10.02.2015 07:34 AM

KCCCC Day 61: elucidating your fuzzification, every morning, gratis

 

  • Understand the polls? Me neither.  Let me elucidate my fuzzification.
  • Ekos: Their latest poll said Conservatives had “swung into the lead,” with a ten-point gap favouring Stephen Harper. Here.
  • Forum: Their latest “poll” has Harper at 34 per cent, and the Messrs. Trudeau and Mulcair tied at 27 per cent. Here.
  • ARG: Reid released one yesterday that validated Ekos/Forum, apparently, and even found exactly the same thing as Forum.  Here.
  • But. But, along comes Nanos this chilly morn, with their buckets and power index and other stuff no one understands, and they have the Liberals two points over the Conservatives, and the New Democrats way back. Here. Ditto Leger, who should stick to Quebec, found here.
  • What’s it all mean, Virginia? Well, they are media polls, being presented to you free of charge.  They are generally worth what you pay for them – which is nothing. In a tight race, freebie horserace/topline polls with a sample size of six close relatives are wildly inaccurate, 21 times out of 20.  Give or take. Blame Blue Rodeo – I certainly do.
  • So, the only thing they suggest, for sure, is that the New Democrats are in a spot of trouble.  And, yes, the Dippers have dipped in Quebec.  But if you look at their overall TROC numbers, they’re mostly where they were in 2011.  What should interest (and concern) everyone is the rapid growth of the Bloc, seen fleetingly in that aforementioned Leger, here.
  • What should the New Democrats do about that? Well, as a public service, I solve the puzzle for them in next week’s Hill Times column.  But one thing they might consider is this. And, of course, an effective final debate by Mulcair tonight, as several others have recommended.  (Would that work? Let’s put it this way: would you watch another political debate on a Friday night? Exactly.)
  • Until tomorrow, and until I am drafted to run for the Rhino Party, I offer this blanket statement.  Good night and God bless.

51 Comments

  1. The Observer says:

    If you look at the report it appears Leger, though released today, was done last week (before the CPC upswing shown in the other polls).

    Nanos on “best PM” also conforms with the other polls. It’s only Nanos’ odd “preferred person in riding” that is out of whack.

  2. CM says:

    Question WK: Are you able to tell at this point what the internal polls of each party suggest by travel schedule of each party leader for events or is too soon for that?

    • The Observer says:

      Harper was two hours deep into Quebec countryside in a non-CPC riding the other day. You don’t dedicate that kind of travel time unless you are mining for gold. I suspect CPC internals showing same swing as public ones (though perhaps even more pronounced since the still aren’t doing “likely voter models which would show higher CPC nums given the young unlikelys are over counting the left vote.)

      I see CPC majority in the cards.

      • Matt says:

        He’s also spent quite a bit of time in a couple south western Ontario ridings currently neld by the NDP.

        Internal polling must be showing them in play.

        The leaders travel within the last 5 to 7 days of the campaign should give us some hints as to what the internals are showing.

        Are they sticking to ridings/regions their party already holds – could indicate they’re in trouble.

        Are they going into ridings/regions the othe parties hold – could indicate they’re in play.

    • ottlib says:

      That is good question and it is rather interesting to speculate on it by watching the campaigns. I would approach the question a little differently than Observer and Matt though.

      The Liberals are running the campaign they want to. They are in contention and they have not make any serious errors. Justin Trudeau is looking more and more like Stephen Harper did in the last weeks of the 2006 campaign, cool, relaxed and quietly confident. That probably says a great deal on what their internal polls are indicating.

      The NDP probably has internal polls indicating the same thing as the public ones. Witness the refocusing of their campaign on the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau. They have probably concluded that winning is not likely this time so they are going to try to maintain Official Opposition status so that they can have another crack the next time.

      The Conservatives have been throwing red meat at their base for weeks. During the 2008 and 2011 campaigns they did much less of that and applied more effort to wooing voters outside of their base.

      Further for more than a decade Stephen Harper cultivated an image of the Conservative Party as inclusive and tolerant. He muzzled the less than enlightened members of his caucus and party and appointed a senior minister to reach out and build bridges with the various communities of new Canadians. It paid dividends as it probably contributed to his 2011 majority.

      In the past two weeks he undid much of that effort. There is a real danger, considering the nature of the election campaign he is currently pursuing, that all of that time, money and effort could be flushed down the toilet putting the Conservatives image back to where is was in 2004.

