02.11.2022 12:19 PM

The CPC’s really bad morning

45 Comments


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    Gyor says:

    In a few Months it’s Doug Ford who will be irrelevant.


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    PJH says:

    M. Poilievre has chosen his hill for his aspirations to become PM to die on, it would seem….

    You can take a Refoormer out of Alberta, but you can’t take the Albertan out of a Refoormer….


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      PJH says:

      An addendum…there are many good folks who hail from Alberta, my own late parents and grandparents included….and of course the provider of this august forum….but there is an element from the province I’m not particularly fond of…..


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      Miles Lunn says:

      Despite stereotype, Alberta is not full of right wing hicks. Lots of progressives and in fact Notley has a 15 point lead in polls. Likewise most Tories there, particularly in cities quite moderate. Peter Lougheed who was very much a Red Tory is often regarded as best premier Alberta ever had. Klein was somewhat of a populist and mocked by establishment, but more akin to Doug Ford than Reform party. Kenney is first right wing ideologue since Harry Strom and its why despite province usually blindly going Conservative is having second thoughts.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    This message is in no way for you but only for others who happen to be extremely stupid politicians or inept ones. [Fill in the blanks.]:

    THROW THOSE FUCKERS IN JAIL AND DO IT NOW!


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      Sean says:

      +1,000

      …and thanks for using the precise diplomatic language this situation deserves.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    So Pierre, you’re proud of them? Funny, how you and everyone else in this party sang a different rule of law tune when it came to SNC and JWR? Remember that, or are you suffering from a terminal case of selective memory? By the by and for the record, he’s certainly not my leadership candidate…


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      PJH says:

      Nor Mine….Poilievre’s hitching his electoral wagon to the mobs will, as a dear coworker used to say, “Keep ’em outta the bigtime”…..I suspect PMac will sit this one out, but I am hoping and encouraging Michael Chong to toss his hat into the ring…..he checks all the boxes for me…..He is….the anti -Poilievre…..and the Conservative Party of Canada desperately needs that now…..unless one is a Liberal….who would no doubt be crossing fingers and toes in hopes that M. Poilievre is annointed leader of the CPC….


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        Mark D says:

        PJH, since you have some knowledge of these things, I am hearing suggestions of a “Draft Ford” movement from some folks who are longtime tories. Possible legs or just a reaction to yesterday’s news?

        I confess that I am so far out of the loop politically that I am no longer sure what might have substance and what is nothing more than political rumour.


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          PJH says:

          You are too kind Sir…..I’ve haven’t heard anything myself, but I would have no problem supporting Mr Ford if he was willing to prevent a coronation of Pierre Poilievre…..PP is insufferable at the best of times…could you imagine if he was annointed?…..ugh!…..Mr. Ford could probably garner more votes in Central Canada where we need the seats….and currently it doesnt seem like they are hanging him in effigy at Queens Park…so why not?….


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          Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Mark,

          I’m for MacKay but if Peter declines, I will support quite literally anyone who has the balls and chutzpah to SERIOUSLY take on those truckers. If that means drafting Ford, who so far is a public No, then I’m likely to give it incredibly serious consideration. I want them back home yesterday and if not, in jail. The rule of law must always prevail, period.


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        Ronald O'Dowd says:

        PJH,

        Well, the big problem all centrists and moderates in the party have is somehow getting past the goal posts of the membership — and they are pretty much right-of-centre and locked and loaded to be a bridge too far for moderates in the party, not to mention progressives. So, all those who are pushing for Johnny in QC are in for a surprise should he announce on Monday. My bet: no-way José, since the SCOC previously didn’t agree to clear the decks for his “brother”…the Liberal election ads practically write themselves.


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        Ronald O'Dowd says:

        PJH,

        I imagine it’s fair to say that Peter is waiting to see what Johnny does before he decides on a run or no run.


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          PJH says:

          Indeed…they’d be chasing after the same dollars and volunteers…..from what I understand, until PMac’s debt is cleared, any talk of another run is moot…..but depending on covid, the current situation with the mob, etc….that could be many months away….I heard August as a possible time….If PMac can get out on the rubber chicken circuit and press the flesh(unlike last time)….he might have a chance….but pray he’s improved his French….


