Bernie’s not going to win. Last time he could run as “not Hillary” and “not the DNC establishment” and get 40% of the vote. This time here are lots of so-called “progressive” options. His floor is high (committed supporters) but his ceiling is low.
Mayor Pete would fit in just fine on a West Wing episode and like the West Wing, is a liberal fantasy that will not translate to reality. Probably gets a bump in Iowa as a Midwesterner.
Warren is a strong candidate, but she’s damaged goods. Unlike Obama, she has no positive or optimistic vision to offer voters – just “I’m not Trump” and “look at what a rigged system we have”. Trump branded her as Pocahontas early and often, and she played right into it by taking the DNA test and then was forced to apologize. It takes some kind of special talent to lose coming and going at identity politics. They will define her as the “shrill scolding schoolmarm” and she will have limited appeal to swing voters.
Biden has looked doddering and “low energy” and the questions about his son’s business dealings will not go away (shades of the Clinton Foundation). That said, he’s still got good national numbers and is a known quantity.
Harris has really faded down the stretch. I have a hard time believing Klobuchar (my preferred candidate) is ahead of her in Iowa but I can only assume it’s a bit of a ‘favourite daughter’ effect being a Midwestern candidate (and from a neighbouring state, to boot).
A Biden-Klobuchar ticket would probably be the most electable combo, but I suspect we’re going to get Warren-Booker or Warren-O’Rourke
” I have a hard time believing Klobuchar (my preferred candidate) is ahead of her in Iowa”
I know nothing about Yang, but regarding everyone else, Klobuchar seems to be the only one lacking both significant political baggage and/or a history of making inane (or insane) public statements.
It’s clearly not her time yet, but perhaps next time…
I don’t think Amy is perfect by any means, but from the beginning she has struck me as sensible and pragmatic. My bias, but for those reasons I basically like her. I’m glad that she’s hung in there.
Agreed. At least now she’ll have some name recognition going for her next time (like most people, I had never heard of her). I understand that she did well in the debates?
There are four candidates with anything approximating support. Everyone else needs to have their horoscopes read to them, since they apparently aren’t bright enough to figure out that they are not only wasting their time, they are wasting other people’s money, and they are distracting the discussion.
As for the four candidates with anything approximating support, it appears that the differentiating feature is the adjective, not the noun. As in what type of pet droppings are we looking at. The key word is the noun (droppings), not the adjective (the type of animal) that left the droppings.
Which brings me back to WK’s lede. Another four years of Trump.
Warren is an attractive option, both for those of a progressive bent and those who are mushy middle types. Her proposals offer real change that polls demonstrate Americans support but she’s no radical and doesn’t scare people, except for the bankers I suppose. Biden’s time has passed, Bernie is a bit of a wildcard, Buttigieg looks good but is there substance?
As long as they remember to come together for the election I don’t think Trump will stick.
For starters, it’s painfully evident that Trump is the next President Deschanel…and we’re not talking about his cognitive problems here.
Add the latter to the mix and you get a considerable level of uncertainty if Trump even has the mental capacity to run in 2020 — not to mention serve as Republican nominee.
So, his run is a big ? I’m of the view that 2020 will be a transformative election rather than another marker of the status quo. Quite literally, anything could happen what with increasing participation by young people on voting day.
We’re far too early in the cycle to anoint anyone. Let’s see if Trump is even capable of making it to the finish line first, before we call this race.
The Democrats need young blood. Sanders is 78, Biden is 76 and Warren 70. If I was looking at Democrats in the US. I would be looking at Kamala Harris or others. The Republicans under Trump also have to look at young leader as well. If Sanders or Biden got in as President they finish their first term in their 80’s. You will notice our Canadian leaders are all in their 40’s except Elizabeth May.
We’re about to get more of? Not us, we’re Canadian, and therefore of a higher moral and intellectual order. Why, we’ve just elected a PM of unparalleled substance and integrity to guide us through these troubled times. I tell you, the world needs more Canada!
Democrats are all about free everything – health care, education, housing, wide open immigration, climate insanity, tax the rich and on and on. Does the phrase “Lunatic left” come to mind.
Meanwhile under the Republicans, the economy is booming, jobless numbers at all time low, after tax income at all time low.
All the impeachment noise will soon be countered by the upcoming DOJ reports coming on misconduct by FBI and CIA et al. Impeachment will eventually fail in the Senate as there will never be enough Republican votes to convict and plenty of Democrat seats in Trump districts are also in perilous positions.