      So, considering that and the constant effort to energize the base what do you think the Conservatives are seeing in their internal polls?

  3. MississaugaPeter says:

    All the polls do reveal that the CONS survived Duffy and their considered by the majority refugee stance. That in itself is a Harper victory. Now with the biggest war chest by a lot, the CONS can have their negative advertising campaign go to into overdrive, and chip away the less than 10% they require for a majority.

    The debates have revealed that Trudeau is able to fend himself against Harper and Mulcair, but even his supporters wonder how he would do up against Putin.

    It was the French debate in 2011 that Quebec realized that Layton was their native son (born there, fluent in French, same beliefs). Mulcair initially played that role, but arrogance, complacency, and poor communication have resulted in the loss of that role. If Mulcair loses tonight, and Trudeau becomes the native son candidate, Trudeau gets a majority. A lot riding on tonight’s debate. I expect it to be epic!

    • Alex says:

      Quebec is the Borg of Canadian politics, as they tend to support a singe party en masse. (Liberals until 1984; PCs from 1984-1993; Bloc from 1993-2011; NDP in 2011).

      I think the key question right now in Quebec is not, “who best represents change,” but rather, “who best represents our values?” The Niqab debate is symbolic of this question. I therefore have a suspicion that the two anti-Niqab parties, i.e. the Tories and the Bloc, will duke it out for who best represents Quebec’s values, with the winner getting the prize of linking up with the Quebec-borg mind.

      I don’t see the Liberals winning many seats outside of Montreal because they are not seen as the protectors of Quebec. Thus, the Tories could shock the entire country by — in an incredible twist of irony — being the defenders of Quebec. Alternatively, and I think this is the more likely scenario, the Bloc arises from the dead and wins a ton of seats. Right now the Bloc is were the NDP was in 2011, i.e. positioning themselves for a rapid rise.

      As for the Dippers, I am starting to believe that they are doomed.

  4. !o! says:

    I actually think the liberals have this one. Once people start seeing poll results showing the NDP is dropping, there will be a herd motion effect over to the liberals from the anyone-but-harper crowd, which kind of feeds off of itself. We saw this in the last election– a lot of people attributed the NDP success to Jack Layton, and you can’t deny his charisma, but a lot of it was also simply due to the LPC collapse and the non-partisan left wanting to support the party with the biggest chance of beating the CPC. The anti-CPC vote is much higher this time around, so I expect the swing to be similarly dramatic, despite Trudeau not being Layton.

    I liked the comment about baseball yesterday. This might muffle the sound of poll results to some people.

    I also kind of think that the CPC core is less motivated to vote this time around relative to 2011, and the anti-CPC vote relatively more motivated, so while I think CPC *still* has the edge in turnout, it won’t be nearly as pronounced as 2011, when they were around 5% over what polls showed.

    • !o! says:

      To add, yes, Layton was charismatic, but the charisma and the hopey narrative that went with the persona is significantly due to people wanting their to be an alternative to Harper, coalescing around that alternative, and then seeing people coalesce around it, giving them a sense of hope. Sure, that sentiment centred around an individual, or a brand, but I’d argue it was more an effect of people projecting their hopes onto the person than the person himself. There didn’t happen to be much dissonance with Layton. Justin doesn’t have to be Jack, he just has to be someone that isn’t Harper, and isn’t too dissonant with the sentiment of change– whatever else you might think of him, he is those two things, so I imagine in the days/weeks ahead, we’ll see more of a red surge.

    • Ridiculosity says:

      I know a ton of CPC core voters. None of them are voting for Harper this time around.

      I also know that the three households on my street that have always put up big CPC signs in the past, have nothing on their lawns today – other than dead leaves.

    • Jack D says:

      Just to add to that:

      I think that not only are Conservative supporters not as motivated to get out and vote this time around, but perhaps a little weary of direction Harper is taking his campaign now. Harpers pitch on the economy is too bland; it can’t be all peachy and simultaneously volatile. So potential supporters might not care enough to vote if Harper is telling them he’s got everything in control. Yeah, there’s a fuckload of bigoted Tories out there who like the “us vs. them” angle, but if Harper thinks that stirring up xenophobia is going to shore up his votes then I think he might find the result a little bit surprising.

