— Musings —10.17.2019 03:57 PM
Vote now in the Daisy Group election pool!
Aaaaand all the Daisy Group folks have all voted. Have you?
Post your prediction in comments now, so we can all be wrong together! (Whoever is closest to the final tally will get signed copies of my books!)
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I always enjoy renting a pizza and settling in to watch election night coverage.
Libs 137
CPC 149
NDP 18
Green 2
Bloc 30
PPC 1
Ind 1
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Here’s my prediction: Con 163, Lib 111, Bloc 34, N 24, G 4, Ind 1, PPC 1.
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Lib 146
CPC 131
Bloc 33
NDP 25
Green 2
PPC 1
Sadly I don’t think Jody or Jane will win their seats, much as I’d like them to. I also think the Greens peaked way too soon and will only hold the two seats on Vancouver Island that they already have. Disappointing night for the Greens who seemed poised to win 8-10 seats a month ago.
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May’s foolish attempt to justify separatist Pierre Nantel didn’t help. She deserves to lose.
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Vancouverois,
I take it you mean in her riding?
As far as I’m concerned, it’s nothing more than water off a duck’s back. Don’t sweat the small separatist stuff. Save your fury for either the third Quebec referendum, or Alberta’s first, cause BOTH are coming.
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There’s little chance she’ll lose in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
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Based on a CBC poll tracker prediction from a couple days ago:
Liberal 134
Conservative 134
NDP 33
Bloc 33
Green 4
I got a signed copy of one of James Bow’s books through his pool during the Orange Crush election. Still waiting for him to become world famous so I can sell it and retire.
I’ll also take Oct 22 on the Trudeau resignation pool.
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How do you expect Trudeau to resign when he maintains his job as PM?
The only way to get Trudeau out is to have a CPC gov’t.
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A Liberal Prime Minister doesn’t have to be Trudeau. They have no reason to keep him as leader.
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Would the Liberals not have a constitution and rules related to ditching leaders?
or is that another one of those rules that don’t apply to Liberals.
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Walter,
All parties have leadership review mechanisms but all it would take is a verbal expression of non-confidence in the leader right after an election loss.
Point is, in the Liberals’ case, they quite likely don’t even have the balls to do that, even if Scheer gets a majority.
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Darwin,
That is, if there’s still a Liberal Prime Minister. Maybe Scheer can build on a minority win, just like Harper did and maybe not. They need at minimum, in that context, to set the NDP and BQ dials at neutral. That can be done if played right, both can be turned agnostic toward a Scheer minority. Not so for the GP. (Remember when Michael said Canadians didn’t want another election right away and so…)
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Scheer is doubliing down on eliminating Carbon Tax as his first act. There is no being agnostic to that for any of the other parties.
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Darwin,
Can’t argue with that logic.
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CPC 138
LPC 132
NDP 33
BQ 30
Green 3
PPC 1
Ind 1
In short – an unholy mess, with no clear path to cobble together the magic 170 votes short of some “rainbow coalition” of everyone except the CPC and Mad Max.
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Well look on the bright side. We get more election speculation fun in just 18-24 months when Canadians go to the polls again.
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If it’s as close as they predict – it may be in less than 12 months.
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Liars 135
Cons 135
Separatists 33
Communist 34
Independent 1
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Ok Warren. First thing is I’d fire you ’cause you’re short 2 seats. I’d take you back, but only as an unpaid volunteer because I admire your ruthless, take-no-prisoners approach. My prediction:
CPC 150
LPC 13o
BQ 28
NDP 28
Gr 2
Inp 0
What say yea?
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The over/under is 130 seats. If the Liberals get anything less than 130, JT’s stepping down as Liberal leader. More than 130 and Libs lose: he’s not going quietly into the night. He’s hangin’ on.
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Well then Douglas! If you put it that way, make it LPC 129, NDP 29 😉
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CPC: 175
LPC: 72
NDP: 50
BQ: 35
GPC: 4
IND: 2
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IND: 2 = JWR AND JP.
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Good catch! I missed them. Strike 2 from LPC. Add 2 to Independents
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Here is my prediction
Conservatives 138
Liberals 126
NDP 33
Bloc 37
Green 3
Ind 1
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LPC 106
CPC 156
NDP 32
BQ 37
IND 2
PPC 1
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Oops forgot to add the Green party
GPC 4
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Here are my predictions.
Con 180
Lib 97
NDP 34
Green 1
BQ 25
Ind 1
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Both the Liberals and Conservatives will be in the 120 to 140 range. Probably another election in early 2021 with most of the parties under new leadership. Surprisingly Singh is the most likely to survive. Biggest prediction of all: a round of Constitutional battles not seen since the early 90’s as TMX will stall out again, nothing will be done to adjust the equalization formula and Quebec will be emboldened by weak federal leadership. The Conservatives will have learned the lesson thar nice doesn’t win and choose a new leader accordingly. It will be too soon for Jason Kenney to make the leap. Peter MacKay was unimpressive in Cabinet. Brad Wall would absolutely be the best leader but sadly the Laurentian Elite has built the narrative that a PM must speak both languages, in effect cementing its stranglehold. The new leader will be a dark horse.
