04.13.2015 05:46 PM

Team Operation Alienation™ will tell themselves “It’s just Ipsos.”

Good luck with that.

37 Comments

  1. Lance says:

    Justin Trudeau tumbles from top pick for prime minister

    “Tumbling”. Interesting adjective they chose for the lead.

    • Dave says:

      Synonym: “plunging”. Usually used when a poll shows the Liberal vote-intent has declined, week-over-week, by an amount less than the margin of error.

  2. Matt says:

    No wonder Team Trudeau has enthusiastically come out in support of adding Ms. May to the debates.

    The more people there are, the less attention and pressure will be on Trudeau.

  3. Matt says:

    “It’s just Ipsos”

    Isn’t Ipsos the official pollster of the Liberal Party? By that I mean the company the Libs use to conduct their polling.

  4. Priyesh says:

    I’m more than a little frustrated about bill C-51. Supporting something just because you’re afraid of your opponents politicizing it will hurt your leadership numbers, 100%. Even if I ignore how much I think the trumped up fear of terrorism is bullshit, Harper ends up looking like more of a leader. And then… so does Mulcair.

    • Africon says:

      I seriously doubt that C-51 was any more than a small part of this trend re JT.
      With the advent of the easy availability of small drones, the entire terrorism equation has now changed.

      Do you think this speech by Hillary will hurt her chances next year?

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/01/12/435624/-A-golden-oldie-Hillary-s-floor-speech-to-invade-Iraq
      Here is the first part of the Floor Speech of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on S.J. Res. 45, A Resolution to Authorize the Use of United States Armed Forces Against Iraq, dated October 10, 2002

      Today we are asked whether to give the President of the United States authority to use force in Iraq should diplomatic efforts fail to dismantle Saddam Hussein’s chemical and biological weapons and his nuclear program.

      Now, I believe the facts that have brought us to this fateful vote are not in doubt. Saddam Hussein is a tyrant who has tortured and killed his own people, even his own family members, to maintain his iron grip on power. He used chemical weapons on Iraqi Kurds and on Iranians, killing over 20 thousand people. Unfortunately, during the 1980’s, while he engaged in such horrific activity, he enjoyed the support of the American government, because he had oil and was seen as a counterweight to the Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran.

      In 1991, Saddam Hussein invaded and occupied Kuwait, losing the support of the United States. The first President Bush assembled a global coalition, including many Arab states, and threw Saddam out after forty-three days of bombing and a hundred hours of ground operations. The U.S.-led coalition then withdrew, leaving the Kurds and the Shiites, who had risen against Saddam Hussein at our urging, to Saddam’s revenge.

      As a condition for ending the conflict, the United Nations imposed a number of requirements on Iraq, among them disarmament of all weapons of mass destruction, stocks used to make such weapons, and laboratories necessary to do the work. Saddam Hussein agreed, and an inspection system was set up to ensure compliance. And though he repeatedly lied, delayed, and obstructed the inspections work, the inspectors found and destroyed far more weapons of mass destruction capability than were destroyed in the Gulf War, including thousands of chemical weapons, large volumes of chemical and biological stocks, a number of missiles and warheads, a major lab equipped to produce anthrax and other bio-weapons, as well as substantial nuclear facilities.

      • Priyesh says:

        We know as a fact that speech from Hilary hurt her in 2008.

        http://www.vox.com/2015/2/20/8062125/hillary-clinton-lost-2008

        But I’m not even taking fault with Trudeau supporting the largest expansion in government power in my lifetime. I’d prefer he opposed it, but there are lots of Liberals on my right flank who support it.

        I’m pointing out the terrible politics behind it. Based on conversations, it most certainly hurt him among the people he was supposed to inspire.

        He didn’t support it for intellectual reasons. He didn’t support it for moral reasons. He basically said he’s supporting it so the Conservatives won’t criticize him.

        Taking a position because you’re afraid of your opponents is almost certainly going to hurt your leadership numbers.

  5. Africon says:

    It is human nature – we tend to wildly exaggerate the positives and promise of a new and famous hopeful face.
    However, it is also human nature to easily and quickly turn on a dime when that exaggerated, hoped for promise does not materialize.

    Having no platform that the average Joe and Jane are aware of was not an issue when JT appeared but not any more.
    The reality of what the Liberal leadership are DOING in Quebec and Ontario, does great damage to the illusory hopes that used to be attached to the new and hopeful face on the scene.

