— Feature, Musings —11.28.2023 01:02 PM
My latest: the Trudeau end times
Annihilation.
Bloodbath. Destruction. Massacre. Decimation. Wipeout.
Use whatever synonym you like, and it’ll apply. The Liberal Party of Canada – at one time, the most-successful political machine in Western democracy – is heading inexorably towards a defeat of truly historic proportions.
Some of us have been warning, for a long time, that this day was coming. Justin Trudeau, we opined, had turned the Liberal Party into a cult – a cult of personality. We said that, when he fell – and he would, because every leader does, if they’re in power too long – he would take the whole party down with him.
We said that the Trudeau Liberals had become tired and old. That they overpromised and under-delivered. That they had become a top-down movement – and were no longer a bottom-up political party. That they had become what they came to Ottawa to change – division, disunity, hyper-partisanship. That they couldn’t stick to a position if their lives depended on it – as with Israel, which they support or don’t support, depending on the weather.
But, even after all that, the latest numbers are just shocking.
They come to us from Nanos, a firm that the Trudeau government itself uses. It’s one of the best. And here’s many seats will change as a result of Nanos’ latest poll.
• Conservatives: projected to win 210 seats, which is 91 more than they have now
• Liberals: projected to win only 53, a drop of 107 seats
• New Democrats: projected to take 39 seats, which is 14 more than they presently have
• Greens: Nine seats, which is a pickup of seven
• Bloc Quebecois: no change
Take another look at that. Pierre Polievre’s Tories are projected to win four times as many seats as Justin Trudeau’s Grits. Four times!
Every party in the House of Commons is likely to pick up seats in the next election, as well – or, in the case of the Bloc, hold what they have. But the Trudeau Liberals, according to this Polling Canada seat model of Nanos’ numbers, are bleeding to everyone else – the Tories, the Dippers, the Greens. They are being crushed on the Left and the Right.
TruAnon winged monkeys will say, and have, that the next vote is a long way off – and that’s true. They will say that the Tories are peaking way too soon – which is arguably true. They will say that Trudeau remains their best asset, because he’s beaten the Tories thrice – and that he’s a great campaigner.
Not true. Not anymore.
If modern politics is a “daily campaign,” and it is, then Trudeau has been losing that, every single day. He and his cabal have been buffeted by too many stories about mistakes, missteps, and malfeasance. It’s impossible to credit them with a single clear win in 2023. There isn’t one. They’ve lost the daily campaign.
Similarly, Justin Trudeau can no longer be regarded as the Liberals’ secret weapon. He in fact is their biggest problem.
Way back when, this writer worked for Jean Chretien. I was pushing Chretien one day to do some press on an issue. Chretien declined. “Young man,” said he, “I don’t want or need to be in the media every single day. If you do that, people will get sick of your face.”
And that, in a Chretienite nutshell, is Trudeau’s biggest problem of all: overexposure. He’s been in our faces too often, too long. When his days were sunny, Trudeau would benefit, with Rolling Stone cover stories, and fawning media profiles. He got all the credit.
No longer. With the economy and the national mood faltering,Trudeau is now taking all the blame. In politics, you have to take the good with the bad, and Trudeau is now experiencing much more of the latter than the former.
Thus, the polls. Thus, the seat projections, which suggest 1984 and 1993-sized upsets are imminent.
For despondent Liberals, what is the only way out? Simple.
Justin, just go. For the love of God, just go.
Would love to have been in that cabinet meeting today.
And caucus today.
Can’t see the Dauphin quitting. If he’s going down, he’s going to take the party with him.
My hunch: a spring vote and most of the caucus decides not to run.
About 85% of them (elected in 2015) already have qualified for their parliamentary pension.
An ugly beat down.
What post-politics job prospects does he have?
He isn’t a lawyer.
His international profile is terrible. So forget the UN or NATO.
He could sit on various boards of NGOs, but that is a real trip-down in terms of the adulation he lives for.
Don’t forget the Trudeau Foundation. They will be happy to take him on as a senior executive.
Perhaps he could sell socks?
