07.11.2015 08:13 AM

Sixty-four days until the election starts!

…and maybe even sooner than that, too. Wow. 

Forum – and, remember, it’s just Forum – says the Tories and Dippers are tied for first, and the Grits are decidedly in third, and dropping. The source notwithstanding, that sounds about right to me. 

From my recent attempt at a SWOT/predictions list, here, the weather calamity stuff (massive Western Canada forest fires) and the terror stuff (terror-related arrest just this week) are already happening. With more to come, I suspect. 

Barring some life-changing events, I increasingly think this thing will be about Harper versus Mulcair. That’s the way it feels, anyway. 

So what do you think, O Readers? What’s going to happen in the next 64 days?

38 Comments

  1. Joe says:

    Its a long time until the pencil meets the paper but a long time ago I thought that the Liberals made a mistake when they opted a Ferrari pedal car as leader. Yeah it has a great name but it is still just a pedal car. I also suspect that Mulcair will come under increasing scrutiny and that won’t be kind which leads to a potential Conservative majority again.

  2. UFP Ambassador says:

    If its the mano a mano scenario, and China / Greece / markets tank the worldwide economy, the Harper safe harbour will look a lot more appealing than the complete unknown of an NDP Thomas Mulcair government. Sprinkle in a bit of ISIL here and there and we could end up with a slim Conservative majority.

  3. Seems plausible Harper will stay.

  4. davie says:

    Surely the Conservatives aren’t worried about how people in Fort St John will vote. I read the reported charges; sounds like this is the result of an investigation over some time, so the prosecution must have its ducks in a row. It would be good to see a trial fairly soon, open, rules of evidence and such, instead of locking some person away in a cell until there is a confession and the prosecution never has to show or argue its evidence.
    I am sure the fires and smoke will be on people’s minds next fall. Summer fire season has just begun, not much rain in sight, and, here in BC, we have provincial government being asked questions about its preparation and performance.

    I am sure the federal government’s leadership will be coming under a lot more scrutiny than any opposition leadership will be…unless the media is controlled by Conservative friendly interests.

  5. JH says:

    Even Kevin Page threw Harper a lifeline today on the House, saying it’s only a technical recession if there is one and that the government deserves credit for how it’s handling it. Kevin Page of all people.
    And WK at the risk of being redundant, I agree with you that it’s just Harper and Mulcair. I believe that was the tories strategy all along. Drive Trudeau down and let Mulcair finish the job. Then go toe to toe with the NDP, who Harper believes he can beat. We’ll see, but so far that strategy, if it was one, would seem to be working.

  6. Randy Banderob says:

    I think the Cons are stuck in second gear. They’re not going to gain many votes of disillusioned Grits or Dippers. As the Liberals’ fortunes fall, so will Mulcair’s rise. Becoming the national opposition and then killing it in Alberta showed voters that the NDP are not perennial losers. Have shed that moniker they have a real shot at forming a minority government.

  7. Taco says:

    Anti-Harper folk are boisterous. While the pro-Harper people are in hiding, or becoming less and less.

    The Harper government has done one thing too many to annoy people… change is in the air.

    I don’t think that a government that can’t implement a “No-Call” list, can foster a sense of national security.

    Just like selling the 407 only met Mike Harris’s deficit reduction target for one year, selling GM shares and bragging of balancing the books won’t pass the smell test with the electorate.

    Heading for a technical definition of a recession, and having Joe Oliver deny a recession, is another example.

    There is a perfect storm brewing for a Mulcair government. From Trudeau still being a kid, to a tired government out of ideas.

  8. Matt says:

    This is why polls mean nothing.

    What has happened since Forum’s last poll to see a 5% jump in CPC support in their poll released yesterday? Nothing.

    Mulcair needs to be very careful. As his numbers rise, he’ll try to move even closer to the centre. And when he does, he’ll be risking pissing off his base.

    Just a couple days ago the Dippers were talking very favorably about free trade agreements. That’s going to piss of a lot of their union support.

    • Brendan Kane says:

      What happened? If you look closer at Forum’s numbers you’ll find that the number of people who said they voted Conservatives in 2011 went up 4% from last week, and the number who said they voted Liberal in 2011 went down 3%.

  9. edward nuff says:

    i tried to watch the pan am opening ceremonies last night when stasi Steve showed up with his politburo of old white people and all i could think about is why the man who orchestrated the g20 fiaso is still front and centre and not in jail if only for the 1.2 billion collars stolen/wasted five years ago.With the west in drought mode and the prairies on fire somehow this self appointed climate change denier is still here and people will vote for his collection of trained seals. I just don’t get it. i turned off the bread and circus propaganda and bought the anarchist handbook online instead

    speaking of anarchy check out mr robot the briliiant new TV series.

    http://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/mr-robot/s01/

    • Matt says:

      Umm, those “old white people” were the Governor General, his wife and Marcel Aubut, head of the Canadian Olympic Committee.

      So, Stephen Harper is now responsible for El Nino, a phenomena that has been occuring for, oh, a few billion years, bringing warmer and dried than normal conditions out West? And he’s to blame for forest fires started by lightning strikes and careless humans?

      Moron.

      • edward nuff says:

        my hat,s off to you. Very few morons would be brave enough to actually sign a reply with their real name. So should we address you as matt moron, mr moron or just moron. Id stick to moron if i were you. No point in your reach exceeding your grasp.

