, 05.20.2018 09:34 AM

#ONPOLI this hand, that hand

Random thoughts on that startling Abacus poll this morning:

  • On the one hand, the Abacus survey doesn’t entirely take into account regional realities, seat distribution, and turnout – so Doug is still way ahead, as in the 2016 Electoral College in the US
  • On the other hand, the PC-407 mess – which, to be fair, predates Doug’s arrival as leader – isn’t really reflected in the period in which Abacus was polling
  • On The One Hand, um, again, regular readers know my long-held view that “scandal” stuff does not excite voters nearly as much as it does the media or politicos – mainly because normal people think those of us in politics/media are all crooks anyway
  • But back, er, to The Other Hand: the media are frustrated that Doug is winning without (in their view) working for it – so it’s in their interest to drive this 407 narrative to make it more of a race


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    Matt says:

    Well to be fair, Colleto does mention in his analysis that the OPC could still win a majority with these numbers or even if the NDP get ahead in popular support because the OPC vote is more evenly distributed while the NDP support is concentrated and the OPC supporters actually, you know, vote while the NDP is getting the most support from the age group the traditionally don’t show up on election day.

    Also interesting, Abacus shows Liberal support stagnant, but Quito Maggi of Mainstreet tweeted a couple days they are detecting the beginnings of a Liberal support surge.

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    JH says:

    The MSM’s Ford bashing has been underway for a while now and no doubt will continue. They still haven’t caught on to why nobody trusts them anymore, even in the light of this;
    Kind of authors of their own misfortune aren’t they?
    Also looking at the ownership of Abacus, one has to wonder about the validity of the poll. ‘Course that’s true of most these days.

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    P. Bell says:

    Because the NDP have gone full Maoist which is quite popular…

    Seven Year Plan

    January 2017, Justin Trudeau tweeted: “To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada”. Millions are on the way.

    May 2018, the Trudeau regime is constructing refugee camps near the Quebec-US border – part of a “triage plan” to accommodate an estimated 400-per-day asylum seekers from America. Migrants will be “fast-tracked” to shelters and services in Ontario if that is their preference (Toronto Star). Quebec officials announced they would refuse further refugee as Montreal’s 1,850-bed refugee shelter network approaches 85% capacity.

    In response, Toronto Mayor John Tory is pleading with federal and provincial governments to deal with the surge of refugees “who now account for nearly 40% of people in Toronto’s strained shelter system”. (G&M). Toronto Liberal MP Adam Vaughan has stressed the shelter system should only be a temporary measure: “I just rather would see the city focus on housing people rather than sheltering them.”

    An ad hoc Libera-NDP working group has proposed “Operation Pacific” – a program borrowed from Jeremy Corbyn: “There are a large number of deliberately kept vacant flats and properties all over London – it’s called land banking. People with a lot of money buy a house, buy a flat, keep it empty. Occupy it, compulsory purchase it, requisition it, there’s a lot of things you can do… In an emergency you have to bring all assets to the table in order to deal with that crisis.” Officials note: “the census counts 25,502 unoccupied homes in Vancouver” (Van. Sun). Assuming 10 occupants per house = 255,020; vacant apartments are estimated at least 200,000; assume 4 occupants = 800,000 – combined 1,055,020 migrants could safely housed with the added benefit of diversifying these neighbourhoods. Operation Pacific could absorb the current Quebec-US migrant stream for seven years. Vancouver is only a plane ride away.

    Amidst a massive real estate bubble, housing in Montreal and Toronto is already in extreme short supply from migrants who enter through “traditional methods”. Ahmed Hussen (Somali settler-colonizer, Minister of Immigration) calls them “the most ambitious immigration levels in recent Canadian history” – “Canada to Welcome Nearly 1,000,000 New Immigrants Through 2020” (CICNEWS).

    The Canadian State must move to a war footing to combat xenophobia, Islamophobia and racism and assist the settlement of refugees from America and the world. Operation Pacific is of vital importance in this struggle.

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    The Doctor says:

    Whenever the Liberals shit the bed really badly, it’s god for the NDP. See, e.g., Ontario in 1990, federal Liberals under Iggy Flop.

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    David Ray says:

    In sports, we cheer for the laundry. In politics, we vote for a colour. We are doomed as a species.

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    Karl-Milton Marx-Friedman says:

    Re: Journalism in Financial Crisis: Is it possible that the average quality of journalistic output has gone down because many journalists have been in search of better compensation? Be it PR, consulting etc. Journalists are in the persuasion game a bit too much because that’s what drives click bait/revenue….Seems like the charity or donation model that Trudeau mentioned in the last budget may be a future requirement. Or could journalists be paid by tax payers directly? Worth thinking about.