Imagine Liberal MP’s thinking right now……if he goes, it could be a whole new ball game(esp if Franky Bubbles becomes leader…..the only one of the Libs front bench I have any respect for, and gasp, …even could possibly vote for).
Decisions, Decisions…….Regicide is always difficult.
PJH,
Those gutless wonders will do precisely squat to give HimselfTM the heave-ho and I’m counting on that.
Those gutless wonders … love life at the trough.
Screw the country.
None of them will ever get my vote. They put an empty suit there and then serially sucked him off. Fuck ’em.
Tell us how you really feel Ron…….;)
PJH,
[Smiling broadly.]
Francois Bubbles will hold the Conservatives to about 200 seats.
The federal Liberal Party of old perfected the art of succession planning.
Now, the cupboard is completely bare.
Is there any Liberal who doesn’t admire China’s basic dictatorship?
Warren.
Is it too late for a new leader to change their fortunes? Looks like Trudeau is toast, what do they have to lose by trying out somebody else in the next election?
Curious,
Nothing is impossible. Trudeau could come up with a Hail Mary Pass and save his bacon but those odds quite candidly are not more than a theoretical one percent.
If they turf him or he quits, it’s a new ballgame. The Liberals become more competitive if it’s a good leadership pick, but the numbers are already pretty much baked in. So, a new leader would likely only save the Liberal furniture, which is impossible for Trudeau right now. But again, anything is possible in politics no matter how remote the possibility.
Nothing to lose. They should do this now. The timing would work out. JT could stay as a lame duck until it’s over. Its been done before and people should stop freaking out about it as if it is impossible. The new leader rides directly into the election. It’s the only option and its the only hope they have. They might win, they might lose, but no change at all is akin to losing on purpose.
2011 is the more apt analogy IMO and honestly I don’t see why they would even do as well as Ignatieff. I think the floor is potentially even lower with Justin’s fourth kick at the can.
Sean,
Yes, I also think they could get fewer seats than Michael did. Quite possible.
Ronald,
Team Red will hold onto about 20 seats in and around Greater Montreal, and another 20 in the GTA.
The rest of the country: they’ll win 10.
Nasty.
Trudeau isn’t going. What else would he do?
If he left, he’d have to pay full business class fare on all his vacation trips. Can anyone really see Trudeau flying economy?
Jagmeet Singh will keep supporting Trudeau because pharmacare is Jagmeet’s big win. But on pharmacare Justin is playing Jagmeet like Lucy plays Charlie Brown re kicking the football.
If, by some miracle, Mr Versace pulls the plug on Justin, don’t worry Liberals, Justin will do a deal with the Bloc.
Perhaps Justin will announce another big battery plant to be located guess where? It’s only money and Trudeau thinks there’s an endless supply.
Look for all the Team Trudeau to increase their attacks on Pierre Poilievre. For example Ken Hardie. Sure he ‘apologized’, but Liberals know the original statement gets the bulk of the news coverage.
The far right this, far right that, attacks from Team Trudeau will increase. Trudeau is counting on the association that far right is essentially nazism.
Team Trudeau will also keep planting the idea that an NDP vote means ‘far right’ MAGA Poilievre gets elected. Expect to see lots of Poilievre/Trump linkages in the news.
.
Peter,
Their “strategy” is to continue hitting themselves on the head with the hammer this time expecting different results…what a bunch of chumps.
They know the jig is up.
They’re going through the motions, and they act like they really care, when they really don’t.
In other news, the CEO of the Toronto Food Banks
said last week that there were 2.53-million client visits to about 150 food banks in Toronto in 2023 — a 51% increase compared to 2002 — and one in 10 Torontonians are now relying on food banks.
Folks are fearful, and they have long memories.
*2022, not 2002
Food bank usage up.
Reminds me of Freeland’s speech where she said “Perhaps it’s time for the middle class to take a pay cut.”
Team Trudeau’s policies, with help from Singh, are certainly giving many Canadians a pay cut.
But PM Flying Socks and Mr Versace get big raises every April, and Flying Socks doles out millions to his Liberal friends, family members, and consultants.
