, 10.08.2023 10:03 AM

KINSELLACAST 280: Lilley, Mraz, Belanger on the war Israel didn’t start – but will win, plus Militarie Gun, Scowl, MSPaint

15 Comments

  1. Martin Dixon says:

    Frankie Bubbles had potential and he is throwing it all away with this silly virtue signalling grocery store pricing issue. If they could somehow take ONE HUNDRED per cent of Loblaw’s net income as tax, for example, which is not going to happen, it will save each of us 3.7 cents a day. And he knows that. I really like math. His nickname is going to go back to his original nickname-The Little Chihuahua. Has come a far way down from the meeting in 1999 referred to in the article below but that is what happens when your fate is tied up with Justin’s. Think of the other former serious person, Morneau.

    https://macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-smiley-friendly-cunning-francois-philippe-champagne/

  2. Warren,

    I wish I could share your conviction that without a doubt Israel will drive Hamas into the sea but I don’t. The IDF will most certainly decapitate Hamas’ leadership and kill as many fighters as possible but as we’ve seen countless times before in the Middle East, the terrorists will live to fight another day. Think Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, etc.

    Let’s face it, past Israeli incursions in Lebanon and previously in Gaza were at best, a long and grinding slog that ended in stalemate.

    Don’t get me wrong, I want the IDF to go in and deliver justice to those fighters. I just don’t think you can win decisively against the revenge of the cradle. In the end, you make peace with your blood enemies. That’s the only way. As much as Rabin loathed Arafat and did not want to shake his hand, in the end, he begrudgingly did just that. And he paid for it with his very life. A cold peace is always infinitely better than a warm-to-hot war. In this instance, there’s a terrible price that needs to be paid for invading Israel and killing civilians. The IDF will deliver on that and get at least a technical win, if not an outright one.

    • Peter Williams says:

      You make peace?

      The only peace Israel’s enemies will accept is the removal of all Israelis from Israel.

      • Peter,

        You don’t seem to remember what was in the PLO National Covenant (Charter): precisely that. And it was removed when Arafat renounced terrorism in the 1993 Oslo Accords. So, Yes it can happen with other groups. Obviously, NOT Hamas, Islamic Jihad or Hezbollah in the current political context where they quite deliberately choose to remain terrorist organizations.

  3. On Israeli intelligence: it would seem that Hamas abandoned all person to person communication capability so that none of its conversations could be intercepted by Israel’s domestic surveillance apparatus nor by satellites. It is said that Hamas used courriers. In addition, there is often questionable value in relying on human intelligence and foreign assets. In this case, one can suppose that some Palestinian sources were likely deep cover double agents. That might explain part of the human intelligence failure. Finally, even the likes of Mossad or Shin Bet get sloppy. It’s called human nature and that no doubt also played a role here as well.

    It’s also incredible that American intelligence agencies did not get wind of this either. That is incredibly troubling given their level of sophistication, sources and methods.

    • I don’t think Israel knew. That’s basically impossible as the United States would never be complicit in such a scenario, a scenario where American citizens have more than likely been murdered in cold blood, and perhaps even a Canadian.

  4. On Iron Dome: there is some talk about there being a limited supply of missiles and an intercept-kill ratio of between eighty and ninety percent. So, a battery can theoretically be overwhelmed eventually if enough rockets are headed Israel’s way.

    It’s my understanding that Patriot and NASAMS are not compatible with Iron Dome. One presumes that eventual modifications may change that.

    In short, Iron Dome can’t possibly cover all of Israel and take down every single rocket. Unfortunately, the sad proof of that lies starkly on the ground.

  5. They didn’t allow anything in Gaza. Hamas and Fatah went at it and it eventually escalated to a full brief civil war, which Hamas won. That’s why Hamas controls Gaza, much to my regret.

  6. Labour leaders and academics who celebrate this deserve to lose their jobs, FULL STOP. God will take care of the rest.

  7. EsterHazyWasALoser says:

    While I agree with the necessity of wiping out Hamas once and for all, there are a couple of problems. Firstly, Hamas will not stand up and fight the IDF. Instead they will threaten to torture and murder their hostages and hide behind civilians. So, many Gazan civilians will die. Secondly, in order to get rid of Hamas, some power must ensure that there are fair elections, and protect the people in Gaza from intimidation and retribution from terrorist organizations like Hamas who will use violence to gain power, and then retain. Obviously the long term solution is some form of an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, but that doesn’t appear to have any hope of occurring any time soon.

    • EHWAL,

      I agree with your point about Hamas using hostages as human shields. In addition, they will want to use them for prisoner exchanges, normally lopsided in the Palestinians’ favour. But when Israel enters Gaza, they will fight. As you know, with this level of population density and Hamas’ proclivity for operating from civilian infrastructure, yes, many Gazans will die but Israel will also take far more casualties in battle than they would normally do. Fighting in a territory this dense is any army’s nightmare but Israel will do it, given that they have no other choice but to go in.

      As for ridding Gaza of Hamas, that can only happen if the people turn on them but no entity presently exists in Gaza that can do that. Much of the population is not thrilled to live the way they live but Hamas remains solidly entrenched there.

      • The Doctor says:

        Hamas is a flat-out dictatorship. You’re right, in that sense there’s virtually no chance of some civil society-type indigenous opposition force succeeding against them.

  8. Warren,

    Thank God for organizations like the ADL which provides a true picture of what is happening there. Latest reports confirm that war crimes have been committed. The USS Gerald R. Ford is on its way. If any American hostages are killed, this war will widen with American participation becoming highly likely.

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