In summary the farther left the Democrats go, the bigger the Trump victory.
Climate insanity: AOC green new deal, or no adults in the room ( rational discussion from experts with different fact based opinion) when St Greta proclaims impending doom.
Would any parent let their children make important fiscal decisions for their own family, let alone world wide economic and social policy? I think not, as likely just as the heat and lights go off the little darling would flounce in sporting the newest I-phone or other must have bauble.
Currently there is no reliable renewable power source. Wind, solar are very intermittent and require oil, coal or nuclear backup to avoid crippling and dangerous outages.
Battery technology to run airlines, cargo ships, heavy truck s, and large industrial or agricultural equipment does not exist.
The global warming theory is based on computer models using questionable data and so far none of the many doomsday predictions have proven true. What has been proven is that some models were created by fudging data(hockey stickgraph etc) to produce desirable results.
Climate insanity is legislating the developed world back to the stone age while ignoring the major polluters like China and India.
Point 2 immigration. Ask any native German, French or Scandinavian citizen how mass unchecked migration of culturally opposite people has worked out in their countries. Immigration is necessary and beneficial to the west but reasonable qualification and process must be followed or results will be negative.
I wouldn’t go nearly as far on the climate issue as you, Daryl, but your general points are not unfair, particularly about renewable resource power sources and other invocations of Elizabeth May’s Green Energy Fairy. I know it is dangerous in these parts to suggest Trump can ever be truly funny, but he can, and he can make his opposition look like sour curmudgeons when he is. I very much enjoyed his quip at one of his recent crazy rallies.: “Dear, I want to watch President Trump tonight.” “Sorry, Honey, you can’t, the wind isn’t blowing.”
Tell you what Peter. Are you willing to bet that Trump has made more people laugh than cry since assuming office? I’ll never take that bet. But yes, undoubtedly, he can actually be funny.
” I very much enjoyed his quip at one of his recent crazy rallies.”
I’ve never seen one of his rallies, but I finally got to watch him speak at length last weekend (while visiting friends on Vancouver Island). It was a law enforcement conference in Chicago. He really knows how to work a room, for sure.
Biden shouldn’t be allowed ten miles from the Oval Office. He’s been on the wrong side of history on every key issue to every constituency of the Democratic Party. He might be in deeper dementia than Trump, he can barely put words together on the debate stage.
I’d say Biden would be the best choice of the top 4 candidates.
Maybe not in terms of elect-ability – but maybe in terms of not destroying the country.
If I’m a US company paying health care premiums for my employees, and you are not, why in God’s name would I continue to do so if the government is going to take what I pay in premiums and up my taxes as well. (You, apparently, get off with just the higher taxes, under Warren’s {Elizabeth} scheme.)
I’d be an eager Trump supporter under that scenario.
Are the Dems so financially illiterate to understand the basics?
But face it, this article was written because Joe Biden is dropping out of the Democratic field: he drained his donor base and has even blocked Bloomberg’s entry..,facepalm.
There is Buttiegeg. Bordeline genius. Trouble is American’s are not cognitively proficient at the scale needed. So he just needs to hire the Prince of Darkness, White Duke of the Danforth, Warren Kinsella. Make that call already, Kinsella.
I personally advised his campaign to go after Trump’s alcoholic mother arguing that Trump suffers from fetal alcohol syndrome which explains his impulsiveness, post-womb. Every time he does something impulsive: it’s fetal alcohol syndrome folks. Bring up Trump’s older brother who was an alcoholic, impulsive person, who tragically passed away very young. Trump can’t deny the latter AND when Trump says his mother was a tee-totaller, especially when he was in utero, Buttiegeg then replies that others disagree, and that we need to dig up her remains to get a hair sample to get the truth about what ‘a lot of people are saying’ that: she was a winno in 1946. Raise money for fetal alcoholism charities in the process. Buttiegeg’s campaign has not returned my calls however.
Liza Warren’s objectives are as extreme as Trump’s but in somewhat an opposing direction. She is doing everything correctly now, since we know that ultimately once in power there is a negotiated bartering agreement between multiple legislative cluster which inevitably water down any Democratic or Reopublican presidents aspirations, as described by Howard Shultz. Anyway, building a Wall is impossible thanks to funding shortages / Creating An Effective Wealth Tax is Impossible thanks to Deloitte, KPMG, EY and PwC.
