10.15.2015 01:13 PM

Free tweets on today’s #Elxn42 events!

On “scandals”:

On how Harper could survive:

On the nasty stuff flying around in the dying days:

On those who say Harper’s making a mistake hanging with the Fords:

47 Comments

  1. Greyapple says:

    I think you are being overly optimistic on the Gagnier matter, it could influence votes in Quebec if nowhere else. It reeks of the same entitlement of the sponsorship scandal, which is still a sore point for the Liberals there, and gives the appearance that Trudeau is secretly in favour of the controversial Energy East Pipeline. A hot button topic in the province. Both Mulcair and Harper used the Gagnier affair in their speeches in Quebec today, indicating they feel it could weaken Liberal support there.

    Outside Quebec I think the effect will be more muted. But it does rekindle memories of why the voters turfed the Liberals 10 years ago (“real change” huh?). I don’t think the Grits can be too happy that the “ghosts of Liberal’s past” have emerged at this crucial stage of the campaign. In what context can the resignation of such a prominent campaign organizer for ethically questionable behavior (if not outright influence peddling), not hurt the party somewhat? A few petals have fallen off the Trudeau rose I think.

    In short, a campaign derailment, no. Damage, oh yeah.

    • Jack D says:

      I don’t think Warrens the one being over optimistic here, Grey.

      You’re way over estimating the potency of this matter and the effects on the electorate and underestimating the strength of momentum and the hunger for change.

      Yes, it is derailing the message for today, but damage? –not likely at all. If you think this is going to have such a profoundly negative impact on the Liberals than you’ve miscalculated the party’s proficiency in issues management.

      I’m sure the NDP are leaping with joy but this isn’t going to be the ace in the hole they’re looking for. Going full out attack on this one issue isn’t going to shore up support for the NDP because this “issue” isn’t big enough to move votes for them.

      • Greyapple says:

        It seems the Globe and Mail and I are on the same page. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/campaign-co-chair-controversy-may-curb-a-late-liberal-surge-in-quebec/article26824885/

        Sorry Jack, this is a blow to the Liberal campaign, not a fatal one by any stretch of the imagination (yes, Trudeau’s momentum will shield it somewhat), but it’s a blow, there’s no spinning out of that.

        Somehow, I think if this exact same scenario unfolded in the Conservative or NDP campaign you’d be singing a different tune (I wouldn’t be).

        • Matt says:

          From the article:
          “Mr. Trudeau tried to put the whole thing behind him, calling Mr. Gagnier’s actions “unacceptable” and “inappropriate,” and saying Thursday that his ethical standards were shown by the fact that Mr. Gagnier was out “within 24 hours” of the e-mail becoming known. The Liberals, Mr. Trudeau said, are “well aware” of perceptions and “the challenges the Liberal Party has had to address in the past.” That’s why, he said, he’s demonstrated high standards for his team.”

          THEN WHY DIDN’T YOU FIRE HIM? Why did you defend him and wait for him to resign?

          • Mike says:

            Matt I am pretty sure you and numerous other conservatives fluffed off the Duffy scandal, because after all Wright paid the money back so that it didn’t cost taxpayers anything.

            Using that same standard, conservatives should think this is no big deal to conservatives

        • Jack D says:

          You’re probably right, I won’t deny being a partisan. If the situation was turned around I probably would have a slightly different take.

          That being said, lets look at the big picture here. This story is being eaten up in today news cycles and is throwing the Liberals off message. It’s costing them precious time that left and there’s not denying that. However, with the NDP tanking the polls and only 4 days left I think the dye has already been cast for the most part on the change vote. This isn’t going to revive the NDP and the its not going to kill the Liberals.

          Take a glance at the Conservatives today, Harper is smart enough to know that this isn’t a winning issue for their cause. This election has boiled down to two simple choices, change with Liberals or continuity with Conservatives. NDP don’t factor into that what so ever and Harper understands that this issue won’t win him votes, it’ll just give the NDP something to talk about for the last few days.

