— Feature, Musings —09.07.2023 06:17 PM
My latest: watch LeBlanc
Watch Dominic LeBlanc.
Watch what he does.
As everyone knows by now, reputable pollsters are saying that Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are as much as 14 points behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. 14 points!
Depending on how the votes break, and where, that’s not just a Conservative majority. That’s a Conservative landslide victory.
And, as much as the winged monkeys who make up TruAnon try to do so, Abacus and Angus Reid can’t be dismissed as fly-by-night bucket shops. They do good survey work – including, over the years, for Liberal governments.
So, it’s real. The Tory leader’s lead hasn’t been an erratic leap upwards – it’s been slow and steady. In just about every demographic, in just about every region, Poilievre is ahead. Sometimes far ahead.
So what’s the big deal about Dominic LeBlanc, you ask? Pull up a chair.
And, first things first: I know LeBlanc well. His office was right next to mine when Jean Chretien was opposition leader. Dominic was an Atlantic desk advisor, and I wrote speeches and helped prepare Chretien for Question Period.
We were close, back then – close enough that Dominic’s father, the legendary Romeo LeBlanc, became godfather to my daughter. We’re not close anymore, however. (Dominic didn’t even bother to send along a note of sympathy when my mother died in July.)
That’s politics, I suppose. But one relationship cannot be denied: Justin Trudeau and Dominic Leblanc are very very close.
It’s hard to know if Justin Trudeau actually has a best friend. But if he does, it’s LeBlanc. Whenever Trudeau gets into trouble – a frequent occurrence – LeBlanc is one of the trusted ones who regularly gets sent in to do cleanup. As he did, this week, announcing a public inquiry into Chinese election meddling.
It’s a question that was asked often this week, as the magnitude of Trudeau’s electoral problems becomes more clear: who has the guts – or the clout – to tell Justin Trudeau it’s time to take a walk in the snow?
Because, make no mistake, if the Liberal brand is to survive, it needs a change in leadership. It needs a Trudeau – Liberal leader for more than a decade – to retire to speech-making and memoir-writing.
At this stage in his mandate, unfortunately, Trudeau surrounded by the C team. None of his aides have the seniority or wherewithal to tell him that he needs to quit.
So that task must now fall to Dominic LeBlanc. He’s the only one who can do it, at this stage.
Will he? He certainly has personal motivation to do so. The Reid and Abacus surveys found that Trudeau’s Liberals are in big trouble in Atlantic Canada generally, and New Brunswick specifically. And LeBlanc watches the numbers in New Brunswick like a hawk.
He knows that if the so-called “red wall” crumbles in Atlantic Canada, the Liberal Party of Canada is heading for second place, or worse. And Dominic LeBlanc doesn’t want that for himself – or his best friend.
As the Conservative convention kicks off in Quebec City, the delegates are understandably cheering their good fortune. But some of the smart folks in Pierre Poilievre’s office will be keeping an eye trained on Dominic Leblanc, too.
Because if he tells his best friend to leave – and his best friend does – it’s a whole new ball game.
Watch Dominic LeBlanc.
Wow. My relationship with a few people has changed over the years but I would never let that get in the way of an expression of sympathy for the loss of a family member. Never. I had actually recently been thinking that Leblanc is the only guy that has the gravitas to get through to him.
So much for my working theory that his struggle with cancer might make him a little less partisan.
The timing makes sense. Even more so last spring which is when these conversations needed to start for real.
Start the contest now. Pressure is off immediately. Leader does an international farewell tour pretending to be a dignified statesman.
Leadership vote maybe in mid – late March / 7 months from now. Also spend that same time recruiting new candidates across the country. New leader sworn in sometime in April – just like his father was in 1968. Then off to the races. Ride the new leader polling bump. Maybe present a budget as a platform.
Not bulletproof, but its as good a plan as they will get at this stage of the debacle.
sigh…..Do we really need 1,000 miles of more drama to figure out the obvious?
Warren,
Well, I don’t know LeBlanc at all but my impression is that first and foremost, LeBlanc is all about LeBlanc and what’s good for him politically. He no doubt knows The Heseltine Lesson verbatim: he that draws the knife, never becomes leader or PM. That’s point one.
Secondly, he’s best buds with HimselfTM among those elected. Pablo is also close but comes in second to LeBlanc. I seriously doubt that it’s in his DNA to cross The so-called Almighty. Granted, could be wrong though. We’ll see.