Elizabeth Warren is going to offer the same economic nationalism that Trump espouses so that nullifies a HUGE plank of Trump’s re-election campaign: which is a mixed result anyway; even with employment way way up south of the border.
I wore my Trump shirt to the ballot box for The Canadian and on the subway to the Leaf game that same night… Here’s what I learned:
a) if you don’t want anyone to sit beside you on transit in this crummy city, wear a Trump shirt on the subway.
b) if you want strangers to approach you and offer to shake your hand so they can share their “secret” support for the American President, you’ll be surprised at exactly how many new friends you’ll make.
MAGA 2020, kids!!! God Bless America and God Bless The President. Hugs!
First of all, to basically argue that “there are a whole bunch of candidates for the Democratic nomination so Trump is going to win” is a classic non-sequitur. One does not necessarily logically follow from the other.
Secondly, the whole Trump approval rating factor is one of the most badly and improperly reported polling stats out there. What matters most is not his approval rating but his net disapproval rating, and that latter number is absolutely horrible. As of today, he’s in excess of a negative 13 at 538.com, he’s well over minus 11 at RCP and he’s minus 17 in Gallup. Morning Consult is the best source for state by state numbers, which are obviously important because of the electoral college. Again, there it does not look good for Trump.
Furthermore, the stickiness of Trump’s approval ratings likely means that it will be unusually difficult for Trump’s 2020 campaign to move those numbers. Usually unpopular incumbents count on being able to move numbers significantly in an election campaign. But Trump is not a normal candidate in this regard.
I’m not counting Trump out by any means, but he faces significant headwinds. And he is so loathed by Democratic and moderate voters that a lot of them will crawl over broken glass naked to the voting booth to vote for whomever the Democratic candidate will be. The vote blue no matter who factor will be significant in 2020.
To which I can only add: “Yayyyyy!!!!”
Bernie’s not going to win. Last time he could run as “not Hillary” and “not the DNC establishment” and get 40% of the vote. This time here are lots of so-called “progressive” options. His floor is high (committed supporters) but his ceiling is low.
Mayor Pete would fit in just fine on a West Wing episode and like the West Wing, is a liberal fantasy that will not translate to reality. Probably gets a bump in Iowa as a Midwesterner.
Warren is a strong candidate, but she’s damaged goods. Unlike Obama, she has no positive or optimistic vision to offer voters – just “I’m not Trump” and “look at what a rigged system we have”. Trump branded her as Pocahontas early and often, and she played right into it by taking the DNA test and then was forced to apologize. It takes some kind of special talent to lose coming and going at identity politics. They will define her as the “shrill scolding schoolmarm” and she will have limited appeal to swing voters.
Biden has looked doddering and “low energy” and the questions about his son’s business dealings will not go away (shades of the Clinton Foundation). That said, he’s still got good national numbers and is a known quantity.
Harris has really faded down the stretch. I have a hard time believing Klobuchar (my preferred candidate) is ahead of her in Iowa but I can only assume it’s a bit of a ‘favourite daughter’ effect being a Midwestern candidate (and from a neighbouring state, to boot).
A Biden-Klobuchar ticket would probably be the most electable combo, but I suspect we’re going to get Warren-Booker or Warren-O’Rourke
“Trump branded her as Pocahontas early and often, and she played right into it by taking the DNA test and then was forced to apologize.”
Didn’t she also use her supposed native ancestry to get admitted to Harvard or something?
Regardless, I don’t see anyone on that list who could beat Trump, especially if the economy and employment numbers stay healthy.
” I have a hard time believing Klobuchar (my preferred candidate) is ahead of her in Iowa”
I know nothing about Yang, but regarding everyone else, Klobuchar seems to be the only one lacking both significant political baggage and/or a history of making inane (or insane) public statements.
It’s clearly not her time yet, but perhaps next time…
I don’t think Amy is perfect by any means, but from the beginning she has struck me as sensible and pragmatic. My bias, but for those reasons I basically like her. I’m glad that she’s hung in there.
Agreed. At least now she’ll have some name recognition going for her next time (like most people, I had never heard of her). I understand that she did well in the debates?
There are four candidates with anything approximating support. Everyone else needs to have their horoscopes read to them, since they apparently aren’t bright enough to figure out that they are not only wasting their time, they are wasting other people’s money, and they are distracting the discussion.
As for the four candidates with anything approximating support, it appears that the differentiating feature is the adjective, not the noun. As in what type of pet droppings are we looking at. The key word is the noun (droppings), not the adjective (the type of animal) that left the droppings.