      Harper might find that the “report-a-muslim” strategy will backfire pretty epically if it exasperate enough anti-Harper voters to go to the polls on October 19 and back whichever party seems like it has the best chance to oust the monster. As it so happens, the NDP is trailing off into the abyss and the Liberals are now evidently the alternative to Conservatives. Harper is inadvertently going to hasten the decline of the NDP by ratcheting up the dog-whistle politics thereby driving votes to the Liberals away from the incoherent position of the NDP in Quebec.

    • Frank says:

      Yes, the baseball commentary was a very interesting ‘take’ on the situation. Using my tried and true ‘Lawn Sign Count’ method the same houses that had provincial NDP lawn signs this year are showing Conservative in increasing numbers. NDP lawn signs were out in force at the start if the election but Con signs are slowly increasing. Liberal lawn signs? Rarer than vegetarians at an Alberta Beef convention

  5. Matt says:

    I’d be interested to see the result of a Nanos with a single poll with a 1200 person sample rather than the 400 a night rolling 3 day poll.

    Just to see if his numbers change much.

    • JAM says:

      … Just look at their immediate prior poll that contains unique data. It’s a three day sample so look at the one today and compare to the one on the 29th.

    • Maps Onburt says:

      It’s bad news for my Tories but the last night’s numbers from Nano’s showed a VERY dramatic swing to the Liberals from the NDP (and a bit from the Conservatives). It completely drowned out two days of positive Conservative and negative momentum. Interesting tomorrow to see if last night’s sample was a fluke (It will show up as no growth in the Liberal numbers). If the Liberal numbers go up tomorrow, it may mean that all the MSM promoting of Trudeau as front runner for the ABC the last few days has coalesced the ABC vote around him. Things could get really scary for Mulclair (and Harper although I think the chances of Harper at least not getting a minority are still weak as long as he hangs on to 30 or more points) quickly if that’s the case.

      • Maps Onburt says:

        Did a bit more digging on this… apparently the nightly poll last night had the Liberals jump to a 10 point lead in BC stealing every vote from the Conservatives (based on a sample size of only 167 people). Did anything happen in BC that made the Liberals jump like this in the last 24 hours??? The Margin of Error is nearly 8% at that level so I’m pretty skeptical about this particular sample. They also show Mulclair going back up in Quebec.

        We’ll know more tomorrow.

  6. Adam says:

    “In a tight race, freebie horserace/topline polls with a sample size of six close relatives are wildly inaccurate, 21 times out of 20. Give or take”

    HAHA. That’s a great line.

  7. JAM says:

    “Would that work? Let’s put it this way: would you watch another political debate on a Friday night? Exactly.”

    Heh, for most normal people I would concur… for people spending their time having a conversation on the personal blog of a 1990’s LPC war room operative I think you might be surprised.

  8. cynical says:

    Your server is becoming less and less responsive. I can’t tell if it is a routing issue (I’m in BC) or not, but you might want to talk to whoever is hosting your web site.

    Pls don’t post this.

    Regards

  9. Mike says:

    If I am the NDP I am more worried about the bigger implications of the polls beyond this election.

    If you look at the 2011 results, the NDP didn’t really win many more seats outside of Quebec. It was the Orange wave in la belle province that solely propelled the NDP to its result in 2011. They have had 4 years of the advantages that go with being the Official Opposition to cement that and make inroads in the rest of Canada. To be the alternative, the government in waiting.

    They have not been able to seal the deal. If they can’t do it now, when will they ever be able to?

    Is it any wonder that the CPC has given the NDP a virtual pass, and focused all of their energy on the Liberals?

    • Vancouverois says:

      It’s true. The 2011 breakthrough in Quebec was so stunning and colossal that people tend to forget that the Orange Wave basically stopped at the Ontario border (sloshing over just a tiny bit).

      However, let’s also remember that the NDP DID make an equally stunning breakthrough at the provincial level in Alberta. I know, provincial politics are separate from federal outcomes in the province. Still, that was the moment when the federal NDP surged into the clear lead. Why were they unable to maintain it?

      (I’m sure that will be the topic of many post-election dissections, of course.)

      I’d argue that a central factor in it was the NDP’s decision to pander to the separatist movement. While it did make them more palatable to more of the francophone Quebecers they needed for their breakthrough in Quebec, it created a fundamental dilemma that is crippling them now: they can’t shore up their separatist base in Quebec without profoundly alienating their progressive base in the rest of Canada.

