03.13.2015 03:18 PM

Ekos: check out BC and Quebec

It’s just one poll, election is far away, blah blah blah. But if those BC and PQ numbers are right, Harper doesn’t have far to go to secure another majority.  Wow. 



69 Comments

  1. davie says:

    My first thought is that if polls keep saying that another 4 years of Conservatives is going to happen, then that info will help Conservatives by reducing voter participation, but I think it will also help Green, by encouraging people to vote in a few more Green MP’s. I notice that 13% for Green in BC, and I wonder what the % might be on the island.

    • Matt says:

      Don’t think so.

      Conservative voters tend to be the most likely to show up election day, at least for federal elections.

    • Matt says:

      Opps.

      Nevermind, I misinterpreted what you were saying.

    • Robin says:

      If polls were reliable Ric McIver would be Mayor of Calgary. Elections matter. And, so does social media in the proficient hands of voters under 30 years old. I know, experienced political pundits, pollsters, and Rhinoceros Party candidates will tell you, under 30 voter participation is abysmal; or it was. Values matter. Harper’s pronouncement regarding a Muslim woman’s right to wear a Naqib when saying her Canadian citizenship oath was a deviously planned political calculation.

      It shamefully panders to the bigots and racists in Quebec, such as, many former members of the Parti Union Nationale and Creditistes in Quebec, as well as, some sovereigntists. It may have resonated with many of then, thereby sending a storm of mocking Tweets through the Twitterverse. It also set a Cheshire cat among the pigeons, so to speak, in the federal NDP Caucus. It is comprised of many sovereigntists with a profound disdain for new Canadians who are resident in Quebec and vote in referendums when the are not Quebecois “pure laine”.

      Too clever by half. Some Quebecers may have expressed unreserved agreement with Harper’s public statement at a Conservative party event in Quebec; however. it won’t be a ballot question. Quebecers follow politics much closer than people in other provinces and they vote for what’s in their best interest. This won’t be a ballot question. A few months of reasonable discussion and debate will evaporate any percieved leads Harper may have apparently attained.

      Voters under 30 years old are stating to participate in elections. The large walls of high rise condo buildings with security codes, a 24 hour concierge, and no land lines, only smart phones. Impenetrable or, put another way, penetration matters. How does a candidate canvass in bock after block of high rise condos and apartment buildings?

      Canada Post Postal Code Drops: step one, Canada Post delivers the flyers; step two, recipient tosses it into recycling in the mail room. However, there are people under 30 years old who are adept at using hand held devices and the technology that provides the access to the products and applications.

      There is a large cohort of young first time voters between the ages of 18 and 30 who will receive a tweet from a friend reminding them to vote..for their candidate, so the tweet recipient brings his or her friends with whom he or she was having coffee with at the time; suddenly, one voter contact results in five votes.

      This poses a problem for Harper since he cannot interfere with thousands of messages via texts, emails, Facebook each day (but not for lack of trying, e.g. Bill C-51). This new voter population may cause the remnants of the old paradigm to be cast finally aside. This is Trudeau’s opportunity and, to a lesser extent, Thomas Mulcair.

      I’ve learned that a country is better to elect an “inexperienced” leader who proposes to take the country in the right direction rather than an “experienced” leader taking the country in the wrong direction (and fear mongering for votes).

      I respect Trudeau because he knows himself well and isn’t averse to admitting weaknesses then venturing out to improve them or enlist the assistance of someone with equal or more intelligence to get the job done. Trudeau collaborates whereas Harper appears to think he’s the smartest guy in the room, or was that a closet?

      The upcoming election will be about values as Canadians. Trudeau personifies Canadian values; whereas, Harper has imported his from Alabama or Georgia, at least, it seems that way.

      If anyone should wear a niqab before going out in public, it is Harper, but he’s shameless.

      • Roney says:

        What is your perception of the fact that Trudeau and Mulcair are from Quebec and Harper is not from Quebec? I suspect that this will be an issue in the next election, for better or worse.

      • cgh says:

        “It shamefully panders to the bigots and racists in Quebec, such as, many former members of the Parti Union Nationale and Creditistes in Quebec, as well as, some sovereigntists.”