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            Ronald O'Dowd says:

            PJH,

            My advice to Peter given quite a long time ago was to communicate daily at home in French for at least a couple of hours since his wife is bilingual (French) and even trilingual (Farsi). If he did that every day with his spouse correcting his French along the way when necessary, he would at least reach O’Toole’s level of proficiency. Got to say that I admired Erin for that level of commitment.


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    The Doctor says:

    Polievre is behaving like a US Republican politician preparing for a primary — tacking to the right, because there are internal party member votes to be had by doing that.

    Problem is, if he does become CPC leader, he’s further marginalized the party in terms of being able to appeal to the more moderate voters who actually decide federal elections. Short term gain, long term pain IMO.

    On the other hand, maybe all PP aspires to be is permanent opposition leader.


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      Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Doc,

      The collective stupidity in my party is mind boggling. Either we’re the PPC-lite, or we’re a big-tent centre-right party. We fucking can’t be both. I want to win the next election against that poor excuse of a prime minister. The truckers’ supporters, not so much. They are prepared to blow the next election even before we get there. So…why in hell did we bother to ditch O’Toole if Poilièvre and his ilk are simply bent on sailing HMCS Team Conservative right up onto the rocks? All these dopes will end up doing is indirectly re-electing that smug little bastard. Thanks a lot for being fools.


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        Miles Lunn says:

        A lot in base are delusional and don’t get Canada. They assume success in US can be replicated here. Yes right wing populism has a sizeable minority, but not nearly enough to win. More importantly many don’t understand Canada.

        Canada is a very urbanized country, 50% live in the 10 largest metro areas. We are most educated country on earth. We are very diverse with over 40% having at least one foreign born parent.

        These are not the demographics that right wing populism does well amongst. Centre-right can with right leader, campaign, and a bit of luck. But hard right no. US states that fit those demographics are solid blue ones. Most red are a lot more rural, percentage with college degree way lower and they are either fairly white are if diverse, in Deep South which has a very ugly history on racism and voting is still very racially polarized.

        Europe despite its much higher density is generally less urban and even those that are as urban, a lot more live in smaller cities which tend to be more favourable to right as opposed to large metro areas. UK falls under latter, just as urbanized as Canada but far more in smaller cities as opposed to major metro areas. None have anywhere near our right with post secondary degree and despite some cities like London, Paris, Amsterdam, Berlin, Malmo, etc, being diverse, overall they are much less diverse than we are.

        So point is Canada is about the worst country in West for right wing populism. Doesn’t mean they don’t exist, they do but nowhere near a winning coalition.


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          The Doctor says:

          Excellent post, Miles.


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    BillBC says:

    I rather liked his plain speaking…not enough of that in Ottawa…but I didn’t realize that he’s a nutter. Please please don’t elect him Cons leader…


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    the salamander says:

    .. It may appear that in a manner of speaking
    Pierre Poilievre prematurely ‘blew his wad’
    Ms Bergen tells ‘truckers’ to ‘come together’
    but ‘go home’ ? A sort of tantric code for ?

    The current walking back’ seems pitiful as trying
    to squeeze Pierre’s brylcreem back into the tube


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    Ted says:

    Did Doug Ford toughen up Justin Trudeau? or was it Uncle Joe Biden?

    “Justin, I’m really hopeful we don’t have to engage American resources here” or something along those lines.

    Anyway so what who it was? JT is in over his head, as if we didn’t already know that. And Pierre Poilievre in the wings. Resume? Life long political animal. He doesn’t even have snow board instructor or drama teacher on his resume and it shows.

    Doug Ford for Prime Minister? Holy shit I never thought I’d even think about that.


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      PJH says:

      Always had respect for Mr. Ford…….anyone who –personally would take PPE equipment around to hospitals that needed it during the early days of the pandemic is worthy of my respect, and my vote….that he has taken a strong principled stand against the mob only makes me respect him more.


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        Darwin O'Connor says:

        What if he sat in his office and personally harnessed the massive resourses of the Ontario government to ensure every hospital had the PPE equipment it needed, like he is supposed to?


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    Robert White says:

    Poilievre is appropriating CPP base whilst not alienating opposition to Trudeau who is now despised coast-to-coast-to-coast. A hard right turn makes sense if one wants to appropriate base and increase odds of membership.

