Mr T, people vote with their guts not their brains. I have to say, I’ve never understood the move from CPC to NDP. Not to start an argument, but to me it seems to confirm voting choice gets clothed in rational garments but is really an emotional exercise.

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    Liam Young says:

    Harper will stay on and he’ll win. He won’t resign and he’ll be smug as ever.
    And the left / centre won’t get its act together and we’ll all suffer for it.

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    EB says:

    I will continue to hold to the opinion that opposition parties do not win elections, governments lose them.

    If voters can be convinced that they should be mad at the government, IE the Duffy / Senate / any number of really stupid things this government as done, and Can get continuous ink/airplay in the run-up to an election, the Conservatives will be in trouble.

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    gyor says:

    I keep my eye on fundamentals like organization and character. People make a mistake about counting out Mulcair for Prime Minister.

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    MississaugaPeter says:

    I hate to say it but you are overestimating the competence of Trudeau’s circle. My prediction is that Trudeau over performs, his entourage under performs. The best they can do with all the Harper crap right now is a tie?

    When the election is called and decisions need to be made quickly and correctly, I would take the NDP and Conservative war rooms. Unless they add most of Wynne’s team soon, like Lopinski, at the highest ranks, they will be lucky to even hit triple digits.

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    ajaykumar says:

    The “plan” of Team Trudeau was never to win the government in one election, it was first to overtake the NDP and then form government in the second election (in 2016-17). There is still time, and right now it looks like the CPC or LPC can win a minority. If the CPC wins a minority, there will not be a Liberal coalition with Mulcair, simply because he is angry all the time. Trudeau and Mulcair will be fighting over where to go for lunch, and whether to get extra ketchup.By 2017, The CPC would have been in power for a long time and voters perceptions of endless wars will be changed. If Harper wins a majority, then a merger with the NDP will be inevitable, but Trudeau will have to resign.

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      MississaugaPeter says:

      That was not the line when Team Trudeau was way ahead of Harper.

      Now that they have showed their mediocrity/incompetence they are already preparing us to have to endure another four years of their incompetence?

      Lose to much-flawed and much-scandalized Harper, means most of Team Trudeau will have had multiple election defeats under their belt. Experience in losing should not be rewarded with a third or fourth attempt at the crown.

      Team Trudeau has maligned many older Liberals and if they lose, they better go find another Party to sink.

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        Gayle says:

        I’m pretty sure that’s always been the plan, but no political leadership candidate is going to run on “pick me, and I will return us to Official Opposition status”!

        Winning even a minority government will mean governing with a huge number of rookie MPs. Returning the party to Official Opposition, hopefully but not necessarily with a minority CPC government, will be enough to solidify Trudeau’s position as leader, and will buy time to get the new MPs more experience before they form government. Personally, I believe Trudeau will struggle if he wins government with a bunch if rookie MPs, and if I were a part of his team I’d be trying to prevent that.

        I certainly am amused by the conservatives here who think Trudeau is a failure, and people will “wise up”. They ignore the fact the LPC was on the brink of oblivion before he took the reins. He saved the party. He’s not going anywhere.

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          Scotian says:


          Yes, that is something I also find hard to understand. It shows that Trudeau has some needed leadership skills. Namely he brought back from the brink of extinction the Liberal brand. Now that one might argue took mostly his name, and I’m sure his critics will do just that. However, he also revamped fundamentally their fundraising structure into one that WORKS, something neither predecessor managed (Dion, Ignatief during the same period of time). He also worked to rebuild the election and constituency machinery of the Libs across the country into something ready to fight to government against the CPC on something like equal terms again (and he did these things FIRST, showing priority planning good sense/judgment), and look at the amount of contested hard fought for nominations were have seen there, the Libs by far and away are having the most sought out nominations of all the parties running, and that is a MASSIVE and completely unforeseen reality from 2011. For all the news making constituency fights there have been far more that ran smoothly without problem yet were still strongly contested, which again, given the state of the party after 2011 is near short of a true miracle on earth.

          All of this came about through hard work and LEADERSHIP by the party leader, these are things that are part of his job, and while they may not be sexy and front office they are substantive and needed for any party leader to show first and foremost to their own that they are competent to follow. Andrea Horwath in Ontario failed this test of leadership massively for example in the last Ontario election by not being ready to run a campaign despite being in a minority government situation, a basic leadership requirement for any party leader in such a context.

