, 10.27.2019 08:43 AM

Trump kills ISIS head: will it get him re-elected?

It’s big news, certainly.

And, naturally, Republicans will say that the death of the head of ISIS will make their leader a lot more popular. They will say it’ll get him re-elected as president. But are they right?

Well, the only recent precedent we have to go on is the killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011, which had been ordered by Barack Obama. It was pretty popular, too. Obama even made a controversial campaign ad about it in 2012.

Obama was re-elected in that year, but that probably had more to do with his opponent, and the improving economy, than the dead al-Qaeda leader.

Gallup, for example, found that Americans’ approval of Obama was up six points after the death of Osama bin Laden in a U.S. raid on the al-Qaeda leader’s Pakistan compound. Obama averaged 46 per cent approval in Gallup Daily tracking in the three days leading up to the military operation – and averaged 52 per cent in the days that followed. Gallup called it “typical for rally events.”

Ditto Pew. They found that the mission to take out bin Laden did nothing to diminish Americans’ concerns about Obama’s handling of the economy, Pew reported in the Washington Post.

There, 56 per cent of Americans said they approved of Obama’s performance in office overall, which was nine percentage points higher than an ABC News/Washington Post poll found in the previous month.

But on the economy, Pew said, Obama’s numbers remained pretty low and unchanged — only 40 per cent approved of his economic strategy, which was the lowest rating of his presidency.

And so on. The guy who recently left the Kurds to be killed by the Turks – and who thereby permitted the escape of scores of ISIS prisoners who had been held by the Kurds – now wants credit for killing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi?

He’ll get some. But not enough to prevent his impeachment in 2019, and his loss of the presidency in 2020.

6 Comments

  1. Peter says:

    but it’s not some TSN Turning Point.

    No, those are being provided by the Democrats in their primary debates.

    We have become used to thinking of the American electorate as divided (alarmingly bitterly) between pro-Trumpers and anti-Trumpers, but there seems to be a new group emerging—the anti-anti-Trumpers. These are people who have no use for him but are disgusted and quite worried about the fevered, never-ending attacks on his legitimacy by the Dems, MSM and “Resistance”, as well as the sharp Dem turn to the far left. They may not be all that large in numbers, but they could make a difference in a tight race.

    • Fred from BC says:

      “These are people who have no use for him but are disgusted and quite worried about the fevered, never-ending attacks on his legitimacy by the Dems, MSM and “Resistance””

      Couldn’t have said it any better.

      Look at the Washington Post headline fiasco two days ago, just for the most recent example. “Religious scholar”? Seriously? No wonder people have tuned out the news media…they have absolutely no shame.

  2. Chris says:

    The success of Trump in 2020 will probably have little to do with him and a lot do do with who the Democrats choose to oppose him. Any Impeachment of Trump will have about as much affect as Bill Clinton’s Impeachment had on him; ie. little. The Senate is not going to convict him (unless some currently unknown miracle Republican Presidential hopeful rises up to challenge Trump).
    Choose a centrist (Biden, et al) and the Dems will probably win the White House. Choose a leftist/socialist then all bets are off.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Chris,

      That’s certainly standard boilerplate. But then there’s the glorious exception of Barack Obama in 2008.

    • Fred from BC says:

      “The success of Trump in 2020 will probably have little to do with him and a lot do do with who the Democrats choose to oppose him.”

      That person had better step forward pretty quickly, then. It certainly won’t be any of the current contenders.

  3. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    What I wouldn’t give for Hillary to get in. Even with what I wrote above, it would be beyond exquisite if Hillary got in and ended up wiping the floor with Trump. One hell of a grudge match.

    I can tell you right now it would be the best political orgasm of my life if Hillary rolled Trump. And another thing: she owes Biden, or anyone else, already in the race Z-I-P. If she really and truly wants in, then get in now. Screw the political courtesies. Fight like hell and take no prisoners.

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