06.02.2015 07:03 AM

Election 2015, in 140 characters

Campaigns matter, of course, per the cliché. Bien sur. But the picture that is emerging from the last few weeks of polling is distorted. Am I wrong? Am I right? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

23 Comments

  1. gyor says:

    The NDP leads in Quebec and BC, The Liberals lead in Alantic Canada, the Tories lead in the Praires and Ontario, according to the latest poll out, but all three parties numbers are close enough that the 2015 election will be decided during the campaign.

    • reader says:

      Within MOE, Tories tied with Liberals in Ontario and BC is a 3 way race. Those provinces are not at all like the leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Alberta by LPC/NDP/CPC respectively. If Harper is to form a government he has to beat the LPC down in Ontario as this poll just has him 1 point ahead of LPC.

  2. JH says:

    That latest Ipsos poll certainly confirmed a lot of what you’ve been saying WK. It’s also interesting how quickly the opposition and the consortium have stopped talking about their debates and the Cons refusal to participate. I suspect it may have something to do with this:
    http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/likely-voters-dont-care-if-harper-snubs-consortium-debates
    I know you don’t like the writer, but the story makes some interesting points.
    The age group of a politicians supporters and their tendency to vote or not vote, is something that has not been measured as closely as it should be by pollsters imhop.

  3. doconnor says:

    Sites like <A href="http://www.threehundredeight.com/"threehundredeight.com take this into account by doing projections with regional numbers.

    If you divide seats by vote percentage you get these efficiency numbers showing the Conservatives are the most efficient and the Liberals are the least.

    Con: 4.27
    Lib: 3.51
    NDP: 3.79

    Still, a shift in the popular vote of a few percent still makes a big difference.

  4. Dave says:

    Given that the Atlantic represents about 5% of a national sample, um, no.

    Also pretty competitive everywhere: everyone. There are seats at play for all three major parties in all six or seven (depending on how you count ’em) regions.

  5. King Prick says:

    All polls aside; anybody that believes that an election will change anything, ever, is deluded. I love the fact that we sit here and actually try to convince ourselves that voting actually means something when it doesn’t. Every four years the corporate types that own this country fool us into believing that an election actually matters when it doesn’t. NDP, Liberal or Conservative—they’re all the same. They may have different party constitutions, they may have differing views that they portray for the press but the truth is: not one single party gives a rats ass or can do a damn thing to make Canada a better place. NAFTA took that away a long time ago.

    I met a Persian woman some time ago. She had just moved here from Tehran. She was an architect. She was well educated and worldly. I was crowing about how great Canada is and she quietly put me in my place. With just a few words she made me realise that “this ain’t Canada anymore.” She said: “Do you really believe that Canada has a say in anything? America owns you. They own your crops, your resources…” I hate to admit it but she’s right. To make matters worse, it made me recall a moment while out in Calgary when a very pleasant variety store owner struck up a conversation with a Texas oil man who happened to be buying cigarettes. The shop owner simply said: “Canada now has lots oil too. Good for Canada, no?” The American replied: “We own you.”

    Poll or no poll. Government is shit and there needs to be a reset. A big fucking reset. So, any candidate that starts talking about ratifying these bullshit trade agreements that have basically led to serfdom for the Canadian middle class might be worth listening to, but the truth is: they’re all corrupt. Every political leader is a shameless shill who will suck the teat of whomever he’s told to by THE OWNERS of this country.

    I say; don’t vote. It’s meaningless and has proven so ever since I was 18 years old. Thirty years of voting for something better and we’re more fucked than ever. Canadian government. What a joke. I can’t believe I ever believed in it.

    Have a great day!

    • Warren says:

      I sense you need a hug today.

    • edward nuff says:

      mostly agree. democracy is a system where every few years people vote for self selected self appointed borderline psychopaths who declare themselves as leaders and then we give them the power of the purse, the police and of course the pistol. then they pay themselves very well as they proceed to shit in our dinner with cliches, threats and corruption. when we don’t like it we protest in the streets and accomplish nothing.
      a reset is needed and that will only happen when the power of the purse is taken away and given back to us because it’s well documented they don’t know what they are doing. Oh, did anyone see the idiot cop telling protestors in Ottawa that Bill c 51 would see them arrested for threatening the economy. he would never say that if we controlled his paycheque and quickly too. why does he already have that mindset?

      control the money
      control the gun
      control the gun
      get anything done

    • Ray says:

      Find a better place to live.
      Go there.

      • King Prick says:

        Ray, please try an argument that has validity. Telling someone to leave his country is well… Kinda lame brained. I’m merely suggesting that someone speak for the people. It’s gone. There is no government for the people by the people. Ratify NAFTA, cease corporate welfare, punish the investment bankers and corrupt the same way other criminals get punished, return corporate taxes to where they were in 2001 when the country was still running the biggest surplus in our history… It’s easy to tell someone to leave the country, especially if the person casting them out is ignorant of the things being done to remove our nation from beneath our feet. So, I suppose you would say that the people involved in The Boston Tea Party were wrong, The Warsaw Uprising were wrong, the protesters of the Vietnam War, Nelson Mandela, Gerry Adams, The entire population that started The French Revolution… How about the voices in music that helped to change things? The Clash? Should they have left UK for having an opinion? Neil Young? Should he be considered less of a Canadian because he shouts down the oil sands? What about The Who, The Grateful Dead, Joan Baez, The Sex Pistols, Arlo Guthrie, Pete Seger… Get a grip Ray Ray… It’s been said for years: Capitalism is destroying the world. Reset and regulate. The attitude of sitting idly by or telling someone to go fuck themselves is what has landed Canada in the shit.

        I get it. You’re happy with the status quo. Good for you. One day, you’ll wake up and you’ll be spelling in American and incarcerating minorities for fun and profit. That’s not my world. The Brits burned the White House to the ground for a reason in1812.

        John A Macdonald refused to join the USA for a reason. Learn your history or better still, you go find a better place to live. Clearly, your less of a Canadian that what you seem to be giving yourself credit for.

      • edward nuff says:

        i did and it was better but there were still people like you there so i left.

        • edward nuff says:

          furthermore ray i have a new mantra for you.

          Willful ignorance is no longer an option.

          repeat as required.

    • Derek Pearce says:

      Democracy has always been about chosing whomever you least despise to run things. So I agree with you overall take on things but I think it’s still worth voting, even if it always always always leads to disappointment. Also, it isn’t “America” that owns us, it’s corporations, who also own the world.

    • GFMD says:

      Nice try, Mr. Pollievre, but your vote dampening techniques won’t fly on this board!

      • King Prick says:

        @GFMD

        Touche! You made me chuckle. (I’ve tried voting and I’ve tried running in an election or two, just so I could see the process from the inside out.)
        It’s a joke. A shameless joke perpetrated by shameless, spineless people.

  6. Priyesh says:

    No, the Liberal advantage in the Atlantic is real. Even if the lead isn’t as high as they say it is, it’s high enough to guarantee a solid win.

    The problem is that there are more seats in Alberta than in the Atlantic.

    • Dave says:

      All of which is beside the point: an Atlantic advantage for the LPC is not enough to “inflate” their national polling numbers by more than about 0.6%, which is far less than a margin of error.

  7. Bill says:

    Schadenfreude

  8. Tiger says:

    CPC feels good about where they’re at.

    No mystery why.

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