10.19.2015 07:00 PM

As the polls start to close, here is the prediction I made in February 2015

I wavered on it, at various stops along the way, but this is what I thought then. It may just happen tonight, too: Liberals 140, Conservatives 134, NDP 61, with the remainder going Green.

So, now you can make fun of me if I get it really wrong.  I like climbing out on limbs, what can I say?

(Oh, and the other columns include predictions from three smarter-than-me political folks. Names withheld to protect the guilty, etc.)

2015ElectionBets-1024x639

 

My predictions, made months ago.  I’ve been wrong many times before – so why stop now?

44 Comments

  1. !o! says:

    Looking at Atlantic numbers so far, LPC might do even better than I predicted in the other thread (which was 163 seats). They’re ahead not only in Sackville-Preston and Tobique-Mactaquac, but also NB southwest, Fundy Royal, Acadie-Bathurst, and St.Johns East of all places. . . It’s still early and they won’t win all of these, but more than half of these I figured were unwinnable.

  2. Matt says:

    Ekos prediction:
    Libs 151
    CPC 116
    NDP 54
    Bloc 16
    Green 1

    So far, they are pretty accurate. Of the 33 reporting Ekos had:
    Libs 30
    CPC 2
    NDP 1

    They also predicted Gail Shae, Megan Leslie, Peter Stoffer and Jack Harris would be defeated.

    http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/ekos-seat-projection/

  3. JC says:

    Well, that escalated quickly . . .

  4. fan590 says:

    9:18 pm (Eastern).

    I predicted JT would do very well in August here. Lots of laughter ensued.

    Let’s see Quebec and Ontario coming up…

    I told you JT was going to go into rock star mode.

  5. Just call me Rick says:

    My neighbours are farmers and always hammer in Blue signs within 24 hrs of me putting up a red one. They didn’t this year. Prediction: bye bye Harper ,you don’t stand a chance.

  6. fan590 says:

    9:45pm CTV news projects a LIBERAL WIN.

    I told you all here.

    Warren quoted me during the debate where I said JT stomped Steve and Sleepy Tom.

    JT brought it. He did what the populace wanted someone to do, and that was to project there anger towards the gov’t.

    This is all about JT. If he didn’t bring it every day/night Libs had no chance. BOOM!

  7. Matt says:

    Looks like a total NDP collapse.

    Wow.

  8. fan590 says:

    Minority or Majority…

    It is clear Justin Trudeau has won the confidence of the Canadian people and will be the next Prime Minister.

  9. MF says:

    Of everyone I know, I had the lowest prediction for the NDP. And they’re doing even worse than that.

  10. Derek Pearce says:

    I was told I was cocky late last week when I predicted a Lib majority, so I then tempered my own enthusiasm. Hooooooo boy!

  11. Matt says:

    congratulations Liberals.

    I take my crow with a just pinch of salt. 🙂

    • bluegreenblogger says:

      Dude, you don’t need to eat crow. You are going to have to suffer through a leadership contest in the wake of this drubbing. It won’t be pretty.

      • Matt says:

        I’m not going to suffer through anything.

        I have voted CPC since 2006, Liberal before that back to my fist vote in 1993.

        I am not now, nor have I ever been a member or donor to any federal or provincial party.

        I hope it’s a robust leadership race with new faces and new ideas that bring together Conservative, Progressive Conservative, and Libertarian ideas to the table. And not the extreme Conservative shit like abortion or extreme Libertarian shit like Freemen of the land.

        If not Brad Wall, MAYBE Kenney leader, deputy leader Michelle Rempel. Conservative and Progressive Conservative represented at the top of the party.

  12. Nosferatu200 says:

    Looks like a Liberal majority right now. Much at the expense of the NDP.

  13. patrick says:

    Liberal fucking majority. Fucking A. Fuck you Harper. Scurry off into that corporate rat hole you have so have so pandered to and lined with Canadian taxpayers hard earned dollars and please disappear from public life. Like Mulroney before you, you will never be quoted, except by pandering rags pushing a nihilistic Randian fantasy, because you have ever said anything worth quoting or remembering. And the vulgar, ugly fantasy that you have imposed on Canada will be swept away, and please, say it with me slowly…….”by a Trudeau”. A name that will now be tied to you forever. I hope you will enjoy it as much as I will.

    Oh, I swore. Two minutes in the box. I feel shame.

    As an aside, was Oliva Chow’s loss inevitable once she displayed how politically insipid she is when she ran for mayor and how much she was running on her husband’s coattails.

  14. fan590 says:

    Wow.

    I told you all. Only Scott was on board a few months ago.

    Would also like to thank Mr. Kinsella for all the hard work that it takes to run a site like this, with all the good posts and info.

    Make no mistake, this was all because of JT turning it on when the Conservatives said he didn’t have it in him.

    And it is more egg on the face of Iggy. And Chow!

    • Matt says:

      That remains to be seen.

      Was tonight really about people flocking to Trudeau because they genuinely agree with his policies or simply because they thought he was best to defeat Harper?

      The Harper boogey man is now gone.

    • Scotian says:

      With respect, I believe my comments and record on this possible outcome also saw this coming too. I’ve been saying all along that Trudeau could not be counted out, that he could come back, AND that he could get a majority. I believed that his campaign style would have power, and it clearly did, and I believed that should he and the Libs be in the lead at the end of the campaign we would see the anti-Harper vote coalesce around him, and even the soft NDP anti-Harper vote switch to him giving us a majority outcome. I am a very happy camper tonight, my decade long national nightmare is finally at an end, the Harper regime is conclusively GONE! Now begins the ugly part of getting a true read on the reality of things like our books, the damage done to the civil service, how badly our science institutions and reference libraries were undermined and destroyed, and I do not expect it to be pretty.

