05.05.2017 05:28 PM

My friend Greg Lyle knows BC

…and he knows BC elections, too. Here, his latest survey(s):


Can the BC NDP – who once had a double-digit lead – still win? Yes, says Greg:

However, an NDP victory is still possible: 40% of the electorate say they want to hear more before making up their minds. This is almost exactly the same number we saw at this point in the 2012 Alberta election, before a surprise PC upset at the very end of the campaign.

But can Comeback Clark take this one again? Still hard to say. 

But I agree with the Globe: the BC Liberals deserve to.

5 Comments


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    Matt says:

    My cable TV package has a few channels from BC I watch shows on from time to time.

    The Libs are really hammering Horgan on his ties to big American union leaders in their advertising.

    Including accepting a $600,000+ cheque from the leader of the American Steel Workers Union, who was standing right beside Trump in the Oval Office the day trump called Canada “disgraceful”.


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    Mike Adamson says:

    If the Conservatives get 7%, I will eat my hat.


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    Charlie says:

    With all due respect, fuck the Globe and their endorsement.

    For the record, I’m not a BC resident but nor am I remotely an NDP fan.

    Having said that, the Globe needs to sit the fuck down stop with their pontification. They need to learn that paper endorsements are to voters what groundhogs day is to weather forecasting.

    Honestly, I’m surprised they haven’t learned their lesson after their 2015 endorsement and the peak dumbassery that exhibited. Then again, this is a publication that continues to employ Margaret Wente, so what the hell.


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    cynical says:

    I live in BC (Sunshine Coast, actually) and will not be voting Liberal, for a long list of reasons. I know you favour her, but Premier Clark, in my view, needs time on the bench, as do the BC Liberals. I will enumerate the reasons.

    1. The BC Liberals aren’t, really. Too many compromises have been made to keep their Conservative and Socred wings happy.
    2. The fiscal picture is not as rosy as painted, because the financial surplus is being accrued at the expense of social capital.
    3. Taxes have been kept low, but user fees and crown corporation revenue streams are elevated. I speak here of the Medical Services Premium, ICBC licensing and insurance fees, BC Hydro rates and BC Ferry fares, BC Liquor Commission prices and the Pharmacare program. Net, I am paying more to live here than I did in Ontario, and the efficiency of service delivery is not as good. Business processes seem to have been designed by Republicans and implemented by Stalinists.
    4. We have serious deficiencies in medical services. The Pharmacare (a means-tested system that offers tiered deductible and requires you give them permission to look at your tax filings to subscribe to) has one of the worst records of prescription non-fulfillment in Canada, as pensioners earn too much for full pharmacare support pay significant costs, and don’t purchase the medicines they should, or take lower doses. We have the second-longest wait times in Canada for knee and hip joint replacements, and we have a serious doctor shortage, despite offering some of the best quality of life in Canada. These problems have been evolving over the Clark mandate without any visible or effective attempt at solution.
    5. Unrealistic reliance on megaprojects as solutions for energy and economic problems. I’d be OK with a new pipeline, but the whole LNG thing does not pass the common sense test, and the Site C dam project seems a solution in search of a problem.
    6. Foot-dragging on seismic upgrades for schools, and in general short-changing the K-12 educational system. I have grandkids in the schools, and I don’t like what I see happening there. Great staff, but not enough, and special-needs kids are paying the price, as always.

    I could go on: fumbling the HST/GST issue and solving the problem by referendum, Shirking responsibility and allowing a referendum to decide the fate of a special transit tax in the lower mainland. Reforming liquor board regulations almost not at all, so special interests get served before the public.

    I know you hold Ms. Clark in high regard, and she may be a good person. All I’ve seen in the last eight years living here suggests a government that deserves replacement: They are competent, mostly, but they don’t seem to be acting in the best interests of most residents any more. Combine that with the large financial contributions from dubious, interested sources, and for me, it’s time they went.

    Voting here is easy: We have a very good MPP. He’s been in opposition, but he’s good at his job and has represented interests here very well for a guy who sits on the opposite side. Our Green candidate is also good. She’s new to politics but is knowledgeable and articulate. The Liberal guy is the scion of a political family. He’s a nice fellow and does retail politics well, but is too green to burn, and trades in black top politics: “Vote for me and I’ll make sure is fixed because now you’ll have a rep in Government.” Not hard to not vote for him, pleasant as he is. So it looks like I’ll be doing the federal-provincial split, voting Liberal federally (Ms. Goldsmith-Jones continues to impress, and I hope to see her in cabinet after a shuffle) while voting (probably) NDP provincially.

    What you say about the NDP being historically corrupt may be true. They’ve been out of power for quite a while. Maybe they’ve learned their lesson. I wish we had a truly liberal provincial party: one that did not need to use blue signs to signify to the Conservatives and the Socreds that it’s OK to vote for them. Maybe then we could get some of these key problems dealt with within a sane and just fiscal framework.

    Thanks for your efforts, Mr. K. Much appreciated.
    (having “unreadable captcha token file error. If this duplicates, please approve only one)


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    I would put it this way: a realistic choice between someone who makes you gag and another who positively makes you shit.

    The polling above clearly identifies who is who. No big surprise there.

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