— Feature, Musings —03.11.2018 09:55 AM
Doug Ford in ten tweets
I hate Twitter threads, but I got started and kept going. Here it is.
1. Doug Ford is good news for Andrea Horwath. If Horwath gets out of the political equivalent of the witness protection program, that is. #onpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
2. Kathleen Wynne is Hillary Clinton to Doug Ford’s Donald Trump? Not really. Here’s why. #onpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
3. Depicting Doug Ford as a racist like Trump won’t work. Ford Nation has always had huge – huge – support among new Canadians who share his views on taxes, cultural change and pointy-headed urbanites.
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
4. Going after Doug Ford because he allegedly sold weed three decades ago won’t work either – given that Ontario’s government this week started aggressively marketing the selling of weed. By Ontario’s government. #onpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
5. Going after Doug Ford because he’s a politically incorrect, rough-around-the-edges guy with a paunch won’t work. Ontario is full of politically incorrect, rough-around-the-edges guys with a paunch. #onpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
6. When the downtown media and the urban commentariat go after him, as they will, it plays into Doug Ford’s hands. “See?” he will say. “They’re not just mocking me. They’re mocking you, too, Joe and Jane Frontporch.” #onpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
7. Doug Ford is not the city councillor he once was. Back then, he had a brother who was a drug addict and who was always in trouble. Defending his brother, he’s told me, was his entire focus. His brother is now gone, and he *has* changed. #ONpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
8. The people who say Doug Ford doesn’t represent the real Ontario don’t know the real Ontario. To them, Ontario is what they drive through to get to their cottages on the weekend. #ONpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
9. Doug Ford voters aren’t just angry. They feel they’re the forgotten – that they don’t matter to those of us who live downtown and make all the decisions all the time. Ford’s voters love him because he won’t forget them. #onpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
10. Jean Chretien, Bill Clinton, Ralph Klein, Mel Lastman, Brad Wall and so on – they were all smart guys (who hid how smart they were) and had the common touch (when their opponents didn’t). Doug Ford is like that. Underestimate him at your peril. #ONpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) March 11, 2018
Oh, for f–k sake.
Christine Elliott is refusing to concede the race to Doug Ford.
https://ipolitics.ca/2018/03/11/christine-elliott-wont-concede-ontario-pc-leadership-race/
As an aside, you probably didn’t hear due to the OPC drama, but CPC MP Brad Trost lost the nomination race yesterday in the riding he currently holds. WOO-HOO!
Good! If someone has a proper explanation for what took seven hours, let’s hear it.
Keep ‘er going! Great job!
I thought Hartley Lefton, chief of the PC’s leadership organizing committee was the guy who twirled his moustache in “Blazing Saddles.” No wonder this is screwed up.
Firstly, Christine Elliot is clearly the HC to Ford’s Trump.
Secondly, I think while the comparisons between Doug and Trump are plentiful and almost reflexive for a lot of people, there’s no denying that Ford holds a certain affinity for Trump’s style of administration.
While Ford does bring his usual populist, every-guy mannerism, coupled with the standard conservative trope of “we’ll find efficiencies”, he has been citing Trump talking points for weeks now on the American economy. He has repeatedly asserted that “jobs are coming back in droves”, implying that as a sign of success in them bully-them-back approach.
Which goes to the main problem with Ford.
Ford’s view of governance is irrational at best. Despite having been elected to a government structure for so long, he still woefully underestimates the weight of governing. Throwing around charged statements on climate change policy and abortion is indicative of how little Doug appreciates consequences.
Trump is a narcissistic demagogue on a level of his own; comparisons between Doug and Trump on that level are not fair in my opinion.
But the fundamental issue with Ford is that when it comes down to it, Ford doesn’t totally understand the governing aspect that follows political stumping.
So, is Ford Trump 2.0? No.
But that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t share the same features that Trump does, and that is enough to turn away people who might have seen themselves voting for Mulroney/Elliot. The Frontporch constituency is not as broad as one would believe.
His populism will likely gain him more votes than it loses. There is a swath of underprivileged ridings in Etobicoke, Scarborough, and North York. Ford will be talking directly to them while leaving the Libs and NDP to fight over the green-hair-and-nosering constituency.
Don’t forget your neighbours to the West… there are more of us, and we can read too.
Benford’s Law & Detection of Election Fraud 2011
http://courses.math.tufts.edu/math19/duchin/dmo.pdf
Note: Elliot has valid justification to contest the fraudulent election 2018 based on Statistical Fraud. And Lefton has some splaining’ to do IMO.
RW
The Ontario Liberals released a hysterical statement last evening, as read on the late night news. Ford wasn’t my first, or even second choice. But, he does have the potential, for good or ill, to change how government works in this Province. He won’t be managed. Hence, Kathleen is frightened – she could well lose to him, and she knows it.
Good analysis. Points #3, 5 and 6 could also apply to Donald Trump.
I would predict Doug Ford to be the next Premier of Ontario, based on their financial situation alone. Like Mike Harris and Gordon Campbell before him, he will inherit a fiscal nightmare and do his best to fix it. Won’t make him popular. He won’t care.
