06.16.2015 08:29 AM

The Orwellian double-speak of (some) pollsters

Check it out: Trudeau has “collapsed” – but it’s “reversible”!

I love Will’s comment.

But, on the horse race stuff, it’s clear. And it means Trudeau needs new advisors, among other things:

Nationally, this latest poll shows the NDP slightly edging the CPC, with 36 per cent of decided support among likely voters (see notes on methodology at the end of this report), just ahead of the governing Conservatives (33%), while the Liberals pull up third at 23 per cent.

45 Comments

  1. Matt from Ottawa says:

    Couldnt agree with you more. The LPC used to be a party of policy. Slowly, complacency has overtaken them and they feel people will vote for them “just because”. NDP winning Alberta was a game changer no doubt about it. The LPCs old way of campaigning by assuming they were the only option is done, they actually have to work for votes now. The arrogance of JTs advisors is also extremely problematic, they cant see the forest for the trees. Butts needs to go. Also, I think given the fact that varying forms of Liberal parties run many provinces (and are doing their early/painful budgets now), and CPC run federal, if people are looking for an alternative, they very well could go NDP

    • edward nuff says:

      the libs were once like the yankees. It was never about the uniform, it was about the stripes but not any more. A bunch of red signs wont cut it anymore.

    • Dave says:

      How much policy has to be cranked out before the usual suspects shut up about “no policy!”?

    • Don Wilson says:

      Absolutely agree with you, Matt. The Liberals, when they ran from the centre of the Left-Right spectrum, used to be the one party I could count on for a reasonably unbiased view of things. Take your standard office chair The Conservatives could look at a chair and call it a fine example of Canadian engineering; the NDP would look at the same chair and call it an instrument of managerial oppression of the working class, while to the Liberals it was a chair of certain dimensions, materials, and size. The Liberals were the most reasonable party on most issues during the Chretien era. Now that they have decided to run right of centre, I can no longer count on them. Instead of principled judgement and unbiased assessment of the facts, we get ideologically-driven spin designed to please disaffected Conservatives (how many of this sub-species are alive and well these days?) but instead attracts no one. Butts & Co. are driving JT to electoral oblivion and taking dozens of very worthwhile local candidates with them. Shame….

  2. Matt says:

    Yawn.

    NDP national number being skewed by their Quebec increase.

    • doconnor says:

      If you look at the regional numbers starting on page 8 you’ll see a similar NDP increases in every region with the increase in Ontario, BC and Quebec being the most pronounced.

      • Matt says:

        NDP always poll high in BC.

        CPC always poll low in the summer months.

        This poll asks who people are LIKELY going to vote for. Rework the numbers for COMMITTED voters, I suspect you’d get a different.

        Lib and NDP numbers are fluctuating greatly. Their voters are far less committed than CPC voters.

        • doconnor says:

          The poll show an increase in BC from 25% and third place to 39% and first place since December. Ontario has gone from 20% to 35%.

          The Conservative’s problem is their committed voters aren’t enough for a majority and everyone else is committed to getting rid of them and are fluctuating about their best option to do that.

      • Dave says:

        And compared to 2011…?

  3. Priyesh says:

    I’m sad. But been warming to the idea of Mulcair for a while now. The thing that Dippers hate about him may actually be his greatest asset: he’s a former Liberal. He’s not an ideologue.

    What worries me is how many bozos there are in that NDP caucus.

    • davie says:

      I thought that a fair number of the ndp members have done a good job in opposition. A number of the young men and women in that caucus are tough, bright, and have learned their jobs well.
      But, then , I was biased for them because of the antipathy of the press and old line parties toward them when they were first elected.

    • RogerX says:

      Not only is Mulcair a ‘former’ Liberal, he is a defrocked Liberal when he was drummed out of the Quebec Liberal government. Then he was rebuffed by the federal Conservatives when he offered his services — provided he was assured of a cabinet posting. So in final desperation he went to Jack Layton who was equally desperate to get a high profile Quebec representation and it was a match made in political heaven.

      Interestingly, after Jack passed on, Mulcair claimed that HE was the architect of the Orange Crush Wave and Jack capitalized on it with his cane waving and proclaiming “I feel fine” in his homeboy Quebec joual. It was a fantastic victory that eviscerated Duceppe’s BQ!

      Mulcair is obviously an opportunistic Quebec lawyer who has enrobed himself in Dipper Drag!

  4. chuckercanuck says:

    Sneeze and two scratches.

    Why do people start comments with noises?

    You know what doesn’t get skewed by NDP numbers? The absolute collapse of the Liberal party. Iggy won’t feel like such a loser when the 2015 results roll in.

    36 seats will be a major accomplishment for this gang of dopes. The utter stupidity of going for reforms to how we vote when Trudeau has so badly embarrassed himself on this. Of course he wants proportional representation: that will make it even easier for him to pick and choose his MPs – he won’t get stuck with the bums that open nominations stick him with.

    How “in a vacuum” can that guy be? Next, he’ll promise that Eve Adams will be his Minister of Democratic Reform!!!

    • Matt says:

      Um, how exactly would Trudeau get to pick his MP’s under proportional representation?

      • chuckercanuck says:

        Well, like in many democracies that have PR, the parties make lists and when their popular vote gives them seats, they hand those seats to people on those lists. Its a Duffy-o-rama of unrepresentative government. None of those PR democracies are as old as Canada’s democracy. In fact, the three longest running democracies don’t have those cutsy PR strategies. But let’s give it a whirl, it will be fun!

        • doconnor says:

          In Canada the lists are likely be to be elected by party members. Supposedly open nominations have been manipulated, votes across all party members are harder to manipulate because more candidates and voters are involved.