        Accusing the voters of being bigots and racists is always a strategy that works well. Good luck with that.

        • Elisabeth Lindsay says:

          Thank you cgh!

        • Gayle says:

          I could be wrong, but I suspect Robin is not engineering the strategy that will be employed by the LPC.

          While I agree this tack by Harper is intended to be attractive to the bigots in Quebec, and, of course, the rest of the country, that hardly means I expect Trudeau and company to actually say that.

          • MississaugaPeter says:

            No, Gayle, I actually fear that s/he is somehow associated with the Trudeau cabal. How do I figure this?

            1. Well written, like all of them. That is one thing that you can not criticize Trudeau’s cabal.

            2. I see their language and thoughts in her comments.

            I.e. “How does a candidate canvass in bock after block of high rise condos and apartment buildings?”

            The same way that you do house to house. By law, anyone canvassing can access any condo or apartment building.

            I.e. “There is a large cohort of young first time voters between the ages of 18 and 30 who will receive a tweet from a friend reminding them to vote..for their candidate, so the tweet recipient brings his or her friends with whom he or she was having coffee with at the time; suddenly, one voter contact results in five votes.”

            The Trudeau cabal’s reliance on the youth vote is ridiculous. Only about 1 in 3 delegates who were eligible to vote for Trudeau in the recent Liberal Leadership vote actually voted for Trudeau. Justin had 215K Twitter followers at that time (571K now), so the one voter contact netting five should have netted over 2M votes. But he couldn’t even get half of his Twitter followers to vote for him. He only got 81,389 votes.

            I.e. “Canada Post Postal Code Drops: step one, Canada Post delivers the flyers; step two, recipient tosses it into recycling in the mail room. However, there are people under 30 years old who are adept at using hand held devices and the technology that provides the access to the products and applications.

            Flyers are dropped just as quickly in apartment buildings as they are in superboxes (where there is a slot for rejected mail or a garbage/recycle bin close by) or at homes (again, garbage/recycle bins close by). What gets dropped faster than flyers? Texts, email, and twitter.

            The comments reveal to me that Robin (and the Trudeau cabal) is relying excessively on social media and the youth to come through for them. Social media is overrated (1/4 of all successful Toronto councillors in October did not even have a website, let alone Twitter), and reliance on a group of folks who historically do not vote, are two serious miscalculations that could very well insure another 4 years of Harper.

          • MississaugaPeter says:

            crap, the 2M should read 1M

            my miscalculation was caught quick and did not cost us 4 more years of Harper

          • MississaugaPeter says:

            Scott, I can’t argue with what you are seeing where you are.

            In my neck of the woods, the 905, which many claim will decide the next election, many older Liberals who I have spoken to and who voted for Wynne, will not be voting for Trudeau (or will not bother to vote at all). Of course, that is today, and that may change tomorrow, but right now many Liberal white hairs here feel taken for granted at best, totally excluded at worst, and are considering other options.

            And some Conservative MPs have reached out to Liberal MPPs and vice versa.

            http://www.bobdelaney.com/feb2013-update/

            Yes, a Liberal MPP with a Conservative MP. Google “Bob Delaney” and “Brad Butt” together for many more examples. Google any Liberal MPP in the GTA and the Conservative MP and you are apt to see a few photo ops together. It works both for the provincial Liberals and federal Conservatives. Everyone knows that in Ontario for the past 75 years, there almost always have been opposing parties in power at Queens Park and the House of Commons.

          • MississaugaPeter says:

            Lot of Blue Liberals out here.

            Various reasons:

            1. Aggressive abortion stance (older religious folks not impressed with aggressive stance Trudeau has taken). Feel one thing to follow the Supreme Court, or appear to waffle like Harper on an issue, but outright aggression to expel your own for what many feel is a personal, moral decision, is making Liberals move to Harper. To me, this could end up being an underlying sleeper issue that could result in a 2%-4% shift away from Liberals (as I have stated here before, I know of many influential folks all over Ontario who were quiet on Wynne so as to not wear out some of their political capital, so it could be directly used against Trudeau because of this issue).

