10.12.2015 08:46 AM

KCCCC Day 71: vote early and vote often in our HIGHLY-SCIENTIFIC POLL about who is winning

 

  • You know why people are lining up in record numbers at advance polling stations? BECAUSE THEY ARE SICK OF THIS STUPID ELECTION AND THEY WANT IT TO BE OVER, THAT’S WHY.
  • So, here’s a poll.  It’s really accurate and scientific.  Vote here and then you don’t have to in one of those inconvenient ones that require you to leave your house.
  • PS – If Team Ekos and Team Nanos want to go at each other in comments, go for it.  I don’t know which of you is right, but I don’t think both of you are wrong.

80 Comments

  1. Matt says:

    It is amazing isn’t it?

    Two polling companies, both doing nightly polling rolling three day averages, both using a combination of land line and cell yet they are getting such wildly different numbers for THE SAME time period.

    One thing from the last Forum, Ekos, and Angus Reid though. The Liberal surge seems to be almost exclusively due to the 18 to 34 age group. A group that historically does not vote in large numbers.

    So, this election, as always despite what the polls say, will come down to who can turn support into votes.

    • Mervyn Norton says:

      “The cellphone only population is now at least three times larger [than 2011] and tells us they are much more certain to vote than they told us last time. The cellphone only population contains lots of the younger and educated respondents who tell us they are extremely engaged and motivated by the values war that seems to underlie this election. If they show up Harper loses; if they don’t he wins.” — EKOS Polling President Frank Graves, Oct. 12.

      • Matt says:

        EC estimates for the first three days of the advanced polls:

        2.4 million.

        The total for the three days of advanced polls in 2011

        2.1 million.

        16% increase. Not as huge an increase as was being reported earlier.

  2. CanadianKate says:

    I voted for the NDP since if they get in I won’t have to listen to how their senators are embroiled in expense scandals.

    Apparently others here aren’t equally as sick of this election AND the senate scandals!

    BTW: I’m not voting until election day when the poll is in my building instead of making me line up and go through extra steps. I’ll take a chance that I won’t be hit by a bus between now and then!

  3. Matt says:

    Nanos’ numbers this morning seem to be backed up by yesterdays release from Forum Research.

    Not sure if that’s a good thing for Nanos or a bad thing for Nanos.

    One would think after EKOS’ 2011 debacle, Graves would be extra careful, quadruple checking his numbers this time around. Or not. Who knows.

  4. Derek Pearce says:

    I must say WK, because (and do most of the readers here know this?) because you are a large-L Liberal who has been unabashed about criticizing the Liberals, you have quite a loyal small-c conservative following. That’s the reason for your poll results so far, guaranteed. A sea change has occurred in the country and apart from a sure Liberal minority Justin may even get a majority.

    • Matt says:

      Careful there big guy.

      Don’t be celebrating your touchdown before it’s scored.

      • Derek Pearce says:

        Quite right, no need to get ahead of oneself. But it’s going to be at least a Liberal minority, peeps have decided it’s time for a change.

        • Brent Crofts says:

          You may very well be correct. BUT, that’s also what Adrian Dix thought. And Danielle Smith. And likely Ed Miliband. And George Smitherman. It isn’t a good idea to do a victory lap before the game is over.

    • DougM says:

      Derek I think you’ll find a lot of us are large C conservatives. We just like dialog rather than vitriol. It’s healthy for all sides.

      • Bill Templeman says:

        You’re right, Doug M. Dialogue trumps Question Period any day of the week. When the dust settles and this election is over, Conservatives, Liberals, NDPers and Greens are going to have to talk with each other and run this country

  5. dean sherratt says:

    First, yes turnout at the Advance is up some 36%…it should be noted that voting in the advance has become more and more popular after each election. Why I have no clue unless you are not going to be around on election day when its far easier and less time consuming to just go to your local poll.

