07.17.2015 12:21 PM

Ekos: everyone should be unhappy

EkosJuly

  • Liberals should be unhappy they are behind in all but one region – and in that one region, the NDP is apparently gaining.
  • Conservatives should be unhappy because folks aren’t wildly happy about the direction of the country.
  • New Democrats should be unhappy because the Bloc is back, big time, and is going to steal vote from them in Quebec.
  • The Greens should be unhappy because they are fading everywhere.

I’m unhappy because it’s rainy today and I washed my car last night.  You?

 

32 Comments

  1. GFMD says:

    Surely the most important poll any pollster could do right now is a high-intensity study of how the areas just outside of Toronto intend to vote.

  2. Matt says:

    On the whole “direction of the country” thing……

    IIRC about 2/3rds of Ontarians thought the Wynne Liberals were going in the wrong direction, and nearly 3/4 said it was time for change.

    The Liberals were re-elected with a majority.

    • JJackson says:

      Public service union members mostly in Toronto voted Liberal as a matter of survival. Horwath was unimpressive and Hudak was an idiot.

    • GFMD says:

      Ontarians were very eager indeed for change. But one whiff of Hudak and they ran for the hills. It’s unlikely the Federal opposition will replicate the mistake the OPC keeps making.

  3. Lou says:

    I am looking forward to the Toronto Star going into full campaign mode for the Dauphin and then doing a last minute about face to support Mr. Mulcair. Watching the Red Star do an about face to support John Tory in the mayoral race after canonizing Ms. Chow was amusing to say the least. Warren, I’m sure you were amused as well. The only thing worse than someone with blind conviction, is someone with no conviction. The Star has many of those.

  4. doconnor says:

    The seat predictions still only give the BQ 2 seats at 21%. Because the BQ vote is spread out across the province they have to get quite close to the NDP’s vote to start taking a lot of their seats. The Liberals and Conservatives get more seats with less votes in Quebec because their vote is more concentrated.

    Viva PR

  5. Peter says:

    As it looks grim for everyone, perhaps it’s time for a contest for some interchangeable, non-partisan whines that supporters of all parties can take comfort in and use at parties. My offerings:

    A) We’d win if only we had a different leader;

    B) Ordinary folks are on our side, but the elites will do everything they can to stop us;

    C) This used to be a great country, but now it’s going down the tubes and nobody cares.

  6. Michael Bluth says:

    WK, as you always say campaigns matter.

    It appears that the ‘Just not ready’ ad buy has worked against Justin.

    How soon do the Conservative start hitting Mulcair on the constituency expenses scandal?

    • JJackson says:

      Yes, you can right off Justin because he’s ready for political oblivion like Martin, Dion, Iggy. Canadians will only listen to him for entertainment value, pat him on the head and say “come back next time Justin and as your own man”!

    • Matt says:

      The CPC just reinforced what people began to think about Trudeau on their own after his series of verbal gaffs. Sure, they hit him a couple times after he was first elected Liberal leader, but then the just sat back and let him have his run atop the polls. Then the gaffs…then came the drop in polling numbers, then the CPC pounced.

      I suspect they are doing the same with Mulcair. He’s on top right now, but seems to have topped out at 32% to 33%. When (if) the NDP start to fall, the CPC will pounce – But they still need a somewhat strong NDP to suck votes away from the Liberals.

  7. JJackson says:

    It’s all about the urban-rural vote mix because not all votes are equally weighted. It takes more urban vote than rural votes to get elected.

    The key to the election is Ontario and Quebec, namely:

    Quebec — where the BQ is surging and the election writ has not been dropped. Are Quebecers coming out of their orange crush hangover and realizing it was a big mistake? Duceppe hasn’t started throwing lethal grenades at the NDP in Quebec and they have a significant polled vote. Also the CPC is slowly rising while the Liberals are sinking, but this may not affect final CPC election results.

    Ontario — where the CPC has most of the rural and small town votes, and the fight will be in the big city suburban barricade ridings. Liberal fortunes will hinge on Liberal Premier Wynne’s performance but all she’s doing is attacking Harper and hoping her charisma will provide Justin with coattails in Ontario. I think this strategy will fail because the NDP vote will surface and the Liberal vote will sink. Wynne is becoming political lead.

    Atlantic — can anybody tell me why tanking Liberals are so popular in the Maritimes? Has the ‘culture of defeat’ morphed into a ‘culture of political suicide’?

    • Justin says:

      With those numbers, the Bloc is headed for a surge so big that they’re headed for the same performance they got in 2011 – 23% of the vote and 4 seats. Mulcair must be panicking!1!!1

      • terry quinn says:

        Mulcair’s share of the quebec is down to 37% from 43% in 2011. That alone will cost them seats if it continues as it appears it will. Duceppe got caught sleepwalking through the last election; he won’t this time. He is a savvy character and a very good orator.

    • UFP Ambassador says:

      Wynne has charisma?! For goodness sakes I don’t feel like I need a shower after I see her speak, I feel like I need a hazmat suit she’s so toxic.

  8. JH says:

    It’s interesting that in Quebec, just prior to Duceppe’s official announcement that he was returning, the Bloc was polling at 16%. Today, without any campaigning or major announcements they are at 23%.

  9. Ridiculosity says:

    I’m unhappy because summer still hasn’t arrived. (I actually considered turning the heat on this morning.)