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Doug,
While I don’t necessarily agree, any serious politician who aspires to fill the highest political position in the land is already bright enough to do what it takes to become as rapidly as possible functionally bilingual. Harper, Day, Scheer, Kenney, MacKay, Ambrose and others have already done so…what’s Wall’s excuse?
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The Conservative party will always be challenged to find a strong leader who also speaks both languages:
-French is uncommonly spoken outside of QC and parts of ON and NB
-people with private sector experience are less likely to know French than those you have worked in government
-people with business and STEM backgrounds are less likely to know French
-people who lean right of center are less likely to know French
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Doug,
In the end it’s about proactive action after entering federal politics. Here’s another thing that gets my goat: a smart leader would automatically choose to run his or her office, as much as possible, in French to create a natural éponge environment but you don’t see Scheer, Singh or May doing that…
And Trudeau should be running his PMO in French. I just cringe when I hear his spoken French errors. My French is Justin-Calibre but I’m not the goddamned PM.
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Cutthroat? Bilingual? Dark horse?
Pierre Poilievre, come on down!
In all seriousness, they’d be stupid not to pick Michelle Rempel or Lisa Raitt. Everyone thinks Rona is waiting in the wings but she’s a bit of a lightweight. If they’re hell-bent on picking a male, Erin O’Toole would be a safe choice. Maybe James Moore could be enticed back out of retirement?
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Gord,
A wee bit premature wouldn’t you say to be already writing Scheer’s political obituary?
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I can’t see Scheer forming a stable government. Even if he gets the call from the GG, I foresee a re-run of Joe Clark, except the Liberals dump their leader for someone else before the next election.
The Liberals are a trainwreck. It’s quite possible that we will re-elect a prime minister who can’t remember how many times he wore blackface. The fact that Scheer is not running away with this election is a pretty damning indictment of his electability, if you ask me. Not to mention Hamish Marshall is no Doug Finley.
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Gord,
Yeah but even with Finley, it still took three kicks at the can to get that majority.
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Rona Ambrose please!
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What’s Bernard Lord up to these days?
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Chris,
Didn’t work out too well last time when two certain Conservatives were hoping to replace Harper with Lord. Somebody did a lot of crying leaving a PMO meeting. If you’re nodding, you’re already in the know. Congrats!
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1997.
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Liberals: 135
Conservatives: 133
New Democrats: 34
BQ: 34
Greens: 1
Independent: 1 (JW-R)
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CPC: 154
LPC: 100
NDP: 38
BQ : 38
GPC: 3
PPC: 3
Ind: 2
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Liberals at 100 seats means that they’ll get 40 seats in Ontario. Don’t see that happening. They’re going to get 40 seats in the GTA.
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CPC:132
LPC:136
NDP:34
BQ:30
GREEN:4
PPC:1
IND:1
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Cons 166
Libs 120
NDP 22
BQ 23
G 4
I 3
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Tom’s been drinking the kool…urgh.. kambucha.
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DART has the Conservatives leading in Ontario and running third in Atlantic Canada. Angus-Reid has the Conservatives leading in Atlantic Canada as of Oct. 15. Which polling firm had the best results in 2015?
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AV,
If you mean national results from rolling polls, it was NANOS but another firm was relatively close behind. Can’t remember who that was…anybody?
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Think it was IPSOS but not sure.
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I thought CBC/Grenier had Scheer significantly behind in Ontario? Although that was a couple of days ago.
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L..134
Cons…147
Green ..2
NDP …21
BQ…29
Ind…2
PPC…1
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The final polls from Nanos and Forum were pretty close to the final result. EKOS got the CPC and NDP vote right but (surprisingly) low-balled the Grits by almost 4%. Ipsos overstated the NDP vote.
I generally trust Nanos the most, as they are (I believe) the only firm that does daily rolling polls, and they seem to be the best at picking up last minute swings (in both 2006 and 2015, they captured signifcant movement in the final days from the NDP to the Grits).
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Gord,
Merci!
Two did rolling polls last time.
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Cons 140
Grits 125
Bloc 40
Dippers 28
Green 4
Ind (JWR) 1
PPC 0
Shy Tories and shy Trudeau-phobes push the race towards the CPC. Bloc gains at the expense of the Grits and Dippers. Small Green wave in BC yields 4 seats, and the anti-JT trend comes out for JWR. And Rick Perkins picks up South Shore–St Margarets for the Tories.
The numbers for the Grits and Dippers are too low for a coalition, even with the Greens. JT tries to hold on, but loses a confidence vote on the Queen’s speech. Scheer takes a whack at governing, but won’t get any Dipper or Green support, and he doesn’t do the right deal with the Bloc.
So, a winter election coming up?
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If Trudeau is kicked out and gets investigated – he will be charged and eventually found guilty of Obstruction of Justice – thus, he will want to retain power.
NDP and Bloc have the most influence on a Liberal gov’t in a weak minority situation – they will not want to upset the applecart.
