, 09.17.2021 08:50 AM

The world-famous Daisy election poll is out!

60 Comments

  1. Douglas W says:

    146 seats for the Libs, I think that’s spot on.
    I can’t see them losing more than 11 seats.

    People are voting for the brand, not the dude.

    Diving a little deeper: Justin Trudeau, 144 seats or more, and he’ll be around for a while.
    He’s not going to let anyone push him out the door.
    He loves the job title.
    He’ll want to fight another election, until he loses big.

    However, anything less than 140 seats, and there’ll be a leadership convention within 18 months.

    Anything less than 130 seats, and he’ll be a no show in the House of Commons.

  2. A. Voter says:

    There are so many wild cards. Leger said the leader of the BQ had the biggest approval jump after the debates, which would be in Quebec. The same poll had Trudeau with the biggest approval drop. The Quebec chattering classes are livid over the debate. Today Ipsos reported that Canadians angry over the pandemic election call has risen to 69 percent. The same poll said 50 percent of Canadians don’t like any of the options. The NDP is holding and has money this time. Then there is the Jason Kenney wild card. And the PPC. It’s going to be interesting, but the Liberals will likely lead in seats if not get a bare majority.

  3. Pedant says:

    I presume this is where your readers can offer their predictions?

    LIB 167
    CPC 108
    NDP 31
    BQ 31
    GRN 1

    I can easily see the Liberals getting over the 170 barrier to majority if they have a good final weekend. That would be catastrophic for national unity and middle class economic security, but I have to go with my gut and my reading of the polling and sentiment.

    Don’t you think Premier Kenney’s “September surprise” will have a more negative impact on the CPC?

    And it appears you’re predicting Elizabeth May will lose her seat! That’s surprising to me.

    • Mark says:

      I live next to Elizabeth May’s riding and she has plenty of signs on private property, as she did last time. It would be a monumental defeat for the Green movement in this country, and maybe its final gasp, if she were to lose her seat.

      • Lawrence Barry says:

        No “ party status” for Greens after this self inflicted immolation . Zero seats.

        • Phil in London says:

          No party status because there is no fucking party, there never was and never will be. Environment is an important issue but this group does nothing that parties can’t on that file. In fact political parties DO act on environmental issues.

          Elizabeth May is the liberal party’s favourite distraction and she has offered them additional strength by taking electors away from talking about OTHER issues that justin trudeau is also failing on.

        • Phil in London says:

          There has never been a Green Party. This is a one person band that regularly gets less vote than polling suggests and who is allowed to spew because the liberals know that she will jump on any bandwagon to denigrate conservatives.
          Her disrespect for Harper, calling him a liar in debates will always stick with me as being offensive. The greens have at least two parties that could welcome most members and they could have a say in government they don’t want that, they want to protest and be angry.
          One seat for them is not as offensive as one seat for Bernier but the truth is neither is a political party they are extreme protest fringes, one lies the other has no problem with violence. Neither is a virtue.

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:

            Phil,

            Have you ever met a single politician who wasn’t a liar: that designation has two components, outright falsehoods and not answering in any way the specific question that was posed to them. In short, they all more than willingly do the second part making them all liars in my book. That was clearly evident in this campaign and no surprise to anyone.

          • The Doctor says:

            Most of our media class loves the Greens and that’s why they get way more coverage than their actual seats or support merit. And most coverage is media nose between Green Party butt cheeks.

  4. Peter Williams says:

    Great planning by the Trudeau Liberals: Toronto Centre riding goes from 91 polling stations in 2019 to 15 polling stations in 2021.

    https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6169830?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar&

    Typical Trudeau planning.

    I’m still processing how this might affect voting.

  5. Murphy's Raw says:

    I seem to align most closely with The Lax Dude, though not far from our gracious host.

    LIB 148
    CPC 124
    NDP 33
    BQ 32
    GRN 1

    Not the result I hope for, but what I think we’ll get.