How were the provinces finances after Eves left?
How exactly do you think he will fix deficit? By cutting health care and education expenses, which means less accessible health care or private ones, large class sizes, and less quality education. I am an economist , i read the budget and the health care expenses are huge. I believe in data not empty words.
The similarity is more with Mike the Knife than the present occupant of the White House. He’s Mike the Knife without the facts. I suspect that either the premier or as you once called her “Hudak Helper” will benefit from the fear this man will instil in people who don’t want a hard rightwing social conservative Ontario and you know, like facts.
Doug Ford is neither social conservative nor hard-core rightwing.
It’s a sign of how absurdly far left T2 and Wynne have pulled the country that a pragmatic populist like Ford is considered a scary rightwinger to historical illiterates lacking perspective. Time for the pendulum to swing back a bit.
Yes, modestly trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and trying to improve the lives of the working poor is absurdly far left.
No. But teaching borderline pornography to very young children, and dismissing all who have concerns about it as a bunch of extreme religious nutcases, certainly is.
Why did the Liberals wait until Year 14 to do anything about Ontario’s employment laws to help the “working poor” or raise the minimum wage above the rate of inflation? Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is falling on the backs of those same working poor via hydro rates.
“teaching borderline pornography to very young children, and dismissing all who have concerns about it as a bunch of extreme religious nutcases”
Do you have a source in the final circulum documents to support you claim so you don’t get dismissed?
“Why did the Liberals wait until Year 14 to do anything…”
Because they are not “absurdly far left”.
Have you read the curriculum? Explicit material taught to 1st graders. Indoctrination about gender identity. And the crafting of this material involved one rather shady individual in particular.
I would say that on social wedge issues of importance to the SJW crowd, it would be hard to go further left than this government.
“Explicit material taught to 1st graders.”
You mean tell them the name of their body parts?
“Indoctrination about gender identity.”
You mean explaining how various people feel about their gender identity? By Indoctrination, do you think learning about that will override their how they will want to express themselves?
You believe that a 6 year old needs to be told that they must classify themselves into a sexual orientation?..
6 year olds don’t think in those terms, they need to be kids.
Forcing a hetero or other belief system on children is abuse, let them decide when they’re ready.
Don’t force your agenda on anyone else, Nazi.
Pedant,
Absurdly far left = anarchists and marxists;
Absurdly far right = fascists;
Both = totalitarians.
Oh, for Premier Wynn, I suspect this is the 2nd best outcome (after a Ms Allen victory). I’m curious, do you still think the Premier is “the luckiest politician in Ontario”?
It would seem Christine had a meeting today with Doug. CBC is reporting she has decided to abandon any challange of the vote results and to put he full support behind Doug.
I would think he has assured her of a plub cabinet post, maybe finance or health should the PC’s win in June. Maybe the deputy premier spot too.
Plus with dropping th challange, she doesn’t burn any bridges within the party so if they lose the election and Ford leaves/is booted she would most likely be named leader.
It was such a razor-thin result, really not good for party unity. Everyone now knows that Elliott won more votes and ridings but the complexity of the preferential balloting process gave the race to Ford by a hair. From that perspective it is indeed Clinton vs. Trump (not in relation to policies/values/character, but in terms of their analogous electoral situation).
Ford guaranteeing her a plum cabinet post; well obviously, what else is he going to do? She only lost the leadership on a technicality and has past experience in Cabinet. The finance post for Elliott should be a given, even absent any negotiations with Ford.
That’s assuming Elliott even runs in the election, considering her path after she lost the leadership to Brown.
Could be mistaken, but I think the 4 candidates had to assure the party they would still seek a seat if they lost the leadership race.
Much respect to Caroline Mulroney by the way.
She could have taken Sunday off to lick her wounds after losing. But she didn’t. She was up bright and early knocking on doors in her home riding and tweeting positive messages about unity and defeating Kathleen Wynne.
Well it’s not like there’s any consequence if Elliott walks. What are they gonna do? Burned bridges, but I doubt she cares at this point.
As a downtown Toronto-er, the smug dismissing of someone like Doug Ford is starting to get to me. I heard him denounce this Kevin Johnston loud and clear on CBC Radio. Meanwhile, Krystyn Wong-Tam is handing out awards to an activist who has said she needs help from God to not kill men/white people and that white people are subhuman. And Doug Ford’s the scary one here? As someone who knows a thing or two about hate speech, I think a lot of people would appreciate some light being spilled on this by you, particularly the people she is claiming to represent.
This, absolutely — right-wing populists like Ford feed off of the smug elitist dismissals to play the martyr and to fuel their arguments to their followers, stoking further anger to get the autocrats (currently Liberals) tossed out of office.
Not white, but 100% agree with you.
It would seem some in the media haven’t read your list.
