07.09.2015 06:52 AM

Beware the ides of the Summer months

Dippers will be over the moon about this, naturally. And who can blame them? No less than Canada’s National Newspaper™, has declared that they will win! To the barricades. 

Um, except:

• John Turner

• Kim Campbell

• Michael Ignatieff

All of those good folks were ahead in the polls the Summer before a federal general election. Hell, in Kim’s case, she was the most popular Prime Minister in the history of polling at this point in July. 

Didn’t quite work out, did it?

Don’t start measuring for drapes in Langevin just yet, Team Orange. A lot can happen between now and E Day. And likely will. 

47 Comments

  1. Peter says:

    Pride goeth before the fall.

    But…but…but it’s all so different now.

    • davie says:

      I remember the blitz the business community put into this election just before the vote, full page ads in all major newspapers just a day or tow before the voting day. It has happened since, but this election the business and media really put on a show. ..and, as you suggest, very successfully.

  2. SD says:

    I will agree with you that we Dippers should not assume that we will win. It will still be a long battle.

  3. Christian says:

    I could be wrong (Lord, that would NOT be the first time) but it kinda feels different this time. My view is that it seems like last year’s Toronto mayoral campaign. The progressive vote is damned set and determined to kick Harper (last year: Ford) out and is coalasing around the most likely “anti-Haper” option, which is the NDP (last year it was Chow who like Trudeau was flying high a year out from the vote until…….well…you know the rest). Unless Mulcair does something incredibly stupid (always possible in politics) I don’t think the progressive vote is going to move back to the Liberals. Even the ‘attacks’ on Mulcair (courted by the Cons in 2007, office expenditures etc.) do not seem to be working. ALl of this is random and reckless speculation, which, as we all know is the best type of speculation.

    • Matt says:

      Except had the Toronto Mayoral election gone on a week to 10 days longer, we’d be talking about Mayor Doug Ford right now.

      The true “progressive” candidate, Chow was destroyed.

      • W the K - No, not Warren says:

        Oh, BS Matt! The Fords always (with a few outliers) hovered within a few percentage points of 30 and Doug ended up 33.7.

        Chow WAS destroyed. Awful campaign. Weak candidate.

    • Mike says:

      Except that Tory is not progressive. He is just Ford without the crazy.

      • Christian says:

        I didn’t say Tory was progressive. But the progressive vote in Toronto was desperate to get rid of Ford and was willing to back anyone who was sane that could do the job. They even were willing to look past Tory’s obvious non-progressive credentials. The progressive of choice was Chow but as others have noted she flamed out, crashed and burned.

  4. Matt says:

    Dion was also ahead of Harper before the 2008 election IIRC.

    CPC numbers always, ALWAYS fall during the summer.

    And the Globe and Mail is Canada’s National Newspaper? HA! Self proclaimed of course.

    The same Globe and Mail that had their restaurant critic write a glowing article about how Trudeau’s experience as a camp councillor mediating “disputes” between 12 year olds has prepared him for negotiating with the likes of Putin???

    • Kelly says:

      About as realistic as our Imperial Oil Mail Mail Room Clerk(TM) telling Putin to “Get out of Ukraine.” My guess is Putin was yawning and looking at his watch at the time.

      • RogerX says:

        He started in the mailroom but quickly advanced to the computer department.. according to his wiki bio. At least he’s not a failed schoolteacher, failed Engineer, failed geograper… even though he won the MP Jackpot in 2008 … and then quickly rose in the Liberal party to his level of incompetence as Liberal party leader and aspiring to elevate his failure to PM of Canada. At least Mulcair was a practicing lawyer in Quebec, a Quebec government minister and a university professor which means he has a brain and not only a brainlet like wonder boy!

    • hatrock says:

      “mediating “disputes” between 12 year olds”
      For a sec there, I thought you were going to say he’d be prepared to deal with MPs, but you said Putin, so your argument stands.

  5. Priyesh says:

    Turner and Campbell were high off of the “new leadership” bump, which as far as bumps go, is the most fragile in politics. And Ignatieff was the worst Liberal leader in the party’s history, so bad that we should be embarrassed that anyone sought him out.

    But I agree with your overall analysis. Polls change. This is going to be a close one, at least until the debates start.

    • Mark G says:

      “This is going to be a close one, at least until the debates start.”

      Yes. A while ago it was expected that Trudeau might lose his first place position in the debates. So now that the Liberals are in third, it’s likely they’ll drop even further and come in fourth behind the Greens after Trudeau completely flubs out in the debates.