    Poilievre is selling membership in his tent that now houses Trudeau’s opposition. He will tone down the rhetoric on the right when the trend is no longer his friend as they say in day trading on Wall Street.

    The only party to prosper from this truckers’ debacle is CPC.

    Trudeau is out and lame duck now. Freeland is opposition shadow finance relative to Poilievre in so far as Poilievre is governance in waiting and Freeland is wearing Trudeau’s legacy as a sellout to the Liberal ethos of democracy which is dead & defunct like Maynard Keynes & Keynesian Macroeconomics.

    RW


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      PJH says:

      You forget that just as many Canadians despise the lawlessness of the mob aka “Freedom Convoy” as they do the lack of leadership that has been shown by M. Trudeau throughout this crisis. M. Poilievre will most likely win the leadership…..but to win over the 80-90% of Canadians who have no political affiliation whatsoever, is another kettle o’ fish entirely…..He is ballot box poison, imho……


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        Ronald O'Dowd says:

        PJH,

        Maybe a new variant with high morbidity will never “emerge” and maybe it will. Anyway, if there’s no spike — and I’m certainly not betting on it — then good, transition back to near-normal as quickly as is humanly possible.

        But for those of us who see TOP SECRET – US EYES ONLY in the mix, the future is not exactly reassuring.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    The party has a choice: pick a PPC-lite leader in the mould of Poilièvre and likely other candidates, or pick a declared centrist. P is but a re-run of O’Toole: running as a right-winger (genuinely this time) and then TRYING to pivot to the center in the general. And that won’t wash because P is exactly who he is and that means no CPC government on election day. Sorry Pierre, but you’ve already proudly shown your true colours and both of us know that ON, QC and the AP will run, not walk, in any other direction just to keep you out of the prime minister’s chair. That’s called political R-E-A-L-I-T-Y. Nice try, though.


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    Derek Pearce says:

    At this point I just hate every political party. But I am DYING to see the election ads the Liberals will run against Poilievre with his image cross-cut with truckers and how he supports them.


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    PJH says:

    Looks like its going to be a horse race…..with perhaps 10 Quebec MP’s on his side, Jean Charest is seriously considering a bid to run for leadership of the CPC….much to Pierre Poilievre, his supporters, and the mobs chagrin, no doubt…..https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/jean-charest-is-very-interested-in-running-for-cpc-leader-will-reflect-over-the-weekend/ar-AATLnWC?ocid=msedgntp


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      Ronald O'Dowd says:

      PJH,

      Charest won’t waste his time. All he has to do is resist the ego-appeals. Johnny already knows this is no PCPC and the deck is already stacked against him, especially since he never served in any capacity in a previous CPC government. That right there puts him in write off category, not to mention the fact that he’s a dyed-in-the-wool Red Tory, like yours truly.


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        PJH says:

        I will concur…but his throwing his hat in the ring would, you have to admit, take a wee bit of the shine off a Pierre Poilievre coronation.

        I wonder who will be our champion against this man who singlehandedly will destroy our party?….


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          Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Good thing no one reads The Montreal Gazette…


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    whyshouldIsellyourwheat says:

    Just wait till persistent secular inflation, not seen since the seventies, crushes working and middle class Canadians.

    Freeland will be presiding over that.

    Two-time Central Banker ex-Goldman Sachs Carney…I don’t believe Canadians would ever vote that way.

    The Conservative Party is now an anti-establishment party. The establishment cannot put an establishment type like MacKay or Ford or Kheriiden or Charest on top of it and have it work.

    Good luck, Canada.

    Where have you gone Stephen Harper, and your island of stability?


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      Ronald O'Dowd says:

      WSISYW,

      I’ll tell you where he is, blissfully working for the cash while the party he co-founded with MacKay quite literally moves to destroy its relevance as a credible political alternative to the Liberals. The party has lost its way and now is headed to at best, second place status in the next election. Only Bergen and her likely successor can change their own personal mentality. Otherwise, it’s toast for us. Period.


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        whyshouldIsellyourwheat says:

        Inflation is the next phase of the alienation of the centre from the Laurentian establishment and Trudeau.

        Trudeau’s answer to every problem is just to spend more money. But with inflation, spending more money just makes inflation worse. It becomes a positive feedback loop. There is no painless escape from inflation.

