— Feature, Musings —09.16.2023 11:04 AM
My latest: hero to zero
Hero to zero.
That’s the transformation that takes place in politics, if you overstay your welcome. And it happens pretty fast, too.
That’s why they say a week is a long time in politics. Because it is.
One day you’re on the cover of Rolling Stone, being touted as the literal personification of wokefulness — and the next day you’re miserable and cooling your heels in India, because your plane broke down and no one wants to shake your hand anymore. Boom. From hero to zero, just like that.
Politics is weird in that way, and unforgiving. Brian Mulroney won two big majorities, and ended his tenure with the support of 12% of Canadians. Paul Martin was supposed to be a juggernaut, a Toronto Star columnist decreed, and then went from juggernaut to after-thought.
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Stephen Harper was supposed to be Mr. Economics, started fretting about niqabs and “barbaric practices,” and thereby got clobbered by no less than hopey-wokey Justin Trudeau. (That barbaric practices nonsense, by the by, was cooked up by Pierre Poilievre’s brain trust. Hero to zero can happen to anyone, and does.)
And so on and so on. One minute everyone wants a selfie with you, applauding when you hijack a plane. And, the next minute, they’re looking at the tops of their shoes when you enter the room.
Trudeau has experienced metamorphosis in reverse. He started off as a beautiful and delicate butterfly, flitting from one social justice flower to the next. And now he’s turned into a caterpillar, chewing away at leaves and detritus in the dark. He is in profound danger of being stepped on by voters.
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Fifteen points! Young people! Liberal strongholds! Those are the things he’s lost, in his devolution into something less than he was. Without them, he’s hooped.
How did it happen? Lots of reasons. Serial scandals, over-promise and underdeliver, circumstances and events. But, mainly, it’s because he’s become the party guest who won’t leave.
The hosts are sweeping the floors and putting away the silverware, but Justin still sits over in a corner, loudly recalling past glories and the time Melania Trump gave him a look you could pour on a stack of waffles. He won’t leave.
He doesn’t listen to many, ever, but he was indeed advised by a few smart folks to start inching towards the exits. One majority and two minorities is plenty, he’s been told, something about which to be proud. That’s a decade. As good as it gets.
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But he demurred. He declined. He deferred. And, now, it feels like it is too late to install a fresh new Liberal face, and rescue the brand of the Liberal Party of Canada. Smart Liberals know that another victory is impossible. They just want to save the furniture, now.
Trudeau, the caterpillar who thinks he’s still a butterfly, doesn’t get it — or he doesn’t care.
This writer’s working theory is that — like many men — his father’s shadow looms large over Justin’s path through life. He wants to equal, or surpass, his father’s record. (It happens. Ask George W. Bush about it.)
Whatever the reason, he is just about out of time. If he doesn’t leave — and for the love of God, Justin, please leave — he’s done like dinner. He’s got to Christmas to rescue the party. Maybe.
Hero to zero. It’s a political cliché, sure.
But it’s also Justin Trudeau.
Some good news. Steve got his taxes paid:
https://www.westernstandard.news/news/guilbeault-pays-five-figure-amount-owed-in-back-taxes/article_ea731b0c-52f6-11ee-bdd0-43a2992bb72c.html
No one’s going to trigger the trap door.
He’ll hang around like a bad smell until next fall because … he feels like it.
And he’ll take the party down with him because … if he goes down, he’s taking everyone in the party with him.
Douglas,
Why would a narcissist do anything else? To ask the question, is to answer it.
Warren,
If Pierre lets Byrne front the campaign and its strategy, then we will likely go very quickly from the presumptive future prime minister to the reinstated opposition leader. Did Harper really send her back to Ottawa mid-campaign 2015? If so, that speaks volumes, or should. Byrne is in no way the appropriate strategist or manager to lead the CPC campaign. Everyone should get that, especially Pierre. Blind loyalty kills momentum and reverses trends. Hopefully, Pierre won’t get to find that one out himself. I’d rather not have to say I told you so. But I will, if it comes to that.
Although, she does have a lot of W’s in her column. For Harper and Ford. Her biggest loss was in an election that was probably shooting for the moon anyways. Trying to stretch 9 years into 13 is a task no one should assume is likely to end in victory. In politics, people get judged too easily by one loss or one win.