    As has happened in Greece, the new austerity in Quebec may well result a turn to the far left & right which can only hurt JT’s chances.
    Not so much in Ontario, as the Libs face the reality of the rating agencies, voters will likely look to the PC’s

    There are three major electoral regions and one rump in Canada.
    JT will need at least one of them or a good chunk of all three – The west/Nrth (107), QC (78), ON (121), Atl (32).
    Since the East and Quebec are also barely growing in electoral strength, this trend, if it continues, does not bode well for LPC’s future.
    It will be very hard to come back from remaining the 3rd party, Federally yet again.

    But then again, it IS just IPSOS

  6. bigcitylib says:

    IPSOS EXCLUSIVE! HUDAK WINS!! HUDAK WINS!!

    Ipsos, the new Forum.

    • Warren says:

      Except… That mysterious Ekos, that iPolitics never wrote about? The reporter in question (Kristie Smith) told me they had obtained more or less the same result about 10 days ago.

      • Matt says:

        Wait……

        So Frank Graves at EKOS, he of the “the Liberals need to start a culture war” to beat Harper is intentionally withholding polling results that show Trudeau in a negative light?

        Or did I completely misread what you said?

    • Warren says:

      What she sent to me Friday before last:

      Hey there,

      Got some new polling data from EKOS and it’s showing Trudeau has slipped down to Ignattief levels of popularity — any chance you have some time today to chat?

  7. davie says:

    Good thing for those three boys that the survey did not slip in Ms May’s name. I took in a meeting yesterday afternoon with May and local candidate , Manly,. Good crowd, some standing, lots of applause, lots of approval.

    • Danny says:

      The two poles are not that different. The Globe pole was taken over two months so may miss the recent drop. But like the Ipso poll at http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6815 it shows the Liberal vote is inefficient. Big majorities in the city of Toronto and the East coast that will be wasted votes. The Cons and NDP are winning by smaller margins in more ridings.

    • Matt says:

      3000 people surveyed, the largest single sample area of 646 people was from the 416, where the Liberals are very strong.

      skews the overall support level up for the Liberals.

    • Matt says:

      Problem with that poll, is it went from February until the end of March. That’s a long time in Politics, including alot about C51 and ISIS

    • reader says:

      IPSOS isn’t in disagreement with that as it shows the same results on voting intention for CPC/LPC/NDP within MOE. Like essentially all polls, they show the CPC and LPC basically tied with NDP in 3rd place.

      However, that poll didn’t do leadership questions which is what this discussion is about. Leadership and voting iterations are not closely correlated in the current polls. Maybe this will change during the election.

  8. Mike Adamson says:

    That Harper’s “secret agenda” result fell can be explained by the fact that it’s no longer secret. That said, Trudeau’s performance has been very disappointing to someone who dearly wants to see the Conservatives defeated.

  9. Matt says:

    Blocked Liberal candidate David Bertschi has now added Justin Trudeau and several of his advisors to a lawsuit against the Liberal party.

    http://news.nationalpost.com/news/ca…etired-general

  10. Jim Keegan says:

    The Global clip of the Prime Minister gob smacking Junior during Question Period was hilarious. It’s not really a fair fight at all.

    The wheels are rapidly coming off the Trudeau driven Liberal bus.

  11. King Prick says:

    Trudeau… Simply put; he’s weak sauce.

    I’m in the construction field. I’m a site superintendent. I’m around blue collar types to whom he should be appealing. Not that any person in the Liberal party gives a shit—because I believe they think PET’s kid is the second coming of Christ himself—-but here’s what we’re talking about and what I’m hearing from more than one “working man.”

    My bricklayer foreman: “Trudeau’s a f**king pussy. I speak to my 6 year old better than he talks to people. He talks to us like we’re some kind of idiots. That guy never worked a day in his life. He’s a spoiled rich kid. F**k him. I hate Harper but I’ll take him over that guy any day.”

    My excavator: “Is he gay? He doesn’t talk like a man. I want a man that sounds like a man.”

    My labourer: “I’m not even gonna vote. What’s the point?”

    My waterproofer: “He’s the same as Harper. He’s not gonna change anything except his paycheque, if he wins.”

    Granted, these guys all had much more to say and believe me, it was expletive laden and cutting but this is what he’s up against. Harper has secured the blue collar 905 vote. How? I have no clue. But “Trudy” as he was called today, ain’t gonna get the youth vote without their parents buying in and from what I can tell, he isn’t getting the blue collar vote at all. So, how does he gonna do it?

