— Musings —04.04.2017 07:44 AM
The universe realigns: by-elections, (sort of) discussed and (kind of) analyzed
So:
- The Liberal vote was down in Markham, and the Tory vote was up.
- Liberals won big in Ottawa-Vanier, which is the safest Liberal seat in the galaxy. But it was the Dippers who came a (distant) second. Tories ran third.
- The Grit candidate in Stephane Dion’s riding – and we all adore her for defying the establishment and winning the nomination – absolutely crushed her challengers, with 60 per cent of the vote. The Tories got a third of that. Dippers came fourth.
- In Stephen Harper’s old riding, the CPC candidate – who I like because he looks like a Windsor New Democrat, not a Calgary Conservative – racked up similar numbers, taking 71 per cent of the vote, and the Grits didn’t even get a third of that.
- In the Southeast of Cowtown, where I used to live back when Jason Kenney was still a Ralph Goodale assistant, the CPC won nearly 80 per cent of the vote – and the Libs got less than 20 per cent. Ouch.
What’s it all mean?
Well, here’s my linkless, bulleted take:
- It means nothing. They were by-elections. Who cares.
- But, then again, maybe they mean something. Like, the universe is balancing out again – the Conservatives are retaking the West without a leader, and the Trudeau-led Liberals are still the folks to beat in the East.
- Also meaningful: more women in the House. That’s good.
- The Dippers weren’t a factor anywhere. Sure, they came second in Ottawa-Vanier, but not even a close second. They need to select Jagmeet Singh, fast, and get their shit together.
- In Markham, the Liberal drop, and the concurrent Tory rise, is perhaps something to keep an eye on. There was no change, but still: the CPC – even with a shitshow of a leadership race, and with no one really leading them – are edging back. Hmmm.
- In St. Laurent, the Liberal grassroots took back control – and they delivered for their anointed candidate, big time. Wonderful to see. Pay heed, PMO.
- Again: they were by-elections. Turnout sucked. Nothing changed. I’d be surprised if you are still awake.
Carry on as you were. The universe is aligned, and Kevin O’Leary is still Kevin O’Douchebag.
best story line is the St Laurent result ..
why would you want the ndp to get their shit together? We’ll end up with PM O’Douchebag
I’d vote for anyone whose name is O’Douchebag.
Oh get in the game Warren for the love of God. Comparing O’Leary to a Douchebag is an insult to Douchebags.
Good point
Actually Warren, the Liberal vote was down in every riding between about 4% and 6.5% and the CPC vote was up in each riding.
It’s very hard to quantify that though as the turnout for each was only around 30% and the results had no bearing on changing the balance of power in the HOC.
Prefer Guy Caron to Jagmeet Sigh so far, his basic Income idea would have many benefits.
Jagmeet is seen as too much of a no change, no challenge to the status quo establishment candidate, who could bother making up his mind in time for the debates.
To even seriously consider Jagmeet he first has to decide to actually run, he has to bring really revolutionary ideas that wow, he has to do well in the rest of the debates, and lastly he has to buck the idea he is the establishment candiatate, because the membership is greatly disenfranchised with the NDP establishment right now after 2015 and the lack luster proformce since.
Right now Jagmeet has GQs endorsement which would be a huge asset in the Liberal Party, but doesn’t mean squat in the NDP
I agree. I think Jagmeet has some incredible attributes that could serve the NDP well, but I want to wait until the debates to see if he can bring forward substantive progressive policy.
By-elections are tough to write about but you got it right, It means nothing. “They were by-elections. Who cares.”
In the Chicken Litttle, over analyzing bubble environment, consultants will be using every tenth of a percent to prove something, as they try to scare their political and business clients into doing something billable.
But honestly, voter turnout was a low as it usually is for a by-election and nothing changed. Except that we have 3 more Liberal women in caucus.
My take is as follows.
Liberals – Good but not great. Their vote went down in all five, but the drop in each case was quite modest, not large so nothing to get too panicked about yet, but certainly if the trend continues not good.
Conservatives – Went up in three ridings, flat in one (Saint Laurent), down in one (Ottawa-Vanier) so a good night on balance but still need to gain however as a leaderless party I suspect most Tories were pretty happy with the results.
NDP: Bad night asides from Ottawa-Vanier. Dropped in the other four ridings and got under 10% so they have their work cut out for them.
This means absolutely nothing.
Everything we expected to happen, happened. Reading into these results is way too inside-baseball to matter to anyone.
I can’t, however, express my adoration for Stephane Dion’s successor enough. I sincerely hope the best for this under-dog and hope to see her continue to be a dark-horse in the face of the ego-centric PMO.
Warren,
Once again, you hit the nitro with your take: our party needs to be seriously worried if Bernier becomes CPC leader. That threat is close to monumental in the West. Last time I checked, libertarianism was in good stead over there. If Max gets the leadership and the stars align right across the West, we can expect big trouble beyond the ON-MB border. Wonder if Ralph agrees?
Prairies are a lot more libertarian than BC so one cannot assume BC will follow Alberta. That was the case in the 90s but in the last decade BC has very much gone its own way which is often quite different than Alberta, although if the BC NDP win next month that will probably be good news for the Tories in BC as the right federally seems to do better in BC when the NDP is in power provincially than when not, probably a backlash against the left. Also Ontario is not totally safe as the margin in Markham-Thornhill was cut from 23 points to 12 points so a similar swing in the 905 belt would take down cabinet ministers like Karina Gould and Jane Phippott although with an election two and half years away a lot can happen never mind if the PCs win provincially in Ontario that will probably help the Liberals federally as Ontario likes to have opposite parties in power at Queens Park and Ottawa so I suspect the unpopularity of the OLP is probably rubbing off a little on its federal counterparts.