Sean,
They lost because they went down the gonzo, whacko, radical right-wing road and guess who advised them to do that?
Romald, there was no stopping that Trudsami.
Martin,
If Harper hadn’t gone where he went, how many people would have stuck with him until 2015? I doubt I was the only one who was pushed by policy to say bye, bye. Several people at Laurier Club events told me they also left because of Harper’s political bent. That was under Ignatieff’s tenure as Liberal leader.
Ronald, all I can say is that it is literally shocking to me that they didn’t snap the fuck out of it when Justin took over the reins and it was patently obvious what we would get but we have been down that path before. Many of them are still not fans of Pierre now and are holding their noses to vote for him. Thanks a lot but who cares. They have already lost all cred when it comes to judging who has the chops to be PM. Your ongoing thesis seems to be that we need to cater to people who could actually be fooled by Justin. I think I would rather lose.
Martin,
The party and the leader don’t have to cater to anyone. Pierre won the leadership fair and square and that’s where the debate ends for me. So far, policy-wise, he’s doing OK. Hope he keeps it up all the way to election day. Leadership should never be a beauty contest. It should be about guts and drive and PP has both in spades, so it looks good going forward.
Ronald, you know far more about Byrne than I do.
But whomever is quarterbacking the response team and crafting the content is doing a solid job.
Shocked that the Liberals have not counter punched.
What’s up with Katie + Ben?
Douglas,
My GUESS, since I’m not at all plugged in with Team Poilièvre, is that Pierre has been stickhandling this by himself so far, with support from OLO strategists. I hope he keeps it that way. However, when the election comes, he would do well to consult and heed the advice of the best of our strategists like Norquay, Watt, Powers, etc. With them in the mix, I don’t see how we can lose in that campaign.
Ronald,
Spot on.
Norquay, Watt, Powers: seasoned strategists.
Steady hands.
They understand that tone, matters.
If Double P listens to them, 180 seats may be within reach.
Wondering, who can counsel them on winning Quebec?
Douglas,
Well, seems to me that both of us know some guy called Charest. Pierre would do well to smoke the peace pipe with him. If anybody knows Quebec, it’s Charest. No one is better for the job.
Charest is all about breaking out of the Quebec City, Beauce and Chaudière-Appalaches enclave. Our MPs and Senators are basically clueless about how to do that, and frankly, it REALLY shows.
Lets picture the day after he finally wakes up from the haze and makes the right decision….
Is there anyone in his inner circle, in the caucus, in his family, anywhere who will feel bad / let down about that?
Would anyone be saying “he should have continued on”? Of course not. No one thinks this foolishness needs to continue.
Stop wasting everyone’s time. Stop the charade. Call the leadership convention now. Not next week. Not in November. Today.
Sean,
With respect, what you miss is that he’s thoroughly incapable of making such a decision. His overwhelming pride and humongous ego just can’t possibly conceive, much less implement, such a self-evident reality.
Ronald, fully agree.
That longish piece on Katie Telford in today’s Globe provides some insight into what’s wrong in Liberal Land these days. Insularity at the top, certain dissenting voices having been purged or simply quitting, no ability to change strategy, no new ideas etc.
That piece was too long and too boring. Don’t they have editors at the Globe anymore?
Warren,
Do you mean Katie’s well-proven strategic genius didn’t have you hanging on every word? Imagine that.
In an ideal world, she and Byrne could partner up in the future. They would be just perfect together.
Would you happen to know if strategic mediocrity can be trademarked? Just asking, for some friends.
I agree it was no journalistic masterpiece and was in dire need of editing. Still I found some content to be useful by way of confirming suspicions I had about what the problems are.
Doc,
In the world of realpolitik, any chief of staff is better left hopefully unknown and preferably way, way, way, in the background. A chief of staff, or principal secretary, isn’t elected to anything, so they quite literally shouldn’t exist publicly and never, ever, represent the given government of the day. Sir Humphrey Appleby would be appalled.
From the Globe article on Telford and Trudeau:
“It is the tightest controlled operation I’ve ever witnessed.”