      I got my wish and what I worked for on both the national and riding levels, and I will go to sleep a contented man, and my wife as a contented woman, we have so badly hoped and prayed for this outcome for so long now, and it is nice to finally get what we have wanted for so long now.

      I will be curious to see how much the internet comment sections lose CPC/Harper supporting voices now that the Harper communications machine has just been taken down along with his government. It will be interesting to see just how many of these voices really were his sock puppet propagandists versus true CPC supporters on their own time.

  15. aggo says:

    I just hope to God the LPC will be nothing like the Ontario Liberals (sorry Warren).

  16. Kelly says:

    To paraphrase Chantal Hebert, just a little…the nearly 70% of Canadians who wanted their country back finally found somewhere to put their vote.

    In my view, the Harper years were an aberration. A phony government elected by way of a phony electoral system that never represented the country that we really are. I grew up in Diefenbaker’s riding. I cannot imagine him voting for the so-called Conservative Party. Canada is not British. We’re not American. We’re not Chinese, Ukrainian, Sudanese…we are ALL of those and more. The POINT of Canada is that we come from everywhere to build something better than what existed the day before. Something to build together.

    Now job one is to fix that electoral system so we can vote for the party and government we really want. Let’s push the government on this now. The job has just begun.

    • Lance says:

      ………….elected by way of a phony electoral system that never represented the country that we really are.

      Unless it is the party YOU support, even while the EXACT same system enables a government that YOU deem acceptable, as what just happened only hours ago. When it is another party coming to power the exact same way? Well, not so much, right?

      Hypocrite.

    • Matt says:

      You do see the irony that the system you criticize for giving Harper what you call a phony majority is the same system that gave Trudeau his majority tonight with just about the same popular vote percentage???

      • Kelly says:

        Trudeau is going to change the electoral system. He didn’t win a real majority either. I have voted NDP most of the time, except when I’ve lived in ridings where the Liberal Party had the best shot. This time Trudeau did offer a more progressive platform than the NDP so it wasn’t hard. But as I’ve said before we need to join the rest of the 90% of democracies in the world that use some form of proportional voting, or at the least a preferential vote. The era of a government not representing the country are over. We have 5 competitive parties we need a system that reflects that. Ours doesn’t. It’s probably the only thing in the whole world that Preston Manning and I agree on — (aside from sort of agreeing on a guaranteed annual income program that would replace all of the other government supports. His problem is he wants it at poverty level — I want it at living level, but I digress.)

        • dcardno says:

          Trudeau is going to change the electoral system.
          Well, we’ll see about that. Perhaps, after seeing that it can work for him, it will slip down the list of priorities.

  17. Matt says:

    Wonder how long it will be before a vengeful Conservative operative releases the Trudeau affidavits.

    • Kelly says:

      I wonder how long before we find out that the budget isn’t really balanced…and what it was that was getting hauled out of Finance to the shredder trucks last Friday. And what was coming out of Craig Alexander’s office, as well…

    • fan590 says:

      The Cons are much juicier.

  18. Mike says:

    Well this election proves that unless the NDP and Liberals stop splitting the progressive vote and merge we are in for perpetual CPC governments.

  19. Ron says:

    74.06 % in Peterborough – Kawartha tonight.

    The people spoke loud and clear … guys like DelMastro don’t cut it.

    Lincoln was right.

  20. Maps Onburt says:

    I’m disappointed Harper didn’t win but some of the crowing on these forums by Liberals is way over the top. What ever you think of Harper, he’s left Canada in good shape despite the nastiest global recession since the dirty thirties. We are number one in reputation, number one in the g20 for net debt to GDP, signed more free trade agreements than any government in history and has positioned us for preferential access to both the EU and the TPP. Our taxes are at the lowest point since WW2 both personally and corporate and we have the lowest GST since it was introduced. NONE of those facts can be taken away from him. I suspect that the Liberals and NDP will continue to demonize him and blame every failure on him like they did with Mike Harris. I believe that History will look back on him very positively and I wish him all the best in what ever he decides to do next. I say to my Liberal friends. You won because of a message of optimism and inclusiveness. Don’t make hypocrites of yourselves by rejoicing in the fall of our PM. He wasn’t perfect but he also wasn’t guilty of half the things he’s been accused of.

  21. aggo says:

    Anyone remember 2 or 3 years ago Peter C. Newman saying that the LPC was dead and that they’d only come back to power when the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup?

  22. Craig McKie says:

    Just watched ‘Ding Dog the Witch is Dead’ again.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHQLQ1Rc_Js

    I am relieved beyond expectations. Perhaps now we can have prop rep elections and I can vote Green as is my wont. Thank you Junior for advancing the plot. The loathsome CPC have been sent back to the evangelical barnyard where they belong.

    Wondering now if the troglodyltes have the guts to make Rempel the next leader…. perhaps not. Its a Calvinist cabal after all is it not. And its their problem.

    Been a good day, and the Jays won too 🙂

  23. Plato says:

    Dear Mr. Prime Minister:

    You have publicly vowed to do away with first-past-the-post (FPTP) in time for the next election. As this election shows, you received 39% of the popular vote but won 55% seats. The NDP won 20% popular vote but only received 13% seats. Will you honour this promise by making it your first piece of legislation?

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