          Now of course his detractors will claim this was the work of those around Trudeau, his “puppetmasters” as they see them, and while I disagree with the puppetmasters element it is likely fair to point to those around him as part of how he got this done. Which in turn shows that he can build and then lead a competent team, take and use competent advice, and REBUILD, not just run a national organization successfully. All of these are traits you WANT in a choice for PM of Canada, and are proof of real leadership ability. I personally have been of the view that the main reason the attacks on Trudeau on not being a leader, not having what it takes, fail so badly in the end is because whether people think consciously or not about it they recognize that to take the Libs from where they were when he announced his nomination to where they have been since he became leader requires real leadership skills/chops. When I say where they are today, I do not simply mean the polls, I mean financially, I mean as I said with a national election machinery they have not had in a decade, I mean in the massive recruitment of both new members and vigorous candidate nomination fights.

          Trudeau is still having growing pains to be sure, but he has already come a long way from when he first threw his hat into the leadership ring, and I just do not see the Libs dumping him after the next election whether they make government or Official Opposition (and I believe those are the two places they will end up in, I think the NDP simply cannot hold what they have, and clearly are not where the anti-Harper vote has been drawn to, not to mention the unwillingness of so many swing center-right voters to go there as 2011 showed). Trudeau is many things so far, but a “failure”, well only in the minds of his detractors, to everyone else, whether they support him or not for PM, they see someone that took a party one step away from death and not expected to be a serious contender for government for a generation and several elections at the minimum to being not just seen as a viable party again but viable for government to bordering on majority government within one election of that near death experience. How ANYONE can objectively call that a failure, regardless of their personal thoughts about Trudeau and his fitness for PM at the moment and still claim to be concerned with objective facts/truth/reality, well…*shrug*, the proof is in the pudding as the expression goes.

          It says something about how serious a threat Trudeau clearly is that they cannot give him any of this clear due, nor even admit it to themselves if that is where it starts with them as opposed to simply denying it publicly. I have my own concerns about Trudeau, but that he is not capable of running a solid team as PM, that is not one of them, and to your point about an inexperienced caucus, he still has some legacy MPs from their last stint in government and a lot of institutional experience, so they can draw on that if they should end up in majority, but I do think you are correct that the original game-plan was first LOO/minority PM then majority PM. I do not think even they (Trudeau and his core people) saw the level of success they have had to date happening so swiftly once he became leader, so it was the reasonable way to approach his party leadership at the outset, but events have clearly overtaken that and now he may get there in one election. Until the election though we will not know of course, but to not acknowledge that he is a real contender, that if he hasn’t flailed apart by now it is unlikely to happen in that election, well, I think those expecting such will be in for a rude awakening at the end of the next election.

          Trudeau has proven he has real leadership ability, the truth is simply undeniable when you look at the Libs today versus the Libs after the 2011 election. That is hard cold reality, and for those unable to see it, or worse unwilling to admit to it, well it just goes to show their inability to face reality or worse their inability to acknowledge publicly what they know privately. Whether it is enough to take him to the PM’s chair right away in the next election only the next election will prove that, but to not accept that he is a real contender, to believe that he has to suddenly disintegrate in the election campaign or in the leaders debate, that is clearly wishful thinking. He clearly has made gaffes, if less than his critics believe judging by how the wider public reacted versus the politically “informed”, but he has held his own to date, and to think that suddenly he falls apart in an election, well there is not the realistic basis to think so, and if he does not (as I expect) then the low expectations created by those same foes/critics will make him look that much stronger. This is truly doubling down on that bet, and I think in the end it will prove to be a loser bet.

          Sorry Gayle, hadn’t meant to go on quite so much off your comment, but this whole Trudeau isn’t a leader, is a loser, etc, theme/meme his critics on both wings like to put out simply doesn’t have any real/serious basis in objective reality to date, nor that the Libs will dump him in the next election if he only makes Loo. As well, that your point about what the original fame-plan was when he first ran to become leader is also what was being said back at the time, because back then no one thought the Libs could come back so far so fast within a few years from 2011 to 2015.

          To have expected what we have actually seen would have been sheer insanity, I know I never thought the Libs could do this much this well this soon, and I am certain that was the few of most political observers whatever their flavours, including those around Trudeau and Trudeau himself. He has had a level of success both internally in his party leadership and in his wider appeal to the Canadian public that is quite frankly phenomenal. Whether it is enough to make him a PM right off the bat, as I said only an election will prove that, but that he isn’t clearly in the running, well only a reality denier can say that, and in the end that is the strongest proof of all regarding his leadership ability given the starting point.

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            Warren says:

            Let’s keep it under a million words, please, folks

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            mississaugapeter says:


            There is already a large bastion of apologists for the failure of defeating a much-scandalized prime minister.