But all of this may be neither here nor there, especially if Trudeau is in Depression Central. That might be enough for him to pack it in on his own. Again, we’ll see.
I think Trudeau sticks around and leads them in a suicide election against Poilièvre. The result for them will be somewhere in Ignatieff territory. They may quite conceivably get less seats than he did but I have my doubts about that.
As for Justice Hogue: which party did she support before being named to the bench and which party did her family support? Doubt we’ll get those answers pre-inquiry. I wonder why, rhetorically speaking?
At some point, PMJT is going to call an election and leads them over the cliff.
He’ll only quit if Katie T. leaves the PMO.
Douglas,
Kind of depends if Telford can finally nail down the big job in DC. Despite her glaring mediocrity as a strategist she is all that is left still holding that PMO in place. So…Katie can’t go unless Trudeau goes. That’s what they get for throwing Butts under the bus. Oh No, my mistake. Sorry. Butts “resigned.”
Dominic LeBlanc, the next leader of the federal Liberals?
I can see that happening.
If team Trudeau goes down in the next election, I don’t think Liberals will be kind to Trudeauites. I think they’ll toss any of Trudeau’s cabinet that runs for leadership and vote for someone outside the current group of MPs.
Peter,
Absolutely. Agreed. None of this crew cleaned up TheJustinMessTM so that’s inherently disqualifying. They desperately need that fresh blood transfusion that can only come from the outside.
Leblanc won’t be leader if he takes Justin down.
I think this is also the end for LeBlanc and about 2/3 of the cabinet. Peter’s comment below is exactly what I’m thinking. There will be a permanent stigma on those few who normalized this mess and allowed it to continue after Blackface. Allowing the Justin circus to Continue on after that was inconceivably irresponsible. Maybe they can be forgiven for not dumping him mid campaign in 2019 but there needed to be a serious plan in place for his exit shortly after that.
Polls two years before an election do not tell us how people will vote in the election.
I suspect that Trudeau’s hand picked judge who will ‘examine’ foreign interference, will spend a lot of time focusing on right wing extremists. A compliant media will amplify the inquiry’s ‘evidence’. All in an attempt to discredit the opposition.
Expect to hear Team Trudeau talk about abortion, abortion, abortion.
And the government spending flood gates will open. “We’re borrowing money so you don’t have to”. I once explained to a young convenience store clerk that she’d have to pay for the borrowing. Her response? “Oh no, it’s government money, not ours.”
I am told by a reasonably reliable source that she will be fine and don’t forget that Pierre would have signed off on her. She also doesn’t come from an academic or political background. She has actually done well in the real world of high stakes litigation. I am going to keep my powder dry on the selection.
I’m pessimistic. If Trudeau (and Telford) selected her, I’m afraid ulterior motives will be in play.
Why would anyone trust Trudeau?
They’ll blather on about abortion because that’s what they always do. They’ve been doing it literally for decades now. Meanwhile on planet real world, The Supreme Court of Canada handed down the Morgentaler decision effectively legalizing abortion in Canada well over 35 years ago. And anybody who think the current SCC would reverse that is an ignoramus when it comes to these matters.
The people who would actually cast a vote for the Liberals based on that kind of lurid, misinformed fearmongering are already mostly in the bag for the Liberals, NDP or Greens IMO. It’s a totally different situation legally and politically than in the US. This will just not be a significant vote getter or vote mover for the Liberals unless the CPC does something epically stupid between now and election time.
Doctor
While I agree with your point that the SCC has closed the abortion issue, the Liberals don’t care. Fear is a wonderful election tool, and playing the abortion card is a low cost strategy.
Every election there is another four year cadre of young voters. Team Trudeau will play the abortion angle in an attempt to get these votes.
And there’s always a group of undecided voters. Team Trudeau will play the abortion angle to get their vote too.
The ridiculous ignoramus, Marcie Ien, who gave oxygen to the 9-11 conspiracy theorist freaks and then somehow got named to cabinet did it today. Carry on.
https://twitter.com/MarciIen/status/1700249044470337842?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Have to just laugh at them.
Peter,
Kinda hard for HimselfTM to get any traction when both him and Pierre are Pro-choice. Like Martin says, it’s all about basic arithmetic. That strategy doesn’t add up at all. Zero cred.
Ronald
It doesn’t matter how often Poilievre says he’s pro choice, Liberals will repeatedly paint him and the conservatives as anti-abortionists.