          Is this an issue? — Yes
          Is going to have a profound effect? — No

  2. Vancouverois says:

    Gagnier will have zero effect on #LPC numbers, like Duffy had zero effect on #CPC’s. Scandals don’t move voters.

    Don’t they?

    The public may have become increasingly inured to scandals, but I think that this feeds into the narrative of Liberal arrogance. It isn’t going to lead to a massive shift to another party, I think; but added to other recent Liberal misteps it may make enough voters nervous enough to switch their votes.

    To people who would never vote #CPC, sure. But in #topoli, Doug Ford would’ve won if campaign had gone 2 more weeks.

    That may be true in the Toronto area. But how is this affecting swing voters in other parts of the country?

    I expect it’s giving Conservative sympathizers elsewhere the same queasy feeling they got when the Conservatives started talking about barbaric practices snitch lines. Especially when they see the very same Conservatives making claims about how Trudeau is the one who’s going to make drugs accessible to kids and put up brothels in your neighbourhood. I mean, come on.

    • Nicole says:

      I was wondering if the release date for Towhey’s book on Ford was chosen before or after the election was called. While there is only a heavily redacted excerpt it is crazy enough as it is. Once the the book is released, I would have to think that non Ford Nation conservatives would wonder what kind of judgment Harper was using to ally himself with that family in any way. The red Tories / blue Grits would in particular not want to associate with that kind of family.

  3. MC says:

    True enough re Fords, though astonishing. I guess it is less contradictory, too, for Harper to bed down with the Fords (*ick*) than for Trudeau to be sleeping with the oil industry (see Greg Vezina’s recent spate of posts).

  4. Jack D says:

    On “scandals”: You’re absolutely right.

    On Harper: Intersting. Never really thought of it that way. It could put Liberals in a tricky spot but this strategy would largely depend on exactly what kind of minority (if any) the Conservatives come out with. Also, it’ll depend on whether the TPP even survives ratification in the US.

    On nasty stuff: Its a desperate attempt at trying to hold power. Harper should have come out categorically against the claims made by his candidate, but by reinforcing the statement, Harper is displaying a propensity for severe dishonesty. Its not a good idea to keep going so negative.

    On the Fords: Again, desperate times call for desperate measures. But to be clear, strategically speaking, having the Fords visible on the campaign can shore up support for Conservatives in Ford Nation (which is quite a resilient base). However, I doubt Ford Nation was supporting anyone else to begin with. If anything, it’s preaching to the choir.

    The worst part of the Ford situation though, is that we know Harper hates them. He loathes them and he absolutely loathes the idea of having to rely on them as honoured guests at his rallies. In so much that he won’t even mention their names. Trotting out the Fords is probably the biggest contradiction to everything Harper has ever stood for; his hard on crime, anti-drug and anti-pot policies are impossible to reconcile with Rob Ford’s presence. It only feeds into the sense of desperation thats coming out of the CPC campaign in Ontario

    • Matt says:

      Not so sure about that.All the area’s that voted Ford in Toronto elected Liberals provicially

      • Jack D says:

        I should say, I’m no expert on Ontario provincial politics so I could be totally off on my assessment.

        I just assumed that those people who currently identify as members of “Ford Nation” are probably more likely to prefer Harper’s brand of conservatism. So if they’re not already plugged into the campaign for things like low-taxes and identity politics then chances are Ford Nation won’t do much in terms of attracting those people.

        Again, I’m just based this conventional political logic.

      • Reality.Bites says:

        Something else to consider is that turnout is considerably better in federal elections than municipal ones. And it’s not certain that “Ford Nation” supporters are so much Conservative loyalists as they are Ford loyalists.

        • Matt says:

          IIRC, Toronto Mayoral election 2014 had 55%. A record high. David Miller’s elections were under 40%

          Federal 2011 was about 61%

  5. Derek Pearce says:

    A quibble, Warren, and that is that “#topoli” is about Toronto, not the rest of Canada. The Fords can only be seen as a negative outside Etobicoke and blue-collar Scarborough.

