Musings —10.02.2015 07:34 AM—
- Understand the polls? Me neither. Let me elucidate my fuzzification.
- Ekos: Their latest poll said Conservatives had “swung into the lead,” with a ten-point gap favouring Stephen Harper. Here.
- Forum: Their latest “poll” has Harper at 34 per cent, and the Messrs. Trudeau and Mulcair tied at 27 per cent. Here.
- ARG: Reid released one yesterday that validated Ekos/Forum, apparently, and even found exactly the same thing as Forum. Here.
- But. But, along comes Nanos this chilly morn, with their buckets and power index and other stuff no one understands, and they have the Liberals two points over the Conservatives, and the New Democrats way back. Here. Ditto Leger, who should stick to Quebec, found here.
- What’s it all mean, Virginia? Well, they are media polls, being presented to you free of charge. They are generally worth what you pay for them – which is nothing. In a tight race, freebie horserace/topline polls with a sample size of six close relatives are wildly inaccurate, 21 times out of 20. Give or take. Blame Blue Rodeo – I certainly do.
- So, the only thing they suggest, for sure, is that the New Democrats are in a spot of trouble. And, yes, the Dippers have dipped in Quebec. But if you look at their overall TROC numbers, they’re mostly where they were in 2011. What should interest (and concern) everyone is the rapid growth of the Bloc, seen fleetingly in that aforementioned Leger, here.
- What should the New Democrats do about that? Well, as a public service, I solve the puzzle for them in next week’s Hill Times column. But one thing they might consider is this. And, of course, an effective final debate by Mulcair tonight, as several others have recommended. (Would that work? Let’s put it this way: would you watch another political debate on a Friday night? Exactly.)
- Until tomorrow, and until I am drafted to run for the Rhino Party, I offer this blanket statement. Good night and God bless.
In the event anyone ever lets me run for them, I apologize. For everything ever said, anywhere, by everyone. Especially me. Ever. #cdnpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) October 1, 2015