      Mulcair has been trying the balancing act, which made Trudeau’s zinger in the Munk debate (about how bilingualism means saying the same thing in French as you’ve said in English) so devastating.

    • MississaugaPeter says:

      The CONS must have realized that the NDP folks running the NDP campaign are even more hapless than the Liberal folks who blew a 10%+ lead they had for a year.

    • Jack D says:

      So, so true.

      I think you hit the nail on the head, Mike. The NDP had every possible advantage going into this election with 4 years of being the Official Opposition and having a virtual pass from the Conservatives. So now that they’ve squandered away their lead and now their competitive edge, what could they possibly do?

      The NDP had so much to lose and didn’t appreciate how easily it could all be lost. Now that the floor beneath them has finally given out so they could probably forget about forming government. Which is partially why they are attacking Trudeau now; they’re trying to halt their plunge and claw for second place.

      It might not even work though. Quebec isn’t the NDP’s only problem (it is their biggest, though). The NDP’s troubles also lie in Ontario where they’re bottoming out in urban centres. If the ROC starts catching wind of the NDP’s declining fortunes in Quebec than they’re finished. But Quebec is definitely a catalyst to this crisis. If the NDP can’t retain Quebec then the ROC is out of the question.

      • Maps Onburt says:

        All the parties are within 4 points of each other… I wouldn’t write them off just yet. You might remember what happened to Dion.

        • Jack D says:

          I haven’t written them off, that’s why I avoid using definitive language when speaking about the future of the NDP.

          What I am doing though is simply reviewing the realities facing the NDP. The truth is they have lost a substantial lead since the beginning of this election and have boxed themselves into a corner with their centrist, front-runner and safe campaign. I don’t see how they could veer to the left and still carry their platform with them.

          I’m just saying, anything can happen –of course. But barring a miracle of sorts, I don’t know how the NDP could reset their campaign this late into the game.

          • Matt says:

            Well, first thing they do is try to use the TPP to claim it will kill supply management in the dairy industry to try and stop their slde in Quebec where the majority of Canada’s dairy farms are. At the same time they’ll use the TPP to try and scare auto workers in Ontario the deal will cost them their jobs to try and stop their slide there.

          • Vancouverois says:

            Hey, it wasn’t so long ago that the Liberals were the ones with the commanding 40%+ lead. 😛

            Though it’s tempting to say that the NDP campaign is a disaster (mostly because I want to believe it), we STILL haven’t yet entered the final two weeks. I think that’s when the vast majority of voters will make their final decisions. Maybe the NDP has some spectacular stuff planned for then — who knows? It makes sense that they would keep their powder dry for when it counts the most… just as I’m sure the Liberals and Conservatives have.

      • Vancouverois says:

        It’s interesting to note that the Conservatives kept hammering away at Trudeau even when the NDP still looked like the one to beat.

  10. A. Voter says:

    Does anyone else remember the story that was in the National Post where the writer asked a Conservative about the then large lead the Liberals had in the polls? The Conservative rep said they weren’t worried because of what they had to release on Trudeau during the election. Something about “sworn affidavits” to back it up. No evidence of it so far.

    • Warren says:

      It would be mutually assured destruction.

    • Matt says:

      I can tell you with at least one of the affidavits regarding Trudeau there is an agreement between the Liberals, CPC AND MEDIA that it not be touched or something embarrassing about the Harpers would be released, and vise versa – if the thing about the Harpers was to get released then that affidavit about Trudeau would be released.

      Word I heard was Evan Solomon was going to make the Harper thing public, which in turn would have triggered the release of the Trudeau thing and thats the real reason he was fired by the CBC.

      Not suggesting they were trying to protect Trudeau. They were living up to the agreement reached between the Liberals, CPC and media.

  11. Al in Cranbrook says:

    Just can’t convince myself that the Nanos polling is very accurate.

    Mainstreet did a poll here in BC about a week ago, something like 2,250 sampling, which for one province is pretty thorough. CPC out in front, especially outside of Vancouver and Victoria. Partisan stuff aside, that lines up historically.

    They did a similar poll in Ontario, large sampling, CPC leading there, too. Lines up with Ekos.

    Nanos increasingly is becoming the outlier relative to other polls. And like you, I have no idea what all their indexes or whatever are supposed to translate into.

    I don’t care who is doing the polling, considering the diversity of Canada, and particularly between urban, suburban and rural, as well as regionally, a sampling of 1,200 is, for all intents and purposes, irrelevant. That breaks down to about three calls per riding.