    That being said, I suspect that the Liberals are moving into a pretty secure minority government territory…based mostly on NDP voters not realizing that ABC never means voting NDP in return…

    The Liberals most recent trend seems to be based almost entirely in Ontario…I was willing to bet on a reaction against the Liberals because of Premier Wynne’s unpopularity and very public support of Justin but there it is…

    So the Liberals will win on their own or have the NDP put them there. At some point however, the NDP must hit their base vote and this trend stop…

    • Matt says:

      Well, so far 1.6 million (over Friday and Saturday) compared to 2.1 million over the three day advanced poll in 2011. This election should be higher anyway due to there being 4 days instead of three.

      Now as to which party that favours…..well, that’s all up to the individuals personal bias isn’t it.

      • KBab says:

        Speaking to Elections Canada staff I was given two reasons for the higher turnout: one, students are home for Thanksgiving weekend and in Ontario Universities it is reading week, and two, “people seem to be really interested in this election.” Read into that what you will, but I think it is certainly not what the Conservatives wished for.

        • Matt says:

          Really not what the Conservatives wished for?

          What are you basing that on, other than your own personal anti Conservative bias?

          All the footage of line ups I’ve seen in the news – there aren’t many young people standing there. And the 2011 election was in May. The universities were out by that time.

          CBC was at two polling stations in Toronto today asking why the people were voting today. Overwhelming response was “Just don’t want to have to rush around on election day.”

          • KBab says:

            Are you new to this Matt? What do you think the so-called Fair Elections Act had as its aim? And don’t say it was designed to cut down on voter fraud because that is a pipe-line full of shit leading right into the PMO. It did nothing of the sort. That is well established. What it did do was limit the powers of Elections Canada, cut back their budget, and alter their mandate. Elections Canada is now not only underfunded, understaffed and severely limited in how, when, and where they are able promote voting or encourage democratic participation. Barriers have been thrown up to discourage voting and the right to vote was taken away from over 1.5 million ex-pats. It obvious to even the most casual observer that these are voter suppression tactics. To deny it is to be willfully blind, patently partisan, or deliberately disingenuous. Take your pick.

  6. A. Voter says:

    The NDP will be the winner if the Liberals win a minority. The NDP and Liberals are winners if the Conservatives get a minority. The Conservatives are winners in that they are still a viable party after a decade in power, with an unpopular leader and a so-so campaign.
    Politicians like Chretien and McKenna were winners because the Conservatives lost their base. That hasn’t happened this time. Historically, the Liberals don’t win majority federal governments when the Conservatives are united. But also historically, according to Eric Grenier in the Glober and Mail, the Liberals lose six points in the polls over an election and that hasn’t happened. The outcome depends on Quebec.

    • Mike says:

      “Historically, the Liberals don’t win majority federal governments when the Conservatives are united.”

      PET, St Laurent, King and Laurier would disagree with you. Unless of course you think history started in 1993

  7. There’s more of these folks than the rest of us:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/canada-shows-its-age-as-seniors-outnumber-children-for-first-time/article26595171/

    They typically vote Conservative and they always come out and vote. I think they might be the difference between the Cons winning or losing.

    • Mike says:

      I think we may want to rethink that old chestnut. It has always been assumed that seniors were more conservative. But the group now turning 65 was born in 1950, they grew up and came of age in the 1960s. That was not exactly a conservative time. This generation of seniors is probably a lot more progressive than any that came before it.

    • KBab says:

      If the Liberals stave off a surgical Conservative minority, it will be because of the Millennials. And this would be a natural generational shift.

      Generation X may rise to power on their shoulders.

    • JamesSmith says:

      That number is about Seniors 65+ outnumbering CHILDREN. Not Adult voters 18-64.

      The birth rate is declining because people can’t afford to have kids when the middle class struggles in Harper’s Canada.

  8. Brent Crofts says:

    Went to vote yesterday here in my riding of Kanata-Carleton, which 308.com is giving to the Liberals. I’m 42 and I was the youngest one there by far. This riding has gone Conservative since 2004. Back in 2000, it went Reform (!). Something just seems off about these predictions, but it is only one polling station in one riding, I suppose. Very little would surprise me a week from today.

