, 03.30.2023 07:57 PM

My latest: prosecution, forgone conclusion

Ralph Waldo Emerson said it best.

“When you strike at a King, you must kill him.”

The parentage of the American essayist’s words have been claimed by many, but one thing can’t be denied: if you indict a former president of the United States, you’d better not lose.

And this writer – who worked, full disclosure, for Hillary Clinton in three states in 2016, including at her Brooklyn headquarters – thinks Manhattan’s District Attorney is going to lose. Badly.

As everyone is noting, this has never happened before: a president – or a former president – being indicted for a crime. In the 247 years that the American republic has existed, no president had ever been charged with a crime. Ever.

Impeached, yes – Andrew Jackson and Bill Clinton, once, and the aforementioned Donald J. Trump, twice. But arraigned, fingerprinted and photographed like a common criminal? That’s a first.

It also won’t succeed. As much as this writer detests Trump, the fact remains: successfully prosecuting a president – any president – is doomed to failure.

Forget about the “no one is above the law” piffle. If O. J. Simpson showed us anything, it’s that celebrities in the United States are judged by a different standard. And Donald Trump isn’t just a celebrity – he’s arguably the biggest celebrity of this era.

I also think he’ll walk. Five reasons.

One, if you read any of the news stories about Trump’s indictment, you will repeatedly see two words:  “legal theory.” The “legal theory” relates to whether it was inappropriate to mix Trump Organization funds – and presidential campaign funds – in some Byzantine way to pay off a porn star.

If you are ever going to try out a “legal theory,” best not do it with a former president in front of an international audience. Experiment at home first, sure. Not on the front pages of the world’s newspapers.

Two, the principal source of the allegations against Trump come from one man: his former lawyer, a convicted criminal. Michael D. Cohen was the one who allegedly arranged for the hush money to be paid to porn star Stormy Daniels. Problem: Cohen is a crook, a convicted fraudster and perjurer. He’s been jailed for those crimes. Why would he be believed now? For the prosecution, it’ll be a big hill to climb.

Three: the other star witness is one Stormy Daniels, a porn star. The pneumatic Daniels is no dummy – she showed a rapier wit on social media – but she is also a bit of a loon. Among other things, Daniels bills herself as a “paranormal investigator” – and stars in the “Spooky Babes Show.” She has testified previously that her house is haunted by “a non-human thing with tentacles.”

While those of us who have gone through divorce can empathize with that description, it isn’t going to do much for Stormy’s credibility on the stand. Spooky, indeed.

Four: the Manhattan prosecutor in the case, Alvin J. Bragg, is a registered Democrat. He went to  Harvard, he’s a good Dad, he taught Sunday school. No matter. The Right Wing Death Machine is about to pluck Bragg from obscurity, and pop him into a political Cuisinart. Every mistake, every misstep that he has made in his 49 years is about to get the proctologist’s treatment. He is going to become a human piñata, and fodder for every Republican presidential candidate.

Five: and that is the biggest reason why indicting Donald J Trump is a mistake. It will unite all of the GOP presidential aspirants like nothing else. A black, Harvard-educated Democrat prosecuting a Republican former President who still tops most polls?

That’s not all. A line has been crossed on Thursday in Manhattan.  When the GOP retake the White House – and they will – they will return the favor, with extreme prejudice. They will indict Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton – and the Kennedy brothers, if they can.

The criminal prosecution of Donald Trump will unleash a Civil War in American politics like has never been seen before. It’ll be ugly.

Trump is a crook. Everyone knows that.

We didn’t need a doomed-to-failure prosecution to remind us.

 

23 Comments

  1. Sean says:

    Not so sure I agree with Warren on this one.

    Strategically, the sentiment is bang on. I vaguely recall Chretien writing in one of his memoires “if you plan a coup… don’t miss….” The same principle is at play here. If you’re going to take down someone that big, you can’t f$&k around. At all. As Machiavelli tells us you need to injure your opponent so completely that retaliation is impossible.

    That said, my understanding is that this is essentially an accounting crime. The lawyers need to keep it within that framework as much as possible. As Warren tells us, the witnesses resemble a media circus freak show, the likes of which we’ve never seen before… which would be fun but not strategic at all. If they can keep it to the boring spreadsheets and financial reports, that is the way to go.

    I also disagree with the OJ analogy. There was a racial / anti police dynamic present in that trial that is not present in this situation. Conversely, There are moments when the system does indeed look past celebrity. Harvey Weinstein, Bill Cosby, Lori Laughlin are just a few examples. Maybe they didn’t get the same treatment as Joe and Jane Frontporch, but they did get some comeuppance at least.

    I say let the system do it’s thing and see how this plays out…

  2. Peter Williams says:

    “No one is above the law, and everyone has the right to a trial to prove innocence”. Nancy Pelosi March 30, 2023.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1641594971462541315?

    Prove innocence?

    Used to be you were innocent until proven guilty.
    Welcome to the USSA. Union of Soviet Socialist America.

    • Peter,

      She’s not a lawyer. Pelosi misspoke but she should know better, given her former position.

      • Martin Dixon says:

        Misspoke? Come on Ronald. Any 10 year old who is allowed to watch TV knows that you are innocent until proven guilty down there.

      • Peter Williams says:

        Do you really believe she mis-spoke?

        I think she knew exactly what she said. She’s shaping public opinion.

