Musings —04.23.2015 11:32 AM—
Here’s what the CBC’s polling aggregator has to say:
But the trend of the Liberals under-performing their pre-election polling at the ballot box tilts the odds in the Conservatives’ favour. The Liberals have averaged a drop of about six points per election since 1979, if we include the more limited polling prior to 1997. Since 1997, that drop has averaged eight points. That is virtually identical to the gains made by the Conservatives and their predecessor parties over that period of time.
I’m not sure I buy this theory: if the past six months have shown us anything, they’ve shown us that events can have a rather dramatic effect on voting intention.
What do you think, Dear Reader? CPC for the win, as CBC suggests? Or someone else?