  6. doconnor says:

    If Harper makes the Throne Speech about the TPP, Trudeau will just say thanks, we’ll need your support when we introduce it. The content of the Throne Speech is largely meaningless.

    • Warren says:

      It’s a confidence vote.

    • Matt says:

      The throne speech is a confidence vote. If the CPC have a minority and both the Liberals and NDP vote against it, the government.

      Assuming the Liberals are Offical opposition, and they joing up with the NDP to form government how’s it going to look if the suddenly support something they just defeated the government over?

      • Vancouverois says:

        I doubt anyone will care. Everyone expects them to vote down the Conservatives, and no amount of talking up the TPP in a Conservative Throne Speech would change that. If anything, it would make it awkward for the Conservatives to turn around and oppose the Liberals if the Liberals subsequently take over and start introducing legislation to implement it.

      • cynical says:

        The throne speech would no doubt cover many different topics. The libs can pick and choose and spin it any way they want.
        The problem comes afterward, if there is indeed a coalition with the NDP.

        TPP ratification might be moot, if Hilary gets in.

  7. Matt says:

    Should have said the government falls.

  8. Matt says:

    Re: Gagnier

    I think the NDP can make some serious noise with this.

    How many people knew that Trudeau who talks so much about climate change had as an advisor and campaign co-chair a (former?) big oil lobbyist?

    That big oil lobbyist is communicating with big oil giving them advice on when, how and who to lobby in a new Liberal government to help get Energy East pipeline approved.

    Energy East is massively unpopular in Quebec.

    Gagnier worked with Bruce Carson and even sent Carson to lobby the government.

    I doubt Trudeau’s younger environmentally minded supportrers across canada will be too happy about this.

    • Elisabeth Lindsay says:

      The expression “big” oil is such a lefty adjective to use, in a derisive way. Just as “big” banks, business, etc. I just don`t get it.

      By the way, is there such a thing as “little” oil?

    • Ted H says:

      I can’t believe this guy, Gagnier could be so f***ing stupid as to pull this off at this time, absolutely unbelievable. Maybe is a mole planted by one of the other parties.

    • Curt says:

      He is still a paid consultant with Transcanada.

      • Matt says:

        Being reportd ed now the Liberals were aware of that as he disclosed it to the party before being named campaign co-chair.

  9. MississaugaPeter says:

    My theory on MSM.

    The CBC wants Trudeau’s promises. Hates Harper for cuts and not keeping HNIC. Left of centre. But they can get money and get rid of Harper with minority.

    All others, love elections. Lots of ad revenue. Would love elections yearly. Desire minority.

    The moment anyone smells majority, the attacks happen to boost the others. I was floored how one minute Fife (maybe hoping a senatorship under Trudeau) was gushing over Trudeau, next minute when Trudeau squawks majority, all networks go crazy over the co-chair’s emails (how did this guy have time to write this as co-chair).

    Is it just me who thinks this?

  10. Mervyn Norton says:

    Trudeau may get the first turn since latest seat projections suggest Liberals could get at least 30 seats more than Cons. So nice not to have Harper around for Canada’s 150th anniversary celebrations!

    By the way, anyone think some “feeling good” supporters of Blue Jays might be more inclined to vote for “feeling good” Trudeau on their way to the ball park Monday?

  11. Kaiser Helmets 'n Motorbikes says:

    Time for a whole lotta Sophie’s choices to be made by us Cons. In Kanata we have a Liberano candidate that is an absolutely ideal future MP, and a Con who is, shall we say, a Philistine, even by Con standards…

    I hate myself… but Not much of a choice really, voting for the Philistine.

    The risk of Justin’s crew doing federally what they are doing to the Province of Ontario is just plain unacceptable. Debt piled on top of debt always ends badly, no matter what Nobel prize winning NY Times writers say. It ALWAYS ends badly for everyone.

    • doconnor says:

      The government went deep into debt for World War II. Decades of prosperity followed.

      • Vancouverois says:

        Largely because the rest of the industrialized world aside from us and the United States had been bombed back to the Stone Age. The war had also led to many new technological advances that could be put to commercial applications.

