05.14.2020 08:55 AM

Straw man editorial

42 Comments


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    Douglas W says:

    He’ll go for it if he thinks he can secure a majority government.

    It’s all about him.


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      Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Douglas,

      Got to agree with Warren. The Liberals are all about being tactical but they aren’t suicidal.


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    Doug says:

    The Liberals will engineer an election, but probably not for a few months. Trudeau’s only competence is making people feel good about themselves. At some point, he won’t be able to stand in front of the camera spouting off pre-canned non-answers to questions and announcing even more free money. The Liberals know they will be in big trouble once the focus shifts back to the actual work of government. Printing money to artificially supress interest rates will produce all sorts of predictable and unintended consequences. Withdrawing support programs will hurt people. Canada’s investment climate was poor heading into the lockdown and is unlikely to recover under a government that repeatedly signals that economic growth is the responsibility of government and not private capital.

    Too bad the Conservatives aren’t resetting their leadership race.


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    Eastern Rebellion says:

    No reason to call an election now. Prime Minister Trudeau has gained quite a bit of political support through his current demonstration of leadership, and generally has governed appropriately, at least IMHO. The PC leadership has degenerated into a gong show, and there has not been any indication things will improve. The PM can wait until a new PC leader is chosen and then call an election, if he wishes. I can’t see the BQ or NDP wanting an election anytime soon, and will support the Liberals in the House.


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      Chris Sigvaldason says:

      The Bloc and the Liberals have essentially formed a coalition government to suppress any SNC embers and to shovel cash into Quebec, trying to buy votes. Things are good for them right now. The NDP is broke and the CPC in in flux. No election until winter/spring 2021.


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    Nick M. says:

    And Canadians hate elections.

    The longer he waits, an election issue is weather to give *amnesty* to CERB recipients who shouldn’t have received it.


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      Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Nick,

      I doubt they will take back the money before a vote. I wouldn’t. LOL.


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    joe long says:

    I think he’ll call an election for late August.

    Re risk to voters. He’ll say “Justin Trudeau is working hard to keep you safe. That’s why we’re expanding voting by mail.”

    If he calls the election around 10 July, he can still get a 36 day campaign done before the Conservatives pick a leader.

    Two counters: 1. Canadians don’t like early elections as Jim Prentice found out. But Justin, bolstered by popular polling will still go anyway.
    2. The COVID death toll in Montreal. If it drops and stays down into July, then I think Justin will call the election. If it doesn’t drop, or resurfaces in June/July, then it’s 50/50..


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      Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Joe,

      Poor Gentleman Jim. Glad I got to meet him once. Add to that how badly it went down when Prentice started warning about the dangers of a non-diversified economy. Wasn’t pretty, but he was ahead of his time. Alberta is suffering more than anywhere else because of the oil and gas industry one-trick pony.

      And I’ll ask again: where’s Kenney’s diversification plan? Oh right.


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        Chris Sigvaldason says:

        Don’t forget Rachel Notley. She loved to talk about diversification and “greening.” She did so for four whole years without any appreciable action (there is a polyethylene plant starting construction, that’s about it.) Newfoundland is still trying to diversify (remember Sprung Greenhouses.) New Brunswick too (remember Bricklin Automobile.)


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          Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Chris,

          Wow, that’s really going down memory lane.


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          joe long says:

          Rachel Notley’s idea of diversification was lots more government employees.

          We are still trying to figure out what they are doing.


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    Walter says:

    I don’t think Trudeau will call an election this year – but the logic of Warrens tweet does not make sense.
    It assumes that Trudeau has some compassion for Canadians getting infected and dieting.
    If he cared about it, he would have thrown away PPE last year, he wouldn’t have cut funding for pandemic preparedness by 30%, he wouldn’t have given our PPE to China, and he wouldn’t have left our borders to China open for February and March.


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    Mark D says:

    I think Canadians want Trudeau as prime minister, but in a minority government.


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    Steve T says:

    Cynical view:
    JT has been enjoying the minority-operating-as-a-majority structure, and will let it run as long as he’s able. He will use the opportunity to introduce increasingly provocative legislation, daring the opposition to defeat it and justify calling an early election.
    JT will never call an election without some parliamentary defeat – why would he? Who needs a real majority when you can just act like you have one?


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      Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Steve,

      The exact same strategy worked out just great for Harper during the two minorities.


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        Douglas W says:

        Butts will gauge how wounded the Conservative Party is, following its leadership vote.

        Then, they’ll decide when to pull the pin.


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    Mark says:

    The only way an election will be held soon is if the Liberals engineer a budget (timing still to be determined) that compels the support of none of the three major opposition parties. The government would have to fall because of the opposition, not in spite of it.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    I can’t sleep. My mom passed away on Saturday night at the age of 89 and 4 months. So, I’m going to do what I always do — I’m going to go over to my place and write something. Have no idea how it’ll go. But to borrow from you, I doubt that it’ll be profound.


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      Warren says:

      I am so sorry. Please accept my deepest condolences and let me know if there is anything I can do.