And much of the media will report their assertions.
Peter,
The Liberals foolishly think that abortion rights can be a game-changer for them in the next election. They can quite literally lie and distort the truth until the second coming of Jesus and they still won’t win the next election. Their already done as dinner.
Oops. They’re already done as dinner.
Peter, I appreciate the points you make. And I suppose I should never underestimate the stupidity of the average voter. God knows I’ve been burned many times before by making that mistake.
Doc,
You won’t get burned this time: this convention was a watershed moment for both the leader and the party. This is a new ballgame where we’re on offence, in an ever-smiling and nice way, while they’re truly on defence and desperate for quite literally anything that can lessen or obliterate CPC momentum. Good luck with that. Change is coming to Canada as soon as the writ drops.
LeBlanc, the greedy Minister who did a shady personal deal with a close relative and tried to bury it? That guy?
Max,
Sometimes I wonder if there are any Liberals who don’t award lucrative contracts to family members.
Like its Laurentian Elite creators, the Liberal Party is hopelessly inbred. Leblanc is too much an insider to even suggest rejuvenation.
I hope Trudeau leads the Natural Governing Party off a cliff. Too bad that would mean waiting two years, but it might be worth the wait to obliterate the party (I will rejoice the decertification of the Evil Empire). What could the Liberals possibly offer post Trudeau? The dying gasp of most brands is hiring a celebrity spokesmodel.
They’ll have a spirited leadership contest, and start anew – they’re always a threat because most Canadians are liberal, even if they’ve grown tired of Trudeau. A combination of interest rate hikes, preceded by inflation induced by global events has offered Poilievre a chance to foment frustration and anger. If he wins his honeymoon, when people get more of the guy, is gonna be short lived – that’s if he wins.
Curious V,
LOL, LOL, LOL. You wish!
If Poilievre wins we’ll see massive protests across the country – just wait until Canadians meet the real PP
Curious V,
Keep dreaming.
They have. How is that working out for you?
You meen the reall PP that:
-has a hidden agenda
-is just like Trump
-wants to deny a woman’s right to choose
-will make citizens use their credit card instead of their health care card
-will import American style politics
-likes guns
-doesn’t belive in science
Yawn….been there, been doing that since the 90s. The Liberals need something new. The party is so desparate I could see it hyping trans issues in a pathetic attempt to conjure a wedge
You missed the death penalty. The fact that these people think that we will turn into some sort of Gilead is just plain silly(that is about as charitable a characterization that I can come up with).
https://the-handmaids-tale.fandom.com/wiki/Republic_of_Gilead_(Series)
Serious question Curious. Name some policies that the full time civil service is going to come up with on Pierre’s behalf that is going to be so scary. Not optimistic because you have always had a problem answering specific questions but I’ll wait.
Ummm….Curious, the public IS getting more of the guy and Ana(so formidable) and with what I consider predictable results.
What about all that prior talk about Mark Carney dropping in as Liberal saviour?
Canadians would never usher in ex-Government Sachs
partners such as Mark Carney. He’s still hanging around
in the background though and he might attempt to run
for the Liberal Party as a financial saviour of Canadian bacon. The Conservatives would only need to remind folks that he’s ex-Government Sachs Vampire Squid alumni.
AB,
Carney, The Davos guy? He’ll make Martin 2006 look like a Liberal “landslide.” Also, he’s too fucking old, not to mention irrelevant.
Iggy without the personality. I hope they are that stupid.
Poilievre et al talk a good game, but when the time
comes for winning seats in the GTA they will lose
hands down given that the Conservative Party has never established themselves via grass roots in any of the major metropolitan cities across Canada. The NDP & Liberal Party have all the big cities locked down via
municipal grass roots campaigns that the Conservative Party cannot reasonably compete with for any federal election forwards.
A double digit lead in the polls looks promising,
but when Canadians consider prototypical election
rhetoric of Conservative Party members they will
wince on any real Conservative empathy for suffering
Canadians that cannot make ends meet YoY.
Conservatives are not typically known for being
benevolent towards unions seeking cost of living
increases. And Conservatives usually favour big
business over worker dissatisfaction vis-a-vis
wages and minimum wage laws.
Poilievre cannot form government without actual
gains via seats in the GTA where homelessness is
a core issue for all Torontonians that vote.
The median is pumping possible fortune for a
Poilievre win far ahead of any actual ground game
that the Conservative Party will have to run just to
win over the election deciding GTA that rules via
left-of-center values & mores rather than Conservative.
