— Feature, Musings —07.29.2023 11:14 AM
— Feature, Musings —07.29.2023 11:14 AM
Warren,
If we’re really ten points ahead and steady as she goes, we’re in. Just a question of whether the CPC actually gets a majority on the first PP try.
Trudeau believes he’s naturally entitled to this job so he’s not about to resign for anyone, not even Jesus. So…if the heat gets too hot under his ass from cabinet and caucus (I’ll believe that one when I see it.), he’ll do the cowardly thing and call a fall election, not so much because he truly believes he can WIN but more so he can take all, or at least most of them, down with him. Just call it the TRUDEAU MENTALITY at work.
If the Conservatives get more seats than the Liberals, but not a majority, Justin will still form a government. He’ll rely on NDP support.
If he needs both NDP and Bloc support, he’ll still form a government. The Bloc will extract lots of money and legislators concessions from Trudeau. Jagmeet will chirp a lot on Twitter, but Trudeau will continue to play the NDP lots ke a fiddle.
I find it hard to beleive the Bloc will prop up Justin.
The Bloc May prop up Justin Trudeau. I think it would depend on what concessions they can extract from Justin Trudeau.
I think the Bloc would get more than Jagmeet Singh would.
Tasha,
My deepest condolences to you and your dear friend’s family and friends.
Swooning an absolute banger. Been turned on to lots of stuff from this podcast but that is the best(so far). He channels Julian Casablancas.
And Shout Out Louds and Petey:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKKU5u6ZBtY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6KzeSpA6eg
Here’s my quite literally fearless BC federal election prediction coming from a guy who knows less than diddly about BC politics, federal or provincial:
normally one would expect the NDP to pick up seats in areas presently held by Liberal MPs, but this time likely will be different. It’s no secret that the NDP’s left is less than thrilled with the Axis of Weasels, which they consider a sellout. Just imagine a scenario where fatigue lowers Liberal voting numbers and the NDP’s left sits this one out, what do you get? You get an Ignatieff scenario, where the Conservative percentage of the vote in BC goes up. Still, far more importantly, the CPC wins more seats there because of deliberately reduced Liberal and NDP voting patterns, caused by progressive voters themselves.
The other day, I noticed a federal poll that had the Conservatives sitting at 20 points in Quebec.
If the poll is accurate, then the Conservatives have momentum in the province, and now pose a real threat to the Bloc in rural ridings.
The battle for Quebec will be between the Conservatives and the BQ.
The Liberals own the island of Montreal, with a few relatively safe seats outside the 514.
In other words, the Liberals are in trouble, everywhere.
I am sorry Tasha lost her friend. This story has bothered me since I read about it in The Star on Monday. Tasha needs to get her friends at the CBC to talk about this Bilkszto story. It is journalism malpractice not to. But what else is new at that network. My dad used to teach educational supervisory officers to prepare them for their roles but thank god he didn’t teach the now Director of the HDSB. Here is her deleted tweet:
https://cdn.quillette.com/2023/07/F1hAEUzXwAEwGVU.jpg
She only took it down after being threatened with a lawsuit. She is now actually IN CHARGE of a school board and PROMOTED to that position after she posted that disgusting tweet. It is beyond shocking.
I concur on the absolute disgrace of this whole situation. However, I am not holding my breath that anything gets done about it.
Since the “pragmatic and non partisan” CBC has yet to cover this in detail, others have stepped into the fray with sombre and careful analysis. Someone sent me this. I don’t watch Fox News.
“DEI firm allegedly called White principal who died by suicide a ‘weed’ that should be cut down”
https://www.foxnews.com/media/dei-firm-allegedly-called-white-principal-died-suicide-weed-should-cut-down?fbclid=IwAR37YwvMvMF9HATgAigCGJCLd-C_relqn7CYZQZz78lXjZZIrt_m135XG9c
Hit me today that those of you who still have buyer’s remorse about Charest(naive IMHO because you underestimate how much of a target he would have been by the usual suspects) need to remember that Charest would basically have had zero cred on the Chinese interference issue.
Couple of things on PP. He has always been a smiling assassin but people are just starting to notice. And he didn’t look like an angry nerd, he just looked like a nerd. Full disclosure, I used to read ahead in grade 13 calculus because I thought it was fun so I am sympathetic to nerds. And look around, LOTS of successful nerds. I will grant it is not a good look in politics. He has also regularly drawn large crowds but if the media reported on them, they would say stuff like “sure he drew a lot of people in London but it is easy enough to gather 2000 fascists in a place like that”.