    And per P Williams’ comment, I think we will see a lot of frustration at the polling stations on Monday due to fewer stations and slower processes. Please do not take it out on the good people trying to help you vote; most of them probably share the frustration.

  6. RKJ says:

    Let’s hope Myriam is correct… though too much to hope, I fear.

  7. Robert White says:

    Robert ‘the Grumpy Marxist’

    Libs = 142
    Cons = 130
    NDP = 36
    Charlie Brown’s Blockheads = 27
    Green P = 1
    Mentally ill ‘Peoples Party of Crazed & Atrophied Lunatic fringe whackjobs’ = 2

    RW

    • Robert,

      Warren’s NEVER was pretty categorical but I like you do not say that it’s impossible. I hope to hell that our host is right but I’ve got a bad feeling that it could happen. God help us if it does.

  8. Steve T says:

    As much as I like Myriam’s prediction for the CPC, her prognostication becomes questionable when there are three PPC seats showing. I assume she predicts those will come in the prairies, and probably Alberta, but I’d be interesting to know which specific ridings she feels PPC will win.
    I’ve not heard of any that are leaning PPC, but it’s entirely possible I’m just missing a bigger picture.

  9. Phil in London says:

    I truly believe
    1)pollsters are being lied to by those being polled.
    2)Quebec is angry
    3)no one wants anyone to have a majority

    liberals 132
    CPC 127
    NDP 42
    Bloc 35
    Green 1
    Nazi hate group 1

    • Peter Williams says:

      I’ve lied to three pollsters.

      • Lawrence Barry says:

        I’m an 18 -24 year old female that lives on Vancouver Island!

        • Robert White says:

          I use my house telephone line for 56k Dialup Modem and Internet connectivity to my not-for-profit ISP FreeNet. Pollsters get a busy signal when they phone my line.

          This also avoids all the telemarketing so that my brain can focus without answering a telephone.

          RW

  10. Warren,

    I don’t know where this is going anymore after all the mistakes I’ve seen this week. This week has been so disappointing and has raised my ire considerably so there’s no way in hell that I’m going to make a prediction one way or the other. In short, I’ve had it.

    • PJH says:

      Well it’s a lot less disappointing than Mr. Scheer’s efforts, I will say that, but your prediction of a “Blue Wave” sadly will not come to pass…..

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        PJH,

        The CPC campaign was practically flawless up until this week. So, my prediction is worth diddly.

        • PJH says:

          But you had to know the Lib brain trust would come up with a September surprise or two….or one of our own would throw a spanner in the works(and indeed has)…..sadly, it has been ever thus…..Be happy it appears its not going to be a repeat of 1974(at least at this point in time)…..

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:

            PJH,

            It burns my ass how it’s a common presumption that our party is simply incapable of evolving, of learning from past mistakes, of drawing something positive from Harper’s mistakes, and there were plenty of those. We’re not a political dozo and yet time and again we pull some kind of strategic bonehead play — this vaccination thing might flush us down the damned dumper. FFS, it was foreseeable, preventable and at worst, reparable if necessary. But the leader has blown us right out of the water seemingly without any credible intention to rapidly administer at least first aid…unforgivable.

          • Phil in London says:

            Ronald, if you are thinking the last week of the campaign is the reason Conservatives do not seize power, and you are representative of the CPC than the view your party is incapable of evolving is accurate from the core out.

            I say your party because I last worked for a conservative campaign in 2011 and have not donated to the party in that time. That in no way means I don’t believe the CPC is the best choice to vote.

            I have voted for both major parties and have held membership in both. So I feel qualified to offer some suggestions to the CPC

            1) For Christ sake, QUIT SKINNING YOU LEADER ALIVE after the election. I don’t believe Scheer was all that great but when your party demands his ouster after not winning last time – He after all won the popular vote and improved seat count and reduced his opponent to a minority mandate.

            There was a fellow named Harper that got a second chance and I could argue he had a lot less appeal to the rest of Canada (excluding the west) than O’Toole shows.

            When your leader makes gains and weakens his opponent you just don’t remove him or her and commit to a long drawn out leadership vote (voluntarily held during a pandemic I might add).