Base for Conservatives is rural at best, and that’s not
going to cut the mustard federally in this day & age
IMHO.
So basically what you are saying is that you don’t beleive the polls or that the polls won’t hold. That is fine but I don’t agree.
Robert,
In short, nope, not at all.
You see Liberal apologists can’t understand why there’s no homeless crisis in Canada. After all, HimselfTM focused like a laser beam on his top-of-the-top priority of massively financing the building of apartments for the homeless across Canada. He simply can’t understand why the homeless can’t find the doors to all those invisible apartments and homes that the TRUDEAU Liberals have helped put on the market since 2015. I hope the homeless remind this Phoney Asshole and Company to go thoroughly fuck themselves. They deserve nothing less for sitting on their hands since 2015. Hypocritical, lying bastards. At least you have the decency to vote NDP instead of for those POS.
Ronald,
If the goddamned Conservatives even get close to
winning in 2025 I’ll move back to the goddamned
Liberals in a nanosecond.
Freeland is a stellar leader that I’d back if she needs
the help. If she stands beside our drama teacher-in-chief
I’ll likely do the same.
A few seats in Atlantic Canada(doable, esp. if Mr. MacKay gets back on board as a candidate)
A few extra seats in Quebec(doable, esp with the Conservative leader’s name and facility with the language, and Quebecers tendency to vote en masse for a leader they find appealing(see above)…..think Mulroney, Chretien, Layton)
A few extra seats in the GTA?…..possible as well, though as you say, difficult.
Aside from the ossified Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre, I would say there are no safe Liberal or NDP seats in Western Canada at the moment, such is the disdain for the Dauphin and the Bollinger Bolshevik on the Wet coast.
Result?…..A minority Conservative Govt at the least. Of course the election is two years away, giving time for inflation to ease, the housing crisis to end, and the increased carbon tax to be willingly accepted.
I suggest you have your transporter handy,
The question is: Who in the Liberal caucus will perform the regicide and wield the stiletto on the Dauphin that is so necessary for the LPOC to avoid a wholesale slaughter in 2025?
Answer: No one. No one left in caucus has any backbone. His cabinet members are nothing more than a coterie of sycophants.
Result: The Dauphin will lead the LPOC to its worst defeat since the days of John Turner. Not such a bad thing….a humbling experience would be good for the Natural Governing Party, and would give it time to rebuild, rejuvenate, and attract the new talent it so desperately needs.
PJH,
You know, when you start screwing, serially or otherwise, behind an established relationship, that’s almost always the beginning of the end, across the board. That boomerang has finally come home to Duncey and it’s so fitting. Simply exquisite. I won’t shed a single tear for that guy. Not one.
or ahem, the older talent that helped give M. Chretien a record three majorities in a row……wink….
PJH,
The so-called older talent that has actual values of being honourable, trustful, straight with people, ethical and modest about their proven God-given abilities to win simply won’t go anywhere near this JokeOfALoserTM. Not happening, nada. Not one of those remarkably talented and decent people will go anywhere near this phoney asshole. Not happening, ever.
Remember how some people tried to destroy people’s businesses or careers and if that didn’t work, went after their nearest and dearest just for fun. And now it’s political payback time in spades. Enjoy!
Got caught up on a few things today and I see Michael Wernick referred to PP as a PM in waiting. You can’t get any more Laurentian Elite than him and he didn’t say it with any sort of horror.
Trudeau (and Jack Layton’s untimely demise) saved the Liberal Party brand from oblivion, but this time will be a different trip to the woodshed (more like 1984): Singh is too closely allied with Trudeau to benefit from the coming reaction against what the last five years in Canada have been and will likely see his own seat count in peril too.
The next decade of Canadian politics will be a Poilievre/Champagne affair, with a new NDP side act (perhaps Niki Ashton or, if they’re ready to roll the dice again, Alexandre Boulerice)
Agree
Caro,
I’ll believe Champagne as leader when I see it. It’s all about shoring up previous bastions in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and to a far lesser extent BC and Champagne will do none of that. They badly need a fresh face from the outside. You won’t see Champagne pushing HimselfTM to leave. Not in a month of Sundays.
Put another way: name one outstanding triumph that immediately comes to mind due to Champagne’s abilities since he’s in cabinet. Tick, tock, tick, tock. Five, four, three, two, one, ZERO. Time’s up!
