03.02.2018 08:51 PM

Ipsos: Trudeau is losing

First time they’ve gotten that result in years. Link here.

Comments are open.

If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would win.

According to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, public reaction to a recent troubled trip by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to India two weeks ago might be a symptom of a growing problem.

Liberals would win 33 per cent of the national popular decided vote if Canadians went to the polls this weekend, while Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives would receive 38 per cent of the same vote and win the election.

That’s a drop of five points since December for the Liberals and a jump of seven points since the same time for the Conservatives.

The NDP would get 21 per cent support, while the Green Party would get five per cent of the vote.

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, said the declining fortunes for Trudeau and the Liberals are likely due to self-inflicted wounds.

“It’s the first time we’ve shown, since before the election, any time the Liberals have been behind. They’ve been consistently four or five points ahead of their nearest competitor; sometimes more than that for the last two years and a bit,” Bricker said.


  1. Des says:

    Warren, how much of an impact are the provincial races having on the federal appetite? Ontario, Alberta, and even Quebec appear to be choosing centre-right governments in the near future (at least that’s what the polling trends are telling us). Not sure about Quebec, but these populations are getting sick of hard leftist policy instead of the centre-left they were used to (well, maybe not Alberta). Does it traditionally translate federally?

  2. Ronald O'Dowd says:


    Fortunately, for now, it’s only one poll.

  3. Matt says:

    Most important part of the article:
    “The remarkable thing about it is very little of it has to do with any of the qualities of the opposition parties. This is really people evaluating the government on its own terms and the Liberal Party on its own terms.”

    So, this poll isn’t all that good for any of the parties.

    Liberals – more people are paying attention to what they are doing and they don’t like what they are seeing.

    CPC – Yeah their numbers are going up but, at least according to Mr. Bricker’s analysis, it’s not because they are doing anything that is inspiring people to jump ship from the Liberals.

    NDP – same as the CPC.

    Plus, the election is still 2 years away. But I do wonder what the CPC number would be if they had a more charismatic leader. Then Trudeau might really be up shits creek without a paddle.

    • ABB says:

      I think Trudeau is doing a fabulous job of demonstrating why ordinary Canadians are looking for an alternative today, 18 months before the next election. This upcoming period is going to be a very rude awakening for the myopic and delusional fools who still support him. Just like his father, he has no substance.

  4. jj gibbons says:

    It was an on-line survey. They tend to be as useless as the leader of the CPC.

  5. RKJ says:

    The leaders of China and Indian have figured out “Mr. Selfie”. We’ll see if Canadians can as well.

  6. Robert White says:

    Methodologically, and scientifically, as well as empirically, Survey Data is the lowest level data that any Social Scientist can utilize. It is not Ratio Level Data, and it is invariably fraught with methodological confounds that cannot be reconciled in the face of threats to validity, efficacy, or reliability. The specifications for tolerance are invariably questionable too, and the Data Sets are never supplied as adjunct information. All polls should come with the data sets that they are comprised of.


  7. Matt says:

    This Atwal stuff doesn’t appear to be going away any time soon.

    Surrey MP Randeep Sarai who Trudeau pointed the finger at gave an interview yesterday where he is now claiming he did not invite Jaspal Atwal to the High commissioner’s dinner.


    • KS says:

      Its not going away for a few reasons:

      1. Its a controversy and the media environment absolutely thrives on political scandal. The wall-to-wall coverage nature of the modern media rewards story sensationalization which produces poor journalism.

      2. Self-Inflicted damage by the Trudeau PMO and their flaccid communications response to the matter. This has been an illness that has plagued this government from the get-go. Simply waiting for the media to move on to the next thing creates a vacuum of information to be filled with conjecture. The Liberal PMO needs to pick a position and stand behind it. Instead, they’re letting MP Sarai, that senior government official and the entire Sikh Canadian community continue to take it on the chin because they can’t stand up for their own decision.

