06.05.2015 01:48 PM

Team Trudeau, working hard for a win

…by Mulcair.

31 Comments

  1. Matt says:

    Yeah, I take any poll by known anti-Conservative Frank Graves with about a pound of salt, not a grain of salt.

    In his final poll of the 2011 campaign he had the Conservaties 6 points lower than their election night total.

    And he’s the only pollster showing the Liberals that low.

    • Al in Cranbrook says:

      Yep, and Cameron was in deep trouble in GB…right up to the moment he won a majority. In BC the only question was, how big of a majority would Dix win? And Paul Martin was set to win the biggest majority in Canadian history.

      That said, I cannot imagine a worse scenario than a federal NDP government. Having endured a couple of them here in BC, would not wish that future on anyone!

      But by October it may well become clear just how destructive that would be. Alberta’s oil patch is bracing for the worst, and future investments are being cancelled outright. Meanwhile, the new NDP premier looks to Ontario as she plans to roll out a new energy plan based upon all the usual left wing fascination with unicorns and pixie dust, in which they will subsidize wind and solar energy. Brilliant, eh? Embracing the same idiocy that has been a bloody disaster just about everywhere else in the world and the “energy poverty” that has resulted across Europe, forget about the hell its created in Ontario, driving manufacturers to look for the nearest far away place from Ontario.

      By October, should the threat of socialist clowns taking the reins in Ottawa still loom large, it may well consolidate the vote on the center/right of center to block…and the Liberals end up road kill. Lots of Blue Liberals out there who’d rather drive nails through their own feet than risk the chance of an NDP takeover.

  2. Christian says:

    Warren, a while ago you cited Olivia Chow as a warning to the NDP. While there is some basis for that, I actually think it applies more to Justin Trudeau than Thomas Mulcair. As you probably (painfully) recall, Chow was seen as the inevitable front runner a year out from the municipal election. Similarly Justin was viewed that way. Than a few flubs, bad communications and hasty, and rushed policy roll outs later Chow began to weaken. Similar again to Justin. Throw in a couple polls that showed Tory gaining traction and momentum and BOOM! That was it. People didn’t care who could defeat Ford, they just wanted him gone and would support the person best perceived to do that. It was a permanent and massive switch of support from Chow to Tory. I see that scenario now playing out to the benefit of the NDP. I think the lesson to be learned from this – the lesson Team Trudeu failed to heed is that its a disaster to run a “front runner” campaign a full year out from an election. To put style ahead of substance and to try and be all things to all people. Voters, it seems, want 1) A credible alternative to a dispised incumbant; and 2) Policy ‘steak’ – not just sizzle (never mind if it may not be implementable just has to sound reasoned, thought out and credible). This was true for Torontonians and it seems Canadians.

    • Jeff says:

      The NDP is extremely maxed out at these poll numbers. I think they are also extremely vulnerable and don’t have an efficient vote.

      Things like what happened in Alberta or the last federal election were a big surprising shift to a sweep. Both parties have had time to adjust to this recently new reality this time around and the NDP peaked too early. They are vulnerable with the electorate on nearly every major policy point in the upcoming campaign and they will be exposed.

      That being said, a strong NDP vote has always been poison for Liberal election chances so it will do a good job of that. Justin needs to bring whatever he can before it is too late.

  3. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Some would say Justin peaked too soon and that perhaps Mulcair is also well on his way to doing the same. Lucky Harper, he gets to forget about the idea of even peaking.

  4. Matt from Ottawa says:

    In my opinion these are some possible reasons.

    CPC
    -For CPC, theres voter fatigue, but they still have a strong base and may get some votes from the devil they know. That being said, many friends who vote CPC arent fans of Harper. For several, its less losing support for CPC as it is for Harper.

    NDP
    – NDP I think is having a surge partly because of Alberta (less about policies but more about possibilities) and as an option to Harper, Mulcair just comes off as more serious and more of a prime minister. Although some see the NDP as far left, I think they will be able to pick up alot of CPC votes from the blue collar/ union types and from the progressive side.

