Musings —08.16.2020 09:26 AM
—Well, well
Federal Polling:
CPC: 33% (-1)
LPC: 30% (-3)
NDP: 18% (+2)
GPC: 8% (+1)
BQ: 7% (-1)Campaign Research / August 13, 2020 / n=2013 / Online
(% change with 2019 Federal Election) pic.twitter.com/rhaMqyDApI
— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) August 16, 2020
The Brass Rail is the only organization with the expertise and staff to run Canada’s $900 billion contact tracing operation.
A promising trend for sure. Now, provided the next CPC leader is not hopelessly tone deaf, there is a good chance this polling trend will continue. Looks like the Bloc is ready to go and the Conservatives will be if polls hold. Might NDP prop up the liberals? They could squeeze out liberals if they shift, just a little, towards the political centre – which is where Singh naturally belongs.
The NDP is broke. They will gladly prop up the Liberals and it will take surprisingly little to buy their support. Which will come back to haunt them when the next election does finally come. Whatever support they had left in the West and Quebec will evaporate completely, and GTA voters will spurn them once again in favour of the Liberals. Singh will lose his own seat to the Conservatives in a 1993-style meltdown.
Fair enough. But, what are the costs of running an election in the C-19 world? Assume less travel and more ZOOM time – likely cheaper ways of getting ones message out. If, a big if granted, Canadians want a credible alternative, Singh can potentially adjust his message and provide a centre-left position, without spending a great deal of funds going so. And, I may be engaging in purely wishful thinking here.
Males 18-34 swinging their votes towards Conservative, while Females 18-34 moving towards NDP.
18-34 years olds only polling 31% for the LPC.
That was suppose to be Trudeau’s key demographic. That demographic is abandoning him.
The NDP has the potential to make noticeable gains at the Liberals’ expense. Of course, they will completely blow up that likely possibility if they prop up Trudeau on a confidence vote.
This serial BS bogus NDP argument about getting things out of the Liberals for Canadians always ends up the same way: with people not supporting the NDP and voting Liberal instead…it’s the classic clinical definition of political insanity at work.
Hello!
Not so sure about that… History would seem to tell us the opposite…. Jack Layton got miles and miles and miles of cred by playing footsie w. Paul Martin and even (GASP!) Stephen Harper. When votin’ season is upon us Joe and Jane Front Porch won’t care about who propped up who, but they might remember who got something out of the Government.
Yes but Singh is no Jack Layton
I think the NDP may have found a wedge. Day Care (NDP) vs Green spending (LPC).
Green spending is a rich person want, while daycare is an urban working poor issue.
There won’t be enough money for both pet projects. And it is an opportunity for the NDP to present a genuine wedge.
The Conservatives had better not overplay the WE card. The story is already becoming over-exposed in my opinion. There seems to be the attitude of “well, the contract was cancelled, WE isn’t getting any more of our tax dollars, let’s move on” among the general public. They should step back a bit and let the ethics investigation continue, and begin to draft an election platform that zeroes in on the taxpaying middle class.
Got link?
https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/17/liberals-sitting-pretty-despite-we-controversy-mainstreet-poll/
https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/17/liberals-sitting-pretty-despite-we-controversy-mainstreet-poll/
Somebody is off the track. God knows which pollster is.
But, but…. healthcare! And education! And abortion! And same-sex marriage! And something else random that we just made up! These are the Evil Tories who will destroy Canada!
Sorry, I’m preparing myself for the usual histrionics that the Libs and NDP roll out during campaigns. Sadly, it works on a lot of people who aren’t especially concerned with facts or hard thinking – they just love to go with stereotypes.
Hmmmmm. Mainstreet has them 12 points ahead of the Conservatives 41-29. I imagine the truth is somewhere between these two polls. Nevertheless they let WE blow their Covid lead alright.
Polling won’t mean shit till the CPC has a named leader and new finance minister is named and ethics commission comes down with something concrete
Phil,
Watch how much of a fight the Liberals put up going forward before the three parliamentary committees. That will be telling in the extreme as regards this PM’s unanticipated vacation schedule.