, 03.28.2019 06:33 AM

#LavScam blowback: Justin Trudeau is losing. Badly. (Updated)

I’m about to talk to the Construction Association folks about this in a few minutes. It was just released.


UPDATE: Ipsos has confirmed Reid, here. Oh, and Trump is more popular than Trudeau. That, too.


  1. Sean says:

    He hears the train a coming
    It’s coming round the bend
    Soon he won’t see the sunshine
    Nor his best friends
    Stuck in Trudeau prison
    That’s where he belongs
    Where he hears that train a coming
    He’ll sing a sad sad song

    Gawd he’s pathetic. Does anyone remember the time he went to console Chief Spence? -could be text book case of psychopathic behaviour: false front, manipulation, all intended to fool.

  2. Don Johnson says:

    Warren, I’m sure you’ve seen this, or will see it soon. It looks like the strategy is to cut the legs out from under JWR by slowly releasing negative “leaks”. Don’t have the guts to just kick her out of caucus.


  3. Joseph Taylor says:

    Very large sample size too.

  4. For me, this isn’t news. I’ve been predicting a CPC government for at least six months. The PMO was tone deaf then, and remains tone deaf now. That ain’t news either.

    • The Doctor says:

      The funny thing to me is it’s an arrogance similar to what Harper had: Harper was very cavalier about alienating significant swaths of the electorate, thinking (apparently) that he just had to play to the base to win. A shining example is Red Tories. Harper had barely veiled contempt for Red Tory/Blue Liberal types, and a Conservative party needs those people to form a winning coalition.

      It’s not an exact analogy, but Trudeau seems very cavalier these days about pissing off all kinds of people (myself included) who might have been inclined to consider voting LPC this fall. Lavscam as an issue resonates a lot with people (a lot of them educated, professional etc.) who care about process, rule of law etc. It reminds me a bit of the Census issue with Harper — why unnecessarily and gratuitously piss off people whose votes you need?

      • Max says:

        Doctor, you are right about one thing – your Harper – Trudeau analogy is not exact. Harper was anything but arrogant. But as a brilliant man and graduate of the London School of Economics, he had reason to be. But he wasn’t. He was polarizing, decisive, stubborn, nerdy and cold. But smart. Unlike Trudeau who was “born into it”. Harper has forgot more than Trudeau will ever know. Full disclosure – I’ve voted for all 3 parties. I will never vote Liberal as long as Trudeau is there.

      • Doug Brown says:

        I don’t see any similarity. Harper was more aloof, along the lines of Trudeau Sr. He was usually the smartest person in the room and struggled to related to others. Trudeau Jr is simply incompetent to be in any position of authority. He can’t think on his feet and resorts to scripts when in a panic, often to the wrong scripts. Gerry Butts created the Justin Trudeau personal. Without him, JT would be nothing more than an middle aged frat boy.

      • Doc,

        Is it possibly a combination of arrogance and entrenched entitlement? They get in and rationalize that they only got in because of their strategic mind and forget how the other guy badly screwed up to help pave the way…

        I was nothing but Red Tory during my CPC years. No question we were at least frowned upon by the true believers.

        Harper makes me laugh: how does he explain his previous political incarnation as a good Ontario-based federal liberal? Ditto for Kenney in Sask., à l’époque?

        In addition, the mindset of these people is always give ’em a shovel and boy, will they ever just keep digging their political graves. They can’t seem to help themselves.

  5. J.H. says:

    Might be a clue why here.
    Never been a Liberal fan, but have they always been this tone deaf?
    The Laurier Club? $1500 dinners? Disrespecting an indigenous lady like this?
    No wonder Libs are considered elitist and entitled.
    Bozo eruptions indeed!

  6. peetee says:

    Isn’t that from the members-only (non-random) survey group?

  7. whyshouldIsellyourwheat says:

    If Jagmeet Singh can get any traction at all…an Orange ripple…i.e. get the NDP over 20%.

  8. Pedant says:

    This is frustrating because I don’t think Scheer is up to the job.

    Damn it, why did Rona Ambrose have to leave? She’d be a fantastic PM. She logically concluded that based on history, it is extremely rare for a government to lose after one term. She didn’t calculate that T2 could be even more incompetent than his harshest critics believed possible.

    • Joseph Taylor says:

      I don’t understand what people have against Scheer. He seems like a decent sort of fellow. Unfortunately likability, attractiveness and charisma are highly correlated with election results and minimally correlated with effective governance.

      • Gord Tulk says:

        I think in the age of pushing back against elites having an edge – an archness – is seen by many as an attribute that even just a few short years ago was considered a negative.

        for example Romney and Jeb (!) versus Nixon or LBJ. I think a Nixon-type personality would be more popular within the conservative ranks than a Jeb.

      • The Doctor says:

        Personally I don’t like the way Scheer plays footsy with the far-right Goober element in the party (e.g., the anti-immigration stuff). That stuff on the UN declaration was pure inflammatory bullshit.

        Some of his fundraising pitches have been shameless that way.

        • Pedant says:

          Yes God forbid a federal politician express opposition to open borders. Borders are far-right.

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:


            How can a government take borders and open them? Does that mean they were more secure under Harper or were they as “open” as they allegedly are now?

          • The Doctor says:

            I’m not in favour of open borders either. I believe in immigration law. “Open borders” literally means you have no immigration law. The stuff that Scheer and those yellow vest people were saying and implying about the UN declaration was false and misleading.

            What I’m against is lying and people who lie and mislead for partisan political purposes.