    • Robin says:

      I’m 48 and I felt like a youngster at my advanced polling booth.

      I know this is speculative but I don’t see the youth vote showing up this time. I can’t see enough to engage them. Unfortunate because I know that favours Harper.

    • cynical says:

      The riding is also home to a city councillor who was a loyal Tory until Harper came into power. Now she’s an active Liberal supporter, and quite influential.

      • JamesSmith says:

        So…you guys went to vote at an advanced poll, on a Sunday, and saw lots of old people there (probably after Church).

        Therefore there is no turnout for people under 65.

        Gotcha.

    • Matt says:

      308’s federal seat projection record isn’t exactly stellar

      https://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/results.html

    • Kelly says:

      I believe the riding boundaries for your riding changed. Mr. (Un)fair Elections Act chose to run in the more rural of the two ridings created by the redistribution…which says something about why Kanata (used) to be “conservative”.

      There were a bunch of ridings like this in Saskatoon, as well, where a big chunk of the riding was in farm country which voted 80% conservative while the urban section voted 20% conservative and you had urbanites represented by a very unrepresentative representative. That will almost certainly change in Saskatoon, now that the riding boundaries have shifted to be all urban or all rural.

      On the other hand there are a bunch of new suburban ridings that were basically created by splitting already conservative ridings into two so those extra 30 ridings could go largely conservative — but not necessarily since many of them appear to be in play.

  9. For those who can follow french reasonably well, Mr. Trudeau looked a bit smug at times, but still probably won over most of the québecois audience not tuned-in to the Habs-Sens game with his pitch-perfect interview on Tout le Monde Va en Parle yesterday night. Check the applause about six minutes in after his response on the niqab debate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuOmp9OXa_M

  10. Darren H says:

    The Nanos poll is horseshit. The question is which TWO parties are you likely to vote for? Of course the Centre party will be in the lead. Kind of manufacturing the results they want to see I’d say. Oct 19th will tell the tale and the “anyone but Harper” crowd is going to be disappointed. “Subversion of Democracy” they will shout. Our democracy is subverted through hack news sites like CBC, and blog sites like Huffpost who tell all they lies and half truths they like because no one truly is accountable.

  11. Matt says:

    Anyone know who EKOS, Angus Reid, Abacus are polling for?

    Nanos = CTV/Globe and Mail

    Forum = Toronto Star

    Mainstreet = Postmedia

    Ipsos = Global Television

  12. Bill From Leslieville says:

    Seems most of the polls are showing the Liberals leading now. I don’t care as along as Harper doesn’t form government. It’s not a good thing to have any party in power for too long.

  13. Steve Warnar says:

    People will be voting between now and October 19th
    Then the scoreboard will tell us who won
    Then the press will tell us why ….probably for months to come
    I don’t plan to listen to them then as I don’t now
    Just gonna vote ,that’s all I got

  14. doconnor says:

    Define winning. Do you mean get the most seats, form the next government or form the government the most before the next election?

  15. Alex says:

    I voted NDP because I live in Paul Dewars riding. But like many ABC voters in Ottawa I would have likely voted Grit if I lived elsewhere in the city. My sense is that Team Blue is going to have a bad day in the National Capital Region come election day.

  16. Mike says:

    All the polls that have the party I don’t like leading are horseshit, and those pollsters have a long history of inaccuracy.

    The only polls to be believed and relied on are the ones that have my guy in first. Those pollsters have a record of unmatched accuracy and reliability.

  17. !o! says:

    The CPC gain in the recent EKOS poll is due largely to their polling showing 3% gains in BC, ON, and Atlantic. The Nanos poll over the same time period shows CPC down in BC, flat in ON, up slightly in Atlantic.
    The LPC in the same EKOS poll is up 3 in BC, flat in ON, and down 12 in Atlantic. In the Nanos poll they are up 1 in BC, up 3 in ON, and flat in Atlantic.

