— Musings —09.29.2023 12:25 PM
— Musings —09.29.2023 12:25 PM
Warren,
I think Brian is right. Absolutely, Jagmeet has no intention of breaking the supply and confidence agreement but the party mentality has largely changed post-the Jack experience. With Jack, they almost made it. So, IMHO, most party members want to win, especially under a scenario where the Trudeau Liberals are THIS weak. They’re going to push Singh to the wall at some future point and he’ll have to agree to withdraw his support. When that happens, the campaign is on. My best guess: next spring, which I think is far more likely than next fall.
Ronald, the current state of affairs is no surprise to me. As far as when the next election will be, here are the numbers for MPs that will not be eligible for a pension until 2025:
Con-38
Lib-24
Ndp-7
Bloc-21-that is 65.6% of their caucus-maybe they will be the problem especially with rising Tory support in Quebec
Grn-1
Martin,
Here’s my take, for what it’s worth: unless disaster strikes those 38 CPC MPs are likely pretty safe in their ridings. Ditto for most of those Bloc seats. I expect CPC gains in Quebec but not likely more than thirty seats if a landslide takes place in English Canada. The NDP will probably be hoping for opposition status so those seats are relatively secure also. So that leaves twenty-four MPs who won’t be able to significantly influence events when a non-confidence motion eventually comes to the House floor.
Warren,
This is something I thought I would never believe, much less write: my sense of it is that Trudeau has reached Trudeau-Turner fatigue levels and as a result, Poilièvre could reach Mulroney territory with a majority. We all know it’s not the same party, but that doesn’t seem to factor into the equation in a major way. Now, it’s basically irrelevant. So, expect a CPC majority with more seats than most pundits will predict.
CPC majority?
Don’t count the chickens before they’ve hatched.
Peter,
True but how many people foresaw the first Mulroney majority? In short, when momentum builds steadily and then suddenly takes off in a campaign, the likely trend almost becomes unstoppable. So, maybe I’m right and maybe I’m wrong. We’ll find out, I think, sooner rather than later.
Not the same party? Anyone happen to notice the flaky pink Tory progressive that Mulroney managed to campaign to the right of? Joe (who?) Clark had the national soft belly liberal leading Canada ready to oust Trudeau-un.
Next thing P.E.T. (Being far smarter than Maggie’s little boy) bowed out – Turner provided all but sexual favours to the departing gang and Mulroney knifed the Clark pinkies, he attacked the inept out of touch Liberal party and leader Turner, then went on to govern from the RIGHT.
The only people surprised were the long haired sandal-footed Dippers and the Liberal brain trust.
Mulroney won as a right wing Conservative Party not a soft pinko one like those who dream of being soft and centrist who are Progressive blue but would vote liberal in a New York minute moments after pissing and moaning that they didn’t get their way in the party.
Conservatives win when they offer an alternative to slimy (rotting) soft liberal gruel – arguably Liberals win when conservatives rot. They do not win when they try to imitate each other. If people are ready for it Polievre just needs to be Polievre.
If your vote shifts Liberal to Tory and back you should consider how much you’ve damaged the Liberal left flank over the last decade – by abandoning them. At the same time commie dippers selling themselves to liberals have damaged the liberal right flank.
Don’t get me wrong I’m happy when liberals implode. I just remain amazed that liberals and those who flip flop possibly think it’s someone other than their own doing.
Mulroney and Harper both failed as they tried to move the middle through liberalesque pork barrelling and not by doubling down on conservative successes.
The right only leaves conservative clutches when they are abandoned. Forget all the false fronts about social conservatives. This country would do well to embrace a right of centre / left of centre balance beam. That means cater to the middle where you agree and staying true to your roots.
Love the home country where they have a leftist commie Labour Party and a heartless greedy Tory party and do nothing liberals are merely the whore to the other two. Maybe this crop of liberals can Herbert Asquith the Canadian party.
Phil,
If you’re talking centre-right, sure. But quite obviously not far right, which the CPC is not. As one of those pinky commies à la Clark on social issues, I’m the party’s dodo bird.
Heaven only knows what humiliations and indignities Canada will endure next week. And on…and on… it goes… with no hope and no end in sight to the never ending catastrophic Justin mess. Gerald and Katie just can’t let it go, so Canada is required to just keep getting punched in the mouth ….over…. and over…. again…. Because it’s 2023.