“the Trudeau crew was extravagantly uninterested in seeking advice.”
And my own thought re the article saying Ms Telford has a penchant for data; I suspect the data Telford and Trudeau use has a strong predilection for confirmation bias.
I would also guess that they’re very focused in on that urban centre-left progressive demographic which they see as their sweet spot for success. But in terms of bias, I hear you, because I suspect like a lot of partisans they’re inclined to think that their target demographic is as attached to Team Liberal as they are, and it just ain’t so. Partisans always tend to think their own team is more popular and has more solid supporters than it really has.
Peter,
No kidding.
Warren,
There are few leaders who really get it: you aren’t indirectly elected PM to put in place your political agenda and your personal inherent biases. The Canadian people give you a mandate to put forward their agenda, as expressed by at least a plurality of voters in any given election. Leaders who are clueless and will never get that inevitably go down in flames. That’s what Harper did. Voters allow you to stretch and to some extent twist the common sense rubber band but when you break it, you’re almost guaranteed to be gone in the next election.
For Ford, the Greenbelt is the beginning of the end, especially the more it mushrooms, which it will. So-called political friends and sweetheart deals or shenanigans get you every time, often sooner rather than later.
Justin’s not going to go willingly. What would he do?
How would he maintain his champagne lifestyle; free travel, expensive meals, nice home, nice vacation home, etc. ?
Who will push Justin out?
I’m betting Justin is saying “I’ll campaign on abortion, Stephen Harper, and make lots of free stuff spending announcements. Plus, team Trudeau and our media friends will intensify our efforts to portray the Conservatives as far right extremists.”
He’s already independently wealthy beyond the hopes of 99.99% of the population. If he resigned tomorrow, he would easily “maintain his champagne lifestyle; free travel, expensive meals, nice home, nice vacation home, etc.”
So, no it isn’t about the money…. which makes staying even less rational.
I don’t think we know how much money Justin really has.
Will half of it be committed to Sophie and child support?
And how much of his trust fund was invested in green energy schemes? Surely Justin was investing his personal fortune in green energy? Cough, cough!
But you may be right, money may not be a problem. If he resigns, who will listen to his virtue lectures?
Right. Show me the money. Believe me, in my business, I know. No one actually has a clue who has the money. Quite funny, actually. Pro tip-it is usually inversely proportional to the silly keep up with the Jones’s wealth display nonsense. Although, I am sure that there will be a few Liberal benefactors that will keep him in the lifestyle to which he has become accustomed. He only needs a few and, based on social media, there a few people around who should know better that will do it. Or he could move into the basement of a member of the cohort where he has the biggest support along with Curious. Spoiled NIMBY golden pension retired civil servant lottery winning multi millionaire Toronto housing baby boomer widowed groupie females protecting their OAS clawback with smart accountants who still swoon when Justin is on TV(I left the army out of it Derek).
Sean,
Yup, he’s the second entitled generation: he and his old man did zip to earn that money. It was grandpapa with the Champlain gas stations that made the twelve million that the three of them inherited in the old man’s will.
Ronald, it frequently only takes a couple of generations to go from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves. I have seen it many times. Spoiled baby boomer country club types(Justin’s base) waiting around for their parents to pass only to find out that there isn’t really much there. It is actually quite funny to watch.
Peter,
I hope and pray he campaigns only on those pathetic re-tread issues. That’ll seal the deal on a CPC majority government. As long as Telford is running the PMO show, I’m not worried at all about our prospects in the next election.
Yes so far they seem to be one giant one-trick pony (i.e., go with what won in 2015). What these doofuses forget is that in 2015 they had Harper to beat like a pinata because for whatever reason a lot of Canadians had soured on him. And they fail to see that the tables have turned.
Trudeau and his coterie of YES people who surround are blinded by the same hubris that delivered Trudeau his Prime Ministership.
Die hard Conservatives simply didn’t believe that rational thinking people would propel Trudeau into the PMO. All hair and photogenic blah, blah blah, plus a resume as thin as Saran Wrap.