Douglas,
Wow, just wow. Incredible that things are already this bad.
Trudeau can answer his true calling by joining the cast of Celebrity Big Brother. This will provide plenty of time to pursue a side gig on OnlyFans targeted at women retired from the public sector.
“Just go…”. That is sound advice indeed. However, Mr. Blackface possesses hubris so great he will not believe the polls, or that Canadians would really turn away from him – we Canadians are so fortunate to have him leading us. And, with the last three Conservative leaders possessing weaknesses with which he exploited, his logic would suggest “this time will be no different”. I doubt he can even imagine losing.
Will his caucus do the job and remove him? For most, its probably the best job they’ve ever had. I doubt they will act. This applies to the NDP and the Bloc as well – for most, the best job they’ve ever had.
So, it’s up to Canadians, in what will hopefully be a fair election. My guess is spring ’25. Too long to wait but too many MP’s enjoying the gravy train to go before.
You forget that if Mr. Blackface continues to lead, many of the those Liberal MP’s will most certainly face losing their jobs permanently……or at least til the next election cycle. I suspect another round of bad polling, another cock-up by the PM(not if, but when) the Liberal caucus will decide to cut their losses, and force the PM to resign. Libs generally do this without as much bloodletting as Cons, and certainly more quietly, but I suspect the deed will be done just the same.
Doubtful, they didn’t even vote themselves the legal power to dump their leader. Total fealty.
“…its probably the best job they’ve ever had OR EVER WILL HAVE.”
Fixed it.
I will join millions of Canadians who are tired of the Justin Trudeau cult. I don’t want him to resign though. I want his Caucus, which we are told he has taken for granted and mostly ignored, to find a collective spine and uprise against the Tyranny of the Cult and demand a resignation. Caucus discontent is spilling out into the open, so there is hope but some personal sacrifices will have to be made. Nobody has to put up with a terrible workplace situation where the Boss has lost the plot and refuses to read the writing on the wall.
Get on with the Liberal coup or sit as Independents. Enabling the dysfunction to continue for another two years will be a national embarrassment.
EXACTLY!!! BINGO!!! DINGDINGDING!!! 100%!!! THANKYOU!!!
Been saying this since Lavscam!
Holy F$&K already, what the hell are they waiting for?!?!?!?
He’s way ahead, but PP is still vulnerable, and especially so when he courts folks from the People’s Party by voting against a trade deal with Ukraine (catering to the fringe of his party and the people’s party where members are on Russia’s side). Also, he’s vulnerable, like Warren says, on the environment, and in addition to that he promotes conspiracy theory about the pandemic, and the WEF (anti-Semitic conspiracy theory).
I don’t buy the environment stuff at all. That’s giving Canadian voters way too much credit. Just say the word “environment” in a debate / press conference and 100% of Canadians will believe you have an environment plan just as valid as your opponent.
Not accurate.. None of it. Watch Larysaa Waler(a Ukrainian) on P and P basically dismiss all of the above. If you can get out of your echo chamber and have any interest, it starts at 1:25:
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2287771715596
And good lord, Ken Hardie is a dumbass. They get into that later.
.
They are sharpening the knives…….”shik,shik,shik”…
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-with-trudeau-resignation-fever-rising-a-conservative-nightmare-appears-1.6666103
Sean Fraser a Conservative nightmare, however?….Piffle….
Warren,
From CTV:
By Don Martin:
Don Martin: With Trudeau resignation fever rising, a Conservative nightmare appears
This piece is unadulterated bullshit. Trudeau is going N-O-W-H-E-R-E. They only sent out four cabinet ministers for optics purposes with the hope that the message would pass more forcefully and effectively. They’re wrong. They’re already done as dinner and they know it. But again, HimselfTM doesn’t give a shit if most of them go down with him in the next election. He won’t lose one solitary wink of sleep about that. You can take THAT to the bank, boys and girls.
Forget all that Ronald. Don must have been drunk writing to call Fraser a “conservative nightmare”. He won’t even win his own riding.
