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Ipsos: Trudeau is losing

— 03.02.2018 08:51 PM

First time they’ve gotten that result in years. Link here.

Comments are open.

If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would win.

According to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, public reaction to a recent troubled trip by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to India two weeks ago might be a symptom of a growing problem.

Liberals would win 33 per cent of the national popular decided vote if Canadians went to the polls this weekend, while Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives would receive 38 per cent of the same vote and win the election.

That’s a drop of five points since December for the Liberals and a jump of seven points since the same time for the Conservatives.

The NDP would get 21 per cent support, while the Green Party would get five per cent of the vote.

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, said the declining fortunes for Trudeau and the Liberals are likely due to self-inflicted wounds.

“It’s the first time we’ve shown, since before the election, any time the Liberals have been behind. They’ve been consistently four or five points ahead of their nearest competitor; sometimes more than that for the last two years and a bit,” Bricker said.


Comments (18)

Adler-Kinsella: trade, Trump and Trudeau’s troubling trip

— 03.02.2018 09:30 AM

As in my Hill Times column next week, I was pretty tough on Justin Trudeau about the Indian imbroglio.  Charles Adler said he’s never heard me be this tough.

To me, a Prime Minister’s job is essentially threefold:

  • communicate to, and on behalf of, Canada
  • promote policies that are developed by his or her cabinet, caucus, officials, staff, political party (and, very rarely, by him or her)
  • articulate a vision that brings Canadians together

That’s it.  And the thread that runs through all of that, as you can see, is communications.  That isn’t what the job is mostly about – that is the job.

Justin Trudeau is one of the best retail politicians this country has ever seen (Messrs. Chretien, Mulroney and Trudeau Sr. were also amazing at the retail stuff, in that order).  He has an ability to connect with people that is extraordinary.

But there is a danger inherent in being a great communicator: sometimes, when you are that good at the retail stuff, arrogance slips in, like an unwanted guest at a crowded party.  You start to delude yourself into thinking that charm and conviviality will get you out of any mess. You start to think that you can win the people over with a big smile, and nothing else.

Justin Trudeau, in just about everyone’s view (if they’re being fair), is a terrific communicator.  He has clearly convinced himself that the whole job is about communications, too.

But here’s the thing: when you get too cocky, too arrogant, too full of yourself, you start to forget that you need to be communicating/articulating/promotion ideas and vision, too.

In the most simplistic terms, I am now convinced this guy thinks it’s all sizzle, and no steak. It’s all about pictures, and forget about the words.

In that, he is gravely mistaken.  And – as in all things in politics – his main strength is also his main weakness.

The thing that got him elected is the same thing that will defeat him.  I’m convinced of that, now.

Here’s me and Charles.



Comments (22)

Another unhappy PC person writes in

— 03.01.2018 10:53 PM

Hi Warren,

I thought this might be of interest since news can sometimes hit close to home — and your home includes the Beach (one of the ridings mentioned).

Apparently the rumour is that the successful candidates in these ridings have very close ties to that guy Snover Dhillon who’s been mentioned in newspaper articles.  I have learned lthat the Beaches-Woodbine riding was to have its nomination meeting in June, but it was cancelled on the afternoon of the meeting.  The meeting was rescheduled to September where Sarah Mallo was nominated as the candidate – through an acclamation.

You should also look at this guy: How to Lose an Election (when you’re ahead in the polls) – Part 6




Comments (1)