            If there is another liberal minority you have every reason to expect to loose the election in 2022-23 if you get the knives out for O’Toole and that ship is already taking on cargo, you are fucked again.

            This is my number one reason for not working for a CPC campaign nor funding it. Your party needs to prove to me that they can stop taking their legal long gun out of the safe and aiming it at their feet.

            2) The CPC needs to occupy the middle and understand that Canada is not overly conservative but they are also not overly liberal. They vote for the liberals because the extremes like Bernier are welcomed into the Tory fold till they draw too much fire.

            Stop attacking stupid liberal discretions (serious discretions) in a bid to score points. Spend a ton of time scrubbing your own candidates you had two fucking years to select candidates for an election you know was coming but you choose preventative open heart surgery when no chest pain was present.

            If you truly want to become the governing party act like one and kick out any more Bernier and Sloan types next week.

            3) Quit thinking you lost before the vote is counted. It may be true but you have to think about what you have won, not lost. If you are in government next week fantastic but if you are not it would be great if you can build on being the only true alternative and show some willingness to play well with others in the next minority. It may even be a good idea to vote with the government once in a while should they ever see a need to reward the centre.

            Build on the fact you have seats in every province or region and work to broaden the tent.

            Conservatism is a wonderful thing if it is a guide instead of the sacred core of your party.

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:

            Phil,

            Thanks for your comment. First off, we’ll deal with the distraction who happens to be myself: like you, I’ve been a member of several political parties, Conservative, Liberal and then back to Conservatives. My choice was always based on my vision of Canada and the best policies I thought would serve her. My choice was also based on the leader’s performance while in office. That doesn’t make my vision the right vision for Canada, only one of many competing visions. I’ve voted CPC, LPC and BQ. The last option was to oust an unacceptable MP, who by coincidence the party was more than happy to get rid of.

            Phil, you have me perplexed: why do you say that the CPC wants, or even an insignificant party member wants to seize power? No one in this party is for that. We’re all about getting a clear political mandate from the voters across 338 ridings.

            Now to your points:

            1) I agree with this having evolved from being part of the Jamieson cabal who enthusiastically tried to give Harper the heave-ho in 2005. My personal view then was that Harper from the moment he became Alliance leader was not a temperamentally suited person for the office of prime minister. I also largely disagreed with his vision, which was excessively to the right, IMHO. Therefore, IF we lose this election, I will not be among those calling on O’Toole to resign. He will have to take stock of the outcome and decide which way he wants to go, stay or leave. And the party should support that.

            This point amuses me to some extent when I think of the Liberals: who was it that tried to undermine Trudeau; who was it that tried to undermine Turner; who was it that tried to undermine Chrétien? Need I go on?

            2) I pass this test. I’m a Red Tory and will die same. In other words, moderate and centrist. I’m not against social conservatives being part of the party. But IMHO, they must recognize that in 2021 that the party must stick to the centrist lane (mushy middle) or condemn itself in future to not being thoroughly competitive in elections. As you’ve said, it ain’t rocket science is it.

            2) Warren has written considerably on this: all the parties, not just mine insufficiently vet their candidates and yes, our party must seriously address that along with the other parties. There is marked room for improvement.

            3) Do I think we’ll win on Monday? The honest answer is I doubt it. Do I think we’ll lose, could be. But I’m not saying it’s definite, or a lead-pipe cinch, either way. Point is, the leader is dead wrong on the way he approached vaccination of our candidates and IMHO, we will pay the political price for that on Monday, at least to some extent. Only God knows to what extent.

            Personally, I’ve never been of the view that the opposition party has to reflexively oppose everything that the government puts on the agenda. So, I agree with you there. Others far more qualified than yours truly can enumerate when we voted with one of the incarnations of this Trudeau-led government. My recollection is that it wasn’t just once. In the past, we were great at broadening the tent: that’s why our name previously was Progressive Conservative. My disagreement with O’Toole on vaccine strategy aside, Erin is clearly from this cloth and has shown that to be the case in this campaign. A CPC government would be centrist and any MP who’s not happy to work with that template should be expelled from caucus, period.