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/10/tussles-over-ballot-counting-delay-results-in-ontario-pc-leadership-race.html (apparently there was a meeting and the MSM has decided to refer to them as the “beleaguered Ontario PC party. At least 4 outlets use the term)
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/12/pcs-would-win-next-ontario-election-despite-voters-dislike-of-doug-ford-poll-finds.html (LOL. “only 39% of Ontarians approve of Doug Ford…..” Yeah, last I checked, that’s double the number that approve of Wynne)
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/doug-ford-leader-ontario-canada-1.4571558 (Doug Ford as Ontario Premier will destroy Canada!!!)
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/christine-elliott-concedes-ontario-pc-leadership-to-doug-ford/article38273284/
Audio here: https://clyp.it/user/pokrn34r
Warren, I have trouble seeing Horwath as a winner post-PC leadership race. Won’t Ford ‘out-folk’ Horwath?
Mr. Kinsella seems to have issues acknowledging that the NDP even exists. The perennial Liberal election strategy of fearmongering for “strategic” voting begins again …
Don’t be an ass. She’s invisible.
If you say so. She’s only invisible if you’re not looking at all, or if you’re only relying on what the big media outlets are spoonfeeding to the public.
She’s been quasi-campaigning across the province and putting out announcements for quite a while already. What does she or the ONDP have to do to get the attention other major parties enjoy?
1. Offer ideas
2. Be creative
3. Drive wedges
4. Reveal a plan
5. Say this: “I am the only option who isn’t as unpopular as Wynne or as unqualified as Ford. Don’t like the other two? You’ve got an option. Me.”
Adam,
6. She has to genuinely concede that her running right of centre last time was wrong for the province and party. Then outline her agenda and the overwhelming thirst for progressive change. Most Ontarians are long past Cave Man politics.
1. Already doing that;
2. Been doing that, but as soon as a new/creative idea comes up it promptly gets annexed by the Liberals, who then get a free ride on it;
3. Hard to drive a wedge when the opposite side is a massive question mark, as it was until a couple days ago;
4. Partway there, in concert with #1, but subject to #2;
5. Already doing that;
6a. Already did that and it saved her leadership at review time;
6b. See #4.
Okay. Free advice is worth what you pay for it!
Well, to be fair, I do wish they would do all of your points with a lot more vigour and emphasis. You’re not wrong about them.
My point is that Horwath and the ONDP are doing all of those things to varying degrees, and are still getting virtually zero traction whatsoever — not through any huge lack of effort on their part, but because there’s a widespread vested interest in preserving the Liberal/Conservative false dichotomy that perennially dominates Canadian politics.
To actually win, the party has to somehow first break the popular perception that they can never win, which is a wonderful little Catch-22. It’s no accident that the federal NDP shot to the top of the polls right after the Alberta NDP won government. Politicians and candidates can talk policy until they’re blue in the proverbial face, but the single biggest factor for many average voter is simply (and sadly) the bandwagon.
The crazed CBC Ottawa radio interview that Ford did this morning is probably a good predictor of what to expect from Ford.
I would like to believe that the majority of voters, especially in Toronto, have not forgotten the exhaustion with the almost daily shit show that was the Ford administration in Toronto and the same with the Trump that’s been going on since his inauguration.
P.S. As naive as this may sound, can we stop with the condescending lowered expectations depiction of self-defeating potential Ford voters as being “the forgotten”?
They’re all good but number 10 is the real winner. No truer words were ever tweeted.
Late to the party but here goes.
The funny thing is elections are usually not decided by partisans of a particular political party. They are decided by the 10-15% of the electorate who do not have any particular political affiliation or loyalty. The swing voters decide who to vote for usually by deciding which one of the choices is the best of a bad lot.
It is an interesting study of group dynamics to see how this segment of the electorate seems to break overwhelmingly in one direction during a given election only to break in the other direction during a future election.
It will be interesting to see who this segment of the electorate will determine is least offensive in June.
Until a month ago I believed they would jump to the PCPO but I also believed they would do the same thing in 2014. They did not do so in 2014 because Mr. Hudak pulled a “Hudak” and demonstrated that they believed that Ms. Wynne was still the least offensive option. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that we will see the same thing again.
The reasons:
The Ford surname is synoymous with a political gong show. That is a simple fact. Although it might not be fair there will be some guilt by association.
Certainly those who supported the Ford brothers still do but the numbers who do not and did not support them have always exceeded the numbers who do.
Although Mr. Ford and Mr. Trump are not exactly the same type of politician there are similarities. Many Canadians are looking south with horror at what Mr. Trump is doing and they will want to avoid any hint of the events taking place in the US from happening here. You have to know that Mr. Ford’s opponents will be attempting to draw parallels between him and Mr. Trump.
Mr. Ford has never held a higher political office than a city councillor. It is a bit of a leap from city councillor to being the premier of the largest province in the country do you not think? Again, it would not surprise me one bit to see his opponents pointing that out.
I believe that the upcoming election will be his to lose. The desire for change in the province too high not to make it so. However, I also believe that he is vulnerable on several fronts and his opponents will be doing their damnest to highlight them in order to create doubt in that 10-15%.
One final thought. The PCPO had this election in the bag. It was theirs for the taking. All they had to do was elect a leader who was non threatening and who is not Kathleen Wynne. They chose not to do that.