02.02.2017 09:45 PM

Ontario political tsunami heading this way?

This was just released by QP Briefing. And, yikes. If true, the Brown PCs have half the vote. 

Those who were at that top secret OLP meeting last night have to ask themselves: was what they were fed the truth? Or is this closer to the real picture?

If it’s the latter, watch out. We’re heading into Mulroney 1993 territory, here. 


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:


    Ontarians have to ask themselves if they vote party or leader. If it’s party, Brown gets in. But if they vote leader, like for Justin and Hillary, then theoretically Horwath gets in.

    Apparently, even Herle can’t save Kathleen now…

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      Warren says:

      He didn’t save her last time. Hudak did.

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        Ronald O'Dowd says:


        I would counter with two points: a) I have absolutely no expertise when it comes to Ontario politics but b) it could be possible that as much as voters disliked Hudak, they in the end liked Wynne even more. IMHO, if Herle can crack that nut again in this campaign, she still has a chance because campaigns always matter.

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    Matt says:

    PC’s leading in TORONTO 46% to 31%???

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    ottawacon says:

    The energy file is absolutely killing the Liberals – and for good reason. It is absolute madness to try to reduce natural gas usage in favour of electricity on one hand, and on the other provide $200M in subsidies to extend natural gas networks to rural areas getting hit by high electricity prices. The rural ridings are gone, the level of outright hatred is actually sort of frightening given the times we see around us. That in turn makes that Toronto number startling.

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    BlueGritr says:

    Small sample size: 676 were polled. Patrick Brown still has plenty of time to shoot both feet.

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    bluegreenblogger says:

    Looks like two teams with a path to victory. I suspect that the outcome will depend upon whether Brown can convincingly ‘slay’ the lunatic fringe in his own party, or if Horwath can be the anti-Trump. Honestly, based on the recent past, I think that Horwath has a better chance of being the only alternative for Liberal supporters. I am not big on Ontario Politics, but I live here, and in my neck of the woods (Etobicoke) Wynn seems pretty much toasted.

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    Miles Lunn says:

    I agree the PCs are in the lead, but there was a tweet from one Tory who said even their own internals aren’t this high (mind you maybe they are and they just don’t want their supporters to get complacent). Also this is a new polling firm with no record so usually when I see any poll with different numbers, I wait to see if other polls corroborate it or not. Once the next set comes out we will have a better idea if true or not. Still I believe the PCs are likely over 40% and in the lead and yes they are the favourites to win, mind you they were in 2007, 2011, and 2014 and they shot themselves in the foot each time. As a small c conservative myself, I hope they don’t this time, but we shall see. I agree for the Liberals, I cannot see them coming back unless Wynne resigns and they get a new leader. That being said maybe it is true as Wynne’s approval ratings are similar to Greg Selinger’s and her party seems as hated as the BC NDP was in 2001 so its possible you could see a massive wave to the PCs not because people like them but rather as a throw the bums out. The PCs in Manitoba got over 50% last April and this was the first time in over a century they achieved this, mind you Harper cracked the 50% mark in Manitoba in 2011 whereas he only got 44% in Ontario. Ontario is a bit more urban as well as in rural areas the Tories usually win, but they don’t run up the margins as massively as they do in rural Manitoba.

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    Warren says:

    Main Street is run by a Liberal and said even worse. Forum as well.

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