        • Joseph Taylor says:

          Honestly, the only association I see between Andrew Scheer and the far-right is the media trying desperately to find a way to associate him with it by parsing every single thing he says or does through the lens of suspicion. Immigrant’s are the most conservative element in Canada and Andrew Scheer will not be prime minister in the fall unless he wins at least a plurality of immigrants in the 905 region this fall. Xenophobia is not a winning strategy for any party that wants to hold together a coalition of voters large enough to win an election.

      • Joseph,

        If the then 2006 Harper could get in, Scheer can get in.

    • The Doctor says:

      I agree re Rona. She would have been an excellent candidate.

  9. Gyor says:

    Ispos also just released a poll even more shocking. CPC 40%, Liberals 30%, NDP 21%, BQ 5%. Ontario, BC, and Alberta have the NDP and Liberals almost tied for second. Only Quebec has the Liberals in a solid position. If Mulcaor or Guy were leading the NDP instead of Jagmeet, the Liberals would be third right now.

  10. Dork in East York says:

    First time I’ve seen the NDP hit 20% in ages.

  11. Max says:

    Who’s with me. Warren can you put that out in the universe??

  12. Nick says:

    I don’t belong to any party but Nathaniel Erskine-Smith looks he could turn the Liberals hopes around were he leader.

    • Max says:

      That’s an intriguing comment. I’ve been asking myself, “Where are the great Liberal Giants”? I come from the land of Allan Mac Eachen. Ironically, he was the brains and the business behind PET, Juniors father. Back in the day, Justin would be a backbencher.

  13. Mark says:

    I can’t argue with most of the posts here. It’s been disastrous to say the least. As a long-time former Liberal voter, but a Green voter in 2015, I’m dismayed but not that surprised. I don’t think Scheer has what it takes; and Singh? Come on.

    Give me a new party with JWR, Philpott, Michael Chong, Nathan Cullen, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, and a few others, and I’d take a leave of absence and campaign for them. Sigh.

  14. Stephen G says:

    The election is looking like it will be a referendum on Trudeau.

  15. John Matheson says:

    Come hell or high water, Ben Chin will drag all the Liberals down with him. Since Butts got the boot, you can sense the political style of Chin emanating from the PMO. Hyperpartisan, Smears, Bullying, any underhanded tactic to get his way, and preserve his job.

    • Doug Brown says:

      Butts was every bit as evil, but far more competent.

    • Chris says:

      Is this the same somewhat meek yet unremarkably average on-air anchor Ben Chin from CBC News Network? This is the PMO Machievelli? I thought it would be the Rob Silver/Katie Telford two-headed monster.

      • John Matheson says:

        You have not seen this guy in political action. He may come across as meek and mild, but you don’t get to be the finance minister’s chief of staff by being that way.

  16. Max says:

    Boys and girls, and this is before the National Assembly of First Nations wade in. They are watching, listening and following this. Make no mistake. An unstoppable force will roll over Justin if he continues to smear JWR by proxy. And Canada will stand behind the NAFN. If it comes to that. Unless Goodale grows a pair before he collects that fat pension. Chretien oughtta give Ralph the ole Shawinigan Handshake.

  17. Mike Jeffries says:

    I didn’t vote for it in BC, but I’m seriously thinking some form of proportional representation would be better in Ottawa considering the travesty of the parliamentary committee behavior!

  18. Des says:

    I’ve said this before in the comments of another post here and I’ll say it again: I will take “boring” over “making an ass out of ourselves globally” any day of the week. We’re a strong, small, but smart player in our great Western civilization. We’re not dumbasses. However, currently, we’re looking like it. My choice for CPC leader was correct! May not be correct 4 years from now, 6-8 years from now, 10 years from now (who knows?) etc. etc. But we have a strong team and with people like Lisa Raitt, Michelle Rempel, Pierre Poilevere (who are all relatively young), and those who are recently elected like Michael Barrett (also relatively young) we have a bright future ahead with a government that would be stable, humbling, and dedicated to service! I’m actually very very fired up about us!

  19. Walter says:

    I think it’s quite clear that those who say “Scheer is not up to the job” are life long Liberals who just can’t bring themselves to vote Conservative. They realize that Trudeau is the worst, but are trying to justify their Liberal vote by vilifying a benign Scheer.

    • The Doctor says:

      There are also Blue Liberal/Red Tory types who have understandable concerns about how far to the right Sheer and his party are and are prepared to go.

      The Carbon Tax stance is a perfect example. What if you’re a fiscal conservative social liberal who thinks we ought to be doing something about climate change?

      Ever since Harper became leader, the CPC hasn’t been the most welcoming place for Red Tories or Blue Liberals to park their votes. And I say that as somebody who has been a pretty reliable Tory voter (albeit sometimes holding my nose while doing so).

      • Walter says:

        I believe that GHG’s went down more under Harper than under Trudeau.
        Tax is a fiscal policy, not an environmental policy.

  20. Nick says:

    It’s too bad the best from all parties don’t unite to form a new vibrant party that will represent Canadians and bring our pride for Canada back. Some on my list are Jody Wilson-Raybould, Jane Philpott, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Pierre Poilievre, Lisa Raitt, Charlie Angus, Elizabeth May.

  21. Nick says:

    Sorry, meant Murray Rankin, rather than C Angus. No disrespect to the latter.

  22. Darren H says:

    I thought Scheers statement on Bill 21 was very powerful and Prime Ministerial. Very shrewd change to the bumbling communication we have been seeing. If he keeps it up…

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