12.13.2015 11:55 AM

Election 2015: the bettors are back

Way back in March or so, four of us – former Liberal leader senior staffers all – gathered to bet on the outcome of the election. I won’t reveal the identities of the other three, but my prediction is seen below. 

Last night, we gathered again chez nous.  We had fun debating it all. I had predicted a Liberal win, bien sur, but I sure overestimated CPC support in Ontario. Otherwise, not too bad. 

Been quite a year, politically. What’s your bet for 2016?

  

6 Comments

  1. dean sherratt says:

    My prediction was based on the very last polls that aligned with each other on election eve. I looked at them and with almost no hesitation wrote down 180, 100, 56 and 2…Didn’t think the Bloc could win seats with few votes and that is that.

    2016 is going to be a golden year for the Liberals as across Canada there is hardly any issue on which there is deep conflict between the Liberal/NDP provincial governments and the Liberals federally. Everyone is thinking the same and should be doing the same. Every voice of authority is going to be very liberal sounding. I think he will start filling up the Senate with people who don’t realize that they are Liberal but will fit his world view nicely. Who cares about BC…he doesn’t need their support. He is going to have to move domestically on implementing what he wants out of the Paris agreement (he can do either quite a lot or very little given its wording). I suspect any negative impact won’t be felt for 2017 or 2018. He will be on maximum spending mode for the year and this will fill up a lot of positive press. Again however, if the economy sours or the spending is badly wasted (I refuse to say invested) the population having drunk 6-8 Trudeau “doubles” might wake up with a hang-over…

    Brad Wall will win in Saskatchewan but that’s not much of cloud in the sky…

  2. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Serious bumps in the road and uncomprehensible stumbles in 2016. However, they are smart enough not to follow the Wynne approach — which isn’t winning or working.

  3. Jack D says:

    2016 Predictions

    USA: Trump drops out of Republican leadership race to run as as independent out of hubris and facing growing rejection from party brass. GOP votes consolidate behind another nut job and right-wing vote divides between Trump and said nut job (not Jeb Bush though, he drops out due to a massive failure of a campaign). Hilary Clinton, Sanders running mate on Democratic ticket; Clinton/Sanders take the WH 2016 easily.

    Canada: Start of CPC leadership campaign; expect the completely expected. Thomas Mulcair faces leadership review, ends up getting just around 60% support from party, promises to step aside by the end of 2017, thus triggering a leadership race for the NDP. Liberals continue to ride their popularity and enjoy their honeymoon. They make meaningful change in the governance of Canada and repairing and reversing the damage done by the Harper decade. However, increasingly they will face criticisms while the shine of “optimism” starts to wear off in the winds of reality.

  4. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    A Prime Minister is supposed to represent every Canadian in every province and territory. Harper couldn’t really do that. Let’s hope Trudeau does a better job.

  5. Kev says:

    BC 14 L, 14L, 14L? Talk about hedging your bets…

  6. monkey says:

    There are only two provincial elections so here are my predictions

    Saskatchewan: Brad Wall is easily re-elected as premier with only a slight drop in support but still wins a landslide.
    Manitoba: The PCs win a majority while the Liberals form the official opposition by dominating Winnipeg much like Sharon Carstairs did a quarter of a century ago while the NDP get decimated.

    Federally, the Liberals continue to maintain a comfortable lead in the polls but their numbers come down to earth a bit more. Tory support remains rock solid as their base is but doesn’t expand beyond it. It will be 2017 that will be the interesting one to watch in terms of polls. The one good news for Tories is the provincial Liberal governments all see their numbers fall further.

    In the US, Trump wins the GOP nomination and Clinton the Democrat. Clinton wins but just barely and only because of a record turnout amongst minority voters who are terrified of a Trump presidency. Trump wins a record level of support amongst white voters winning over 60% but due to changing demographics that is not enough as well as turnout amongst whites is much higher amongst older whites than younger ones. Democrats makes gains in the senate and congress, but GOP still retains both by a smaller margin. Again almost all the GOP losses are in districts with large minority votes who show up en masse to keep Trump out. Also Marijuana gets legalized by popular initiative in a few more Western states.

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