Musings —12.07.2016 02:10 PM
—Hate to say I told you so, but I told you so
The pundits and partisans may not like it, but the people still love Trudeau, big time.
The innkeeper has given him the keys to the honeymoon suite, because the honeymoon sure ain’t ending.
Trudeau honeymoon will win like all honeymoons do, but until he does something that angers people I suspect his numbers will stay high. By the 2019 I don’t expect his approval rating to be as high as now since he will have to make some hard decisions, but that doesn’t mean he won’t win a landslide. The Ontario Liberals have lasted as long as they did due to lousy opponents. So if the Conservatives are serious about winning or at least forming a stronger opposition get a reasonable leader like Raitt or Chong, not someone like Leitch who will ensure the party loses badly. Leitch’s ideas may sell well in US and Europe, but most Canadians are proud of the fact we are on the last progressive country left in the West and wish to stay this way. Conservatives win on moderate fiscally conservative policies, not identity politics or social conservatism. If you look at the three centre-right premiers, they’ve all focused on reasonable moderate fiscal policies not social conservatism or identity politics thus why two are still popular and the other while not as popular is still competitive despite her party being in power almost 16 years.
Every time Kelly Leitch opens her mouth or uses the word elites…folks shake their head. Then Trost, Alexander and the entire Conservative shitshow…
Meanwhile the Ndp works hard at being irrelavent.
Trudeau sits back and smiles…
It’s so depressing…doesn’t matter what the Libs do, or don’t do, or pretend to do, so many people still like them
Could be, in part, uncertainty about leadership of the other main parties. I notice May’s Greens have a bit more support.
Today in QP both Mulcair and Ambrose, especially the latter, gave the PM a pretty good rip. Sometimes evasion and fluff can catch up to a guy.
Yes, Mulcair owns question period, doesn’t he? Remember how he used to eviscerate the tories?
Mulcair opened by laughing, ‘Hey, I get to question the Prime Minister, and it doesn’t cost me $1 500.’
Our PM might find really really important things to do outside the house during question period until next June.
He’s made some mistakes, and over promised on some things, but he and his government are still miles ahead of the last 10 years’ shitshow.
This
Lol…ah, smelter, I love it – ‘over promised.”
Hate to say “you are right,” but I think you are…
I worry that so many people are dismissing KL so easily. Almost all were equally dismissive of Trump. I don’t think I understand this smugness. It is not the time to be complacent about the general anger and contempt that people have with government in general. Witness Brexit and the American election; the electorate seems to be willing to cut off their noses to spite their faces.
Nobody’s smug. Or I’m not. I think she’s probably going to win with Nick in her corner.
Warren – You might want to check the most recent Forum poll which somewhat corresponds with the most recent Ekos one. Both still show Trudeau ahead but only by 8 and 10 points respectively, not the 20 point plus so perhaps the recent misfires are taking a bit of a toll. Off course the next election is almost 3 years away and these are just two polls so they could be rogue ones, but the Liberals are best to be careful. Now yes I understand Trudeau needs to spend some of his political capital and now is the time to do it, but he should avoid doing stupid things and otherwise lose it on things that matter and benefit the country (which in the case of pipeline approval it does), not silly things like cash for access or his handling of electoral reform. What if the Tories are smarter than you think and choose Chong or Raitt. Because no one will win the Tory leadership on first ballot its tough to know who they will choose will for the Dippers they may lack candidates but Angus and Julian are both strong decent ones who won’t be able to win but certainly could win back some of their traditional support. I still think Trudeau will likely win in 2019, but arrogance and sloppiness is what brings leaders down so no leader should think they have the next election in the basket ever. In many ways I think it was this attitude by the Harper government that was their undoing.
Did you just recommend we take Forum seriously?
No, but they were pretty accurate in the last election so I wouldn’t totally ignore them. Lets see if other pollsters agree or not, they are the first since the recent controversies so if wrong others will show differently and if right others will say the same.