02.21.2017 02:07 PM

CPC leadership: no one ever listens to me, etc.

From Abacus, the best in the biz.  Huge sample.

Check it out:


Key takeaways:

  • Leitch’s negatives are a tad under four times her positives – and they’ve grown.
  • O’Leary’s negatives – also huge.  The more you see of him, the more you hate him, Canada.
  • Mad Max or the fiery-haired Cape Breton lady are the only credible choices, at this point. One needs better English, the other needs better French, true.  But they’re the ones voters – not those voting in this excruciatingly-long leadership marathon  – will even consider.
  • Canada isn’t Trumpland. CANADA ISN’T TRUMPLAND.  Never has been, never will be.

Will anyone listen to me? Of course not.  No one ever listens to me.

Besides, what do I know? Nothing. Three Chretien majorities, three McGuinty majorities.  I clearly know nothing about politics.

Trudeau is going to be Prime Minister until he’s old enough to receive Shoppers’ senior discounts. Carry on as you were.


  1. Ronald O'Dowd says:


    Vulnerable is in the eye of the beholder. And to yours truly, this PM already looks shaky.

    • Ted H says:

      Oh I think that’s a real stretch, don’t bet on it. There isn’t enough lipstick in the world to pretty up all those Conservative pigs and not one of them is anywhere near the campaigner JT is. We are going to be basking in the sunny ways for a while, before we have to enter another period of Conservative darkness.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:


        I see it this way: if we get Justin in the next election, Liberals win. However, if we get the channeling of Katie and Gerald,…ça c’est un problème.

        • Cory says:

          PMJT isn’t the best when he’s on the defensive and he’s never had to defend a record in an election. If we get the PM from his recent “meet the people” tour where he refuses to answer questions in English and tells Chiefs that he knows better than them what their children need and what they need is more canoes, it could get interesting.

  2. David_M says:

    The 27% negative impression for Ms. Ambrose is somewhat surprising. I thought she would be more universally liked than most others.

  3. Charlie says:

    So, despite all the free media coverage Kellie Leitch has managed to get thus far, 51% of Canadian respondents and 44% of Conservative voters don’t give a shit about her with only 14% of Conservative voters responding positively to her? For a campaign that was meant to polarize the CPC vote, she’s achieve absolutely nothing in the way of being a top contender. Even the Messiah from Boston is registering higher numbers in the CPC than she is; albeit, with insanely high negatives amongst Canadian voters.

    One thing that sticks out to me from this poll: The broader Canadian population and the Conservative party aren’t even remotely on the same page in terms of who they see as a plausible leader.

  4. Robert Frindt says:

    The best predictor of the US election outcome was the 70+ percent who thought the country was on the “wrong track”, not Hillary’s polls or Obama’s approval rating.

    If I was an incumbent politician in Ottawa, I would be looking carefully at these poll results.


    eg. 65% agree (35% strongly/30% somewhat) ‘Canada needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful’,
    56% agree (26% strongly/31% somewhat) ‘traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me’

  5. Kevin says:

    Interesting. Like David_M, I’m also surprised at Ms. Ambrose’s negatives. And Scheer isn’t moving anywhere.

    So an intelligent choice for the CPC would be either Bernier or Raitt. I think it’s pretty fair to say you mention Mad Max to the average Canadian and all they think about are chesty women and bikers.

  6. doconnor says:

    Rob Ford, had all the bluster and simplistic solutions of Trump, but with much less racism. Someone like that could win nationally. O’Leary might fit the mold. It’s harder for someone like that to win a leadership campaign when most voters are highly politically aware.

  7. PJH says:

    PM Trudeau’s father was elected in an overwhelming wave of Trudeaumania……..yet was reduced to a minority gov’t four short years later.

    As the bloom fades from the rose, I suspect history will repeat itself……

    • jay says:

      If so, then he’s in for another 12 years after that–not counting a very brief stint in opposition while the well-meaning Michael Chong leads a short-lived minority government. I’m all in!

      • PJH says:

        The son is not the father……nor does he have the likes of Keith Davey, Jim Coutts, Michael Pitfield, Marc Lalonde, and Allan MacEachen surrounding him either……Powerhouses all…….

        • jay says:

          So history won’t repeat itself–as the bloom fades from the rose. . . . Did you just like the phrase?

          • PJH says:

            I was speaking specifically to Justin’s first term…..and Justin will not have the continued success of his father for the aforementioned reasons….nuff said…..

  8. Robert Viera says:

    Three McGuinty majorities?

  9. Raymond Benedict says:

    Personally, I am hoping that Michael Chong would win as he is the most progressive of them all, however it is unlikely.

  10. CuJoYYC says:

    “Mr. O’Leary is known and most of those who know of him have a negative impression of him.”
    Yup. Makes me happy.

  11. hatrock says:

    And Peter MacKay sits and waits the long game…

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:


      And increasingly appears on television.

    • bluegreenblogger says:

      His long game ends under a headstone. He is never ever going to leave the dissolution of the Progressive Conservatives behind. Maybe Nova Scotia can tolerate him, the rest of Canada won’t.

  12. Matt says:

    Mainstreet Research polling for ipolitics:


    “Kellie Leitch is now the first choice for over one-fifth of Conservative party members, passing Maxime Bernier and nipping at the heels of an increasingly polarizing Kevin O’Leary campaign, according to the latest iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker — powered by Mainstreet Research.

    Mainstreet reached 804 members between February 9 and 12 and found — with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20 — that Kevin O’Leary was the first choice for 22.01 per cent of members, followed by Leitch (20.90 per cent), and Bernier (17.54 per cent).”

    But the same poll shows:

    “O’Leary is now the last choice for 22.09 per cent of members, whereas Leitch is the last choice for 21.12 per cent.”

    So those who would pick O’Leary or Leitch as their first pick is basically equal to those who would pick O’Leary or Leitch as their last pick.

  13. Jason says:

    I listen. And I took out a Conservative membership to vote in the leadership. Will be voting for Mad Max. He’s got some ideas that are out there, but at least he has ideas. Most of the rest of them seem to have one main plank, and not much to say about anything else.

    Truth be told, I like Ambrose more than any of them though. 🙂

    • PJH says:

      I like her too. I know to be interim leader she excluded herself from running, but why she chose that path is beyond me……she’s proven that she would be a very capable leader…….
      I too would support M. Bernier over the others……

  14. Dan Calda says:

    The only candidate that can unite the many factions within the Conservative Party…and have a chance against Team Trudeau is Michael Chong. But he is far too reasonable, moderate and progressive for the entity the CPC has become.

  15. Eric Weiss says:

    I don’t have a favourite but can live with Raitt, Chong or Bernier. Anybody else and this non-partisan, small c conservative will never vote CPC again.

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