Top Liberals are oozing with the same overconfidence, believing their own hype about how wonderful they are and how they are going to mop the floors with Poilievre. What they can’t see is their own arrogance and hypocrisy has left a huge policy void of bread and butter issues to fill and Poilievre has outflanked and outsmarted them. Nerd haircut, glasses and all.
If I were Trudeau I would decide the kids are more important than presiding over an electoral humiliation delivered by the guy who wasn’t supposed to win.
WV,
What so many diehard Conservatives miss to this day is that Trudeau didn’t win, it was Harper who LOST in 2015. Harper was bright enough to figure that one out. That’s why he resigned immediately, much to his personal credit. Harper was Canada’s Truman, the buck truly and only stopped with him. He blamed no one but himself. (But that’s Taurus for you, but I digress.)
Chantal Hebert gave the Dauphin 4-6 months to turn things around before the Liberal Brain trust would un- sheath the knives…..The maintenance of power trumps all, even it means giving the scion of Liberal royalty, the heave.
Full disclosure: I voted for the Dauphin in 2015 (only the second time in my life I voted Liberal). I was disgusted with Mr. Harper’s lack of action on the dwindling stocks of wild Pacific salmon, and I, like a lot of Canadians, had simply grown tired of the old fart’s morose visage, Now in the summer of our discontent, Canadians have grown tired of the young fart’s smug visage,,,,and Pacific wild salmon stocks are still in dire straights……such is the stranglehold the Norwegian fish farming cabal has over both political parties. If M. Trudeau had delivered on even a quarter of his promises over three elections, I suspect the torch, hay-rake, and pitchfork crowd would not be clamoring at the gates. So much hope in 2015, but hubris has done the man in. Sad.
I see Justin has brought in Diane Lebouthillier to sort out that mess. Good luck with that! I have been watching her for 8 years. Don’t hold your breath.
Minister Lebouthillier is Rock & Roll IMHO. She
gets the job done quickly and that’s why PM Socks
is relying on her political acumen.
Robert, based on previsions posts I am pretty sure that isn’t a joke. Revenue and Finance impact my life daily so I paid a lot of attention to her and Morneau. IMHO, Lebouthillier didn’t even rise to a level of competence where she could be criticized. Personally I am not optimistic for those wild Pacific salmon.
PJH,
Name one Liberal PM who didn’t leave of his own accord. Chrétien is the ultimate example of that: he said fuck you Martin, and not only ran again but left when he damned well felt like it. Hébert is dreaming. Liberals don’t have the guts to ever knife the leader. Not going to happen in a million years. Not ever.
To paraphrase Samuel Johnson: A hanging in a fortnight tends to concentrate the mind wonderfully.
I suggest the Liberal Party has a tendency to encourage” it’s leader’s to leave, before they are pushed: Think Dion, and Ignatieff. Mr Turner knew it was time to leave before the stiletto needed to be used. I suggest M. Trudeau will take that walk in the snow if he isnt able to turn around those poll numbers in 4-6 months. Personally, I hope he stays, if only for the electorate to give the LPOC the giant enema come the next Federal election that it so desperately needs.
PJH,
The Turner thing is interesting. He was in power but was bested by Mulroney. For Turner, No to Free Trade was the fight of his life but a plurality of Canadians were elsewhere. He left while in opposition, just like Dion and Ignatieff.
For the record, Turner said, after the 1988 federal election, that he would have renegotiated the free trade deal.
Well, what if the Americans said: no thanks?
I find the “I would have negotiated a way better (and 100% favourable to our side) deal” thing to be one of the most irritatingly dishonest things a politician can say.
One of the reasons dishonest politicians love making this argument is that it’s impossible of proof or disproof. It’s a counterfactual.
Douglas,
I definitely was on the wrong side of this issue. I was in lockstep with Turner.
Kind of funny though to see Mulroney pivot from being against it to fully embracing it. A shamrock pivot.
Justin says he’s rolling up his sleeves to solve the housing crisis.
Freeland says it will take years to solve.
Why is there a shortage of housing? Ferris? Ferris? er Justin?
Monetary Policy M2 gave us wholesale inflation &
immigration in one fell swoop.
Dr. Iffy Macklam is a federal Liberal Party disaster run
amok. He’s a Liberal appointment, too.