    LPC
    -For LPC, I see many problems. One, how just a few weeks ago Butts et al, were boasting about how many provinces are Liberal (provincially). The problem with this is in places like NS, NB, Ontario, BC, many of these governments are putting through their year 1 and 2 “tough budgets” which reflect bad on the LPC. Moreover as in the case of Ontario, there tends to be a balance of power approach between fed and prov. The NDP seem to have QC locked down and verywell could come up the middle in many places in Ont, and BC
    – The “Braintrust” My god, they NEED to get rid of Butts and many of the LPC braintrust. Not only is there an extremely high level of arrogance with them, they seem to think becoming PM will be just as easy as JTs coronation.
    – Finally, I think people are waking up to JT. He honestly seems like a nice guy, a guy youd want to have a beer with. The problem is, he comes as across as someone who lacks the intestinal fortitude to make tough and difficult decisions.

    Either way, should be an extremely interesting election.

  5. Max M says:

    Jesus. We haven’t even begun official campaigning and NDP are being acclaimed to the throne. I’m getting quite disgusting with the empty rhetoric coming from NDP proponents about change without an ounce of substance to back that. The vitriol that the NDP manages to spew towards Justin is quite possibly worse than what Harper is doing, yet because they are considered “progressive” they have a license to hate.

    NDP = Conservative

    Two extremes, with alarming similar philosophies of politics and attitudes towards those who disagree.

    Warren may still have a personal vendetta with the Liberals, however, he can’t possibly believe Mulcair is an iota different that Harper. These aren’t principled men, they are power hunger and desperate men. The only difference here is Harper makes no effort to hide it; Thomas is a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

    If it came down to it, I’d much rather have another 4 years of Harper than give the former-Liberal/attempted Conservative/“always an NDPer” Mulcair the power of government.

    For god-sakes, what would a front bench of an NDP government even look like –Charmaine Borg as Minister of Star Trekking? Pat Martin as Minister of the Underwear Industry?

    • Max M says:

      Edit: Quite *disgusted*

    • Torontonian says:

      If Mulcair is “power-hungry”, why on earth did he quit a cabinet post in a successful government to run for what was at the time seen as a no-hope party in Quebec?

      • terry quinn says:

        He left the Quebec government long before he became an NDP’er. His exit from the quebec Liberals was not of his own doing even though it sounded like that. Nobody missed him the Liberal caucus when he left.

        • Torontonian says:

          According to Wikipedia, the gap between his resignation from cabinet and his NDP candidacy was about a year. I realize that according to the cliche, a week is a long time in politics, but a year doesn’t strike me as especially long. Anyway, my point is that a guy who was “power hungry” would probably act differently in those circumstances.

    • G. McRae says:

      Hate to break it you, but “power hungry” and “desperate” describes the Liberals too. The revolving door of leaders trying to find the fastest way back to power. Stuff like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEyjgn6zD5Q does not help either.

      The difference between the Liberals and the other guys is that they spent their years in the wilderness developing policies. The Liberals were just looking for the next quick fix.

      • Brammer says:

        “The Liberals were just looking for the next quick fix” Bingo.

        Compared to the US, the great thing about Canada is that we have more than two political parties to choose from. After C-51, the line between Trudeau and Harper has blurred and social libertarians opposed to further erosion of their Charter rights may now find Mulcair the more attractive option.

        Tom and the dippers represent a fresh outlook, a new start, and maybe a chance for some real change.

    • MississaugaPeter says:

      YIKES!!! Max M!!!

      “with alarming similar philosophies of politics and attitudes towards those who disagree.”

      Yah, they (both the Conservatives and NDPers) are more open than Trudeau’s and his Not-Even-Ready-for-the-Minor-League Entourage’s behaviour towards dissenting views. You may, but I find that less alarming than Trudeau’s and his Not-Even-Ready-for-the-Minor-League Entourage’s “our view or get out of our Party” approach (no matter how long you have been a member or how much you have done for the Party).

      I have voted for many different Liberal leaders with varying strengths and weaknesses, but I have never been put off by a more arrogant Liberal leader and supposedly Liberal team around him. No other Liberal leader and his team ever treated its older Liberal members like shit.

    • Priyesh says:

      I’m a Liberal, but I’m also “anybody but Harper”. The only hate and vitriol I saw was when you said Mulcair is the same as Harper, and you’d rather have four more years of Harper.

      Talk about “disgusted”.

