Musings —06.08.2015 09:40 AM—
Much sturm und drang on that Ekos, last Friday. Some of the commentariat commenting is commented on, below.
L. Ian MacDonald:
As much as the Conservatives should be concerned about their flatlining numbers, the Liberals have even more to be worried about. Since last summer, the Liberals have plummeted from 39 to 24 per cent in the EKOS poll. They’re in third place in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia. They’re in third place among college and university graduates. They’re also in third place among both genders and in every age group. Those are very bad numbers for Trudeau and the Liberals, especially with an election just over four months away.
Ironically, it is the PM and his party who may end up paying the price for the unexpected developments on the progressive side of Canadian politics. The Conservatives always knew they needed to keep the left side parties in a near dead heat to exploit the same weird splits that gave them a majority last time. They have pounded Trudeau to the point they might have damaged him irreparably and in so doing, handed the would-be splits to the NDP.
Harris has an interesting point, particularly given how much he hates Harper: that is, the Conservatives did their job too well on Trudeau. MacDonald, meanwhile, just seems to be marvelling at this dramatic Liberal decline. (Us, too.)
Me, I still think Trudeau is in the race. He has lots of money, lots of party infrastructure. If he has (a) effective paid in the writ and pre-writ, (b) superior GOTV, (c) the CPC turning their guns on Mulcair for a while, and (d) a smashing debate performance, he will do better than the polls currently suggest.
Am I right? Am I wrong? Whaddya think, folks?