Ronald, he is one of the few cabinet ministers that doesn’t offend and trigger people and come across as condescending when he speaks. So there’s that. And he is a happy warrior. Like Pierre. Their interactions would be fun to watch. I also think he is smart enough to know what he doesn’t know because he has actually been in the real world. Not many others with that attribute. The fact that he hasn’t been noticed is actually a plus. Most of the rest of them have been noticed for something ridiculous.
It’s sad that Mr. LeBlanc didn’t bother to send a note of sympathy. Anyway, if he wants to conduct himself in that manner, it’s his choice. Maybe he can convince Justin Trudeau to resign, but as others have suggested here, he doesn’t want to be seen as the person who forced out the prime minister because that would ruin his own leadership aspirations. My guess is that Justin Trudeau will wait until we’re closer to election time, and then decide. He could claim the Conservatives are far-right extremists who only care about the rich, don’t like immigrants, and want to make abortion illegal, but I don’t think it’ll work.
Gilbert,
IF Trudeau goes and he goes closer to the election, that will royally screw the Liberals as they won’t have enough time to organize a leadership race. They would have to go into the next election under an interim leader. Like I said before, I could be wrong but I expect HimselfTM to lead them straight to disaster in the suicide election.
Warren,
I strongly oppose the two trans-resolutions adopted at the convention. The first one would “restrict gender-affirming medical care for transgender youth”. This is going at this the wrong way. First off, sure, parents should be advised and consulted where youth under 18 which to proceed with transgender treatment. But parents should NEVER have a veto if the child is 16 or over. The law allows 16-year-olds to drive, without parental consent, and this is no different than that.
Secondly, “[A]nother opposes the inclusion of trans women in women’s spaces such as on sports teams and in bathrooms.” Ask yourself what is the thinking behind this resolution. Quite simply, trans people are automatically presumed to be potential perverts and they went through this life-changing decision so they could sexually abuse others of the same gender. Absolute nonsense that is based on the usual suspect, ignorant people who don’t care or bother to get informed on these issues. Trans people are no more prone to be sexual offenders than either of the two traditional genders.
So, Pierre had better stay far away from these two resolutions. If he doesn’t, the vote subtraction process will begin in earnest and it will be giving the Trudeau Liberals their first lifeline, thanks to the collective ignorance of a plurality of CPC members.
And by the way, why do you think more and more secondary schools are having to convert some bathrooms for trans people? Here’s why: because some fellow students are choosing to beat up trans people when they try to use their gender-affirming bathroom and even when they try to use the bathroom of their birth gender. In short, an increasing number of trans people are being beaten up and ridiculed at school by fellow students. Why do you think some trans people opt for suicide? Wake up people! Get properly informed. Quite literally, lives depend on it.
I fully agree with everything stated in the above
post, Ronald. It’s political suicide for the Conservatives
to be singling out Canadian transexuals merely for
wedge politicking. Moreover, Scheer said the Conservatives would ‘balance the budget/books’
post-autopsy of the convention.
Already the Conservatives are setting themselves up
for failure. And that failure will continue unabated
IMHO.
You should switch to the NDP like I did.
🙂
Not going to be an issue.
Robert,
Scheer better not have given a timeline on that because it will take at least a decade, if not more. And if they pull a Martin and balance on the backs of the provinces and territories, they’ll be hell to pay pronto with a CPC government rapidly going down in flames in a subsequent election.
Robert,
As for your kind invitation, thanks but definitely no thanks. I’m no social democrat, just a Red Tory. I’m staying right where I am. Frankly, Pierre needs all the help he can get to resist the gonzo proposals of some in the party. I will shoot as many of those down as I can right here, Warren and then God willing. It’s called pre-election damage control. I was pretty swell to give MYSELF that job. But hey, somebody’s got to do it, so that the smug little bastard finally is thrown out on his ass in the next election as he so richly deserves.
For TRUDEAU Liberals: As Martha Bach (Geraldine Fitzgerald) so eloquently said in Arthur I, “Don’t screw with me, Burt.”
Ronald, Pierre doesn’t have to adopt either of these but let me give you some context on the second one. There are A LOT of people who are way on the left that support that one. Lots. Former athletes, coaches and people who just understand sport generally. I have many friends in the track and field world where we would disagree on 99 out of 100 things but agree STRONGLY on that one.
And you basically agree on the first one just at what age it should be applicable.