    Here in E. Kootenay, we have new boundaries that now add Nelson into our riding. Historically, been a Reform/CA/CPC lock here. But Nelson…where the provincial government is a major employer ( see: public sector unions ), and where a large segment of the population are granola crunchers, tree huggers and elderly hippies…have traditionally voted anything but Conservative. (One of the first signs you see driving into Nelson reads, “This is a Nuclear Free Zone”. No, I’m not making this up.) The NDP candidate is the former one term mayor of Cranbrook. In our last civic election, he and the ENTIRE – as in, all of ’em – city council got turfed, a rather unique distinction in the history of civic elections…probably anywhere! It’s my guess that either a ) few in Nelson are aware of this, or more likely b ) given the nature of the town, he wears it as some sort of badge of honor. Forgive me, as I have yet to discern how some of left wing persuasion comprehend reality. And if you happen to be from Nelson, I will grant you that on the plus side, Kootenay Lake is very scenic.

    Point being, three random calls from pollsters to this riding could feasibly bump the Greens by a couple points overall…hardly indicative of anything worth mentioning.

  12. cassandra says:

    What the polls say to me is Lynton Crosby is winning. Its that or Wayne Gretzky endorsements carry alot more sway then I would have thought:P

  13. Jon Evan says:

    First the Orange crash and now the game changer Red Russian madman! “I met Putin. He’s a tough guy. He’s clear-minded. But to run Russia, you cannot be a pussycat. They play hockey very rough in the corners.”
    Yes, JT let’s invite Putin to speak at our parliament and have JC introduce his “pussycat”!!

  14. Al in Cranbrook says:

    O…M…G, this is priceless!!!

    http://www.leaderpost.com/technology/Life+without+fossil+fuels+modest+proposal/11403603/story.html

    There should be a Pulitzer Prize of something for this one!!!

    • Maps Onburt says:

      Hadn’t seen that one… you’re right, it’s brilliant. Unfortunately, nothing she is proposing would go against their crazy manifesto. If they weren’t such hypocrites, they’d see it but that’s not going to happen. They want one set of rules for us and one for them. As Orwell said… “Some pigs are more equal than others”

  15. doconnor says:

    Conservatives promise new funds to crack down on ‘barbaric cultural practices

    The other day I was thinking about the Liberal and NDP platform when I realized there is no Conservative platform. There’s nothing like the income splitting that they put forward in the last election.

    Actually their entire campaign seems to be about fear mongering about Muslims. Someone shut review the announcements they have made this election to see what percentage has been about this.

    (At least Trump fear mongers everyone)

    • Jack D says:

      They’re using advantage of incumbency to their own benefit.

      They don’t think its necessary to release dick-all in terms of meaningful policy because they’ve already been in government for 10 years and assume their history is just indicative of whats to come. Which, to be honest, is partially right.

      They’re campaigning on a platform of “more of the same”. They don’t need to tell Canadians what they intend to do because for the most part people can already assume what they’re going to do.

      But just so they aren’t completely bereft of any substance they launched their crusade on the “barbarically inclined”. The unfortunate thing, however, is that the media is sort of letting the Conservatives get away with it. Because there is nothing to report of actual value from the Conservative campaign, its all been the same identity politics shit.

      Let’s be honest here, if you’re a Conservative voter and are going to cast your ballot for Harper on the basis of his newfound lynch-mob politics then you probably haven’t grasped how long Harper has actually been in power for.

    • Maps Onburt says:

      Like the other parties, they’ve actually been announcing things pretty much every day however the MSM isn’t reporting on it because they keep going to one of:

      1) the latest poll
      2) the latest bone head facebook post by someone or
      3) the discussion on ISIS, Niqabs, Citizenship

      As an example, do you remember hearing that the Conservatives would:

      “Raise government contribution when low- and middle-income families invest in education savings plans. A family earning up to $44,000 would get $200 for the first $500 put away for a child’s higher education plan each year, while a family earning up to $88,000 would receive $100 on the first $500 each year.”

      That doesn’t sell newspapers or generate clicks. This never even got to the back page. I’d wager nobody has heard of it.

  16. Christian says:

    When they said it was going to get ugly I (and probably everyone else) figured this would mean nasty attack ads and personal insults. I had no idea it would be this:

    “The heated campaign debate over “values” and religious accommodation appears to have spurred more than just anti-Islamic rhetoric in Quebec.