        At the end of this “doomed to failure prosecution” Democrats will argue he didn’t prove his innocence.

        • Peter,

          Well then, Democrats would be fools to argue that. An acquittal means not guilty at trial. But not guilty and truly innocent aren’t the same thing. Only God knows who is innocent and who is not. Not Democrats, not Republicans, not Independents, not anyone else.

    • Martin Dixon says:

      The mad cow would be the most charitable explanation.

  3. Nasty Bob says:

    Would your opinion change if this wasn’t about the hush money payments ? There were 2 grand juries in Manhattan, no ? My recollection is the 2nd mystery jury sat on Thursdays. Leaks say up to 30 counts on the indictment issued today ( a Thursday ) . I predict tax evasion and/or financial fraud . That hits a little different than porn star payments .

    If I’m wrong I will donate an original pressing of the Invasions of the Tribbles EP ( with original sleeve and lyric sheet) to the Punk Rock Museum in Vegas if they don’t already have one

  4. Martin Dixon says:

    Funny article but likely bang on. The “legal theory” paragraph made me laugh out loud. Sent it along to some democrat friends in the US that would not even acknowledge receipt they would be gnashing their teeth so much.

  5. EsterHazyWasALoser says:

    Wasn’t the DA who brought this prosecution an elected politician? This is the problem with having individuals with defined political agendas being elected to an office where they can then use the law against their political opponents. Democracies aren’t supposed to work this way. I’m not a lawyer and I don’t pretend to understand the legal intricacies of this case. A famous New York judge (allegedly) said once that you can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich if that is what the prosecutor wants. This case seems pretty weak to me, but I guess we’ll see. There is no doubt this will only make the political situation in America worse, if that is possible.

  6. Tod Cowen says:

    This indictment is probably just an appetizer. But just because the appetizer might not to be to everyone’s taste, there are several courses of tasty legal dishes yet to come. We may well hear from Fani Willis, the Fulton County DA, before Victoria Day, with another indictment. That one probably won’t feature a “novel legal theory. After that, we have Jack Smith’s January 6th investigation in DC, which just scored a major victory by compelling grand jury testimony from Pence, Meadows, et al. Smith also has the documents file, and scored a major victory there as well. I wouldn’t bet against one or more indictments of Trump from those investigations. So, even if this first indictment is the weakest, there’s more to come.

    We’re about 11 months out from the New Hampshire primary. I doubt that any of those cases will have come to trial before that time, Trump will probably be campaigning as a twice-impeached, twice (or more) indicted candidate. His base won’t mind, but those swing voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona probably won’t give him a second chance.

    • The Doctor says:

      From what I’ve read, the two other ones that could prove very troubling for Trump are the Mar a Lago documents case and a very underreported SEC investigation into DWAC and Truth Social.

      On the Mar a Lago documents case, they seem to have Trump dead to rights on obstruction of justice (so much so that prosecutors were able to pierce attorney-client privilege, which is rare and huge).

      The SEC case, if it progresses, is also bad news because there is significant prima facie evidence that Trump committed securities fraud.

      • Doc,

        They’ll likely get him on January 6th. Ditto, for canary, Allen Weisselberg. I don’t know, twenty years would be a good start. Really works for me! Of course, God might do humanity a favour and make sure he drops dead sooner rather than later. Also works for me. So long, POS.

  7. Gilbert says:

    I hope this doesn’t make Donald Trump more popular. Could the strategy of the Democrats be to ensure he becomes the Republican nominee? If he does, he’ll lose in 2024.

  8. Warren,

    It might take a miracle but Trump could still win in ’24, at least theoretically.

  9. Andy Kaut says:

    Wait, what?

    OJ Simpson taught us that American celebrity has its perks? What of Canadian celebrity?

    How about a laurentian sop that groped one woman, fired another, accepted paid vacations from someone who had political interest in his position and was thereafter reelected twice? All the while lying about the above, claiming pure misunderstanding?

    Sorry, we don’t get to say, “down there” and ignore our own slightly more polite version of the same corruption.

    • Warren says:

      And engaged in egregious racist acts. Several times.

      • Andy Kaut says:

        If I ever lose count of the number of times I appear in blackface, please ensure my political career doesn’t make it past Chair of the Five Mile Hall Not-for-profit.

        It’s like swearing at Deputy PMs. Probably not a candidate that would make it past vetting, save for the ejaculatory lottery.

  10. Curious V says:

    I don’t think average people care so much about moral lapses because they know that it turns political, and folks, irrespective of their side, will exaggerate for political gain. Trumps mistakes, ridiculous outbursts etc. just get a shrug from his base – “he’s one of us” they say, even though he’s a billionaire with no grasp of the everyday persons life. Trudeau, also privileged, but on the other side of the spectrum, not nearly as privileged as Trump, he gets the same from his base – whenever the other side points out his mistakes, or poor judgement – they say “whatever, just more bs from the extreme right, more from his detractors”. I think, in politics, generally speaking, people in real terms don’t really give a fuck about the mistakes they made in their youth, or small moral lapses – they think about right and wrong (their own versions), polarizing. It’s only the other side that makes everything a big deal, and the base of either side just shrugs – nobody really cares that Trump paid off a porn star, it’s just an opportunity to get him – I’m no Trump fan, not in the least, but I don’t really care that he paid off a porn star – I care that he wants to pull out of Ukraine, and deflate NATO, but I could care less about who he slept with.

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