    Re: NDP Polling: The Liberals need the pendulum to swing to the right, not the left, for the next election in 4yrs so the incentives are aligned to split the progressive vote if the Liberals are shut out of power completely by an NDP majority.

    As I might have mentioned analogies do not have explanatory power however, in 1990, Bob Rae had a 12pt upwards swing while Peterson collapsed by 15pt and Harris did not have the momentum in that election. If Doug Ford losses all momentum then this might happen, but Ford definitely has a sustained level of support; momentum does not just mean upward or downward movement does it?

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      Miles Lunn says:

      Also Harris PCs in 1990 only got 23%. All polls show PCs north of 35% and some show them around 40%. Never mind when you look at demographic breakdowns, NDP needs a strong millennial turnout to have a chance. So far I don’t see the conditions for that yet, but could change. I think the next week will be critical. After the long weekend and the debates, the NDP will need a strong jump to have a shot so if on May 29th multiple polls show NDP ahead or tied they have a shot, but if they all still show the PCs ahead then it becomes a question of a minority vs. majority and Horwath’s only path to power is hope she can get a supply and confidence agreement from the Liberals like the NDP in BC did from the Greens, but wouldn’t count on that necessarily.

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    Karl-Milton Marx-Friedman says:

    I didn’t mean “explantory power” but rather “predictive power” or “explanatory power beyond a certain threshold…”

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    Dork in EastYork says:

    The NDP can’t hit Rae-level seat levels unless they hit 50%+

    Seat redistributions since 1990 have made the 905 a must win. Outside of Oshawa and some of Brampton, it’s a Dipper dead zone.

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      Pedant says:

      905 is a must-win for the PCs. It is NOT a must-win for the NDP.

      The NDP’s must-win zones are:
      – Hamilton-Niagara-Brantford
      – Northern Ontario
      – Urban Southwestern Ontario
      – 416 old city of Toronto (i.e. downtown/midtown, aside from uber-elite ridings like St. Paul’s)

      If it maximizes those four areas, and adds in a few seats in the 905 (Oshawa, some Brampton, as you said), Eastern Ontario (Ottawa-Centre and Kingston), and a couple rural/smalltown Southwestern seats like Sarnia, an NDP minority would be on the table.

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        Fred from BC says:

        Do the NDP stand any chance in those ridings? Because that’s the bottom line here…as you know, we don’t elect politicians based on the sheer number of votes alone.

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      Adam says:

      The Ontario NDP won Rae’s majority with 37.6% of the vote, and they did it without most of the 905 — because they won significant swaths of rural Ontario. And because the Liberals and the PCs split the vote with one another and plenty of Ontario NDP candidates won close races as a result.

      If Horwath and the NDP keep trending up, they will sooner or later gain the favour of the sizable segment of the population who vote based on who they feel is likeliest to win. The more they improve, the more the bandwagon works in their favour instead of against, and they can pick up seats in places that are quite unexpected (like the Liberals did federally amidst Trudeaumania v2.0).

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    Matt says:

    Is it really a true sampling of opinion when they admit the majority of the sample were respondents contacted repeatedly over a three month period?

    “panelists”Wave 1 of our study was conducted from March 29 to April 8, 2018 with a random sample of 4,177 panelists.

    Wave 2 was conducted from April 30 to May 6, 2018. 1,275 respondents from Wave 1 were recontacted and completed the survey. From May 4 to 6, an additional 500 new respondents completed the survey to create a total sample of 1,775 respondents.

    Wave 3 was conducted from May 16 to 18, 2018. 1,684 respondents from Wave 1 and Wave 2 were recontacted and completed the survey. An additional 1,140 respondents were invited who had not participated in any previous study (what we call fresh sample).”

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      Fred from BC says:

      “Is it really a true sampling of opinion when they admit the majority of the sample were respondents contacted repeatedly over a three month period?”

      It’s Trump vs. Clinton all over again. The media does their very best to ensure that ‘their’ candidate looks best…

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    Matt says:

    Mainstreet research tweeted yesterday they’re in the field everyday and they aren’t seeing the NDP momentum Abacus reports.

    Mainstreet Research
    May 20
    Replying to @ForgeRat
    Yeah, none of that is true We are sampling every day, if NDP had momentum, we would see it first Simply not the case, NDP and OLP still battling for progressive voters, PCs stable
    View conversation

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      Adam says:

      Not surprising that one polling firm would trash another when they are mutually direct competitors. Mainstreet wants media to rely on their predictions and not Abacus’ analyses.

      Come June 7th, we will know who is right, and who gets to be embarrassed until next time. And if it’s anything like Alberta’s last election, the hall of shame could be a crowded one.

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