        • Lawrence Barry says:

          Ronald – totally agree – and unfortunately my vote is worthless now after moving to a strong PC / rural B.C. riding from N Vancouver

    • Robert White says:

      Oh come on, Ronald. Give it one for the Gipper, eh.

      This is the FUN part of the election. You are required to be a good sport here.

      Now cough up, eh?

      RW

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Robert,

        I’ll be a good sport and willingly accept the result no matter what it is. But I’m pissed at the way the campaign has handled issues this week and played right into Liberal hands. The Liberals ads are doing more than a little damage, with no time left to reverse that damage.

  11. Polling: same as the previous day.

    Mainstreet: Conservatives +2

    Nanos: Liberals +2

  12. J.Ph. Brunet says:

    Yet to hear anyone use the term “shy voter.” They’re out there, pollsters. Combo with angry voters a-plenty, plus behind-the-curtain “not this time” polling booth sudden conversions, and 110 Libs starts to look a lot less non compos mentis.

  13. PJH says:

    “The Prince o’ Niceness”?…I’m sure JT’s jugular thinks otherwise..:)….I am happy to see all the prognostications deny M. Trudeau his much sought majority. Sept 20th will be a moral victory for the Canadian electorate.

  14. The Doctor says:

    Lots of interesting posts here. Who knows. I’m terrible at predictions, but if I had to put money on it, I would say that JT will still be PM when the dust settles. I just don’t think O’Toole and his advisors ever settled on and drove a message that really resonated with voters. He’s a better politician than Scheer, which isn’t saying much, but strategically I can’t figure out what he and his team’s theory of this campaign is. Their approach strikes me as too scattershot and reactive. Of course if he wins then they are all geniuses.

    • Pedant says:

      His appeal to the working class is a good strategy, and clearly echoes Boris Johnson’s 2019 campaign in the UK. The Conservatives should stick with that. They over-educated gender studies crowd want nothing to do with them. Win over the plumbers, construction workers, and other trades people and their families. They will form the new winning Conservative base.

      • PJH says:

        Well said Pedant!,,,,,,Gauche Caviar, Chardonnay Socialists, Bollinger Bolshies, talk a good line but they dont like to get too close to folks like me for fear o’ the smell…..

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Doc,

      Bringing it down to brass tacks: the leader should have answered any and all questions on AB and Kenney. Plus the CPC non-decision on vaccinated candidates was at best, off the mark from the get-go. Simply mind boggling. I’m not saying it’s a definite loss for us. I’m saying it’s no longer an almost definite win for us thanks to this bungled strategy.

  15. Jason says:

    I’m absolutely furious with some of the mistakes the Conservative team has made in the last couple weeks. It may or may not amount to much, but O’Toole must – MUST – get it through his head that talking out both sides of his mouth on pandemic issues is a bad idea, and accept that 80+% of Canadians are pro-vaccine, pro-public health.

    One thing that will be interesting to see – in 2019, there were 4 ridings that had a sizeable amount of PPC support in the polls leading up to election day. By the end, the support had almost completely collapsed in favour of the Conservatives. I highly doubt that will again happen nationwide, but I suspect we will see some of that. Will it be enough, I kind of doubt. These are almost universally single-issue voters desperate to pretend Covid isn’t real, and nobody else is giving them a platform.

    Ultimately I see very little change happening…. but there is a stronger than normal chance we are surprised one way or another on Monday night.

    Lib 143
    Con 134
    NDP 38
    Bloc 22
    Green 1

    • The Doctor says:

      I’m Tory sympathetic, but O’Toole was absolutely horrible in a presser I watched yesterday. He just gave totally evasive, gobbledygook answers to two very good questions from reporters. Basically he barfed out the talking points that he wanted to barf out rather than answering the questions he was asked. It came across as phony and insincere, which it was. Earth to idiots who are apparently running the Tory campaign: JT is supposed to be the phony, insincere person I’m this movie. Don’t be like him. FFS

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Bingo!

        • Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Now to address the non-vaccinated candidates issue: the leader needs to say this publicly and FAST: if you are elected in your riding as a CPC MP, you will be immediately prevented from joining or kicked out of caucus if you do not sign a pledge to be doubly vaccinated within 60 days. Period. Of course, one Liberal candidate or MP has a medical exemption and I certainly support that for all MPs who happen to be in the same or similar health situation as that particular candidate.

      • Vancouverois says:

        No worse than how Trudeau has answered questions for the past six years. However, O’Toole isn’t going to be given a pass on it the way Trudeau has been.

        • Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Vancouverois,

          Exactly. But like I said further above, they are all the same, regardless of party, in the disingenuous manner that they approach questions. Parties lose more potential support because of this than anything else. People hear them and say they are all lying opportunists who couldn’t answer a question straightforwardly if God was standing next to each one of them. It kills any and all potential political orgasms in a citizen or voter, each and every time.

        • The Doctor says:

          If O’Toole is going to behave just like the Other Guy, then in the minds of most moveable swing voters, why should you vote for him? Call me crazy, but isn’t the objective to not be like the other guy and be, you know, better?

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:

            Doc,

            We’re the Conservative Party, even in a right-of-centre incarnation that is moderately positioned. That IMHO already reveals some daylight between us and the Liberals. O’Toole couldn’t possibly be a future incarnation of the other guy. None of the other political leaders has Himself’s particular talents at mismanaging files and falling short both of promises and objectives already set by government. So, in a different way, I hope I’ve answered your question sufficiently. That, in a nutshell, is why I voted CPC.

  16. I’m a gutless cunt. My IP address is 76.68.64.135. Find me.

  17. Douglas W says:

    For fun — from the department of “I didn’t see this one coming”:
    Conservatives …. 148
    Liberals …. 121
    NDP…. 43
    Bloc …. 25
    Green Lizzie …. 1
    PPC …. 0

  18. Gilbert says:

    My numbers in the last election were really wrong, but I’ll give a prediction:

    CP 136
    Liberal 133
    Bloc 39
    NDP 29
    Green 1

  19. Full Retired Rambo says:

    The polling science has been settled

  20. Gord says:

    My totally wild-assed guess:

    LPC 137
    CPC 134
    NDP 35
    BQ 31
    GRN 1
    PPC 0

    A dog’s breakfast, although I suspect LPC + NDP > 170, albeit barely. If Singh and Co. wanted to be really machiavellian, they might insist that the price of their support is a new LPC leader – i.e. they will not support a government led by Justin. That would really put the cat among the pigeons.

    Either way, I see new leaders for the LPC and CPC, and another election, inside 18 months.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Gord,

      Or you could do it this way, likely with more long-term political consequences for the Liberals: insist on cabinet seats for NDP support and pray to God that it doesn’t go the way of the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems)…LOL. (Which brings us back to Doc’s point.)

  21. Sean says:

    I predict at least 7/8 of the Daisy Staff will be dead wrong!

  22. A. Voter says:

    I think the Liberals could pull off a surprise majority, but hope not. My guesses:
    Atlantic L 29 C 3
    Quebec L33 C 10 BQ 34 N 1
    Ontario L 80 C 34 N 6 G 1
    Manitoba L 6 C 5 N 3
    Sask C 12 N 2
    Alberta L 4 C 28 N 2
    BC L 6 C 21 N 13 G 2
    North L 2 N 1

    Lib 160 Con 113 BQ 34 NDP 28 Grn 3.
    I count the dropped candidate in Toronto as a Liberal win, but he won’t sit with the party.

  23. Wayne says:

    120 Liberal
    140 Conservative
    28 Bloc
    50 NDP
    0 Other (PPC, Green, Independent, etc)
    Even though the Conservatives win the plurality of seats, The Liberals and NDP will for a coalition to retain/get power and screw over and part of the Country that didn’t vote for them.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


*