Robert,
Sometimes, there’s a legitimate case to be made for cocaine. That was the case with QE and Obama in 2008. But the tap needed to be turned off and interest rates raised as soon as inflation made an unacceptable uptick. But No, the fools stuck with the cocaine.
Look at the greatest fool: Lagarde. No one was more dovish at the ECB or anywhere else. She’s the most behind the curve and she’s still tightening aggressively, even more than Powell. That tells you something. It’s Depression time in the EU and UK and the worst recession in history for the United States and Canada. Stagflation ahead in North America. Meanwhile, Argentina joins the hyperinflation group of nations. (I prepositioned in oil, gold, silver and uranium stocks. But that’s just me.)
Lower for longer free money went on for far too long and the central banks are attempting to borrow their way out
of debt, but we all know that one cannot borrow their way out of debts or deficits.
You said that it would take at least ten years for Poilievre to ‘balance the books’ a number of threads ago. Banks and governments are wholly incapable of reducing their balance sheets and Lagarde is no exception. Moreover, the EU is poised for bankruptcy
given the amounts they have borrowed since the onset of the GFC in 08.
North America is decoupling via markets [see Mandelbrot] and our central bank can’t borrow
its way out of debt by flooding the country with
stimulus whilst preventing hyperinflation of goods
& services. Macklam even went as far as telling business leaders to not raise wages of workers as
he attempts returning Canada to 2% inflation. He
can’t return to 2% inflation and neither can Jay Powell.
Cars & trucks are now unaffordable for the average
worker across North America. Food is far too costly
as well and so are rents for housing. Bottom line is that the elites cannot maintain their lifestyle if the wage slaves can’t afford to drive to work or even rent
affordable housing in places like Toronto or Vancouver.
Immigration has forced decoupling of market rental
housing across the entire continent whereby all major
metropolitan mayors are screaming bloody murder over the inevitability that these cities will end up in bankruptcy if the influx continues.
Ottawa’s downtown core and market shopping district
is awash in homelessness and illicit drugs. Our LRT
plans have bankrupted the entire transportation system and the city is losing millions per year with
no possible way to recoup lost ridership.
System wide decoupling of markets is a clear indicator of mismanagement via the economy.
Governments can’t borrow their way back to balance or 2% core inflation.
Our Feudal lords are getting richer whilst everyone else is making plans to move to Hooverville 2023.
Macklam, Freeland, Trudeau, & Lagarde are wealthy enough to avoid Hooverville lifestyles.
Canada’s markets will now hyperinflate because nobody has any plan to do otherwise. Mismanagement is now the norm rather than an outlier. Welcome to Argentina by way of Canada, Ronald.
Make sure to buy physical gold rather than gold futures. And know that governments will confiscate gold eventually when the good ship Titanic lists to port side and sinks below the waves.
Robert,
You better also stock up on water, dried food, fuel, weapons and ammunition if it gets that bad(don’t necessarily disagree). Hard gold won’t do you any good if you can’t protect it.
Martin,
I’m a purist fisherman. Never would I shoot poor
old Bullwinkle or Bambie. I’ve never been interested
in hunting whatsoever. I’m a fisherman. Lake Trout
and Brook Trout is my outdoor sport.
If the Global Economy implodes I’ll head North and go fishing & camping for the rest of my life. I’ll live the
Upper-Paleolithic hunter-gatherer lifestyle and coexist with the Boreal Forest.
Robert,
Absolutely. Remember when Biden changed the statistical definition of recession for his own political re-election purposes? More of that is coming in spades.
Powell wants to pull out of thin air a new inflation target. Like you said, 2% is buried and done with. So, The Fed will move to either 3 or 4%. Meanwhile, +200 American banks are now at the reverse repo window begging for money as they’re already technically insolvent. Two more went belly up in the last week or so. So, fun times ahead.
People don’t seem to get that ETFs are based on paper derivative contracts for either gold or silver. There is no there, there. They can’t possibly convert all those paper gold and silver contracts to physical. That’s why Trusts are the way to go, if you want to be able to convert to physical.