    In a few months, our ‘supposedly’ warmer days will be gone and all we’ll have to bitch about then is the Left dividing the progressive vote (again).

  10. SF Thomas says:

    I’m pretty sure Ekos has consistently been low-balling Liberal support by about 2 or 3 points for the last month or two. They seem to have the Liberals slightly lower than the other polling firms. Not that we are doing that great at the moment but most other polls lately have had us in the upper twenties which is enough to keep us in the running or at the very least make a half decent showing on election day.

    My experience with Ekos has also been that they frequently overestimate Green support by a percent or two on a regular basis, which often comes slightly at the expense of Liberal or NDP support..

  11. KenzoS says:

    I’m unhappy because I keep looking at politics, sort of like the way one can’t look away from a car wreck. And of course, all I see is one gigantic, fucking car wreck.

  12. Ted H says:

    It is raining because you washed your car, my grandmother always told me washing the car will make it rain. There, cause and effect, no mystery.

  13. Antonio says:

    How the hell someone with the knowledge and political savvy of Warren’s stature can’t see the trees from the forest with these polls.
    The party that is in real trouble are the libs. The BQ which was basically wiped off the electoral map has virtually the same percentage as in the last election. I think that it’s safe to say that those numbers are going to probably go down as we get closer to the election, giving Duceppe his last humiliation. The libs in Quebec are in the same boat as the BQ percentage wise so they could also get wiped off the map come election time.
    We know that. Warren knows that.

  14. Dr Strangelove says:

    The Madness of the Canadian Political Class

    Conservative Party. The Con senate and backroom in the quicksand, Flaherty, Baird, Mackay gone, near a one-man show. One man whose burning obsession is to destroy Justin Trudeau at all costs – even if that means making the NDP win. Conservatism now means destroying liberalism to enshrine socialism. The irony.

    Liberal Party. The senate liberals were purged. Chretienites, Turnerites, etc. were purged as in North Korea to the 3rd generation. The “open” non-open nomination demoralized many. The house is swept and garnished. Now, this elite cadre of liberal’s liberals drifts through summer skies on currents of hot air, “The Empty Vessel” as the Hindenburg. O the humanity! (Glad to be safely on terra firma.)

    New Democratic Party. Tom Mulcair, hustler, mercenary, once Quebec liberal, almost federal Tory (If only we’d spent the 150k the Tories moan!), now democratic socialist, devoted comrade of the Socialist International, panderer to Quebec separatism. The saga of George Papandreou and Greece is instructive here. Endless referendums, imploding economy.

    Bloc Quebecois. Exhumes the FLQ and envision fortress Quebec on the Cuban model. CBC: “Mario Beaulieu took the time during his acceptance speech to denigrate the efforts of former Bloc leaders over the past 20 years. He also invoked a phrase, ‘Nous vaincrons,’ associated with the FLQ, the group responsible for Quebec’s October Crisis.” Compulsory hair nets, Mao suits, bread rations and French all round.

    Green Party. Exemplified by Dear Leader Elizabeth May who during a wine-and-Nyquil fueled rant declared: “Omar Khadr you’ve got more class than the whole fucking cabinet.” The Islamic State concurs.

    Enjoy the war of attrition.

  15. Priyesh says:

    In Quebec, the Bloc is at the same level they were at in the 2011 election. They’ve fallen since the last poll.

    I find it disturbing the number of Liberal strategists who seem to be cheering the Bloc on.

  16. Moe Greene says:

    NDP in second place in Manitoba? –No chance in hell.

    The NDP are despised in Manitoba due to the current provincial government and any voters are itching at the opportunity to punish the party through an election. The idea that Manitobans have spontaneously forgiven the NDP for the PST hike and their catastrophic governing over the past few years is laughable to say the least.

    I seriously question the legitimacy and reliability of these polls at this point. Absolutely no cohesion in trends and reflection of political realities in regions.

    PS: Getting awfully sick of NDPers talking about “love, compassion and optimism” while taking every possibly opportunity to tell us how horrible CPC and LPC supporters are. Your feigned sanctimonious behaviour is sickening.

    • doconnor says:

      Provincially the polls have the Manitoba NDP second at 29%, a little bit behind the Federal NDP.

      The polls have their flaws but they are probably more accurate then your hate.

      • John Dough says:

        You can’t compare a provincial MB poll to a federal one.

        There are only 2 parties that are competitive in the provincial politics of Manitoba –the NDP and PC. The MB Liberals have been in general obscurity since the late 80’s. So the dynamics of federal politics and provincial politics are vastly different in Manitoba, where the federal Liberals are doing quite well. I do agree though that polls are flawed. Which is probably what Moe was trying to get at.

  17. EdwardG says:

    It’s obvious now that Justin Trudeau doesn’t have the authenticity of a leader, the life experience of a credible mature man, nor the competence to lead G7 country Canada. He’s still an immature novice and only a mouthpiece spokesperson for the federal Liberals desperately clinging to their messiah boy wonder.

    Simply put, Justin is another failed Liberal leader regardless of what he may say or promise. He truly is “just not ready” for the great responsibility to lead Canada into the fearful future.

    I tend to agree with Rex Murphy’s: The “Unbearable” Lightness of Justin Trudeau …. and he hasn’t improved in the last 2 years.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWRkB5yU1VY

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