Martin,
If Peter gets back in, to call him determined would be the understatement of 2024.
If Peter gets back in … he’ll be eyeing Double P’s job.
Which means he’ll be so far away from the Front Bench that you’ll need binoculars to find him.
Douglas,
Don’t think so. I think Pierre and Peter are pretty much on the same wavelength: one leader at a time. MacKay is no Martin and the leader knows that.
Read it – I have to agree that Sean Fraser has a lot of potential, and also that it’s about time NS had a PM.
What are you talking about-they have had a disproportionate number given how small of a province they are. History is hard.
Curious,
Well, they did have Sir Charles Tupper.
…and.
I stand corrected. Just breezed his Wikipedia page. Well, it’s been long enough, about time for another.
Good lord. You aren’t done doing your research. Please carry on and report back.
Fraser is a “conservative nightmare”? That is actually funny. What is Don Martin on? For starters, if Peter runs, Fraser better run in another seat if they can find a safe one.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-with-trudeau-resignation-fever-rising-a-conservative-nightmare-appears-1.6666103&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
At least he isn’t the court jester
PP is a Jester, he’s the court Jester – waiting for him to wear a funny hat
We are aware of what you and your ever shrinking minority think of him. Do carry on.
Curious,
Is that the BEST you’ve got? If so, you’ll really need to try again.
The Liberals should circulate a picture of PP with a Jesters hat, or a tinfoil hat and his stance on a slew of issues
Pandemic conspiracy
WEF conspiracy
Bitcoin
Ukraine Trade Deal
The Environment
He’s ahead because he mobilized behind key issues without much to offer in terms of policy- cost of living, and housing, but given his stance on a multitude of issues he’s offside with Canadians. Also, Sean Fraser is doing a really good job on housing, and interest rate hikes are working to slow inflation to just above the 2 percent target outlined by the Bank of Canada.
Curious,
Too bad there’s no vaccine against the I Can’t Stand Trudeau’s Mug Anymore. LOL. Too bad that, for Liberals that is.
Curious,
Yeah, really good job on housing after doing diddly on it from 2015 through 2022. What was Trudeau’s excuse exactly?
“Pandemic conspiracy
WEF conspiracy
Bitcoin
Ukraine Trade Deal
The Environment”
The people in the food bank lines don’t care about any of that. They really don’t. So good with that and do carry on with the idea that it will work. It’s helpful
Ronald,
I think it’s unlikely, at this point, that Poilievre is going to go against Trudeau, so the whole thing could flip with a new face
Curious,
Let me get this straight: are you suggesting that you have a better read on Trudeau than I do? Maybe, but probably not. LOL. HimselfTM is going nowhere.
Think about it Ronald, if Trudeau resigns before the next election, he’s young enough to make a comeback.
Old white guy and former CSIS director, Ward Elcock, used the phrase “off the reservation” on P and P last night. No one called him out on it. Somewhere, Stock Day is going, WTF.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5UqgY7OA48&list=PLeyJPHbRnGaZ1LGEJXLVGF87go3CuPlWo&index=2
Can someone explain it to him:
https://www.ictinc.ca/blog/culturally-offensive-phrases
Pierre delivered a pretty good speech in downtown Toronto(literally enemy territory and he reminded the listeners of same) and he sure didn’t suck up to them. So much for the ridiculous prevailing nonsensical Tru-anon wisdom that he will be in the pockets of big business. It is literally the opposite of that as he explains:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZqHMW2zbBY
And no mention of any of the stuff Curious is talking about up there.
Martin,
Those fucking morons. They have the unmitigated gall to suggest that the CPC is in the pockets of big business??? This from the party of SNC and WE…absolute idiots on their best day. TOTALLY.
They really are like their leader.
Martin,
It’s important to make the point that sound money is in no way based on fiat currency, unless that currency is gold-backed. With the per capita debt levels that Canada “enjoys”, one way to increase investor confidence would be for the Bank of Canada to be mandated by the government to buy bullion reserves in tonnages. That should be put into place as soon as we’re elected and be steadily increased over time throughout a Poilièvre government mandate.