I don’t own physical gold or silver. I prefer the leverage of stocks in those two sectors. You can’t confiscate a stock. If the majors do a 3X in the next bull market, the small and microcaps will likely do a 6 to 9X. For sure, confiscation is more than a theoretical worry. Roosevelt proved that and then revalued gold once he had it all. Thoroughly despicable.
Robert-the weapons will be to protect yourself from people trying to steal your fish. Your version of dystopia is a tad optimistic as is arguing, Ronald, over what version of paper to own. It will only be useful as toilet paper.
One day you’re writing your name in cement and the next day your in it.
Better to get out a champ than a chump-a lesson too late learned.
Oh well-Next batter up.
Pipes,
See folks. I would hardly call Pipes a rabid partisan of any party and he can clearly read the likely writing on the wall. Trudeau and Telford would need coke glasses…and even then…like Pipes said, chumps.
Question Period resumes, Monday.
Will PMJT respond well?
Will Double P connect with a few solid right hooks?
Will Jagmeet attempt to be relevant?
Guaranteed, Blanchet will perform strongly. He always does.
It resumes Monday but then Justin and Joly are jetting off to NY for a few days.
My mom is on the left, but even she says JT must go.
I have no idea what is going to happen. PM Justin Trudeau is a fighter and not a quitter (IMHO anyways) and I think he would rather fight an election campaign than resign. But who knows? I’m not sure the party would like to have a leadership race while in a minority parliament either. Mr Singh can pull the pin at any time, and might decide to do so if he thinks his party can make some gains at the Libs’ expense. Mr Poilievre will also face an unprecedentedly hostile MSM whenever the writ is dropped, and he may not do so well on the stump. Just my 2 cents, and what the heck do I know?
EHWAL,
Your last sentence applies to all of us. No crystal balls in sight! Only conviction, some right on target and some dans les champs, as we say in Quebec. Only God knows which is which.
There is no fight on the horizon. Walking directly towards a hostile firing squad with live ammunition is not a fight. It is nonsense.
Political parties, even those in government, are very capable of facilitating Leadership conventions. It has happened multiple times, even recently, and it is no big deal.
PP will not face a hostile MSM on the stump. They know that subscribers / readers / advertisers don’t want to hear a word of it. No one wants Justin to stay. PP is the only alternative. The entire election will just be a relentless, merciless pile on from day one. The settled consensus from coast to coast, from all perspectives, is that the next election is about one issue and one issue alone. Restoring Canada’s dignity by putting an end to the Justin mess permanently.
If Liberals want the election to be about something else… well… they know what to do.
pardon me… should read “Political parties *even in a minority parliament*, even those in government, are very capable of facilitating Leadership conventions….”
How odd..
Any knowledgeable Canadian who read Fred DeLorey on substack very recently and/or IPolitics was gifted a coherent & impressive analysis of his perspective on various & sundry insider Liberals, even elected MP’s – who possibly might wish upon a star that the current Prime Minister of Canada would ‘walk in the snow’ due to All Hat / No Cattle / Just Trust Me / The Promises Are In The Mail / Poilievre4PM .. & thus
A – Cut & Run (but from whom ?) Michael Cooper ? Jenni Byrne ? Ray Novak ? Pierre & Ana ? Partisan Yellow Media ? Daily Pollsters & The Attention Industry ?
B – Invite a Legacy of causing (the Unelectable aside from her home Riding due to a truly unfortunate facial impediment ) – MP Freeland – to face an Immediate Toxic & Exultant Sneering Public Assault that would make the David Johnson Character Savaging ‘Win’ seem harmless hijinks
C – Not stick around to see how the MIA ‘Public Servant’ of Carleton Riding tries to explainaway his Insults, Fuckery, Abandonment, Unaccountability & Constant Deceits & thus deserves their vote
D – And finally not wait around to see what Mr NEW FEMALE VOTER-FRIENDLY FACE & Stylin Cool Cat Family Man & his Seething CPC Party & Base does if he LOSES THAT RIDING..
What then Mr Kinsella ? Parachute Pierre via Historic Suicidal ‘Winner steps aside for Loser’ – Who’ll Then Live Where ? Stornoway ? Now that would be Historic eh !