        The wealthy have assets. They don’t suffer from inflation. The poor and the old will be taken care of by spending more money. The middle class and the working class and small business will be crushed because they don’t have a lot of assets and income won’t keep up with inflation.

        Trudeau formenting division since he became Liberal leader is going to have worse and worse consequences.

        Inflation is a problem that more money does not solve. Inflation makes it a new political game.


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          Ronald O'Dowd says:

          WSISYW,

          The Bank of Canada was among the first central banks to begin tapering. Here’s DG Paul Beaudry last December:

          […] “And our bond purchases have recently been recalibrated. We have adjusted our QE program to focus its impact on longer-term interest rates that matter for Canadians. We are buying fewer bonds at shorter maturities and more at longer maturities, where the benefit for Canadian households and business is greater. For example, when we buy more five-year bonds, this lowers the five-year lending rates on loans for households and businesses.

          Since this recalibration will increase the impact of each dollar spent in our QE program, we recently reduced our minimum weekly purchases from $5 billion to $4 billion. All of this allows us to be more efficient with our balance sheet, while continuing to provide at least as much monetary stimulus.”

          Governments are generally clueless when it comes to addressing economic chaos so they foolishly defer to central bankers. Digit money printing inevitably leads to a gradual increase and eventual surge in inflation. Central bankers knew that perfectly well going in. But contrary to 2008, QE5 has helped to sink businesses and cause individual household economic misery. Continued QE, followed by interest rate hikes will inevitably throw the Canadian economy into a recession and then finally, down the markets will go. The Volcker pain is coming and it will doom a number of incumbent governments across the globe.


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            whyshouldIsellyourwheat says:

            The Bank of Canada has NOT begun tapering. It has stopped QE, but it is not shrinking it balance sheet yet.

            It is changing the composition of what it is buying as bonds mature to maintain a stable balance sheet. That is NOT tapering. It also has not raised interest rates to control the inflation it caused by monetizing $500 trillion of Trudeau’s pandemic spending.

            The Bank of Canada poured gas on the housing bubble when it began buying mortgage bonds in 2018 (to help goose the economy for Trudeau’s reelection in 2019). This had only been done previously for limited periods of times in the midst of serious economic crises. Look at when house prices went vertical, when the BOC began buying mortgage bonds.

            The trial run of MMT has re-ignited inflation, inflation that is not likely to be transitory without crashing the economy. We are likely facing a decade of stagflation. Good luck with the centre holding.


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            whyshouldIsellyourwheat says:

            That should be $500 billion, not trillion.


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          The Doctor says:

          Fair enough, although his father faced inflation that dwarfed what he have now and one two out of three elections (both majorities) while said inflation galloped out of control, in 1974 and 1980. And the one he lost in 1979 resulted in the pathetic 6-month Joe Clark minority government, which was immediately followed by 5 more years of Trudeau. So I’m not totally sure that inflation is the political career killer in Canada that you hope it is.

          On the other hand, it certainly helped squash Jimmy Carter in the US.


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    Gilbert says:

    Justin Trudeau can’t be very popular now. If he truly believes in his cause, he can explain it to the protesters and not run away from them. If there were an election tomorrow, the Liberals would lose seats.


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    RKJ says:

    This whole situation makes me sick. Doug Ford has done the dirty work for Justin. Now, whatever backroom agreements between them that were in place will likely be reneged on. Justin has been able to hide while the tough work was being done. He can now play tough. And yet, the nerve exposed by the cross border transporter vaccine requirement will not go away. Canada will not come together. This may politically suit the liberals.


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    Joseph says:

    What a startling revelation!

    Pierre Polivierre isn’t campaigning for the voters that have not and will never vote for a conservative.

    I’m shocked, shocked I tell you.


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      The Doctor says:

      Red Tories and Blue Liberals will vote for a conservative, under the right conditions. And the CPC can only win a federal election if a reasonable number of Red Tories and Blue Liberals (typically fiscal conservative social liberals) votes CPC.

      There’s no way the CPC is forming government if only the far and hard right vote for them.


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        Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Doc,

        Principle over power…frankly, one of the most stupid concepts in the CPC. Politics is only about winning and shaping the country. Too many Conservatives are entirely oblivious to that.

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