          I liked the idea of having list candidates come from local candidates that got the most votes, but did not win.

          • chuckercanuck says:

            Did Trudeau make that promise about how the lists will be created? It all sounds so complicated! Can someone from the local list be a resident of somewhere else? Who chooses which local loser candidate suddenly becomes the MP – Trudeau? I don’t understand Trudeau’s very sophisticated system and how it erases all the weaknesses of typical PR systems. I guess I will trust him and Eve Adams to make sure everything is fair, fair, fair.

            And, to boot, if I don’t vote, I’m thrown in jail? Or do I just get a fine? Does not voting mean I have a criminal record? What’s democratic about forcing people to vote?

          • doconnor says:

            “Did Trudeau make that promise about how the lists will be created?”

            His promises was for change. He hasn’t even said it would be some form of PR or instant runoff.

            “It all sounds so complicated!”

            While selection process can be complicated, what the voters have to decided is relatively straightforward.

            “Who chooses which local loser candidate suddenly becomes the MP – Trudeau?”

            Under my idea, it would be the candidates that got the most votes but did not win would make up the addition MPs. It would be all decided by the number of votes with no control by the leader.

            “I don’t understand Trudeau’s very sophisticated system and how it erases all the weaknesses of typical PR systems.”

            He has 0 details, therefore you can imagine the best possible system and project that on him.

          • Tiger says:

            I think what Trudeau actually wants is STV.

            But he’s letting it be fluffy and vague, so that we all can project something onto it that isn’t there.

  5. MoS says:

    Sure, backing C-51 was a boneheaded move and terrible for the country. Yet, as I recall, you supported Trudeau’s decision and defended it. New advisors, yeah okay.

    • Warren says:

      No it wasn’t. What hurt him was opposing going after ISIS while simultaneously supporting going after folks at home. NDP was clear; CPC was clear. LPC was trying to suck and blow.

      • Priyesh says:

        Exactly. Liberal party keeps trying to squeeze out these positions meant to appeal to everyone, and they appeal to NO ONE. And they show zero backbone or principle. Not even principles I disagree with. Just empty. Boneheaded consultant “strategery”.

    • Matt says:

      From this same polling company, a poll at the end of may:

      72% of Canadian adults support C-51.

  6. HarryR says:

    The NDP did not ‘win’ Alberta. It was handed to them by the fractured right of centre parties. A disastrous state of affairs!

  7. !o! says:

    It’s interesting and pretty in line with other polls.

    The frustrating thing about Angus Reid is that they always report ‘likely voters’ and you have no idea how they get that number. When you look at their ‘eligible voters’ numbers, you find they’ve changed the question from their last poll, to include an ‘I would not vote’ and a ‘not sure’ option, so it’s hard to get more than a general sense of trend lines from their data (NDP way up, LPC way down, CPC maybe flat maybe slightly down).

  8. ian turnbull says:

    Debate question:”Are free and open party nominations part of your electoral reform package?”….and again another of his “new policies” ends up backfiring on him.

    A while ago I began thinking Mulcair would fill the anti Harper vote void that JT was failing to fill. It never expected it to happen so quickly and massively. Mulcair has done basically nothing in the last 2 months other than sit at the table and let JT serve him all those votes.

    I don’t think this is reversible. Canadians were enthralled with JT. They gave him every chance to be their next one. Then they watched and listened and thought..”geez WTF”. I don’t think they give him a second look. At least not until after the next election.

    Its now up to Mulcair to show what he is about and maintain the momentum. I suspect the conservtives will continue to focus on JT for a couple more weeks to make sure he is completely finished, then go quiet in the summer and then focus their efforts on Mulcair late summer early fall.

    • Danny Aldham says:

      I think you are spot on with the CPC strategy.
      Finish off the Liberals, rest, and then raise the specter of an NDP Federal Government. The few people left in the Liberal column will flip CPC. The Liberal party was a big tent, it included some right of center voters who would rather hold their noses and vote Conservative than see a left wing NDP government.
      That was always the long term strategy. Turn Canada into a two party system. The right will win more than the left.

      • !o! says:

        Like in Alberta right?

      • jeff316 says:

        Agreed. The more the Liberals try to appear center-left the more their center-right half goes Conservative. These types of policy announcements are exactly what Harper wants – little nuggets to win back soft center-left voters but at best do not interest the right-leaning half of the Liberal support, or at worst actively encourage them to go Conservative.

    • Dave says:

      There are at least four NDP MPs from 2011 who might have something interesting to say about “open nominations”.

    • !o! says:

      The CPC won’t win any votes by talking about open nominations– the people who understand the issue are a pretty small minority, as are those that care. The best they do by utilizing that line is drive a small number of voters to Mulcair, which they don’t really want at this point. If you’re talking about a debate, Harper doesn’t want to go anywhere near the issue of accountability, so I’d just imagine deflections and trying to talk about the economy or crime rather than give the topic wind.

  9. edward nuff says:

    spoiler alert. Game of thrones reference.

    harper has the power now but i sincerely pray when he is defeated that he is arrested and forced to atone and walk naked cersei like past the Toronto convention centre where those arrested, beaten and humiliated during the g20 can vent their anger. That goes for Blair, officer bubbles and tony gazebo too. I will gladly supply the rotten tomatoes.

  10. pod says:

    Dippers wil never win across Canada

  11. Joe says:

    Like the Liberal part of Alberta Trudeau just laid out a platform that is about as popular as shag rug in a boogie van. Stale and dated and completely unimportant to the average voter. Appoint MPs from party lists —yeah another grasp by party central to tell Canadians what they really need and want. This Canadian says, “No Thanks!!!”

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