    Changes in Atlantic LPC numbers are clearly statistical jitter, though the CPC may be up marginally (for whatever it’s worth). LPC is probably up in BC, and this is bolstered by the fact that the NDP is down in BC in both polls. No pattern in ON, though I imagine momentum is good for LPC since, again, NDP is clearly down in both polls (and has been consistently dropping in ON in all polls that show provincial numbers).

  18. Ridiculosity says:

    Our household just finished voting at the Advance Polls.

    Election Canada employees are gobsmacked at the turnout.

    I had the same reaction when I saw the line-up running right outside the community centre and into the park…

  19. ottlib says:

    The polls are unanimous on who is going to win. They all agree that the New Green Liberal Conservative Democratic Bloc Party of Canada is going to win every seat with just under 100% of the popular vote. With just one week to go it is a foregone conclusion.

    This all might have been different if the Rhino Party was running this time. Unfortunately, each and every one of their candidates missed the cut-off to register a candidates for the election by one hour as a result of the change to Daylight Savings Time.

  20. Matt says:

    From EKOS today re: Advanced polls:

    The election outcome will hinge on who is most engaged around the values issues. The higher the levels of overall engagement, the higher the turnout and the poorer Mr. Harper’s prospects. Of great interest is the huge advance turnout which we have been tracking in our polling as well. Interestingly both the Conservatives and Liberals are running neck and neck there and the NDP isn’t doing very well.

    http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/so-who-will-win-the-42nd-federal-election/

    • Cory says:

      Correct me if I’m wrong but if higher voter turnout is bad for Harper, then how did he win a majority in 2011 when there was an increase in voter turnout compared to 2008?

      • Vancouverois says:

        If overall turnout is higher than last election, that may indeed be a sign that more voters want to get rid of the incumbent. But at this point I wouldn’t ascribe any particular significance to the increase in early voting.

        People who say higher early voting is bad for Harper are assuming that it’s happening because so many people are eager to get rid of him. While that’s possible, it could also just be because people wanted to get voting out of the way. Or it could be because Conservative voters are more committed to making sure their votes are counted, so more of them are voting early. Or it could be that more people are aware that early voting is an option.

  21. Your observation is both funny and true. Voted as soon as possible (without standing in line like there was free beer being handed out) myself.

  22. Peter O'Donnell says:

    I never thought I would live long enough to say this, but our freedoms would be safer with the NDP in power than any other party. Well, perhaps the Libertarian Party would be a better option, but with a $200 election budget, you’re not going to get many votes, eh?

  23. Jack D says:

    I can’t possibly imagine a scenario at this point where Thomas Mulcair doesn’t resign as leader of the NDP on election night. We may question who’s leading in the polls, but theres no doubt who’s losing –its the NDP. They’re looking at being relegated to their traditional third-party status in the HoC and I can’t imagine Mulcair sticking around to take the avalanche of sh*t headed his was from the Dipper base. Its one thing to not make gains on the NDP’s seat count but to lose pretty much everything that Layton gained would be political death for him.

    Mulcair would rather have his eyes gouged out than play second fiddle to Trudeau in any situation and he’s made it virtually impossible for Trudeau to work with a guy who clearly has absolutely no respect for him.

    The knives are being sharpened as we speak and will come out for Mulcair, McGrath and Lavigne on the 19th night. I look forward to hearing “the prosecutor’s” concession speech.

    • cynical says:

      And it will be a loss to Parliament if Trudeau turns out to be a bozo, which frankly is an even-money bet at the moment, even though I’m voting Lib.
      ABC all the way.

    • godot10 says:

      Thomas Mulcair can demand cabinet positions for himself and a couple of his MP’s after the election as a condition for NDP support of a government. Why would he resign as leader?
      Layton moved the bar for NDP support…that it should require Cabinet positions. Mulcair has more power in 3rd with nobody winning a majority than he did as Opposition leader.

      If Trudeau doesn’t accept the demand, we end up gong back to the polls. How can Trudeau NOT offer him and the NDP a couple of Cabinet positions?