  6. MississaugaPeter says:

    CALLING MARC GARNEAU NOW!

    Trudeau, step down now!

    • MississaugaPeter says:

      WK,

      Could the sitting MPs oust JT and his third-tier advisors?

      Do you think a grassroots campaign by Liberals could oust the nitwits? Would a petition campaign be suggested? Any strategic advice? Or is it fait accompli?

      • cgh says:

        Not possible. Leaders now have a base of legitimacy that does not require the caucus. It’s called a leadership convention. Such an overthrow can happen in Britain, and that’s usually how PMs are forced out, by a backbench revolt. But in Canada, party leaders are almost invariably dismissed only by elections. This was one of the consequences of diverging from the British leadership selection model in the 1960s.

      • Mike says:

        Sorry Mississauga Pete, but there is not a Liberal anywhere that is about to jump on your band wagon.

        Any Liberal with any brains took Trudeau being in first with a huge grain of salt. This is and always was going to be at least a 2 election effort. When Trudeau took over the party was in sad shape. It did not have enough money to actually fight this election. Half of the EDAs were dormant. In the time Trudeau has been leader the party machinery has been re-built, and fundraising has vastly improved. Not quite to CPC levels, but far put pacing the NDP.

        Even if he comes in third, Trudeau gets at least another kick at the can.

      • Fan590 says:

        LOL.

        The reality is JT is doing just fine. You need to see him in person interacting with people. He really is a popular and people can see he’s genuine and sharp (and a nice guy).

        There is a huge amount of support there for a good Liberal government with a good leader. JT’s support is from people who are too busy working, taking care of the kids during the summer, etc. They are not radical political junkies like so many Dippers or the far right Cons who clog up twitter.

        Is JT’s team perfect? No. Their weaknesses shout out “bring Warren in to help!” and hopefully they do. However, a solid campaign and we will see JT as PM.

      • Sean says:

        Actually I don’t think MississaugaPeter is too far off. Trudeau won’t be removed before the election. It’s too late for that. The troops are resigned to an inevitable fate. But I suspect he will resign on election night. The election is going to be a merciless pounding ala Stockwell Day / 2000. There’s not a prayer Trudeau will survive a leadership review and I don’t think the party is going to tolerate this train wreck into 2016.

        • Ridiculosity says:

          Insanity.

          Not gonna happen.

        • MississaugaPeter says:

          If Mulcair wins Trudeau will be to blame for the Liberals missing an opportunity to run the country again.

          If Harper wins, Trudeau will be to blame for the Liberals missing an opportunity to run the country again.

          Trudeau will not get a second chance. Why should he? It’s not like he just became leader yesterday. He has had enough time to assemble a great team and to prepare for an election. Liberals will ask why would a second run be more successful? The reality is that Trudeau was No. 1 and now he is No. 3. He and his team and their decision making are to blame for that. Why would that incompetence be rewarded by a second kick at the can?

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Mississauga Peter,

        These things aren’t even remotely possible unless the leader has lost an election. And even then, thems are long odds as Jamieson and I proved in 2005. As Matt said, look who is still there…and loving it.

    • Bill says:

      Garneau is walking Ambien

  7. Honan says:

    Up until Alberta, The federal NDP was polling at irrelevance and was going to have to run a painful campaign just trying to explain to people why they should even exist. The only hope that existed for them a few months ago was to be able to limp into Ottawa after facing oblivion outside of Quebec and hope for a minority government that would have to deal with them.

    The Dippers will continue sporting their shit eating grin because even if they don’t form government, Yesterdays best case scenario has become today’s worst case scenario and everyone knows how much New Democrats love playing the minority government game.

  8. Kelly says:

    Clickbait. Too many variables. Boils down to tactics. Mulcair could win if he starts attacking the phony Conservatives. But him saying at the Stampede that he wasn’t going to resort to attacks is worrying.

  9. Steve T says:

    As soon as the media start analyzing the comments of NDP MPs, to the extent they analyze the comments of Lib MPs and Con MPs, the NDP are toast. The silly comments by Niki Ashton re Greece are just the tip of the iceberg.

    The NDP faces a similar problem that the Reform/Alliance faced in the 1990s. Mulcair needs to have a strong “STFU” conversation with his MPs and candidates, if the NDP is to have any chance in the election.

  10. terry quinn says:

    Interesting that no one has brought up the Bloc as Dipper killers. If Duceppe is on his game, and he just maybe, and gets 25% or more of the vote he takes Angry Tom down about 15 to 20 seats in La Belle Province.

