02.23.2015 11:24 AM

Yikes: check out the Ontario numbers (updated)

AbacusFeb20

42 for the Cons, 34 for the Grits. Hmm.

Looks like the CPC Quebec surge isn’t a myth, after all. Has happened.  Wow.

All weird, IMHO, when you look at “direction of the country” finding.

More here.

What’s your take, Dear Reader?

UPDATE: The impressive Dr. Coletto says this chart is the most interesting and, on reflection, he’s right: Harper has erased a 15-point Trudeau lead since August of last year. What’s even more interesting is this: it’s all happened before – ten years ago, when Paul Martin kicked off his Mad As Hell Tour. Even more, more interesting? Some of the folks from 2004-2005 are back running the show in 2015!

55 Comments


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    Al in Cranbrook says:

    The next Liberal/J.T. fan/supporter I meet here in Cranbrook will be the first.

    I wouldn’t bet a plugged nickel on the BC numbers for the Libs being anywhere near realistic. And history regarding mid-term polling in BC over the last several decades will back me up on this.


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      wsam says:

      What happens when Putin buzz-bombs the arctic?

      It is going to happen. The Russians have been doing it to everyone. They will do it to us.

      The Liberals need to start thinking of a response. Something to differentiate themselves from Harper.


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        Ray says:

        Blankets and jackets likely won’t deter Mr. Putin.


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          wsam says:

          Stephen Harper will probably send Putin a link to his instagram account, where the Russian dictator can browse a compilation of Harper’s Arctic photo ops. That should push Putin back onto his heels.


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    Africon says:

    Voters are fickle and many lie to pollsters, I know I do – none of their business.

    Wynn’s recent woes are likely a big factor as are Quebec’s views of the Muslim tendency to be too controlling – my way or the highway = bad memories of Catholic desire to control. Influences from France also a possibility.
    Quebec debt and corruption a factor but not a huge one…… yet.

    Justin can still turn this around and may well be much better off for this little slap and learn to consider unintended consequences of every action and word he utters and watch every word get twisted all over the map before being thrown back in his face.

    Watched a piece yesterday about Ohio Governor, John Kasich – now THAT’S a guy I could vote for – lowered taxes AND produced a surplus.


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      Al in Cranbrook says:

      Saw that piece about Kasich, too. Smart, moderate, and handles himself well.

      Could turn out to be the candidate the Republicans need.


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        davie says:

        Is Kasich a tax and don’t spend conservative?


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          Africon says:

          Don’t know that much about him or how he pulled this off.
          What I do is that ANY family, political or business leader that is incapable of reducing costs by 5% or 10% is no leader.

          Do you really mean to tell me that living beyond one’s means is a worthwhile way to live ones life?
          Do you really believe that our government paying out approx $30B per year in interest charges is really good for the people of Canada ?
          Try living in Zimbabwe, Greece or Venezuela and then come tell us all about it – I have.


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    MC says:

    Any day before election day is too early to draw conclusions, but my thoughts are these: it is not surprising that Canadians will increasingly oppose Trudeau at the same time as they increasingly doubt the merits of Conservative policies; the reason for both trends, I presume (and hope), is increased attention and critical thought.

    I expect a good number of Canadians believe (likely correctly) that in regard to many fundamentals of government, the Liberal and Conservative parties are two sides of the same coin, despite the objective differences between them in regard to philosophy and policy. And, as one friend said (who is very progressive, but says he would never vote for Trudeau), “I will likely just vote for the government that is least likely to do me harm.” In that regard, I suspect most Canadians will prefer a stable, smart government to a wingin’-it “hip” one, particularly when the former handles the economy well and the latter is still trying to figure out how to tie its economic shoe-laces.

    In Ontario, the conduct of the provincial government isn’t helping Trudeau’s cause either. People hated what Hudak represented; they don’t necessarily like what Wynne delivers.


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    Pat says:

    It all jives very neatly with the inability of an adoring media to sustain the myth the dauphin is the second coming of the king.


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    ajay kumar says:

    The root cause of why the liberals are in third place is that they change their leaders too quickly. Had Paul Martin remained leader, we would have won a majority in 2008. We elected Dion, who couldn’t speak English well enough, and was going to stop global warming on his own, like superman. Then came Hurricane Ignatieff. I never understood the need to bring a leader from Harvard. The 15 point lead Trudeau had was because of how freaked-out Ontario was of team Hudak in the summer. If Trudeau brings us back to official opposition, we will be satisfied. Expectations are very low of Trudeau, if he remembers to wear a tie during the campaign, he will win big. He will definitely lose the debate, but so did Obama in 2012. Attack ads in the campaign wont work because Canadians are very opinionated about Trudeau already. I cant think of a leader who was so well known before the campaign.


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    dg says:

    It is about the middle class stupid.

    Or it was supposed to be.