      It would be a huge mistake for the NDP to just rollover and not drive a hard bargain with Trudeau.

      • Cory says:

        Problem is, you’d then have cabinet members peaking out and possibly voting against things like the TPP.

        • Vancouverois says:

          So? I imagine the NDP would insist that the Liberals repudiate the TPP as part of the deal.

          • Cory says:

            I don’t believe the Liberals would ever allow that. Their blue/business side would revolt.

          • Vancouverois says:

            And if the NDP doesn’t insist on it, it’s the NDP that faces an internal revolt. Which is why voting down a Conservative minority may not be as simple a proposition as anti-Harper voters want to believe.

  24. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    This is how the vote broke down in my immediate family: two Conservatives, two Liberals and one New Democrat.

  25. Ironisle says:

    Harper confirmed the CPC is behind, with the statement ” the only poll that matters is the one on election day”……a sure sign when a party is behind!!!!

    • Matt says:

      Harper’s team also went to the media in 2011 and told them they ran the numbers and found there was no way they were going to be able to win a majority. They won a majority.

  26. Kev says:

    The polls are lagging what’s really going on out there, and that is a collapse of Red Tory and Red Dipper voters into the Liberal camp.

    It is happening fast and hard.

    Liberal minority?

    By Monday it may well be slim majority.

    Interesting times.

  27. Ropshin says:

    If Tom Mulcair has the balance he will surely stay on as NDP leader to ensure that Harper is ousted.

  28. The Observer says:

    The likely voter model, abandoned for the horserace narrative.

    This is how it’s done:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/111268/how-gallups-likely-voter-models-work.aspx

    Read between the “but it all depends on voter turnout” and “Older voters turnout” lines. The CPC has a clear lead among those who will actually vote. But staying in the horserace herd is where the pollsters want to be it seems.

    I suspect Nanos will be the most damaged my relying on the inherently faulty “registered voter” model.

    • Scott says:

      Jeez, it’s too bad Nanos doesn’t have you for an advisor. With your vast intuitive powers you could have steering him right.

  29. Cath says:

    I voted in the advance poll so that I could shut out the rest of the spin and crap, fast forward through ads and generally ignore the next week.
    I’ve voted Conservative and Liberal in the past. Chretien Liberal….NOT Martin Liberal. Never NDP……….EVER.
    I visit Warren’s website because it’s better than any other political blog I’ve visited. He only babysits when necessary and doesn’t mind the “other” POV.

    I think, and I hope that this election will allow voters a referendum on pollsters and MSM…………..prove them ALL wrong.

  30. billg says:

    I have a situation that might prove to be an issue for both the NDP and the Liberals.
    Both of my children have recently graduated from University, both are left wing in their politics, both are very much anti Harper and, both have plenty of facebook posts with anti conservative cartoons etc.
    Their voting cards are on the kitchen table and, if this is like the last election that’s where they will remain.
    I’m past the point of urging them to actually vote, but, marvel at a generation that believes leaving comments on web sites is a path to change.
    The problem both the Liberals and the NDP will have is getting those people to vote instead of posting cartoons and nasty comments.
    Guess we’ll see.

    • Matt says:

      It’s called slacktivism.

      They think clicking “like” on a facebook page or retweeting some twitter post means they’re changing the world.

      But they won’t get off their asses to actually do something to affect actual change.

      Hell, I know 40 year olds like that.

  31. William says:

    Ekos and Mainstreet say a Tory lead, polling 1400 and 5000+ respectively, vs Nanos “push a button on your phone” rolling daily average consisting of 400 respondents showing the liberals on the move. Which would you believe? I’ll take Mainstreet at 5000+ on October 9th vs Nano’s 400 every day. It’s going to be a slim Harper majority, or a minority convservative gov, with the very broke liberals propping them up, and if young Trudeau does win a minority, he best hope it isn’t a repeat of Joe Clark and his Dad, because that means Harper comes back even stronger.

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