, 03.16.2022 04:33 PM

Sun Media hit: Lilley and me on the Civil War that is the Tory leadership race

That’s a snapshot of me reacting to the suggestion the Pierre Poilievre knows how to make friends and influence people!

22 Comments

  1. Douglas W says:

    The finish line is September, and Double P’s campaign will lose all momentum by June.

    Charest in a romp.

  2. Douglas,

    Given the composition of 70-85% of the membership and given Poilièvre’s lead, it’s his to lose IMHO and frankly, I really don’t see that happening.

    The other thing is, of course, the Johnny Come Lately aspect re: Charest’s membership. You can be damned sure it does not go back to 2003 or anytime close to that.

    Like I said before, where most of Harper’s cabinet goes, is where a plurality of the membership will follow and that’s likely in Pierre’s direction.

  3. Liber et Gloriosus says:

    Ugh! I don’t think any of these candidates will be able to win the leadership, unite the party and win a general election. Everyone has baggage to make them unpalatable to all the factions needed for victory.

    My only hope is that the Liberals turf Trudeau and replace him with a grown up.

  4. PJH says:

    Yes, it’s more than likely your average CPC member out West is going to support PP(sadly) but don’t forget that with the Conservative Party mechanism for electing our leader…..M. Charest could overcome that lead with a strong performance in Quebec and Ontario. Had PMac done better in Quebec we wouldnt be having this conversation…As for me, and many other BC Tories, we are going to work our buns off for M. Charest….We may go down, but we’ll go down swingin’!,,,,,,Weve already prevented a Poilievre coronation, (much to his supporters and the party brass’ chagrin)

  5. Douglas,
    PJH,

    I’m not for Charest but I’ve got to admire the level of personal conviction that both of you have demonstrated. Seemingly, each of you would walk on white hot coals for your candidate and that’s one hell of a compliment for him and the highest and greatest feather than any party member can have in their cap. So, sirs, I doff my hat to both of you.

    • PJH says:

      @Ronald O’Dowd….Thankee….I’m just curious how one goes from being a MacKay booster to Poilievre?….it seems a more natural fit to go for Charest…..at least it is for me…..Poilievre is definately from the Refooorm ranks, and if I hear his supporters cry “Laurentian elite” one more time I’m going to lose my shit…Double P may play well in “the base” heartlands….but he has to appeal to the overwhelming majority of electorate in this country who have no political affiliation, and I dont see him doing that…..now “Uncle” Jean C I think can do that in spades, and thats why he has my full support…plus I like his hair…..:0)….my two cents….

      • PJH,

        Right now, I’m neutral and likely to stay that way unless a candidate can give me sufficient cause to support them enthusiastically which quite frankly, neither Poilièvre or Charest is anywhere close to doing. When they tell me I have to go for Captain Canada, I respond so what. That, in and of itself, does not and should not earn anyone the leadership of this party.

        • PJH says:

          My apologies….. I assumed, wrongly, that since you hadnt declared for Charest, and made a positive comment about M. Poilievre that was who you were leaning towards…..all I know is that when I am in a room of fellow Charest supporters, I feel comfortable, and at ease. Very concerned about the direction of the country, yes, but minus the pitchforks, hay rakes, and burning torches….and I havent felt that way in a group of Conservative in years……and its a good feeling….I am hoping that M. Charest can turn that feeling into a movement akin to Louis St. Laurent….who became Uncle Louis/Oncle Louis to the Canadian electorate….only this time its Uncle Jean….He’s that approachable, and likeable….

          • PJH,

            Think nothing of it. Your points are well taken once again. Isn’t it ironic that we need to go somewhat moderate to win and yet the main challenge in this enterprise is getting party members to recognize that? To what extent are they collectively prepared to bend and what candidate can they swallow in order to do that? That’s pretty much the rub.

  6. Meanwhile, went to Poilièvre’s Quebec City event this afternoon. First the good: a big crowd considering we were in the midst of a small snowstorm. Pierre connected with his audience and even cracked a few good jokes. He’s a solid speaker.

    Now for the not so good: Team Poilièvre needs to read up on Agnew and adjust the campaign strategy accordingly. Remember, this is a preferential ballot and it’s all about that second ballot ranking so don’t make enemies when you don’t have to. Again, read up on Agnew’s role. Nixon was NOT Agnew. Finally, those poster visuals were an unmitigated disaster. They left far too much of an impression of entitled presumption. Bad, incredibly bad, political strategy. How did Byrne miss this?

    • Douglas W says:

      Brown + Lewis’ supporters will not go to Poilièvre.

      Poilièvre’s only hope: a first-ballot romp.

      • Douglas,

        Agreed about Brown. For me, Leslyn is a wild-card who can either come up the middle or become a KingMaker. Depends on why she’s REALLY running: for leader or for the obvious cabinet consolation prize.

        Maybe Lewis already has a deal with Johnny and maybe she has one with Pierre. Or, she will keep her powder dry until the maximum leverage point and then poof, either she’s the leader in a shocker or she’s made the leader. To go to Charest would require she break unequivocally with CL and others. Will she really do that? We’ll find out soon enough.

  7. Douglas W says:

    Kind words, Ronald. Thank you.

    Libs don’t care about principles.
    They only care about winning.

    And they keep winning because, in vote-rich areas, tone counts.
    And their string of recent leaders all offer kinder, gentler ways, which resonates with voters.

    Double P’s angry approach will not sell in seat-rich areas.
    He’ll be immediately dismissed.

    PMJT ain’t going anywhere.
    He’s got it made with PP leading the charge.

  8. Douglas,

    Poilièvre badly needs far better strategic advice. Pierre really needs to stop taking the bait or provoking a war of words with any other candidate. Either he grows up pronto and develops these skills or as leader, he kills his own chances in the election. This incarnation of PP can’t beat Trudeau or Freeland. A new more politically savvy incarnation has a chance, especially if the election suddenly breaks his way. Never, ever, say never. No less than Trump proved that to all of us. Unfortunately.

    • Don’t forget how the last vote broke O’Toole’s way only to have him self-sabotage it with ThoseFuckingSoCalledTruckersTM. O’Toole did it to himself, all by himself and so he paid the appropriate political price for that when he wouldn’t shut the hell up about that, EVEN after the election.

      Pierre, don’t become the next O’Toole…

    • Douglas W says:

      Another lockdown (heaven forbid) and PP will be cruising across the finish line first, on a scooter.

      Otherwise, in the long term, he’s sunk.

  9. As for Jean, he has to earn the leadership by demonstrating authentic CPC bona fides. That could be a hard sell, depending on his membership date and what he unofficially did de facto while not a de jure member. That’s the needle that Johnny has to thread and he also has to pray that Bibeau does not bubble up in this race either thanks to his opponents or later in the campaign, the Trudeau or Freeland Liberals.

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