            2. Feel that economically we are safer with Harper (the status quo) than take a chance with Trudeau.

            3. This is not a Blue Liberal issue but is something that is heard often: Feel too much pandering for the Muslim vote. This third point will obviously occur when one group is welcomed aggressively in and the white hairs feel they have been replaced.

            Have not heard of terror or ISIS or senators or C-51 as reasons yet.

            I have recently turned from a Liberal to an Orange Liberal, so the above three points do not apply to me. The reason why is obvious by my replies on this fine website.

          • MississaugaPeter says:

            Scott, if all the anti-abortionists left the Liberals and voted in a greater percentage than the rest of society, the Conservatives would be elected in perpetuity. Many new immigrants are also very strongly against abortion.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Robin,

        Need I remind you that the Union Nationale was last active in provincial politics in 1976. My own father was a consistent UN voter and he was as far from a bigot as I have ever met. The Créditistes disappeared from federal politics three years later. They were perhaps isolationists but certainly not racists, by and large.

  2. Ty says:

    This wouldn’t be a majority. He’d need 4 or 5 more points in Ontario, because the NDP collapse is going to give them a few seats.

  3. terence quinn says:

    You should post the notes as well. Here is note one to the poll:

    First, the new normal of a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals is almost exclusively a product of the terror and security file. The more daunting issues of a stagnant economy, arrested progress, and regime fatigue are lurking in temporary abeyance.

    I think JT changed the conversation and hopefully voter intentions with his direct hit on Harper this week which pretty much everyone agrees has hurt the Cons.

    • ottawacon says:

      Pretty much everyone agrees?!? I have seen far more commentary suggesting Trudeau hurt himself than saying it was a direct hit. It is hard to understand Liberal strategy right now, if anything it was yet another polarizing comment that works better for the NDP than for him.

      • terence quinn says:

        Is that so? Why have the Hapercons acted like the were hit with a bomb. Harper himself made a most stupid statement in the HOC that went viral with lots of vitriol. The direct hit is that The Liberals are now claiming individual rights as their own dogma something the cons thought they easily owned as part of their brand. Even the NDP is scrambling to deal his speech.

    • Mervyn Norton says:

      While my religion compels me to pray for a Harper defeat, I must admit that Jason Kenney said it best this week (from National Post on Friday):

      “Something politically correct Liberals don’t understand, which I do rather profoundly,” Kenney told Maclean’s, “is that the vast majority of new Canadians, including new Canadians of the Muslim faith, believe that there are certain important hallmarks of integration. They don’t believe that multiculturalism should be misconstrued as cultural relativism. They believe that multiculturalism should mean a positive regard for what’s best about people’s cultural and religious antecedents. But it should not mean a completely unquestioning acceptance of every cultural practice, especially those of an abhorrent nature.”

      Kenney continued: “I can tell you that the vast majority of Muslims that I’ve spoken with strongly supported my decision in 2010 to state what I thought was axiomatic that a public citizenship ceremony had to be performed publicly.”

      • Gayle says:

        The problem with the “most Muslims agree with me” argument is that it ignores the fact that in Canada, we do not allow people to dictate the religious practices of others. Catholics do not get to tell Protestants what is “true” Christianity, and Mormons don’t get to tell Baptists, etc etc. I struggle to understand why it is at all relevant what some Muslims say about the practice of others, when we do not put two different Christian sects on TV to argue about their beliefs.

        There is a line to be drawn when religious practices cause harm, such as forced child marriage, but wearing a veil is a choice made by the person wearing it, and that choice does not affect me or anyone else.

  4. Tiger says:

    Harper’s in a position to win a second majority with a strong campaign. He’s been there all year. He’s the most experienced — this’ll be his fifth national campaign as party leader.

    Of course, that means “time for a change” arguments will be out there too.

    No idea how Trudeau and Mulcair are on the trail — no way to know before this fall, as the proof is in actual performance. Should be a fun one!

  5. Windsurfer says:

    I just got back from the ‘C51 Day of Protest’ at Alliston. Grand total of 45 people showed up. If fewer than e.g. 20,000 show up nationally, this will be a bust. If more than e.g. 50,000 show up nationally, this will be a good sign that people are pushed out of their comfort zone, thus ready to resist/get active because they’re outraged.