      3. A complete and blatant indifference to Sikh sentiments in our media landscape, perpetuated by both liberals and conservatives alike, that is allowing this kind of coverage to continue with complete blindness to the negative and false connotations it invokes. Eyeopening to see the bastion of progressive sensitivity that is the CBC wantonly associate an entire community to a political controversy when they’ve consistently recoiled at possibility of doing that previously.

    • AF says:

      TECHNICALLY HE DID. “All we did is forwarded anybody that wanted to attend,” he told the Now-Leader, “that had expressed interest in the office. We forwarded those names to, forwarded those names forward. People were excited — people were calling in the office, there was about 25 or 30 names that came in from various different industries and we forwarded those name forward.”

  8. Liam Young says:

    There are two key issues to address:
    1. PostMedia and other right-wing media in Canada have been relentless with their attack on the Trudeau Liberals, primarily because they’re not serving up the hundreds in millions in annual subsidies in the form of advertising/PR/propoganda the way the Harper Conservatives did.
    2. Trudeau and his cabinet SEEM to be acting like amateurs and they’re making a LOT of amateur mistakes, making Point 1 all the more fertile ground. When Harper took over, the vast majority of his cabinet were seasoned veterans, both from provincial and federal politics. The Liberals still have some great vets (eg. Scott Bryson, Stephane Dion, Ralph Goodale), but they all seem to have very quiet roles.
    If the Liberals are going to win the next election, they have to be very boring, very moderate and very professional.

    • Ron Benn says:

      Liam, only two of the seasoned vets that you refer to, are in the Liberal caucus. Stephane Dion was shifted out of cabinet and into the diplomatic corps, because the PMO recognized how shallow (dare I say inept?) he was.

      Of the other two, Scott Brison has not demonstrated any real results in any of his portfolio and shadow portfolio positions. Experience does not equal competence.

      Only Ralph Goodale has much credibility, and that is likely why the PMO hung him out to dry with a mandate to explain the Atwal fiasco.

  9. Corey D says:

    I’ve copied here a highlight from the Forum Poll released Mar 1. I think this is representative of part of the problem for the Liberals, and it’s similar to the a problem that cost Clinton the 2016 election. Focusing on identity politics vs the issues the people are really concerned about. The Budget’s focus on Equality, which as you can see below is not quite where Canadians are at:
    “One quarter says the economy should have been the focus of the budget
    One-quarter (28%) said the economy should have been the budget’s priority,
    while one-quarter (22%) said it should have been healthcare. 1 in 10 (13%) said it
    should have been education or the environment (10%).
    1 in 10 (9%) said the priority should have been infrastructure. Equality (5%) and
    other (6%) were the least selected potential priorities. “

  10. Jim Keegan says:

    If this poll isn’t a wake up call for the Liberals, then I don’t know what is. More and more Canadians are starting to realize that Trudeau is an emperor without any clothes and that it takes more than nice hair, photo ops and a pleasant disposition to run an effective government. This Indian fiasco has put him dangerously close to laughing stock territory (some, or even many, would say he is already there) and once that happens, there is little or no chance of recovery.

    Liberal hyper partisans such as Scott (or is it Scot, I’m never quite sure) can stick their heads in the sand and whine about us nasty right wingers all they want, and pretend these polls mean nothing, but the truth is, this Prime Minister keeps shooting himself and his party in the foot and this can only go on for so long before permanent damage is inflicted. Any intelligent Liberal voter can see that their party has a serious problem on its hands.

    • Ned Ludd says:

      Well said. Unfortunately, the electorate has the collective memory of a gnat, and will be bought off(yet again) with their own money come election time. “Candies” as Justin’s father PET liked to call them. We got a taste of what’s to come with the current budget.
      One can only hope that the gaffes, buffoonery, and down right incompetence carries on right up to election time, and that the “Boy Blunder” has a crappy campaign. The electorate then might just have the moxie to give him the heave.

  11. Gilbert says:

    There will be no election tomorrow, but it’s bad news for the Liberals. The problem with the Atwal controversy is that the prime minister can’t accept responsibility. Instead of blaming everyone except himself, he should accept responsibility like an adult.

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