Also, as Brian has pointed out in the past, he has always been ripped. Likely just not hiding it anymore. Kind of going with a Zelenskyy look which does inexplicably work for some but whatever.
Martin,
Representing clients comes with the territory when one is in a law firm. Unless one is above partner status, you take the files that flow your way and concern your areas of specialty. Clearly, the China file is not good for an aspiring political leader in a leadership race. But then again, given the makeup of this party, his run was already dead in the water from the very first moment he entered the race. Most Conservatives saw this one coming a mile away. Regrettably, not Charest personally, nor the top echelon of his team.
The environment, or climate change, it’s an existential issue. It impacts everybody on the planet, it’s a threat to human existence. I still don’t think it’s a powerful enough issue, in the minds of Canadians, to overtake affordability as the number one issue. Maybe I’m wrong, but my feeling is that people may care, but they care more about their bank account than the environment. Even with forest fires raging around the world, sea levels rising, floods, and hurricanes – they’ll vote based on their pocket book –
Curious,
If climate is an existential issue why does the polluter in chief fly so much?
Why does Steven Guilbeault fly so often?
Shouldn’t they be video communicating?
When there was an approx 1% chance of dying from COVID, both Trudeau and Guilbeault took action, isolated themselves, and made Zoom calls.
Now with climate change being a threat to all our existence (your words, Trudeau’s words, and Guilbeault’s word) what do Trudeau and Guilbeault do? Fly, fly, fly. Pollute, pollute, pollute.
Hopefully Curious, you have given up your vehicle and are now taking public transit. Apparently our existence depends on this!
Covid restrictions allowed people to learn that almost anything could be done by zoom. None of the dumbass virtue signalling hypocrites(you named two up there) in charge have got that memo or, more likely, they have but don’t care.
Meanwhile, Freeland(another dumbass virtue signalling hypocrite) is telling the PEI types to buy a bike and move to downtown Toronto while she is getting chauffeured around in a limo.
Sort of on topic. Climate psychology therapy is now actually a thing.
https://video.thinktv.org/video/climate-anxiety-1690742938/
Those of us of a certain age maybe could have used a similar thing during the duck and cover drills during the cold war? It is a wonder we got through it.
Curious V,
Climate change unfortunately is a no-win issue for humanity. GD governments refuse to take the politics out. It’s all fine and good for China and India to claim that the West is responsible for most modern day emissions. They want a fucking pass as a result and that’s way beyond insane. We in the West have to cut drastically our emissions but so do they otherwise we’re doomed as doomed can be and far sooner than we think. Curious V has it exactly right but wind and solar account for only 1-2 percent of power produced on this planet. So fossil fuels, by necessity, need to remain part of the equation for the next 20-30 years. That’s just plain reality. The car needs to start and drive and the lights need to go on when we turn on the switch. So, how to square that circle? Wind, solar, geothermal, hydro and nuclear are all necessary parts of the mix but so is oil, gas and liquids.
Well said.
EHWAL,
Thanks.
Tying Poilievre to Daniel Smith might work to sway moderates back to the Liberals, and climate change strategy is a key area where the feds can pick a fight with that wing of the conservative party. I just think that with housing costs skyrocketing, and rent following, and groceries (caused by climate change) are climbing – hard to sway people from the cost of living issue – the liberals will have to come up with some big ideas to deal with the cost of living – difficult because they don’t want to work against the central banks efforts to reduce inflation.
Curious V,
Your last sentence made me laugh. Boy, that central bank sure knows what it’s doing. After all, it was only the Bank of Canada that CREATED inflation in the first place by recklessly expanding the money supply via QE. Inflation, always, always, always is a monetary phenomenon. COVID-19, supply chain disruptions and climate change are but ancillary causes. Them chickens have finally come home to roost. But the business press lie to us every day both in Canada and the United States. They like to keep people ignorant and they do a great job of it…
Who is Daniel Smith?
Danielle
After all, The Federal Reserve has only spent daily up to 2.4 Trillion (currently below 2 Trillion) via the reverse repo mechanism to keep the American banking system solvent and yet, somehow, two more banks went bust this week. Imagine that! But remember, their banking system is sound. Got it. Next.
Lilley’s Abacus numbers astounted me…. If they are behind with women, on health care and union members… forget it. The 2015 electoral coalition is dead and gone.
Enjoyed the golf course anecdote… It is a sterling example of voting for something that is known and established as being impossible. Politics now is about sentiment. Not about achievement.