Watching Rosemary Barton, former conservative Andrew Coyne, Althia Raj and Chantal Hebert discussing how Pierre is blowing the Nazi story out of proportion for political gain. Fair, I guess. But where the heck are they when Justin and his ilk drop the nonsensical abortion card every time they get in trouble. Enquiring minds want to know.
And on P and P last night, Delorey basically admitted the same thing and the Liberal on the panel(god knows who he was which says something I guess) was horrified but yet he giggled when Delorey pointed out they do the exact same thing with the abortion card. Worse actually. There WAS a REAL LIVE Nazi in the HOC.
Please give me a break.
There is a tactical reason the Tories are dragging out the Hunka controversy. They know that over the next year or so and possibly during the campaign, some compromising photos / texts / emails what have you are likely to emerge featuring their own MPs / candidates posing with some equally despicable characters.
By dragging out the Hunka story as long as possible, the Tories can inculcate voters with the notion that “hey / weird stuff can happen with Nazis and all the parties make these mistakes”.
Martin,
We’re way, way, way, past the possibility of Trudeau Liberals putting lipstick on this Nazi pig. Those fools on the panel have moved on to polishing this turd to make it shine. Well, here’s a news flash for you: the only turd they’ve successfully polished is the pretense of their journalistic objectivity. They’re not even remotely credible and it shows for all to see.
Funny, CTV left the typo in dumbass Marc Miller’s tweet:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pierre-poilievre-called-out-for-truth-and-reconciliation-day-photos-with-inuk-elder-1.6584871
“We are all learning some difficult truths, particularly today, and mistakes can happens.”
They certainly can. Rage farm and that is the result. Nonsensical incoherence.
I took a screen shot in case the kiddies in the short pants in his office finally wake up.
Martin,
At least Pierre tends to know whose funeral he’s actually going to…the other guy, nope… Next.
Trudeau Liberals: what a bunch of pathetic losers. Parliament Hill is on Algonquin territory. Grasping at cheap theatrical straws, the new Liberal specialty. Can anyone be more desperate? They’re already done.
Yes indeed. We can expect another ar right majority government ruling with a small minority of the popular vote. A large majority of progressive Canadians being ruled by a far right party. It’s so discouraging. We are doomed.
Robert,
Progressives have two choices: dead pan drop the incompetents and vote NDP or give the CPC a chance. Unlike the Trump POS, our party honors the election law and calendar so we will face the voters again after four-five years if we win a majority, which we definitely will if TheHeadIdiotTM is still PM when the election finally comes. Canada didn’t die with Harper and it won’t die with Pierre as PM.
What are you talking about-seriously? Doomed? Right there you lose all cred.
Robert,
Progressives can vote NDP and dead drop the incompetent Liberals, or they can give the CPC a chance. The world didn’t end with Harper and it won’t with Pierre. Unlike the Trump POS, our party will respect the election law and calendar. I hope and pray that Trump literally drops dead every single day but yes, that’s a bit beside the point. He’s pond scum on a good day.
Anybody who doesn’t understand that is actually a moron.
I get it that most people have had more than enough of Justin Trudeau. But seriously, do they want the most obnoxious little prick in the land for their prime minister?
Peter,
Pierre has toned it down since becoming leader. You seem to have missed that. That comes with maturing as party leader.
Yes, he has, clearly. A few years ago, I had a few conservative friends, some MPs, that generally agreed with that characterization. I watched him in the House and I watched him in committee and thought he had the chops to beat the ACTUAL obnoxious little prick that is currently our PM. To a person, every one of them came around because they are actually paying attention. So, Peter is just another guy buying the CBC, tru-anon pablum fed to him. But let’s say that characterization is true, I will take obnoxious over incompetent all day long. But his mileage clearly varies.
I’ve been observing the obnoxious little prick since he was first elected about twenty years ago. Ditching the eyeglasses and business suits may have worked for you, but not for most.
PDS on full view. Surprised you didn’t bring up his hair. That is the usual go to for you guys. And you need to follow the bouncing ball as to when he ditched the glasses.
Peter,
Maybe, just maybe, your sense of observation isn’t quite as finely tuned as it once was. If Pierre was a dickwad none of us would bother posting comments here or anywhere else. Mind you, likely voters seem to have made that distinction as well. Our polls are holding up just nicely, thank you very much.