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        Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Thank you so much.


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      Fred from BC says:

      So sorry for your loss, Ron. I can only hope it was peaceful…


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        Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Thanks, Fred.


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      Mark D says:

      Prayers and condolences to you and your loved ones, Ronald. Especially right around Mother’s Day.


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        Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Mark,

        Thank you.


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    Miles Lunn says:

    No doubt Trudeau will want to go before debt spirals out of control but at same time I don’t think he will go too soon. Call one in the fall and if a second wave comes midway through campaign, he will get blamed for putting people at risk and pay the price so he is not dumb enough to do this.

    2021 or 2022 seems more likely as I think Trudeau will wait until there is a vaccine as last thing he wants is virus re-emerging during middle of campaign which is always a risk.

    I do think though he will get back in, but will be his last term. Tory candidates while not great, not horrible either, but their bigger problem is ideology. Canada is shifting sharply to the left and I think this crisis will make big government more popular thus meaning unless Tories break their principles they cannot win. Their chance will come when deficit spirals out of control by I think Trudeau wins majority in 2022, steps down in 2025 (10 years in office) and Freeland becomes PM. She wins a reduced majority in 2026 and then in 2030 Tories come back with some name most of us probably have never heard of today.


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      Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Miles,

      Here’s hoping MacKay doesn’t read this.


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      joe long says:

      Justin will be watching the situation in Quebec. If there is significant improvement in late June and early July, then I think he’ll call an election for late August. This catches the Conservatives with a new leader, and no time to campaign.

      In the upcoming months watch for all the Liberal attacks on the four Conservative leadership candidates.

      I think you’ll also see more spending announcements in the upcoming weeks. Watch for more money to universities, selected monies for more union jobs, and more media money.

      If he doesn’t call an election soon, then he has a massive deficit, no way to finance it, and what will he do with a second wave?

      After a second wave, Trudeau is toast. And with or without a second wave, 2021 will be spent dealing with a crappy economy. His government would fall in 2021.

      So I think if the situation in Quebec improves in late June and early July, Trudeau will call an election for late August.


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    Douglas W says:

    Next election: who has the best plan to move things forward again.


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      Chris Sigvaldason says:

      You are correct, with one stipulation…
      Every election: who has the best plan to move things forward again.


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        Douglas W says:

        Not every election comes after a catastrophic pandemic.


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          Fred from BC says:

          “Not every election comes after a catastrophic pandemic.”

          Very true. The extra debt alone will be a huge factor, I think.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Here’s the CPC Ballot Question:

    When we rank our preferences, what’s our mindset?

    Are we voting for Power or Principles?

    Answer that question correctly and you already know who’s our next leader.


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      Douglas W says:

      MacKay missteps way too often.

      Bobbles the easy grounders.

      Butts & Co. are going to have a field day with guy.


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        Douglas W says:

        *a field day with this guy.

        (Just pulled a MacKay)


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          Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Douglas,

          That’s mean. LOL.

          In spite of the mistakes, I’m sticking with MacKay come hell or high water. Peter is the party’s cofounder and that above all else is why I feel he’s already earned his turn. I hope members think long and hard about that. Peter’s leadership dues were paid in full in 2003.


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            Douglas W says:

            Ronald,
            Your commentary is always thoughtful, and I constantly search out your latest offerings.

            But 2003 means squat.

            I don’t see MacKay making any headway in Quebec. (You reside there. You’d know better.)

            I live close to the GTA.
            I can’t see Pete having much traction there.
            Game changer might be if he chooses to run in a riding in the 416/905, rather than in Nova Scotia.

            If he wins the leadership, it’ll be interesting to see where he decides to run in the next federal election. (Betting it’s Central Nova.)

            Stay well. Passing along my condolences.


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            Ronald O'Dowd says:

            Thanks, Douglas.

            Frankly, I think your suggestion that he run in the GTA is one fine piece of political strategy. I would prefer a seat in 416 IF it’s reasonably winable.

            Breaking the Liberal lock on 416 would give their campaign fits, to say the very least.

            After all, it takes zero guts to run in Central Nova or any other NS riding. Peter needs to show he has balls and is willing to take a calculated risk.


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    Brad says:

    Have a look at what Rona Ambrose is up to


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      Fred from BC says:

      “Have a look at what Rona Ambrose is up to”

      Working for an e-cigarette company, isn’t she?


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    Steve Maudsley says:

    Alberta has diversified its economy. Compared with 30 years ago, there is far less dependence on the oil industry. The problem is that the oil industry pays extremely well (it is typical for many jobs to pay over $100,000). Governments get addicted to tax money it generates (that includes the Federal government despite its hatred of the oil industry). Many of these other industries do not pay comparable amounts. Also, Alberta spends the most per capita on government services and, often, I do not believe that we get value for our money. Our health care wait times are terrible even though we spend the highest amounts in Canada.

    Prentice’s downfall was that he increased taxes and only made token cuts to government spending.


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      Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Thanks, Steve.

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