If Trudeau is removed as Liberal leader, NDP and Bloc would fear that the replacement will be better and they would lose their power as the Liberals move towards a majority, or the replacement will be worse** and then the CPC will move to a majority. Thus, the minor parties must prop up the Liberals and insist that Trudeau stay in power long enough to ensure that he destroys the country enough so that the NDP (or Green) become the progressive alternative.
With any type of minority, Scheer cannot step down for an election could be imminent at any time.
Thus, this election (as projected) ensures that there will be no change in any party leadership and Canada will accelerate towards self destruction.
** – although nobody can be worse than Trudeau, I suspect that the new leaders hair may not be as good – resulting in all Liberals who vote based on looks to abandon the new leader.
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Cons 169
Libs 118
NDP 16
BQ 32
G 2
I 1
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Last time I publicly made an election prediction I was working for a national Port Authority. I predicted the rise of the Reformers to within 2 seats. Embarassed the hell out of the career civil servant types. Almost got me fired . Now I’m retired so no fear…here goes:
CPC: 168
LPC: 108
NDP: 26
BQ : 32
GPC: 2
PPC: 1
Ind: 1
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Predict – Jason Kenney to be the David Cameron of Alberta after allowing a Leave Canada referendum next year, Westexit, but campaigning (and losing) for the Remain side. This after Trudeau strikes an alliance with the NDP and Greens to govern instead of the CPC which would have the plurality, killing all pipeline projects.
Finally, we can break up this farce of a country and all its regional enmity.
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I won’t do specific numbers, but as much as I dislike him, I think JT will still be PM once it’s all said and done. What nags at me are those Ontario numbers for Scheer, which are lousy last time I checked. And he’s sucking wind in Quebec too. Maybe we’re in a new world here, but since when did anyone win a plurality or majority of seats when they lost both in Quebec and Ontario?
That said, I suck at election predictions. See 2016.
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No, you are right. Scheer’s talk about winning has spooked some progressives, and the impact is being felt in Ontario. He is falling behind in Ontario.
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It was extraordinarily foolish of him.
You’d think he’d remember how the same thing happened with Harper back in the day when he also started speculating that they’d get a majority, but no. Some people never learn.
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Vancouverois,
Conservatives, as a rule, have an unnatural affinity with bravado and bluster. Some people just can’t help themselves, it’s in their political DNA…
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2006, 1962.
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CPC 146
LPC 136
NDP 21
BQ 29
Green 3
PPC 0
Ind 1
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My prediction based on reported advance poll turn-out and organization + money.
Lib 140
Con 130
NDP 29
Grn 3
PPC 1
Ind 1
BQ 34
My prediction based on seat projection sites and thing going well for the opposition parties
Lib 121
Con 139
NDP 37
Grn 3
PPC 1
Ind 1
BQ 36
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CPC 164
Lib 85
NDP 42
Bloc Q 42
Green 3
PPC (Max) 1
Ind (JWR) 1
Conservative support under-reported in polling. Max’s 2.3% national numbers enough to prevent CPC majority. Major civil-war battle amongst Liberal insiders as to Trudeau’s survival. Blocked highways, railroads, and pipelines on BC-Alta border if Trudeau stays.
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I won’t be able to make up my mind until Blanchet debates Bernier over the Canada Food Guide in a live televised debate.
Also I think we are in for a King / Byng affair type debacle starting Tuesday morning.
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I think Warren has it nailed.
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Cons: 130
Libs: 132
NDP: 36
Bloc: 34
Greens: 4
PPC: 1
Ind: 1
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LPC – 121
CPC – 142
NDP – 33
GPC – 3
BQ – 38
PPC – 0
IND – 1
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Conservatives 173
Liberals 101
BQ 38
NDP 23
Green 2
PPC 1
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i don’t believe any of the polls
cons – 149
libs – 126
ndp – 42
ind – 2
green – 2
bloc – the rest
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Cons -185
Lib – 106
NDP – 20
Green – 2
Bloc – 20
PPC – 1
IND – 2
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Oh goody – a Conservative-Bloc coalition.
Can’t wait. >_<
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Vancouverois,
It’s been quite a while since you last gave me a belly laugh!
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Libs 137
Con 135
NDP 28
Green 5
Bloc 31
PPC 1
Ind 1
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CPC: 173
LPC: 82
NDP: 38
Bloc: 40
Greens: 2
Independents: 2
PP: 1
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I think Scheer has blown it in Ontario – the polls are moving the wrong direction there. At this point, the Tories have to hope the polls are wrong. The Grits will likely be able to carry on with NDP support – the question is whether Singh demands a full coalition government or just a confidence and supply arrangement. In either case, get ready for a round of Western alienation not seen since the early 1980s.
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Liberal 139
Conservative 128
NDP 33
Bloc 33
Green 3
PPC 1
Ind 1
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This feels about right to me.
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There is only one prediction of which I feel confident,
Independent: 2
and
Remaining seats: Squirrel!
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NDP jumped overnight. Will hurt liberals
CPC: 139,
JT: 132,
NDP: 24,
BLOC: 42,
GRN: 1