    • Matt says:

      So, if 20,000 show up nationally, or 0.059% of the country’s population, it’s a bust.

      But if 50,000 show up nationally, or 0.15% of the country’s population, it’s a good sign?

      • Windsurfer says:

        You’re right, I’m delusional. Harper wins a majority. I just looked at multiple of the event photos published by LeadNow and http://www.cbc.ca, etc. Even in my wildest, there might have been 1200 at Nathan Phillips Square. Then, extrapolating what I saw at Ottawa/Parliament Hill, Montréal, Vancouver and all the smaller venues, I might have counted 15,000 people nationally.

        It’s a bust.

        Public apathetic. Doesn’t care.

        Four more years, sorry to tell you. Go back to your caves. Canada becomes 51st state.

        • Curt says:

          What would happen if the Government of Canada did not implement Bill C 51 or something similar and 20 lunatics/ fanatics planned and carried out an obscene terrorist attack? I am of the opinion that the vast majority of Canadians do not care if the Government reads our emails, if it keeps us safe.

        • terence quinn says:

          The CBC article on the protests has nearly 10,000 comments so far since earlier today. Some bust

          • Matt says:

            Is that where we are now? Lokking at the number of comments on a website story to claim these protests were a success???

            Have you read all 10,000? Are the all supportive of the protest/against C-51?

            I’m willing to bet that only about 400 commentors are responsible for the 10,000 posts

        • Al in Cranbrook says:

          I don’t doubt for a minute that most of the protests were organized by pretty much the same group of (professional protester) quasi-communist radicals that also hate pipe lines, the oil sands, any form of education that isn’t paid for by someone else, anything remotely resembling free enterprise, and in general every member of the entire human race that disagrees with them and their warped ideologies. (Of course, now that Sun News is toast, we’ll never know, eh? It’s certainly not like the CBC thinks it’s “news we need to know”.)

          And Canada becomes the 51st state? LOL! I’m 60, and I’m sure I’ve been hearing that one for at least 75 years now!

          Particularly amusing because I suspect Harper could give a rat’s ass if he ever again speaks to that useless flake of a president America has inflicted upon itself…and the rest of the planet to boot!

          • terence quinn says:

            Hey Al, you forgot retards to stay in line with your buddy Matt. Of course I might then assume you mean everyone but you is one.

          • Howard Moon says:

            “Stop, I say stop it boy, you’re doin’ alot of choppin’ but no chips are flyin’ ”

            Foghorn Leghorn

          • Matt says:

            Just look at the pics from the Toronto “protest”. Aside from the predictable and pathetic “Harper worse than Hitler” type signs what do we see? Lots of union flags, Ontario Coalition against poverty’s professional protest crew demanding more housing, lots of signs condemning capitalism and praising socialism, demanding an inquiry into the murdered and missing aboriginal women, the occupy crowd and their crew who never met a protest they didn’t like ect, ect, ect.

            Then of course throw in those who had no idea what they were supposed to be protesting and you’re probably down to 700 to 1000 who were actually protesting against C-51.

          • ben burd says:

            And another ‘fair’, ‘unbiased’ view from the voice of reason in Cranbrook. Al I congratulate you for not slagging Mulcair in that tirade, tired are you today?

  6. Bill says:

    I guess fear does trump hope.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Bill,

      No, manufactured fear trumps rational analysis, which normally leads to a sound political conclusion.

  7. Spike says:

    Between 5 – 13% of Canadians, and averaging 8.8% nationally are bleeding heart, nature-loving people and mostly ex-flower child, white-haired ex-Trudeaumaniacal women in their sixties who are obsessively worried about the environment and human race.

    By voting Green these women are reducing the Liberal vote by 8.8%, because we know that a majority of besotted Canadian women will be voting for their cher Justin.

    So how does Justin convince these Green Grannies they should be voting for him and not LizzieMay? How does he go greener than Green?

  8. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    To me, Ekos is a wash. FPTP provides for a tremendous advantage for the CPC in British Columbia but equally so for the LPC in Quebec.

