, 11.07.2020 03:59 PM

My election prognostications

I still think I’m going to get that last one right. Plan to work on the Georgia runoffs – as I did in the midterms and in 2020 – to help make it happen.

But feeling so emotional and so happy, today. So grateful.

3 Comments

  1. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    I hope one day they make you an honorary citizen because you sure as hell deserve it.

    Some of my friendships are right at the breaking point because they absolutely refused to just get it, when all the evidence was before their very eyes for the last four long and incredibly painful years. I was quite literally going stir crazy at the prospect of that bastard getting in again. Finally, now I can breathe more easily.

  2. Miles Lunn says:

    Not bad, I thought you were being a bit too pessimistic, but looks like pretty close. I think final tally will be 306-232 as I am confident Biden wins Georgia, but reality is if Trump carried everything Biden by less than 1% he would be re-elected, that is how close. Only Michigan and Nebraska 2nd did Biden win by more than that although possible in Pennsylvania it may exceed that depending on the few remaining ballots. But Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona will all be under that (Actually if Biden fell short in those, we would have a tie of 269-269).

    Mine was a bit more bullish but wasn’t crazy like some. It looks like in end I got only 3 states wrong. I thought Trump would hold Georgia so glad to be wrong there, but thought Biden would pick up North Carolina which unless a lot of late absentee ballots arrive in next week don’t see that happening. Missed Florida, but it seems Biden’s troubles with the Cuban-American community was bigger than I thought. Trump campaign really played off fear of socialism with that community and it worked.

    I never bought Texas was in play. It will turn blue eventually but not there yet. Ohio and Iowa I was surprised by Trump’s margin, but not surprised he won both. By same token of the three Blue wall states, I was surprised at how close all three were. Biden won them, but not as decisive as most pollsters suggested.

    • Miles Lunn says:

      Other surprise was not that Biden won Arizona but reason. I like most assumed it would be due to growing Hispanic population who Trump is a racist against, but if exit polls are right (which is a big if) it appears it was big swing amongst whites that flipped state as Trump barely won whites in a state which GOP usually wins by 20 points amongst whites. My guess is if Trump kept his flap shut about McCain, he would have held state as people love McCain there and his belittling him showed what an asshole and vile person he was.

      For Georgia, I think Stacey Abrams deserves all credit for winning that state. She must have lost governorship but she put in place the ground organization to make state competitive. Big reason Biden won Georgia but not Florida is Georgia Democrats have a well oiled machine while Florida democrats are in chaos.

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