— Musings —06.06.2018 11:37 AM
WHAT YOU HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR, #ONPOLI: the Daisy Group Ontario election poll™️!
— Musings —06.06.2018 11:37 AM
Assuming Tom is the intern?
I think Tom’s forecast will end up being closer to the final tally than his colleagues. Let’s check in on Friday to see where things stand. (Though I think there’ll be a few recounts before the official results are confirmed.)
Warren, who does Tom think would be the sole survivor for the OLP? My guess would be Nathalie Des Rosiers in Ottawa—Vanier in his scenario.
Ashley seems to be quite the optimist with 17 for the Libs.
Mainstreet has it OPC 74, NDP 43, Libs 6, Greens 1.
OPC leading 10 with NDP close second
NDP leading 3 with OPC close second
OPC leading 4 with Libs close second
Greens leading 1 with NDP close second
* NO ridings that are Liberal locked in to win *
My bet is that all ridings the liberals win tonight they will win by 7% or less. I also do think the PC’s will win a ton of ridings with somewhere between 40 and 55% of the vote but they will struggle to get above 65% in a riding.
Warren, who won the pool in 2016?
Mainstreet also reporting they saw some significant movement to the Liberals yesterday. Didn’t indicate from where, but based on seat projections between yesterday and today I’m guessing from the Dippers.
They are actually considering updating their final poll they released yesterday
Also saying your pal Jess Spindler is in a tight three way race.
Pollara also saying they are detecting some Liberal voters “coming home to support the local Liberal candidate deflating the NDP balloon”
Their polling suggests advance poll voting was way up from previous elections and assuming respondents were being honest, 43% went OPC, 36% NDP, and I can’t recall the Liberal number off the top of my head.
Incumbent Lib Yvan Baker is pushing hard in Etobicoke-Centre to be seen as only viable anti-Ford choice. I’m hearing he’s ahead of the NDP but maybe not enough yet to beat the Cons in the riding. Green Party candidate just endorsed him (!). Sounding very fluid in these last 24 hrs.
Warren,
Brave souls all, with hopefully one lucky genius!
Warren,
I don’t like seeing the NDP peak too soon…
In any event, my now less confident prediction will be an NDP minority.
I’ll stick with my NDP prediction, polling to the contrary. Go Tom.
Tom is very insightful.
Given he’s going agaist predictions of every pollster, we’ll know tomorrow night whether Tom is a modern day Nostradamus or if Warren needs to introduce a drug tessting policy at Daisy. 🙂
Matt,
Do we need to go back 2-3 years and highlight the “success” rate of polling across the board and in multiple countries and Canadian jurisdictions??? They like to laugh at one but they have a lot of company across the polling universe.
I have an intuitive feeling a lot of Green and Liberal voters planing to vote strategically for the NDP want to be counted somewhere as supporting their home party so that’s what they are telling the pollsters.
Either that or it’s wishful think but I think it’s more 50/50 PC/NDP than 85% PC poll tracker says it is.
The consensus at Daisy seems to be: PC majority, NDP official opposition, Liberals lose party status, Greens win their first seat (I’m assuming Schreiner in Guelph).
That all sounds right to me. I’m reluctant to predict anything more specific than that. 🙂
It seems we all are hoping Tom knows something no-one else does!
Nope.
I’m hoping it’s a replay of the 2010 Toronto Mayoral election.
Polls had Rob Ford and George Smitherman statistically tied. Too close to call they said.
All the pundits were saying it was going to be the wee hours of the morning before they would be able to declare a winner.
Then like a half an hour after the polls closed Ford was declared the winner in a landslide.
EKOS just released their final poll.
OPC majority predicted.
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-predicts-pc-majority/
OPC 39.1
NDP 35.1
OLP 18.9
Seat range:
OPC 67 to 75
NDP 41 to 49
OLP 5 to 10.
Vote percentages basically the same as Mainstreet’s final poll yesterday. EKOS has the NDP and Libs about a point higher.
And as our host predicted, the lawsuit announcement didn’t hurt Ford. PC’s actually went up 2 points after it was made public, NDP down 2 points.
The LISPOP analysis, run out of Wilfrid Laurier University, uses riding by riding numbers. Their 2014 Ontario predictions were almost perfect; however on the flip side, their 2015 federal predictions were way off (predicted Liberal minority 140 seats), so take from this what you will.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial
PC 69 seats
NDP 50 seats
Lib 4 seats
Green 1 seat
I think Ashley has it.