Which brings me back to WK’s lede. Another four years of Trump.
And everyone thought the Canadian election was crappy.
To quote one of Canada’s great philosophers, the situation in the Lower 48 can be summed up as “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.”
Warren is an attractive option, both for those of a progressive bent and those who are mushy middle types. Her proposals offer real change that polls demonstrate Americans support but she’s no radical and doesn’t scare people, except for the bankers I suppose. Biden’s time has passed, Bernie is a bit of a wildcard, Buttigieg looks good but is there substance?
As long as they remember to come together for the election I don’t think Trump will stick.
For starters, it’s painfully evident that Trump is the next President Deschanel…and we’re not talking about his cognitive problems here.
Add the latter to the mix and you get a considerable level of uncertainty if Trump even has the mental capacity to run in 2020 — not to mention serve as Republican nominee.
So, his run is a big ? I’m of the view that 2020 will be a transformative election rather than another marker of the status quo. Quite literally, anything could happen what with increasing participation by young people on voting day.
We’re far too early in the cycle to anoint anyone. Let’s see if Trump is even capable of making it to the finish line first, before we call this race.
The Democrats need young blood. Sanders is 78, Biden is 76 and Warren 70. If I was looking at Democrats in the US. I would be looking at Kamala Harris or others. The Republicans under Trump also have to look at young leader as well. If Sanders or Biden got in as President they finish their first term in their 80’s. You will notice our Canadian leaders are all in their 40’s except Elizabeth May.
We’re about to get more of? Not us, we’re Canadian, and therefore of a higher moral and intellectual order. Why, we’ve just elected a PM of unparalleled substance and integrity to guide us through these troubled times. I tell you, the world needs more Canada!
Democrats are all about free everything – health care, education, housing, wide open immigration, climate insanity, tax the rich and on and on. Does the phrase “Lunatic left” come to mind.
Meanwhile under the Republicans, the economy is booming, jobless numbers at all time low, after tax income at all time low.
All the impeachment noise will soon be countered by the upcoming DOJ reports coming on misconduct by FBI and CIA et al. Impeachment will eventually fail in the Senate as there will never be enough Republican votes to convict and plenty of Democrat seats in Trump districts are also in perilous positions.
In summary the farther left the Democrats go, the bigger the Trump victory.
Daryl,
You lost me at the double canards: wide open immigration and climate insanity.
Climate insanity: AOC green new deal, or no adults in the room ( rational discussion from experts with different fact based opinion) when St Greta proclaims impending doom.
Would any parent let their children make important fiscal decisions for their own family, let alone world wide economic and social policy? I think not, as likely just as the heat and lights go off the little darling would flounce in sporting the newest I-phone or other must have bauble.
Currently there is no reliable renewable power source. Wind, solar are very intermittent and require oil, coal or nuclear backup to avoid crippling and dangerous outages.
Battery technology to run airlines, cargo ships, heavy truck s, and large industrial or agricultural equipment does not exist.
The global warming theory is based on computer models using questionable data and so far none of the many doomsday predictions have proven true. What has been proven is that some models were created by fudging data(hockey stickgraph etc) to produce desirable results.
Climate insanity is legislating the developed world back to the stone age while ignoring the major polluters like China and India.
Point 2 immigration. Ask any native German, French or Scandinavian citizen how mass unchecked migration of culturally opposite people has worked out in their countries. Immigration is necessary and beneficial to the west but reasonable qualification and process must be followed or results will be negative.
Just sayin.
I wouldn’t go nearly as far on the climate issue as you, Daryl, but your general points are not unfair, particularly about renewable resource power sources and other invocations of Elizabeth May’s Green Energy Fairy. I know it is dangerous in these parts to suggest Trump can ever be truly funny, but he can, and he can make his opposition look like sour curmudgeons when he is. I very much enjoyed his quip at one of his recent crazy rallies.: “Dear, I want to watch President Trump tonight.” “Sorry, Honey, you can’t, the wind isn’t blowing.”
Tell you what Peter. Are you willing to bet that Trump has made more people laugh than cry since assuming office? I’ll never take that bet. But yes, undoubtedly, he can actually be funny.
” I very much enjoyed his quip at one of his recent crazy rallies.”
I’ve never seen one of his rallies, but I finally got to watch him speak at length last weekend (while visiting friends on Vancouver Island). It was a law enforcement conference in Chicago. He really knows how to work a room, for sure.
