06.23.2019 09:34 PM

I predicted the amazing Elizabeth May’s Greens would go ahead of Jagmeet Singh’s NDP in July or August

I was wrong. She did it in June.

The times, they are a-changin’, folks.



26 Comments

  1. Pedant says:

    The NDP is in danger of seeing its entire Vancouver Island caucus defeated by the Greens. Most Liberal seats in BC are in the Lower Mainland, therefore less affected by the Greens. Outside of BC, the Greens are a non-factor aside from individual seats with unique circumstances (Charlottetown, for instance, on the back of the recent provincial Green breakthrough).

    • grayapple says:

      Oh, it’s more than that. According to 338Canada the Greens are competitive in three of the four PEI seats, and also in the New Brunswick riding of Fredericton (where the provincial leader has his seat). I live in Fredericton, the Greens have chosen a good candidate, and they have strong local organization and popular support, I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull it off this fall.

  2. Nick M. says:

    I abandoned my long time NDP loyalties when Jagmeet shocked me and went anti-pipeline. (And frankly feel betrayed after countless days of volunteering for the NDP over the years.)

    When Canadians approve of TMX by a ratio of 2-1 in the latest Angus Reid data. (And a substantial larger amount when Quebec is excluded from the data.) What niche pool of voters is he trying win over, while willing to lose so many in the mainstream?

    The NDP historically represented working families, now is determined under Jagmeets leadership represents anything but.

    • Max says:

      Nick, your feeling of surprise and betrayal are conveniently misplaced – that’s not on Singh. Lay that sh@t at the feet of the proponents of the Leap Manifesto – Avi, Naomi et al.

      • The Doctor says:

        The urban elite members of the NDP decided some time ago to go chasing green votes, and basically forgot about the blue-collar, Joe Six-Pack voters (especially in rural areas) who had voted NDP for ages. You’re right that Avi and Naomi et al. represent that faction.

        Interestingly, it’s not completely different from what’s happened to the Democratic Party in the US.

        • The Doctor says:

          Another perfect example of this phenomenon is when the NDP were setting official policy on the Northern Gateway Pipeline proposal a few years ago. The building trades and other unions in Northern BC were in favour, because of the jobs. The urban greenies were opposed. Guess who won. The urban greenies basically told the building trades et al. to PFO.

          • Gord says:

            The BC NDP has wrestled with this tension for the last 30 years. Harcourt tried to straddle the fence on Clayoquot Sound and got kicked from both sides. Clark at least knew where his bread was buttered and favoured his union buddies (calling Tzeporah Berman an ‘enemy of BC’ and saying protestors in the Elaho Valley who were assaulted got what they deserved). No doubt that was part of the reason large numbers of disaffected NDPers voted Green in 2001 which gave Campbell a near-shutout in the legislature.

            Today, the shoe is very much on the other foot. Horgan is both desperate to appease the Greens propping up his government and prevent any further leakage of support to them, so they’ve thrown their lot in with the environmentalist camp. By demonizing resource-extraction industries, they’ve pretty much written off everything outside the Lower Mainland and the Island. (A few pockets in the West Kootenays may still vote for them.) Whether this strategy will pay off remains to be seen.

      • Nick M. says:

        The TMX completion will provide thousands of full time middle-class employment in the Energy sector.

        If your concern is tackling income inequality, than you want the pipeline.

        Do not forget that the Green New Deal means displacing families. It means transferring more wealth to the top one percent.

        Jagmeet abandoned working families in favour of the privileged Leapers.

      • Dave says:

        It should be noted that the Greens have given the Leap Manifesto an Organizational Endorsement. So no pipelines, mining etc. and with no plans to replace the lost export revenue.

  3. Mark D says:

    1 – What I find just as interesting is the near symmetry between CPC and LPC numbers since Sept ’15. For the most part they seem to be trading back-and-forth.

    2 – The Greens started to boost suddenly, around Jan ’19, without any competing parties taking a comparative loss. This suggests to me that Greens are drawing equally from other parties while also bringing new voters and previously disgruntled voters back to the electoral process.

    3 – Any chance of a merger between the Greens and the NDP? Previously I would have thought it unworkable because of Big Labour and the privileged position held by unions in the NDP. However, with green technology on the rise, the NDP struggling to retain its traditional constituencies as the Greens attract many of its younger voters, and with the Green Party in Canada being more pragmatic and business-friendly than other Green parties worldwide, this might be a good time for a merger between both parties.

  4. Ronald Benn says:

    The problem with trying to evaluate the #’s for the Green Party is separating those who truly support the Green’s agenda, and those who are merely parking their preference with the Greens because they represent the equivalent of None of the Above.

    • Fred from BC says:

      “those who are merely parking their preference with the Greens because they represent the equivalent of None of the Above.

      That would be quite a large percentage, if past elections are any indication. How many times have we seen pollsters get it wrong now because of last minute ‘inexplicable’ vote swings?

