09.10.2015 02:40 PM

Post City races to watch in the city

Right here.


  1. MA says:

    The link, as originally posted, doesn’t work – you need to chop off all the social tracking bits at the end.

  2. Derek Pearce says:

    I will be flabbergasted if Joe Oliver wins. I can’t see it, even with all the richies in Lawrence Park.

  3. JPSD says:

    “Olivia Chow was an unmitigated disaster”

    Actually, Olivia Chow IS and unmitigated disaster.

    Chow amplifies all the worst characteristics of the NDP. She is incredibly opportunistic, hugely ill-informed and displays a baffling degree of hubris. To expect voters to support her selfish hunt for power, barely a year after resigning her seat as MP and after suffering a pretty humiliating loss for mayorship, shows the utter disregard she has for the electorate.

    Its political opportunism at its worst and sadly, some Dippers like Olivia treat elected office like a right and not a privilege. To be clear, I’m not against “career politicians” in the sense that an individual has been in an elected position for an extended period of time or served at different levels of government at different stages of their career. What I am against is scrambling back-and-forth for any chance to hold some sort of power when you think you have a shot.

    I really don’t know how the NDP saw Olivia’s re-enterance into federal politics as anything other than a bad decision. How exactly are they going to convince voters in that riding to re-elect Chow if the only reason they can give is “vote for her this time because she thinks she has a shot at being in cabinet”.

    • Nicole says:

      I don’t think local residents got a sense of how poor of a communicator she was until the mayoral race. When compared to John Tory, she just didn’t seem as effective (and of course the anyone but Ford vote helped Tory). I think a lot of that will carry over to the federal race. Adam Vaughan has been his usual arrogant self, but he is simply running for re-election as opposed to Chow seeking another term in another level of government after not being elected mayor. There is still strong NDP support in the area, but I suspect that Vaughan is going to win this tight race. I also don’t believe that Chow actually lives in the new riding, which doesn’t help either. Chow’s best chance is with the anyone but Harper voters if it looks like the NDP are the best chance of getting more seats than the Conservatives. But those voters won’t be decided until much closer to election day.

      • JPSD says:

        For the record, I don’t live in the riding nor am I a Torontoian for that matter, so I don’t know exactly what the situation on the ground is like. That said, I think basic political rational can still be applied to this situation.

        The problem with Chow is that she isn’t making some sort of triumphant return back to federal politics. In fact, she barely gave her old constituents enough time to even miss her. Granted, the NDP still has a a lot of support in that riding but if I were to put myself in the shoes of those voters that could swing LPC/NDP in that riding, it would have to boil down which candidate is going to stick around after the election regardless of the national outcome of their party and which one has a history of abandoning their commitment for greener grass. And if, as you say, Olivia doesn’t actually live in the riding –well that doesn’t bode well for the level of commitment she has to the riding.

        I honestly can’t say who is and isn’t going to win this riding. I’m just saying, if Chow expects voters to vote for her again purely because the NDP is polling well enough to form government then thats not really a stellar sales-pitch.

        • Nicole says:

          I live in the riding and while discussions with my friends and neighbours aren’t scientific, there is a level of disenchantment with Chow that exists now but which was not the case the other times she ran. Adam Vaughan was a ward 20 councillor for a while giving him local recognition before he won the by-election.
          I think Vaughan has an edge, but there are also voters watching the polls so Chow could benefit from the anyone but Harper voters if the NDP are clearly in the lead.
          Chow did live in the riding when it was Trinity Spadina, but the boundary has gone south of Dundas and I thought she lived in the Annex.
          I don’t see a blow out either way.

    • torontonian says:

      Chow may have come in 3rd citywide, but she easily beat both Tory and Ford in this part of the city. And right now she’s winning the sign war, for whatever that’s worth. Vaughan is a good candidate, but I live in the riding, and if I had to bet today, I’d bet on Chow.

      • Mike says:

        But what if those signs don’t go out and vote?

      • JPSD says:

        Signs aren’t worth as much as some may think. They don’t always convert into tangible votes. As for your reference to Ford and Tory; of course she was going to do well in that part of the city. Demographically speaking, she was the candidate that most aligns with the predominant ideology in that area.