        Where’s the detailed plan that explains what they’re going to spend the money on, and how exactly those “investments” will pay back the initial debt plus interest within a reasonably amount of time?

        Trudeau has no background in economics. He’s just repeating his lines. He uses “investment in infrastructure” as a talking point, but I’m convinced he’s just throwing around buzzwords. The economy will not grow by magic just because a Liberal government decides to shovel a bunch of money toward its friends.

        • doconnor says:

          Where is the detailed evidence that cutting taxes will boast growth?

          Where is the detailed evidence that cutting deficit will boast growth? It seems to contradict the well known economics formula GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)

  12. !o! says:

    At a local event, it makes sense for SH to campaign with the Fords. Trudeau was also correct to point it out at a Quebec rally, and is likely pleased with the national attention the comment is getting– the Fords are popular in some areas of the GTA, but are universally unpopular in the rest of Canada.

    Campaigning with them may move votes in some Ontario ridings. Pointing out that SH is campaigning with them may move some votes everywhere else.

  13. James Smith says:

    Warren is 100% correct.

    Scandals impact politics (ie: resignations) in terms of intraparty politics, but they have negligible impact historically in ELECTORAL politics. That’s why guys like Warren ignore them.

    For example, this “scandal” was on page B2 of the Vancouver Sun in a small side column. Buried.

    The Vancouver Province? Didn’t cover it at all. Google News search “trudeau gagnier national post.” Its barely mentioned, and only when the lede is something else.

    Remember, us WK.com readers are freaks. This is blog is political punk rock. We are not the mainstream. Most voters won’t know, won’t care.

    The 1996 BC Election was run among the governing NDP mired in Scandals. They won a majority.

    Bill Vanderzalm in BC went UP in polls among scandals. The party forced him out.

    That’s why Duffy and Robocalls couldn’t hurt Harper. The party that understood that is ahead in the polls. The party that didn’t is headed for bronze.

    • David_M says:

      uh ya… this is not a blog
      but we are pol freaks for sure

    • Elisabeth Lindsay says:

      “Political Punk Rock”. Love that. We are all political punk rockers! My grand-daughter would be so proud of her grandma. Heh heh.

      By the way, this site is NOT a blog.

  14. ottlib says:

    Mr. Gagnier will have little impact because neither of Mr. Trudeau’s opponents can take real advantage of it.

    If the Conservatives try to push it too hard it will invite obvious comparisons to the Duffy trial. I am certain Conservatives would love to believe that Canadians have forgotten about that but it did dominate the first month of this campaign so Canadians are going to remember it.

    The only argument the NDP can make is that old, tired chestnut of “Liberal, Tory, same old story”. Unfortunately they have been trotting that out in every election for the last 6 decades and it has no effect.

    The whole situation is just proof that stupidity cuts across partisan lines.

  15. P Brenn says:

    left wing , right wing ..its all from the same bird…Gagnier , Duffy , NDP and nazi comparisons , peeing in glasses, sponsorship, soil cleanses oil spills , pregnant women can smoke dope, Carson , the pope insulter, the budget will balance itself , the fords , income splitting , coat hangers, tax credits good , tax credits bad , the rich good , the rich bad , brothels , niquaabs , jihads , harper mean , trudeau not ready , Mulcair being mulcair , May, oil bad , tarsands badder , good media , bad media, politwitter

    jiminy cricket can we vote today and be done…

    Next time i’m runnig….away

  16. cynical says:

    I can’t help but wonder what sort of devil’s bargain Harper has made with the Ford brothers in order to get this support. He must be desperate.
    Perhaps a literal ‘get out of jail free’ card for Rob? To be claimed any time in the future?

    I agree, though. I can’t see the Ford association having an effect, apart from POSSIBLY motivating the vote within Ford Nation.
    The ABC vote has already left for the NDP and Liberals by this point.

  17. Ron says:

    Nobody has talked about policy and legislation both being done in the PMO and rubber stamped by the people who are supposed to be doing it, Cabinet and Parliament.

    Nobody had the guts. Not even Mulcair.

    Big disappointment.

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