  6. RJ Carter says:

    Warren…what am I missing…why hasn’t there been more of a response to the sagging numbers from Trudeau / LPC? I am waiting for the counter-offensive.

  7. MetaKaizen says:

    The Liberal showing in voter intention by age and gender is quite a reality check to hopes JT could ride to victory on the female and younger generation votes.

    As usual, females and the young are smarter than the crowd gives them credit for, and are not buying what the LPOC is selling.

  8. Kevin says:

    The coronation of Trudeau was an epic mistake. Celebrity soon wears off and all that comes from his mouth is inane drivel of dubious merit.

  9. Mike Sloan says:

    I’m expecting to see more “team” ads, and less Justin. I could well be wrong, but I sense the shine has worn off and he just doesn’t impress people.

  10. Matt says:

    So, according to Graves, the national numbers are very bad news for the Conservatives.

    It isn’t until the very end of the article “margin of error 2.1%.

    How far are the Conservatives allegedly behind the NDP? 2.1%.

    NDP lead is within the MOE. Most other pollsters would call that a statistical tie.

    Not ol’ Frankie.

  11. gyor says:

    Who are the NDP hating? The NDP’s ad is a positive ad that doesn’t mention either other party. The Liberals on the other hand have launched attack ads against the NDP in Quebec. The Tories have launched attack ads against Liberals, but the Libs attacked the NDP instead. The NDP have been offer policy proposes, the Liberals until.rescently have offered nothing, but weed, that doesn’t make us hateful.

    • Matt says:

      The Libs are attacking the NDP in Quebec because they have to take a significant number of seats away from the Dippers in Quebec if Trudeau hopes to even become leader of the Official Opposition, never mind PM.

  12. Paris Nicolaides says:

    Two reasons for that that I can see,…

    Rachel Notley,… her victory in Alberta of all places made people consider a federal NDP government possible.

    Liberal support for C-51,… a blunder of stupendous proportions. Any and all votes on the centre & left of the political spectrum came to the conclusion, perhaps with some justification, that the Liberal Party of Canada is nothing more than CPC-Lite. That if you want real change, not just a change of colour and softer demeanour, you vote New Democrat.

  13. Brian says:

    Simple answer peeps – people look at JT and see Harper-lite. Sorry Libs, but the new more polarized political climate has generated more progressives looking for the progressive.

  14. Liam Young says:

    Let’s hope some more stuff hits the fan from the Duffy trial before October, crushing any chance of a Harper victory. That and continued sliding support from their gun friends concerning C-51 (aka Bill ‘Canada’s New Gun Registry, but not Gun Registry, just tracking system of everyone that has an opinion’).

    One of the biggest things that will take the wind out of Mulcair’s sails is a possible teacher’s strike in Ontario in the fall. If they do too many ‘we shall overcome’ public events and aren’t sympathetic to the ‘average’ Ontario parent / taxpayer, then they’ll lose it.

    • Matt says:

      The only gun owners who are angry at the Conservatives are a small faction of a group called the National Firearms Association, or NFA.

      They are an embarrassment. They believe in “no compromise” on gun laws and dream of a time when the can walk the streets with full auto AK-47’s and drive fully operational A-1 Ambrams tanks to the grocery store.

      Quite frankly, C-51 is needed to track the more radical people in that group.

      The Conservatives pay zero attention to these idiots. The have no representation on the Firearms Advisory Committee, the CPC’s Hunting and Fishing caucus, or in any discussions on firearms law reform.

      If you want a laugh, youtube their recent Annual Gerneral Meeting.

  15. Michael says:

    If one thing is for sure, Harper is finished. I’m not even sure a GST cut will help him.

    • Matt says:

      Based on a poll by Frank Graves?

      We’ve heard all the “Harper’s toast” before. Proroguation 1 was supposed to be the end of Harper. Then prorouation 2, G-8/G20, long form census changes, F-35 purchase, and many other things were supposed to be the end of Harper.

      Guess what? The CPC kept gaining seats election after election.

  16. Tim says:

    I think the problem is that Justin Trudeau just isn’t that bright and intelligent people can see that. The more they let him speak publicly, the less appealing he is. I was initially enticed by his candidacy, but he lacks substance. Go NDP!

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