Have to disagree with Lilley that in general elections politics is local… Maybe in the 70s. In 2023, I’d say that in about 85% of all ridings, virtually no one cares at all about local candidates or even knows who their local candidate is. Much less, they certainly don’t understand their MP or MPP’s role in parliament after the election. It IS only about the leader.
That is not how it works in Brantford. But they don’t like or trust people “from away”. I have been there for almost 50 years and and I am still basically an outsider.
Just read Lilley’s piece. One advantage we have in Brantford is that the EDAs and volunteers for the feds and the province are pretty well the same people so we don’t run into whatever nonsense was going on in Kanata and Oxford. And we generally don’t take instructions from on high or let them water down our donation base. Keep most of that money local. We have helped other ridings that need it though.
That’s what small towns are like. I experienced it where I grew up – always suspicious of immigrants and outsiders.
further to the point, I think there are clearly different dynamics in small towns, as opposed to big cities. Big cities are teaming with immigrants, or adults who grew up in immigrant families – although small towns are changing with an influx in immigration, they still have the old club of generational residents who view themselves are preferred shareholders. I come from an athletic family, and it always challenged the local sense of entitlement when the immigrant kids kicked their asses – they like everything local, very local. There are good points to small towns, but the clicky old club dynamic sure isn’t one of them.
I should expand on what I was saying in case I left the impression Brantford is xenophobic. Hardly. And one immigrant family did very well. Gretzky’s. You should look them up on The Google! Many of our sporting heroes are indigenous from The Six Nations. And, just for the record, only in a country where we are subjected to the voting whims of a bunch of fawning retired widowed civil servants who have won the Toronto housing lottery and do not pay their fair of property taxes and view the now single Justin as a dating opportunity would Brantford be considered a small town. While being hauled all over the province as a kid, I lived in Harrow(pop 2562) and Hanover(pop 7688). Those are small towns. Brantford is basically a metropolis in comparison.
We don’t like or trust people “from away” TO DICTATE TO US. There have been threats to parachute candidates in and those threats have been met with extreme prejudice. And we know and like our representatives from all parties. Hardly faceless and nameless.
Derek Blackburn-NDP
Jane Stewart-Liberal
Phil McColeman-Conservative
With the exception of 4 years-those were our MPs for FIFTY tears.
Dave Levac was MPP for 19 years.
Another difference I’ve noticed, anecdotally. without any hard evidence, is that Immigrants and their kids associate more to their country than province. We think of ourselves as Canadians first and foremost, before any loyalty or association to a province. Seems like the generational locals think province first.
Personally, I have never identified myself as someone from Ontario.
My immigrant family did well, we made a lot of friends too. But there’s an isolationist attitude in small towns, and suspicion of outsiders from some quarters- That we did well garnered a lot of jealousy, and suspicion – we outworked everybody else, same as I did all my life until I had cancer.
I think it’s changing where I grew up. My parents tell me that at church it’s full of new Canadians. They’re from Africa, the Philippines and all over the world. When I was growing up my cousins and I were the only kids in the school from immigrant families –
Warren portrays himself as a Star Trek fan, yet no discussion at all about the UFO hearings in Congress?!
Next week I expect Lilley, Tasha, Mraz and Warren to debate aliens and trans-dimensional travel and I demand satisfaction! …or…. are they part of the conspiracy?!
There have been a few episodes this year that have paid homage to the original series. Strange New Worlds is much better(IMHO) than Picard or Discovery. Won’t watch the cartoon ones although Strange New Worlds did have a tie in. So it is basically the first decent stuff in 20 years.
Picard has the retired Admiral, Jean-Luc. Wish the United States had the retiring President Joe. 2024 will make Biden look like the recently lost McConnell but amplified by a factor of ten, at least. It won’t be pretty…
Note: MD and ROD also have nothing to say about the UFO hearings in Congress…. We are left with the tantalizing, yet terrifying possibility that they are also part of the conspiracy!
Actually, I had been kind of ignoring the latest developments but this story on The Newshour forced me to pay attention.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/whats-the-deal-with-ufos-the-historical-context-of-recent-whistleblower-claims
I kind of had it on in the background and heard this:
“As I have stated publicly already in my NewsNation interview, biologics came with some of these recoveries, yes.”
WTAF!
My attitude has always been we don’t know what we don’t know when people try to say that the laws of physics don’t permit any other beings to visit from far distances.
Sci-fi was my go to stuff when I was a kid.