            Team Trudeau: Gunning for 2019 because we are too incompetent to win in 2015.


            Team Trudeau: Gunning for 2019 because we can’t defeat Harper now and hopefully by that time he will have retired.

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    George says:

    I think the CPC may eke out a majority. While there is appetite for change, there’s a lot of stuff in the papers today that don’t play into JT’s hands and ultimately people will choose to go with the “devil they know”.

    I might sit this one out. Disgusted with the CPC, won’t vote NDP on principle and can’t imagine voting for Trudeau. If Garneau was LPC leader I would be inclined to vote Liberal.

    I think a minority might be a good thing, we need some debate and collaboration instead of unilateral positioning.

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      Scotian says:

      However, if Garneau had won how likely is that the Libs would be where they are today? Would Garneau have had the same success in revamping the Lib fundraising machinery? Would Garneau have had the same ability to attract new members (clearly not, his leadership drive numbers make that point rather painfully obvious) to the Libs? Would Garneau have been able to raise the media profile of the third party Libs anywhere near as much as happened under Trudeau? Would Garneau have been able to rebuild the grassroots infrastructure of the Lib party machinery across the nation? Would the Libs have had the same degree of by-election successes they have had under Garneau? To all of these questions I would submit the answer ranges from flat out no to not as well and not as well likely by significant margins.

      Look, I respect Garneau, think he will make a wonderful foreign minister in a Lib government and be a good deputy PM. He for all his strengths though clearly lacked that spark needed by a party leader, especially in a leader trying to resurrect a party that just missed oblivion in the last election and had clearly been massively damaged over the past decade. I find this way of attacking Trudeau’s leadership by pining away for Garneau and bemoaning his failure to win more than a little suspect at this point, and more than a little disingenuous.

      As to going with “the devil they know”, Martin assumed that in 2006, tell me again how that worked out for him. Elections matter, how long a government has been in office matters, and how they have governed matters. The biggest problem for Harper is that he has governed only for his base, the rest of us have all been shown we matter not at all to him, and that sort of thing always comes back to haunt you eventually, and this election is clearly a real chance for that to happen.

      Normally I would agree that a minority would be a good outcome, except I fear Harper pulling a Constitutional Crisis to maintain power in the event of a minority, he clearly was willing to risk in 2008 and he had far less to lose then than he does now, so a majority would prevent that from happening and would remove this stain from our national honour from power. Besides, a Trudeau majority would be the most potent salt to rub in Harper’s wound, and given all he has done to damage this nation and his nature that kind of repudiation and salt is the least he is due.

      Oh, and for the record, I don’t feel that way about most conservatives, Harper is something of a special case and has been since before he became a PM for me, I do not see him as rooted in Canadian conservative thought for reasons I’ve written on many times in many places over the years, so understand that this is about him, not about the brand of political thought he claims to be the representative of. He may be the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, but he is no true Canadian conservative. His record in government more than clearly proves that.

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        mississaugapeter says:

        Scotian, a lot of conjecture there buddy on Garneau.

        Like George, there are a lot of folks out there who would have voted for him if he was leader and will not vote Liberal because Trudeau is.

        Unfortunately, the only direction Trudeau can go in an election is down. Like the Liberal leaders before him, he is not going to win over any additional NDP or Conservatives in an election.

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          Scotian says:


          Yes, there is, but Garneau’s serious inability to compete in signing up members and supporters for the leadership race is not conjecture, and it is where the rubber met the road after all. Garneau simply failed to be able to compete against Trudeau there, no-one was able to, and based on that a lot of the rest of the conjecture is not all that unreasonable. If he couldn’t manage to do that well there then he clearly lacked something important.

          Look, I’m not trying to run Garneau down as a person or a politician, but the idea that Garneau would have had the same star power as Justin Trudeau is clearly a stretch. If Garneau had been elected leader I really doubt the Libs would be where they are today, it really is that simple. Garneau doesn’t inspire the way Trudeau clearly does, and Trudeau clearly does inspire, because it is his party that has been getting the massive recruitment numbers in new members, new donators, and candidates wanting to run for the him and the Libs.

          I’ve heard/seen very few people use the “if only Garneau had won” argument, and a lot of the time I do see it it comes from those that were likely leaning CPC to start with. Trudeau has an appeal that transcends one wing, and that is important for a centrist based party like the Libs. So I stand behind my conjecture as being a reasonable piece of speculation given what can be based on actual hard evidence, and that leadership run again cannot be overstated in what it showed about Garneau’s ability to recruit and inspire new people to sign onto the Libs at that time. Trudeau outclassed EVERYONE by a massive degree, that simply is the reality.