    • doconnor says:

      The return of Duceppe has brought the Bloc all the way up to what they got in the last election.

      • terry quinn says:

        The NDP was at almost 43% in Quebec in 2011 and now are between 32% and 34%. The bloc was at 23% in 2011 and are now at 21% to 25%. Wit the NDP down so much and the Bloc at least holding their own that will translate into seats for them. Duceppe will have all summer to get decent candidates and push his agenda. I think Mulcair has weakened substantially there sine 2011 and the numbers appear to agree with that.

    • Bill says:

      Duceppe will be easily neutralized….he’s an opportunist who sat out the hard ride and returned for the election.

      The line writes itself in any debate, first one to use it wins.

      • RogerX says:

        No, Bill …. Duceppe is the front man for multimillionaire and new PQ leader Paul-Karl Peladeau (PKP) who must have a nationalist horse running in the upcoming federal election to test the sovereignty vote for the next Quebec election.

        Duceppe is angry, very angry that nationalist quebecois were so easily tricked by Jacques and his l’Orange Crushez koolaid pisse …. and decimating his BQ party. He will be hammering les quebecois for putting their trust in dead Jacques’ NPD and being badly represented in Ottawa by a shameful bunch of incompetents unable to protect Quebec interests in Ottawa. He’ll rub it into their noses in a shock and awe campaign intended to confront and coalesce the separatist vote…. for PKP.

        I can envisage Duceppe ending up with 40 BQ MPs after the election and all at the expense of the Mulcair NPD. It will be a campaign of determining who best represents Quebec interests in Ottawa. Of course, it’s possible that the NDP/NPD are riding so high in the polls at election time, les quebecois may just jump on the Mulcair bandwagon and ignore the Duceppe BQ.

  11. Tim says:

    The Anyone-but-Harper sentiment is stronger than ever. People WILL flock to the party with the best chance a few weeks before election day. If the NDP remains relatively stable leading up to the election expect more Liberals to abandon Justin for either the cons or NDP. I predict the libs get 16% of the vote on election night.

  12. Jack Marble says:

    Death By Zingers

    “You had an option, sir!”

    “End of the century.”

    “Just visiting.”

    &

    Timing Is Everything:

    “For all of these reasons Jean Chretien advised Turner to resist pressure to run, show his stuff, and wait for a better moment later in the year. Chretien’s was the minority position among the Liberals surrounding the new prime minister. The Quebec caucus desperately wanted to seize the moment…Turner’s acceptance of this advice against his better judgment indicated how far his hubris had taken him.” (Howard Rae Penniman)

    Sound familiar?

    At this point, any attack on Harper by Trudeau only increases the likelihood of NDP victory. Hot sauce on everything for a hundred days.

  13. RogerX says:

    The biggest losers are the Trudeau Liberals who are watching their soft lefty liberal Red Grit supporters flocking back to the Dipper fold.

    Cons are viciously attacking Justin with their “Just Not Ready” meme attack ads. They are trying to shake loose the Blue Grits who fear the Dipper hordes, and to bring them under Con control.

    The NDP fleeting popularity is an inevitable outcome of this Con strategy and all is going according to plan….. to eliminate Justin and isolate Mulcair; both from Quebec.

    Once that is accomplished it will be a two horse race between Harper and Mulcair…. with Justin sucking the hind teat and ignored! Mulcair is happy and Harper is happier to see the demise of the Liberal Party before he retires as PM in 2017.

  14. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    RogerX,

    Much better men than Harper have failed to kill off the Liberal party. If you hold your breath waiting, expect to turn red in anticipation. Incredibly long wait ahead for some. Reality is a hard and unforgiving task master.

    • RogerX says:

      The federal Liberal party is killing itself after having peaked under Chretien. A succession of inept incompetent idiot leaders like Martin, Dion, Ignatieff, all succeeded in attaining new lows for the LPC …. and now puppet-actor Justin Trudeau is dragging them down steadily. Surely you don’t think that thinking Canadians will park their vote with Justin because he’s branding himself a Liberal?!

      Justin is a Joke and time will tell how bad it’s gonna be because Harper and Mulcair are both intent of decimating the remnants of the LPC in the upcoming election.
      Harper + Mulcair versus Justin (juste pas prêt) Trudeau !! Martinite Liberals have completely shit between the bedsheets by backing boy wonder!

  15. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    RogerX,

    Good brands rise and fall and rise again. Remember when it was conventional wisdom (when I was at Carleton) that Chrétien was “yesterday’s man” and see what happened…ditto for the federal PCs who bounced back from only Jean Charest and Elsie Wayne.

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