  9. DonW says:

    Don’t know about these EKOS numbers. ThreeHundredEight.com has Libs @ 33.2%, Cons @ 32.5, NDP @ 21. Their BC & PQ numbers show a slight lead for Libs. Just sayin’

  10. Domenico says:

    “Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders.
    That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked,
    and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the
    country to danger. It works the same in any country.”

    Herman Goering

  11. eric weiss says:

    Funny how polls don’t matter now that le Dauphin isn’t ahead anymore.

  12. eric weiss says:

    BTW some friends and I have shaved our heads to raise money for leukemia research. Three years since my diagnosis, luckily my leukemia is manageable. Others aren’t so lucky. If anybody feels like donating this is my sponsor page.

    http://my.leukaemiafoundation.org.au/b33fsquatch

  13. DonW says:

    Domenico, how about a moratorium on the Nazi references as related to Canada in 2015? I don’t want to see another Harper gov’t, but every time the Nazis are trotted out in comparison to the 2015 Harper Conservatives in Canada, we all lose. And people stop listening…

    • Domenico says:

      Hold it I didn’t compare Harper and the Nazis. All I did was trot out a quote by Herman Goering regarding despicable political tactics while he was on trial in Nuremburg. It was you who made some sort of connection between the political tactics of Herr Harper and the Reichsmarschall. But now that you mention it……….

    • sezme says:

      Of course people get annoyed when every politician one doesn’t like is compared to a Nazi. But! The reason that some comparisons to Nazi tactics are useful at times (as in the above example) is that it illustrates what happens when you take something a little bit bad to its extreme.

      The Nazis were not unique monsters in the history of the world. Sorry, they were just people, extremely evil people. And subsequent generations need to make sure that other people with power don’t start acting like them, because they are a concrete example of where such behaviour can lead.

      So if your political tactics would have been met with approval by the likes of Goering, maybe it’s time to change tack.

  14. davie says:

    I notice that a protest walk in Montreal was declared illegal today.
    We have a small kerfuffle going on here in BC regarding a guy who took a photo while on public land, and near a major oil company facility. The next day, the photographer got a phone call through his daughter’s cell phone, checking on what he was doing. Apparently the RCMP had been sic’d on to him. This suggests to me that he frequent meetings between our security people and the oil industry big shots are reflected by cooperation on the ground. (|His daughter’s cell phone? Even my paranoia can’t help me connect those dots.)

    One of the ways that our leaders and their supporters have defended Bill C51 is by pointing to a clause that says any legal dissent is okay. But I have always found government, especially, this one, a tad whimsical in who they declare to be illegal, or terrorist. A part of the bill says they will interfere with ‘radicalization.’ So, if a fracking hold up is declared illegal (it could happen…it could.), this bill, and a bunch of others would kick in, and there would be a chill on even discussing the fracking issue.

    It is odd to me that conservatives, who, I thought, stood for individual liberty and against expansion of big government, are supporting this expansion of powers for a secretive big government police bureaucracy.

    • Kelly says:

      The Harper government is not a conservative government in the traditional sense of the word, rather it has authoritarian leanings. The sad thing is, the poll illustrated above indicates that they could possibly form a phony majority government without getting a majority of the vote in a single province. Not even Alberta. If the NDP agreed to sit out Ontario and the Liberals agreed to sit out BC and they split the difference in key ridings in the Prairies, Harper would get fired so bad his Hushpuppies would smoke. Unfortunately our fake electoral system simply doesn’t work.

  15. e.a.f. says:

    another 4 years of Harper will put some in jail and some looking for new countries, if we haven’t been deported yet. Now of course polls have been wrong before and lets hope this one is.

  16. MississaugaPeter says:

    This poll is passé.

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-launches-large-scale-military-manoeuvres-in-the-arctic-1.2281388

    Wrote it here many times last year:

    Harper is preparing what I have repeatedly stated would be one of the pillars of their campaign next year: Who do you want protecting Canada’s sovereignty in the North against Putin, Harper or Justin Trudeau?

    http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/11/in-fridays-sun-the-hunted-become-the-hunter/#sthash.as0WFjBE.dpuf

    Slam dunk in 5, 4, 3, 2, …

  17. socks clinton says:

    Why BC? Ontario is the other big swing province that can decide a government majority and despite of Wynne many are not happy with the current Federal conservative government.

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