    He comes off as a “pussy.” His speeches are like listening to a pre-school teacher explain to a 5 year old why they shouldn’t be eating glue. he doesn’t know his audience. Plain and simple. If he wants the vote—my vote and the vote of my men—he needs to show us he can work. He needs to come to my job site and slug it out for more than a photo op. He needs to pick up something heavy and carry it. He needs to show us he can get his hands dirty. When he does that, his numbers will come up. Other than that, he’s nothing more that a parasitic, baby kissing, dead fish, candidate bucking for a pay raise for a job that he hasn’t proven he deserves.

    Slap a safety harness on him and get some shots of him working. We need proof.

    And finally, I’d vote Liberal myself but I’m not voting for him. He loses me each time he stands up in QP and planks on the delivery of question. He reads, he doesn’t speak. Weak sauce.

    • Sean says:

      This is perhaps the best contribution I have ever seen on any political website ever. Precisely the sort of comments I have been hearing. This is the crowd who actually decides elections. Totally hit the nail on the head.

    • davie says:

      You have pointed out something that works like sixty for the people in charge: get a guy who can do the manly man schtick (among other schticks).
      I always thought that one of the better ones at this was Bush 43. Just before his nomination run, the Repubs bought a ranch and George, the frat boy, put on the bush clearing ranch owner schtick…just a working with his hands kind of guy. I figure he got lot of votes from farm, trades and shop floor fellows with his sell. (Another who did this well, for us older people, was Ronald Reagan. I get the idea that Putin sells this image a little.)
      When it doesn’t quit work (StockDay in that wetsuit) it shows us what is being done to us…but when it works, we don’t notice it.

      It struck me almost a year ago that the Conservatives were going to spread their tough on crime stuff to foreign affairs, and sell this government as a really tough bantam weight on the international scene. Your vignette from your work place suggest that it is working well. A bunch of guys who, like their leader, never used their hands for anything are selling themselves as manly men.

      By default, everyone else is a wuss, even if he won a boxing match.

      A lot of people see through this, but when it works, enough do not, and it affects their voting choices.

    • The Other Matt says:

      King Prick, I would have to agree. I currently work as a sales / marketing rep for a large company (wont say which one) so Im in convenience stores and gas stations all day all over Eastern Ontario (Ottawa to Kingston) Its funny, most of the store owners wont vote for the guy (people from all cultures) because they associate him with Wynne and they are paying through the nose in Hydro and cant do anything about it (lights, freezers , fridges etc) so he lost alot of their votes. When we happen to be talking politics, if a customer is in the store, they all seem to roll their eyes at the thought of Justin. People are finding he doesnt resonate , hes never worked a day in his life, worried about bills, had to make sacrifices etc. Its not so much being against someone who comes from a family of means as its the luck of the draw. But more the fact that he litterally has never had to work for anything, and expects he can walk into a job. Im no pollster, but this is what I am constantly hearing all over E-Ont. He is the epitome of nepotism which I think bothers alot of people.

  12. ajay kumar says:

    IPSOS accuracy is questionable , they showed a three way tie in Ontario. they showed george smitterman winning in 2010 mayoral race. this particular poll asked about leadership qualities, ndp leaders are usually higher in those polls. liberals tried having intellectualls like dion and ignatieff. style is more important in the age of netflix.

  13. Pat says:

    The Liberals are beginning to understand what it’s like to have Tony Hudak as your great hope.

  14. Matt says:

    Today Trudeau said he might be open to a coalition with the ndp…………. BUT not as long as Mulcair is their leader.

    Of course not. If Mulcair is still there he’ll lead circles around you Justin.

    Liberal internal polling must be far worse than the recent public polling.

    he’s showing what a spoiled little brat he is. If you want a coalition, Tommy can’t be NDP leader or I’ll take my ball and go home!!!

  15. DonW says:

    How many of us on this site voted for Trudean as LPC leader? Who is advising him? What is the genesis of this now perennial LPC HQ habit of shooting themselves in the foot before an election?

  16. Rich says:

    Latest clarification…I think it’s number 27…link says it all .

    That’s as of 12:38 pm today….please post any changes and give the time.

    http://globalnews.ca/news/1940031/justin-trudeau-now-says-he-is-unequivocally-opposed-to-liberal-ndp-coalition/?hootPostID=54a0b0007d54f6752762d80fa93305ba

  17. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Justin needs to find his political self. It lies there untapped somewhere deep within him. When he finally does, it will be a permanent game changer.

    Butts and the others can do nothing to help him. Trudeau lives or dies politically based on his inner strength. He isn’t PET but he is sure to find some of his father’s political smarts within him.

    It’s do or die time. He like Dion and Ignatieff will ultimately determine his own political fate.

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