    A pair of teens tore the headscarf from a pregnant woman in Montreal this week, causing her to fall on the ground. The incident prompted the Quebec national assembly to pass a unanimous motion Thursday condemning hate speech and violence against all Quebecers.”

    http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/10/02/french-debate-gives-leaders-last-major-stage-from-which-to-sway-quebecers-4/#.Vg68Nvl3mUk

    My God. What are we becomming?

    • Christian says:

      Just want to add that the Conservative Party of Canada has a lot to answer for. But the opposition. The fact that it can’t get its FUCKING act together to decisively defeat this cancerous slime has even more to answer for.

      • Scott says:

        Liberal majority coming.

        • Christian Giles says:

          Scott. We have differences. I DO NOT like your boy JT. BUT given Harper has opted for pure hate, I hope you’re right. My gut tells me it isn’t likely tho. Harper IS going to win this. Sorry but I can’t see any other alternative at this point. I hope to shit I’m wrong. IF I’m right tho, ALL progressives, regardless of NDP or Liberal affiliation are going to have to figureE out an arrangement.

          • Scott says:

            Harper and his pet hate monger from down under are making it real easy for regular folks to put aside minor disagreements and focus on getting rid of these hateful wankers.

  17. James Calhoun says:

    I think we’ll all agree the suburbs of BC are going to be important in this election, so I thought I’d add some totally unscientific and probably meaningless data to the pile: demand for books by/about the leaders in the public library systems in the lower mainland. I looked at current demand (as of today) for Mulcair’s “Strength of Conviction”, Trudeau’s “Common Ground” & the latest bio of Harper by John Ibbitson. These seem to be three most relevant books on the current election. I added the total number of holds on a book to the number of copies currently out to arrive at a number of people who intend to read/are reading the books. Trudeau is at a bit of a disadvantage here too, I’d suggest, as his book has been available the longest. Obviously reading about a leader doesn’t translate to votes for him, but it does gauge interest. If only vaguely. So here’s a snapshot of the interest of lower mainland political readers:

    At the Vancovuer Public Library
    Mulcair: 41
    Trudeau: 22
    Harper: 44

    Burnaby:
    Mulcair: 7
    Trudeau: 9
    Harper: 6

    Richmond:
    Mulcair: 4
    Trudeau: 10
    Harper: 0 –the book is on order here.

    Surrey:
    Mulcair: 10
    Trudeau: 6
    Harper: 5

    Fraser Valley Regional Library, which covers all the rest of the lower mainland: Delta, Abbotsford, Langley, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, Aldergrove, Chilliwack, Mission, Ladner, Hope.
    Mulcair: 44
    Trudeau: 10
    Harper: 31

    Like I said, probably (undoubtedly) meaningless. But a snapshot. I do think it’s fair to say though that a lot of library readers in BC are taking a close look at Mulcair and the NDP. I live in James Moore’s former riding of Coquitlam/Port Coquitlam, (Conservative for 7 of last 9 elections) and I wouldn’t be surprised if it swings orange.

  18. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Polls: divinely prescient OR out-of-this-world-disaster. Take your pick…

  19. ottlib says:

    Oh for the love of cheesecake!! A tip line?

    Are the Conservatives really suggesting that Canadians inform on their neighbours for something as vague as cultural barbaric acts? Does that mean I can inform on Nickelback and Ezra Levant? I guess what is good for the Motherland is good for Harperland.

    If Justin Trudeau would have suggested such stupidity the media would be having a field day saying that he had just pulled a Hudak buy having his very own “Guns in the Street” moment.

    I have very little respect for our MSM but if they really take this idea seriously and do not ridicule it as it so richly deserves my already low opinion of them will sink even lower, which I did not think was possible.

    In a previous comment on this thread I suggested that the Conservatives were in danger of undoing all of their outreach efforts with the communities of new Canadians. I stand corrected. The danger has passed because they have completed that work. Win or lose this election the Conservatives are going to have a hard time shaking their new image of being the party of intolerance and bigotry. Oh yes, that sound you are hearing is the sound of Jason Kenney crying as he burns up his Rolodex full of the contact information for all of those community leaders he reached out to in the last few years. They will not take his calls anyway after this election so there is no point having it anymore. Years of work down the drain and dozens of contacts to help him recruit new members to the CPC when he takes his shot at the leadership of the party gone. I almost feel sorry to the guy.

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