    When JT started this he took and owned the “i am the middle class champion” ground. It was good. But since then there has been continuous drift. No commitments for the MC (while the tories loot bag keeps growing – income splitting is about vote splitting btw – hard to put money in MC voter pocket and expect them to vote against that – especially where we haven’t explained where our goodies would go), a strange focus on the military (do the numbers really show tories moving off SH because we have former top brass military in the “team” – i would take the rank and file soldiers any day for a campaign btw – , and some sort of drive to crack Alberta or right the wrongs of liberals past (which we don’t need to win).

    I can only assume this is a ‘keep the powder dry’ strategy, but it is looking like a strategy that is confirming the groundwork the tories laid a couple years ago with the initial attack ads – which ppl said were bad for the tories, and which i reminded them were not about then, but about now. I also dont like the keep the powder dry strategy because it boxes us out — see childcare for example, we have nowhere to go. It also assumes that voters make up their mind on basis of good policy in an election campaign … which, well you be the judge.

    I once had someone in the circle explain to me that “good policy is good politics”. Sadly, I never thought that was correct. I think good politics is a good policy … if you want change.

    I have hope, but the window is closing. Wish we had put our foot on the pc throat when we had the chance a year or so ago, we might then have been just counting the days today.


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    Lance says:

    …………..”we would have won a majority in 2008.”

    So he gets a minority in 2004, gets defeated in 2006, and you say he could have received a majority in 2008?!

    Yeah……okay, LOL


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    Kelly says:

    I’ve said it before. The NDP are going to get an extra 2 million votes from people who make less than $30,000 a year and who have never voted before in their lives. They don’t participate in polls and they will make mincemeat of the charted numbers. The housewives of Vancouver don’t need help from Harper. Single moms from the West side of Saskatoon do. Hold onto your hats. We live on stolen land and we will get a reminder of that come election night. The crabby old uncles who vote con won’t like it one single bit but tough.


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      davie says:

      Ah, Kelly, were it so…I got a lift when I saw your previous post of this, and this one gives me a lift too…but only momentarily. I fear the phony terrorism stuff is working and the older of our fellow Canadians are really buying into the hate Russia stuff. This BillC 51 (the Kinder Morgan bill), along with the voter suppression moves, will dampen ever more any voice of dissent in this country, especially anything to do with environment, oceans, and community based democracy . We are heading into a dark time pal, and our fellow Canadians are salivating on cue.


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      Peter says:

      Kelly. as designated spokesperson for the crabby old uncles demographic, I would like to point out that we were once all virile, idealistic types who believed in an inevitable march to an NDP government once we got rid of our crabby old uncles. Since those exciting days long ago, we have learned there are three constants in life: death, taxes and the NDP around 20%.


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    Jeff says:

    The turning point happened on this very website when after over a year of strong polling you finally wrote an article “Trudeau might actually be for Real”, or some such thing.

    He started slipping ever since.


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      Warren says:

      I have that effect. I can be rented out for bar mitzvahs as well.


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      Craig says:

      Don’t forget that there was the terrorist attack on Parliament Hill in the fall. That gave Harper a bump that wiped out Trudeau’s advantage. That was unexpected and isn’t JT’s fault. Incumbent leaders get bumps during terrorist attacks. It’s unreasonable for people to expect Trudeau to be ahead of an incumbent PM by large margins at a time like this. Harper has gotten a smaller bump than a lot of other leaders. George W. Bush got a much bigger one and Hollande of France just got a large one as well. Meanwhile, Trudeau has kept the Liberals pretty competitive with the Conservatives.


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    MississaugaPeter says:

    Ontario’s Liberal numbers are headed further down due to Wynne’s omnibus internet/sex ed curriculum introduction today. (Really folks, why are the dangers of the Internet (“online safety” according to the Ministry of Education) now part of the Physical Education curriculum?)

    A lot of the work Trudeau has done with the Muslim community (and other first generation immigrants) is kaput today. The swing of a further 3%-5% from the Liberals to the Conservatives or to stay-at-home-on-election-day has just given the Conservatives another 10 close Ontario ridings.


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    Bill Templeman says:

    These numbers look like 4 more years of the Harperities, albeit in a minority gov’t.


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    James Smith says:

    Going to be interesting.
    When does Mr Duffy get his day in court; April or May sometime?


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    Derek Pearce says:

    Well these #s combined with the upcoming Duffy trial have me further convinced an election will be called the day after the budget is introduced.


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    Windsurfer says:

    Without even reading the previous responses, “put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye.”

    Now I’ll read the previous ones.

    Sorry, folks, I’m going to have to sign off from any further political discussion or comments, though I will continue to read Warren and also Progressive Bloggers (daily).

    O Canada, I stand and weep for thee.


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    Jacob Trouba says:

    I don’t get it, while the Cons haven’t done anything grotesque, the Liberals should be able to win a minority easily, seems like utter incompetence, hoping the campaign is run better!


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    Alim Jiwa says:

    Abacus itself said in its write-up for this poll that it has seen a lot of back and forth volatility in Liberal numbers in Ontario, and referenced unpublished polls it has been doing in between the ones it has released as justification for that. It’s January published poll had more favourable results for the Liberals in Ontario (ahead by 4, if I recall). EKOS has tended to have the Cons and Libs within 5 points of each other in its weekly releases. My read is Ontario is a horse race.