          Is Garneau a good substantive policy heavy politician? Of course he is. Is he a heavy intellect, again of course he is. Is that though the primary qualifications for what makes a good party leader, especially for a party in the situation the Libs were, well ask Dion and Ignatief that question. Trudeau brings a magic touch that for all his faults is a powerful attractor in politics, and it is clearly that feature of his that is what his foes most fear, and why they are so desperate to disparage him at any and every opportunity. Garneau lacks that, and therefore it is not unreasonable to speculate as I have given what hard facts we do know. Keep in mind that Trudeau’s ability to recruit new members is also underpinning a significant portion of the increased fundraising the Libs have too, so again, by what hard metrics one has to work with I would suggest that my conjecture is reasonably based.

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          Gayle says:

          What is not conjecture is that a lot of people wrote the LPC off after 2011, and 4 years later they are considered a serious contender for government. In 2011 membership was dwindling, and fundraising even more so. Candidates were being appointed because no one wanted to compete for the right to run as a liberal.

          Now, as we all know, things are different.

          A lot of people on these boards assert they would have voted for Garneau, but won’t for Trudeau. I remember people making those claims about Ignatieff over Dion too, and we all know what happened there.

          It is irrelevant if people would have voted for a Garneau lead LPC, because no such entity exists. We know a lot of people support the Trudeau led LPC because they are joining, and volunteering, and donating in numbers we have not seen in a lo,g time.

          Trudeau was clearly the right choice, and he has clearly proven that.

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            George says:

            He will have proven he was the right choice if the Libs win a majority. Anything less would be a failure.

            I get the points being raised about the Garneau vs. Trudeau comment – especially as it pertains to former CPC members like myself, it’s easy to say we’ll do something and not do it. In my case, I’m sincere. When the LPC leadership race was on, I was talking to a friend of mine who was in the inner-circle in Dion’s campaign and told her that if the LPC brought Garneau in, I would vote for them.

            Now, does that matter in the big picture? Maybe, maybe not. Yes, JT has “star power” and the LPC has raised a lot of money, but as time has passed since his election as leader, momentum is fading.

            I think a guy like Garneau, (if he had a GREAT team behind him) could have pulled the ol’ “Tortoise and the Hare”.

            That said, you’re right. No such entity exists. Which means that I, and others like me – disgruntled fiscally conservative socially liberal types – have nobody to vote for that they feel can credibly run the country.

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    Peter Jay says:

    Liberals will get 1/3 of seats in BC? Ha, ha. Seems every time before the election writ actually drops, Libs get all excited by polling in BC. I don’t know, maybe people get confused by BC Libs vs Libs in the poll question?

    Then the voting comes in and they’re 3rd or 4th nearly everywhere across the province. You need more than a pretty face. There’s no real base, no ground organization, no volunteers. The NDP and Cons have true believers, Libs have none — just opportunists running for MP and hoping to luck out.

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    Bill says:

    Sad to say, it will be a CPC minority.

    But the good news is that Harpo don’t do minority anymore so he’ll prob step down soon afterwards to spend more time with family ….or scaring kittens.

    Or both.

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      Warren says:

      Agree. CPC minority means Harper goes. But I don’t just assume that his replacement would squander it, as Campbell did.

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    William says:

    This predictions today are all moot, as the numbers are still incredibly fluid towards the Liberals. No Quebec-only polls (CROP seems to have dropped off the map since their Papineau fiasco), and there is a serious underestimation of Liberal votes in Quebec post-TLMP (see Chicoutimi). While I am not as pro-40 seats in Quebec as our host is, Thursday will give us probably the last best snapshot of who will win, but Port Hope (in a Conservative non-Toronto riding) having to close its downtown core to handle the Trudeau rally, and Owen Sound being in play is per Environics, IMO, a sign of more things to come.

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    Todd Robdon says:

    If the Jays win tonight – they play Monday. That’s gotta factor into the soft vote, no? I’d expect an audience of at least 4 million viewers who might have to chose between a couch and a ball game or standing in line to vote.

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    Mark says:

    I seriously question your Quebec projection for the Liberals. 40 seats? The Liberal vote is so wasted in Montreal, and they lack a good riding base in so many Francophone ridings, that I can’t see them winning more than 25. However, for them to win 25, after being written off in much of Quebec back in February, would be a significant accomplishment. I’m not Conservative, but I think we may still be underestimated how well Cons get their vote out, how little their core supporters ever move anywhere else, and the shenanigans we’ll probably see from Harper and the gang over the next few days.

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