        • W the K - No, not Warren says:

          Be understanding to Matt. I think he tries, he really tires, to be decent here. Unlike, say, Diefenbaker era PCPCers, that’s really hard for today’s CPCers.

          And on the rare occasion he’s even right!

  10. W the K - No, not Warren says:

    It’s summer. Ask me in 65 days.

  11. doconnor says:

    Forgot that. It’s only 204 days to the Iowa Caucuses.

  12. David says:

    All you have to do is throw a tearful news conference with Justin saying: “They make fun of my hair. God gave me perfect hair since I was a kid and I’ve learned to accept that.”

  13. smelter rat says:

    Change is coming. Orange Crush.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      smelter rat,

      I’m with you. Right now, this really feels like a three act play: first, Jack and Quebec. Second, Rachel and Alberta and finally, Thomas and much of Canada.

      Dan,

      I will likely be voting NDP. They can’t be worse than what we’ve already been stuck with.

      • terry quinn says:

        Ronald, you have gone from being a conservstive to being a Liberal and now a dipper. Pretty fickle voter I would suggest.

        • Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Terry,

          I remain a Liberal member and supporter but if nothing changes in the polls (with our party in third place) it will be logical to vote strategically as a progressive IMHO.

          As I’ve said many times over at my place, it isn’t our strategists that are responsible for Justin’s rise and subsequent downdraft. It’s Justin himself. Only Justin can pull us out of our tail spin. If he does that before or during the campaign, then of course, I will vote for our party. In short, Justin will either make or break our campaign. As everyone knows, he has already done both since becoming Liberal leader.

    • terry quinn says:

      I think it will be Orange crushed.

  14. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    You don’t win a majority when your negative personal number is at 63%. You lose an election. Harper is the next Pauline — and boy are most Canadians sick of him after nine exceedingly long years.

    Good thing he’s already bought that lot in Calgary.

  15. Steve T says:

    I really wish there had been a solid Liberal push against Harper. I think that would have been very good for the country, to put some fear into the CPC and knock them down off their high-horse. I like the party ideology, and some of what Harper has done, but not the current authoritarian approach. Character counts for a lot, and I think this iteration of the CPC has lost theirs.

    Unfortunately, there is no way on God’s green earth that I could vote NDP. I suspect that may be true for a lot of people. So, while I won’t have a CPC lawn sign this election, I may still vote for them if the alternative in my area is an NDP candidate.

    And for those who keep putting Alberta forward as proof of something, don’t kid yourself. It was a two-horse race there, and people just voted against the ruling party. In addition, as others have noted here, Notley has now opened her mouth and given a preview of what might be in store federally. Comments by federal MPs like Niki Ashton, of which more are to come I’m sure, will seal the impression that the NDP is not mature or wise enough to govern the entire country.

  16. Ty says:

    I can’t predict what order, but can predict the seat count: 1st about 140, 2nd about 110, and third about 70, Bloc gets about 10.

    Trudeau stays no matter what, given that at worst 1/2 to 2/3 of the caucus owe their leadership to him. Mulcair’s out if he’s third and maybe if a weat 2nd. Harper retires at 2nd or 3rd. If he has most seats, he announces his retirement for two years down the road, to try and keep the opposition away. Won’t work.

    Trudeau leadership stability means he won’t join in an accord or coalition as junior partner.

    Absent Lib win with NDP accord, I’m guessing another election in six months.

  17. MississaugaPeter says:

    Prediction:

    Both NDP and PCs set their sights on the Maritimes. Figure that what has worked elsewhere will also work there. Trudeau is under 20% before September 1. Less than 1 in 5 Canadians again no longer interested in the Liberals. Possibly Liberals worst showing ever. The Trudeau braintrust will blame everyone except themselves and claim they deserve another chance. Can’t predict this (but hope), some of the Trudeau apologists here will finally start drinking something else.

    Trudeau and his entourage of second-rate advisors all started by alienating Liberals (old advisors, Senators) and expecting to replace them with non-Liberals. As if folks like Eve Adams could do that. If Nash and NDPers are smart, focusing on the green lighting of Bill Blair should cost the Liberals a dozen seats in Toronto and more across university ridings across the country.

  18. Kelly says:

    Harper will get nutted by Duffy.

  19. Kelly says:

    Also, Mulcair has to keep saying Harper can’t keep you safe. He cuts safety regs in food, transport and environment and he’s incompetent on the terror file. An attack will happen again, and Harper couldn’t stop it…see…it will happen again…Canadians will die because Harper is a phony…etc.

  20. chuckercanuck says:

    So sad to be late to this party, here’s some insight for Dippers and Grits:

    The reason you will lose the election is that your narrative has been, for too long, way off from reality. You have sold yourselves a storyline that you were trying to sell to the average person.

    Stephen Harper isn’t more authoritarian than any successful Prime Minister. And, he’s not going to be remembered as corrupt. Flog those ideas all you want – they’ll sink you, not him.

    Next, the folks who vote Tory aren’t lunatics or stupid. They like Stephen Harper because he is boring and disinterested in re-engineering our lives for our own best interests. We aren’t racists, homophobic, anti-abortion – angry men who want to send immigrants back on the boats they came on. That picture you paint of Tory voters is what they call a straw man.

    Tories will win because they should. You guys will win when you show up with a more respectful view of your opponents. That disrespect is you Achilles heel.

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