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    !o! says:

    The direction of the country is interesting, and at odds with what other pollsters find. Ekos also maintains a question about direction of the country, which they include in every national poll. Their graph looks a lot different, in fact, the trend line is almost exactly the opposite of what Abacus is reporting, and instead of a 19% bias in favour of ‘right direction’, it reports a 4% bias in favour of ‘wrong direction’.

    http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_february_20_2015.pdf (page 8, note that this graph has 7 years of data whereas Abacus reports on a single year, so calibrate your mental pictures accordingly)


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    terence quinn says:

    If all harper can do after three months of pounding fear into Canadians over security is get into a virtual tie I would think he is still in trouble because this will not be top of mind come election day. He will of course produce his “balanced budget” with lots of holes, lies and into a slowing economy. That’s where the liberals can shine with a very progressive “red book” to counter the promises already made by the cons.


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    kaiser helmets and motobikes says:

    The election question is simple.

    Do you believe Jesus Trudeau can effectively lead Canada in a time of existential terror crisis and manage our fragile economy while not rolling over for the big spending premiers and their powerful public sector union bosses.

    Yes or No.

    Harper wynnes in a landslide. Jesus takes the maritimes because the region has spend thirty years self selecting for idiots and driving anyone who can think down the road.


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    socks clinton says:

    Think of the “Elvis” factor. A recent poll found out 7% of Americans still believe that Elvis is still alive which is far more than who’ll vote for the Green Party outside British Columbia. Over twenty years ago it was 16% and Mulroney’s PCs couldn’t even match that and nearly got wiped off the electoral map.


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    Bill says:

    I’m sticking with my call of a CPC minority….which will be a good thing.

    CPC will be handcuffed, Harper will step down, JT gets more time to earn some gravitas.


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      Warren says:

      I think that’s exactly what will happen, too – unless:

      1. Security issue becomes even bigger (likely)
      2. Trudeau has a biggish gaffe in the writ (likely)
      3. NDP surprise with effective campaign (likely)

      …in which case a narrow CPC majority is possible.


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        MississaugaPeter says:

        Kills me how all these folks who claim to be so anti-Harper, anti-Conservative, are so feeble minded that they cannot 1. Unite or 2. Push for Proportional Representation.

        I guess it is all for show. And they are only in it for themselves.


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          doconnor says:

          The NDP pushes for Proportional Representation all the time. It’s the Liberals who stand in their way.


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            GB says:

            The NDP has been in power in Manitoba and Saskatchewan for much of the last 50 years. NDP provincial and federal membership is the same. These are the same people. Neither province with years after years of NDP majorities have moved an inch towards PR. The NDP might talk about PR, but when they have had the authority and power to do anything about it — nothing.


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    wsam says:

    A Conservative minority would be really great for the kind of people who like to snipe at government from comment sections!


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      doconnor says:

      It’s also great for opposition MPs who have the constitutional responsibility to hold the government to account.


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        wsam says:

        I disagree. I think it is better for the online comment board community.


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          doconnor says:

          It’s better for the online comment board community because in a minority Parliament can apply its wide ranging powers to investigate the government which provides more fodder for the online comment board community. The main beneficiaries are the opposition MPs who wield that power.


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            wsam says:

            Comment section wins!


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    Kordunas says:

    The number that interests me is the “Second Generation Immigrant” cohort numbers. They seem to be the strongest grouping for Harper and stand out. Immigrants themselves lean towards Trudeau but their kids lean towards Harper.

    Why is that? Only thing I can guess is that Second Gens tend to also have the highest incomes…


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      MississaugaPeter says:

      Where are you getting the idea that first generation immigrant’s lean towards Trudeau.

      First generation immigrants tend to hold more traditional views. Thus, more vote centre-right than centre-left. See the devastating Liberal loss of the 905 in 2011. However …

      As a first generation immigrant myself, I know that the loyalty sometime does carry over to the Party in power when we arrived. In my case, the Liberals (1969).


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        Kordunas says:

        It’s in the survey. Scroll down.


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          MississaugaPeter says:

          Sorry, if I missed it but can’t find. Which page? Quote? Did search on immigrant, generation, cohort.


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    John Matheson says:

    When the control of political parties goes out of the hands of politicians and their staffers and into slimy little consulting corporations you know it is simply downhill from there. You get some partisan hack on CBC News Network and it does not say Jane Smith LIBERAL but Jane Smith XYZ STRATEGIES INC. All this corporate self-dealing and influence peddling started under Paul Martin.


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    Sean Fordyce says:

    We are nowhere close to being in a position to see what the election will be like in spite of the jockeying we see now. A week into the campaign and we will start to get an idea about who is connecting, where the debate is going and what people are saying. Only by the time the debate is over will we have a reliable idea of what the ballot questions may be.

    The Ontario numbers may now be coloured by provincial factors but that will change in the opening days of a campaign.

    Both the Liberals and the NDP will go after Harper and there is so much to remind voters of.

    All three parties are incredibly vulnerable each for different reasons.

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