Typo: after tax income at all time high
Biden shouldn’t be allowed ten miles from the Oval Office. He’s been on the wrong side of history on every key issue to every constituency of the Democratic Party. He might be in deeper dementia than Trump, he can barely put words together on the debate stage.
I’d say Biden would be the best choice of the top 4 candidates.
Maybe not in terms of elect-ability – but maybe in terms of not destroying the country.
If I’m a US company paying health care premiums for my employees, and you are not, why in God’s name would I continue to do so if the government is going to take what I pay in premiums and up my taxes as well. (You, apparently, get off with just the higher taxes, under Warren’s {Elizabeth} scheme.)
I’d be an eager Trump supporter under that scenario.
Are the Dems so financially illiterate to understand the basics?
Good grief!
Will
Hi KmmF here,
Eye roll on this article; campaigns matter, etc,
But face it, this article was written because Joe Biden is dropping out of the Democratic field: he drained his donor base and has even blocked Bloomberg’s entry..,facepalm.
There is Buttiegeg. Bordeline genius. Trouble is American’s are not cognitively proficient at the scale needed. So he just needs to hire the Prince of Darkness, White Duke of the Danforth, Warren Kinsella. Make that call already, Kinsella.
I personally advised his campaign to go after Trump’s alcoholic mother arguing that Trump suffers from fetal alcohol syndrome which explains his impulsiveness, post-womb. Every time he does something impulsive: it’s fetal alcohol syndrome folks. Bring up Trump’s older brother who was an alcoholic, impulsive person, who tragically passed away very young. Trump can’t deny the latter AND when Trump says his mother was a tee-totaller, especially when he was in utero, Buttiegeg then replies that others disagree, and that we need to dig up her remains to get a hair sample to get the truth about what ‘a lot of people are saying’ that: she was a winno in 1946. Raise money for fetal alcoholism charities in the process. Buttiegeg’s campaign has not returned my calls however.
Liza Warren’s objectives are as extreme as Trump’s but in somewhat an opposing direction. She is doing everything correctly now, since we know that ultimately once in power there is a negotiated bartering agreement between multiple legislative cluster which inevitably water down any Democratic or Reopublican presidents aspirations, as described by Howard Shultz. Anyway, building a Wall is impossible thanks to funding shortages / Creating An Effective Wealth Tax is Impossible thanks to Deloitte, KPMG, EY and PwC.
Elizabeth Warren is going to offer the same economic nationalism that Trump espouses so that nullifies a HUGE plank of Trump’s re-election campaign: which is a mixed result anyway; even with employment way way up south of the border.
Bernie as VP and there is a serious shot there.
Just saying,
Kmmf.
Michelle Obama is waiting to be acclaimed the Democratic nominee (without campaigning).
Hillary is itching too run again, but Bernie will run as a 3rd party candidate if she does.
#TeamTulsi
I wore my Trump shirt to the ballot box for The Canadian and on the subway to the Leaf game that same night… Here’s what I learned:
a) if you don’t want anyone to sit beside you on transit in this crummy city, wear a Trump shirt on the subway.
b) if you want strangers to approach you and offer to shake your hand so they can share their “secret” support for the American President, you’ll be surprised at exactly how many new friends you’ll make.
MAGA 2020, kids!!! God Bless America and God Bless The President. Hugs!
First of all, to basically argue that “there are a whole bunch of candidates for the Democratic nomination so Trump is going to win” is a classic non-sequitur. One does not necessarily logically follow from the other.
Secondly, the whole Trump approval rating factor is one of the most badly and improperly reported polling stats out there. What matters most is not his approval rating but his net disapproval rating, and that latter number is absolutely horrible. As of today, he’s in excess of a negative 13 at 538.com, he’s well over minus 11 at RCP and he’s minus 17 in Gallup. Morning Consult is the best source for state by state numbers, which are obviously important because of the electoral college. Again, there it does not look good for Trump.
Furthermore, the stickiness of Trump’s approval ratings likely means that it will be unusually difficult for Trump’s 2020 campaign to move those numbers. Usually unpopular incumbents count on being able to move numbers significantly in an election campaign. But Trump is not a normal candidate in this regard.
I’m not counting Trump out by any means, but he faces significant headwinds. And he is so loathed by Democratic and moderate voters that a lot of them will crawl over broken glass naked to the voting booth to vote for whomever the Democratic candidate will be. The vote blue no matter who factor will be significant in 2020.