        But most importantly, that was then and this is now. People thought she had a chance at winning that mayoral contest but she lost pretty brutally. Now she’s coming back to her old riding with a lot more baggage than she did when she left. Remember that Ignatieff tag line in 2011? “He didn’t come back for you”. The same sentiment could be applied to Chow in this riding.

        • torontonian says:

          Well, I live here and I don’t get the sense that anyone cares. But Vaughan is well-liked too, so it’s not like I’m counting him out. I’m just saying don’t be shocked if Chow wins handily. She has a long history in this part of the city.

    • ralphonso says:

      Chow is an emotional communicator. Transmitting caring, empathy, humour she is excellent one on one and in small groups. But anything larger than that she is terrible. She’s the NDP’s Carolyn Bennett. Effective local representative for a riding that values small slivers of MP-voter contact over all else.

      That being said. I think she will lose. And lose big.

  4. KBab says:

    Harper’s continual lies and stalling surrounding the Syrian refugee crisis could hurt Oliver immensely and propel Mendicino to victory. Also, if the Cons are kept a few ticks below 30pts nationally then high profile Conservative candidates will be like lightening rods to the public’s anger and dissatisfaction.

    • JonT says:

      Yes…. Harper continually lies, while Justin and Mulcair are spouting fantastic promises with great zeal that is sweeping Canadians away with great hope.

      I say let’s vote for the plethora of politician’s promises and reject the lies and incompetence of the previous corrupt government.

      Of course, y’all realize that ‘promises’ are not ‘guarantees’ but if the promises make you happy, go for it.

  5. Mark says:

    Here’s another one to watch: Etobicoke Centre.No “celebrity” politicians in this case, just incumbent Ted Opitz (CPC) and Liberal challenger Borys Wrzesnewskyj. This riding was decided by just a couple of dozen votes, and a Supreme court decision, in the last election.

    Now, redistribution has altered the numbers a bit in the Conservatives’ favor, theoretically giving Opitz a 1000-vote margin over the Liberal candidate, if the results from the last election were to be repeated.

    Can the Liberals overcome that gap?:
    1. The overall “Conservatives-in-government-too-long” fatigue plays in their favour.
    2. The riding has a good history of voting Red; Liberal Wrzesnewskyj had been elected MP 3 times before losing to Opitz, and before that Alan Rock ruled this roost.
    2. The riding recently went Liberal in the provincial election, electing Yvan Baker.
    3. The Ukrainian factor (something like 5-7% of the riding has a Ukrainian background). Opitz has courted the Ukrainian population in the riding on an ongoing basis, to certain degree of success. But Wrzesnewskyi, being of Ukrainian heritage himself, has a very strong support base with that group, and there’s a sense that (a) Opitz’s support for the “Ukrainian cause” has been more words than deeds, and that (b) he’s aligned himself with some of the more fringe weirdos of the Ukrainian community. Liberal MPP Yvan Baker, mentioned above, is a protege of Wrzesnewskyj’s, and also has some Ukrainian heritage, so there is likely a very strong campaign machine in operation here, and a motivated voter group.

    On the other hand, Harper’s Ukraine position remains quite popular, especially compared to Trudeau’s wavering language on the issue. And Opitz probably has good Polish support in the riding as well.

    Will be interesting.

    • Bluegreenblogger says:

      Actually, I don’t see EC as such a tight race this time. I expect Borys to beat Opitz handily.
      Nobody has mentioned my Riding, Etobicoke Lakeshore. Iggy got slaughtered here in part because he was not well supported, partly because he reneged on a promise to move to the riding made in 2008, but mostly because he was the direct target for $millions in advertising. Nobody doubts that James Maloney will receive the full support of the EDA. Trottier, the CPC nobody who unseated Ignatieff is not going to do very well this time out. Nobody I know has even met him after four years in office. I would offer 2:1 odds in favour of a Liberal victory.
      Now with respect to genuinely interesting ridings, I am really interested in Chow vs Vaughan. Political lessons will be learned by a careful observer there. This will be a contest between two candidates, with the Party allegience being far more muddled than the norm. The local campaigns will decide the victor.
      Oliver is less interesting. His fortunes will rise or fall with the CPC’s broader measures of support. If the CPC tanks, he will lose. If they muddle through somehow, so will Oliver. My opinion anyway.

  6. davie says:

    Nanaimo Ladysmith might be interesting. Because of the move of a former NDP, from a fairly well known NDP family, to Green, the Green might be a bit closer to the NDP.

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