Musings —09.09.2015 07:48 AM—
- The popular consensus seems to be the CPC is doing badly. Candidate controversies, refugee backlash, dropping to third place, and now unhelpful stories like this. It is not a particularly happy time for Conservatives.
- Could they actually be losing? It almost seems surreal, doesn’t it? For the past decade, Harper and his team have absolutely dominated the political landscape. They have always seemed to be the ones who were most strategic and savvy. They have always seemed to be one step ahead of everyone else. Some days, it felt like they were going to be in power forever, didn’t it?
- But a handful of polls don’t necessarily lie. Something is pulling down their campaign, gradually but undeniably. You can feel it.
- It isn’t just the refugee crisis or the candidate stuff. In an era of perpetual war, we will always have refugee crises (the Syrian one, which many folks have just noticed, has been going on for half a decade). And in the era of social media, we will always have political aspirants saying and doing stupid things – in every political party.
- So what is it? Simple: when you’ve been there a decade, voters start looking around for an alternative. In any democracy, they feel that 10 years is enough time to be running things. Voters start talking about the need for change, because they feel change is good.
- There are exceptions to that rule, of course. There is the most recent win by the Ontario Liberals. The one that Christy Clark won. There is the final win by Justin Trudeau’s father. Those majority victories, and others, defied the 10 year “rule.”
- But. But, were those situations where Grits actually won? Or, as some say, were they more accurately occasions where the Tories, per the cliche, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory?
- Bottom line: Whatever you may think of him, you have to agree that Stephen Harper is no Joe Clark or Tim Hudak. And that, if campaign experience, campaign money, and campaign discipline count – and they do – only a fool would start crowing (as some of my commenters are now doing) that the Cons are dead.
- They ain’t dead yet. Because – as everyone agrees – the real campaign is just starting.