— Musings —02.25.2019 11:33 PM
You’re welcome
By-election predictions: #LPC gets back Outremont, #CPC keeps York-Simcoe, #NDP keep Burnaby-South. Everyone wins. You're welcome. #cdnpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) February 25, 2019
@MaximeBernier’s “party” finishes distant fourth in #BurnabySouth, fifth in #YorkSimcoe and sixth in #Outremont. What a farce. #cdnpoli #lpc #cpc #ndp #byelection2019
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) February 26, 2019
A distant fourth maybe, but about half of what the Cons got – if all of Max’s votes would have been Con, they would be ahead of the Liberals. That could hurt in other ridings.
If Maxime had the right parts, he’d be a girl, too.
In Scheer’s position, I’d be worried. I did not think Bernier would get 10%
That’s ridiculous.
Is it? I don’t see why. I had zero expectations for Bernier in Outremont. York-Simcoe, maybe some disappointment on his part. But Burnaby-South genuinely surprises me – that Bernier was seemingly able to carve off a third of what I assume is the Conservative vote. I don’t know the riding well, but I thought Bernier would get stomped there. I find that outcome troubling.
Ian,
I don’t think it’s wrong to argue that a relatively strong PP can only cost the CPC seats. Protest votes in significant numbers are always dangerous for the official opposition.
I don’t expect Bernier to get there but it’s theoretically possible.
1) Bernier didn’t get 10%. A VERY well known local candidate got 10%.
2) In the other 2 ridings where the PPC were running essentially on Bernier’s name recognition the PPC got 1.9% (York-Simcoe) and 2.1% (Outremont)
Plus, we’ll see in a general if it will still be 10%. By-elections usually have less then half (sometime less than a third) of the voter turnout a general election does.
Interesting that the Victoria Times Colonist thinks the PP result is a “bad omen” for Conservatives. Wishful thinking, I think:
https://www.timescolonist.com/singh-claims-house-of-commons-seat-with-burnaby-byelection-win-1.23644461