      • Ronald Benn says:

        Fred, I know three people who voted Green in the last Ontario election, but not because they supported the policies of the Greens. Rather, they found all of the alternatives underwhelming. They viewed it as a form of protest vote. Instead of sitting at home on election day, they took the time to cast their vote, essentially for None of the Above. That the Greens and the media took this as a vote of support for the Greens was of little concern to those three individuals.

        • Fred from BC says:

          So, the Green Party now serves as the modern-day Rhinoceros Party?

          (I know you remember them…;)

          • Ronald Benn says:

            Fred, your assessment of my vintage is accurate. Oh for the days when Cornelius ran his campaign from the Granby Zoo.

  5. Steve T says:

    We will see what happens when the Greens are subject to the same questioning and scrutiny as the CPC, Libs, and NDP.

    Thus far, most interviews I’ve seen have treated Elizabeth May with fairly gentle kid gloves. Not that she isn’t smart enough to answer intelligent questions with intelligent answers, but there is also the part of politics that involves artfully answering questions that have no good answer, and are asked purely to make you look bad.

    Reporters love to feel smart, and unfortunately for some of them, they view gotcha questions as the best avenue for it. Many of the circumstances that have tripped up politicians on the campaign trail are due to these sorts of questions, and figuring out how to navigate them will be the real test of the Greens. Shouting “environment!” after every question will get old pretty quick.

    • The Doctor says:

      Elizabeth May gets tongue-bathed by the press most of the time. That spectacle, when she was hammered out of her gourd at the PPG dinner a few years back — if any other politician from any other party had done that (with the cameras rolling, by the way), their political career would have been over, or at least seriously damaged. Lizzie got a free pass.

  6. duojet says:

    On a somewhat unrelated topic, I received a fund raising call from the Liberal Party this the weekend.

    They’re still clinging to the “Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party” line. I thought, by now, the LPC “brain” trust would have figured out that JT is complete liability.

    • Des says:

      I received a flyer from my Liberal MP in the mail (LOL) recently. It was 4 pages and never mentioned the words “Liberal” or “Trudeau”. So there’s that. “Harper” was mentioned once. I think they’re probably doing this regionally as the Liberals were resoundingly defeated here in PEI.

  7. We can’t know how far the Greens will go, nor the momentum they will generate on election day.

    In case you haven’t guessed, the presumptive party will be looking for massage parlor 2.0 to try and burst the Green bubble.

    So many law and order types will be more than willing to help the presumptives out…so what else is new?

  8. Sudbury Steve May says:

    EKOS has a long history of over-predicting the level of Green support. So take this poll with a grain of salt, as the next several non-EKOS polls are likely to show more traditional party standings.

    But there’s really no denying that the trend is there – and the risk for the NDP is substantial. All of this tells me, however, that campaigns matter. If the Greens can get support up to 15% nationally pre-writ, Greens will have a chance at electing 7-12 MPs (7 almost certainly). I absolutely expect the NDP to start eating into Green support once voters start paying more attention and are bombarded by advertising. The Green Party has never run a truly national campaign, and there doesn’t appear to be any way for the Greens to do so now, this late in the game – even if they wanted to roll the dice. I expect the Greens will focus on the 7-12 winnable ridings and that will be it.

    Don’t write the NDP off – especially as voters flee the Liberal Party, which they will once Justin Trudeau becomes the subject of the most ruthless, merciless ad campaign ever unleashed against a Canadian political figure. The Ontario NDP benefited from the backlash against Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne in 2018. Singh will also benefit as Liberal support starts to slide.

    Of course, all of this likely leads to a Conservative majority government. And for me, that provides yet further evidence that those to the left of the Conservatives need to get our acts together on the smaller stuff – because we are truly at risk of losing the big stuff with a majority Con government.

  9. Nick says:

    Of all the leaders Elizabeth May, in my view, is the most genuine and intelligent, yet as an avid environmentalist she continues to miss perhaps the greatest reversible cause of climate change; the consumption of meat.

    The UN report ‘Livestock’s Long Shadow ‘ (2012) conservatively estimated that this industry was responsible for 18% of all greenhouse gas emissions (much of which are reversible) compared to only 14% from burning fossil fuels. The World Watch Institute places the livestock industry contribution closer to a more comprehensive 51%.

    Yet…. neither Mrs May nor any of her adversaries has ever even acknowledged this readily addressable solution to our climate woes. Scientists estimate that if all Canadians adopted a whole plant based diet we would easily meet 50% of our Paris Accord quota by 2020!

    Add to this the fact that a whole plant based no oil diet has been shown in a mountain of evidence based peer reviewed medical research over the last 40 years to prevent, halt and even reverse up to 80% of chronic diseases that are crippling our health, healthcare system and our economy it seems to me that none of these political leaders can claim to be addressing environmental, healthcare or economic issues if they refuse to even acknowledge this problem and it’s readily implantable solution.

    The recent EAT -Lancet report (2019, Harvard) outlines in great detail the essential steps necessary for the planet to survive through the necessary transition to healthy planetary plant based diet. Why is no one listening?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


*