— Feature, Musings —02.10.2024 05:13 PM
My latest: memo to Biden campaign
By now, all of you have received the pre-release report of Robert K. Hur, the Special Counsel who was appointed by the United States Attorney General to investigate how classified documents were found in the Delaware home of the President.
We have two days to develop a war room response to the report. That is all.
It should be said the report contains one helpful result. It concludes that no charges should be brought against President Biden: “We conclude that no criminal charges are warranted in this matter,” Hur wrote.
But that will not be the focus of the media and the Trump campaign. Their focus will be these words in Hur’s report:
“Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview with him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
And: that the President could not recall when his son Beau died, that he has “limited memory” about key events, and could not recall the years he was Vice-President in the Obama administration.
These characterizations of the President are an unmitigated disaster. We have been given two days. If we do not use those two days to our advantage, we will have legitimized the main weakness of our campaign, which has always been the President’s mental fitness for the job.
There are five things we must do, now.
One, destroy the Special Counsel’s credibility. Robert K. Hur is a registered Republican. He is not a medical doctor, nor does he have any experience whatsoever in diagnosing for mental deficiencies. He is, in fact, a long-time donor to multiple Republican candidates. In addition, he was active in the Trump White House, even appearing at Trump-era events.
As a lawyer, Hur clerked for a Ninth Circuit judge who sexually harassed and abused more than a dozen female law clerks and staffers. Right now, we need to depict him as a Republican hack, one who worked in the Trump White House, and one who worked alongside GOP creeps.
Two: the Special Counsel violated the rules. With his report, Hur has practiced medicine without a licence to do so. The Rules of Professional Conduct for lawyers in America are clear: a lawyer is not permitted to engage in “deceit or misrepresentation” – here, pretending to be a doctor.
That is not all: the Goldwater Rule. Sixty years ago, Democratic operatives attacked the mental stability of the Republican presidential candidate, Barry Goldwater. Thereafter, the American Psychological Association said: “It is unethical for a psychiatrist to offer a professional opinion unless he or she has conducted an examination and has been granted proper authorization for such a statement.” If it is unethical for a psychologist to pronounce on a politician’s mental acuity, it is even worse for an unqualified partisan hack to do so.
Three: we need to provide clear evidence Hur is wrong. The allegation about his deceased son will enrage the President, and understandably so. It is disgusting for anyone to say that to a father about a son who predeceased him.
But we cannot let the President do any press encounters when he is angry. We cannot let any verbal mishaps between now and November. There is no room for error. And it is not enough to say that Trump is also mentally deficient, and regularly makes mistakes: his vote base hold him to a lower standard in every way. Saying that Trump is worse will make no difference.
Four: saturate the airwaves with our messaging. In the main, we need to (a) rally the troops, who will be understandably dispirited by Hur’s report, and (b) attack, attack, attack. We must be relentless, pointing out to Independents Trump’s many mistakes – getting wrong world leaders, getting countries wrong – and leave no breathing room for Republican proxies to push Hur’s narrative.
We may not win, but we need to turn this mess into a wash.
Five: we need to prepare for none of the above to happen. If we do not take advantage of the advance warning we have been given, we will have likely torpedoed victory in November. If the Republicans do not argue for removal of the President under the 25th Amendment, it’ll be a miracle.
If we do not move fast, the President will have been mortally wounded. And we will need to start considering succession.
Now.
[Kinsella ran multiple successful war rooms for Jean Chretien, Dalton McGuinty and others. He also volunteered on the 2020 Biden campaign.]
Warren,
I love this. Nothing like sound advice from a battle-hardened war room pro who has won more campaigns than most American war-roomers have.
Here’s my take: the mental acuity thing is already far too baked into the cake to reduce or negate its effect — for Trump, it’s a wash — like everything else, because MAGA Republicans and some Independents push all negative issues aside, given their obvious unconditional support for a man who happens to be a certified POS on his best day.
Independents are by far the biggest chunk of the electorate and they’re drifting in Trump’s direction largely due to the on-the-ground economic facts which in no way dovetail the official figures, no matter how manipulated for political purposes. Mainstreet will decide this election based on individual economic circumstances and that bodes ill for Biden and Company. No winning campaigning issue exists that exceeds the political effect of THIS issue. So, Biden is already on the ropes with a sub-50% approval rating. Frankly, it will take a miracle or a consensus-forming incredibly revolting Trump stumble to turn the tide in his favour going into November.
As for Hur’s report, it violates internal rules and regulations at Justice and likely also violates Bar rules. I expect him to come up before a Bar review before this is over. This report will generate a political firestorm, at least to some degree. Hur is quite obviously partisan but that will only play on the margins, given his conclusion not to charge Biden.
Think back to Clinton and Starr’s report. That one also crossed obvious red lines with the Special Counsel demonstrating at least very clear political leanings.
Finally, Biden is old and therefore cannot guarantee that there will be no further memory lapses or serious missteps between now and November. Only God can do that.
I’m for Biden but I’ll need to see a Hail Mary Pass for him to win.
He’ll muff the Hail Mary pass.
Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama.
One of the two will be on the November presidential ballot.
Douglas,
Have you heard anything? Last time I checked, Michelle definitely wasn’t interested.
I think that anyone wanting to replace Biden will wait until after Biden withdraws (if he withdraws).
If they announce before Biden makes an announcement, team Biden will rally to destroy said replacement.
Better to wait for others to force Biden’s withdrawl.
Her husband remains very involved.
Worth a read on 25th Amendment.
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/4458374-could-they-remove-biden-under-the-25th-amendment-should-they/
Biden isn’t going anywhere, unless he wants to.
He won’t be asked. He’ll be told: time’s up.
You realize that these comments you are making means that you agree with T that there is a deep state?
You don’t have to be a doctor to see that Biden has memory difficulties.
If the Democrats attack the special council, for not being qualified to judge memory issues, I doubt the public (even Democrats) will believe it.
Wouldn’t it be better if the Biden White House trotted out the President’s personal physician to tell everyone the President’s memory is fine?
Peter,
Not to put too fine a point on it, Biden’s memory is an interesting sideshow. What counts is the state of the country and that will determine if Biden wins re-election.
Wondering what the Democrat puppet masters are up to?
Biden has been useful.
Now, he’s of no use to them.
If they exist, they must be the ones who told Biden’s staff to react so badly to this.
Martin.
This is where I proudly get to quote my late father once again: everything’s bullshit. The so-called experts aren’t and winging it finds its way all the way up to the White House. (These people must be of the same calibre as those who advised Netanyahu on border security.)
Agree with most of this. Part two is a stretch I think.
One thing to add: Clinton’s best strategy during the Lewinski mess was to continue with the work of the nation, and *let it be seen* that he was continuing the work of the nation. More than any clever comms strategy, that is why he survived and remained very popular with the voters. Biden needs more of that in the days / weeks ahead.
But I fear it is all too late. After all the Hunter foolishness, Dems couldn’t take much more water coming in. They need to start gaming out a plan for a contested convention. They will have to fiddle with eligibility for the primaries I suppose, but the convention is six months away, so not impossible…
Peter,
The 25th Amendment isn’t for mild to moderate cognitive impairment. Rather, it’s for serious and debilitating impairment such as coming from a stroke. As usual, some people are already barking up the wrong tree: look at Reagan who was seriously declining during his second term due to Alzheimer’s and nothing came of it constitutionally.
Warren,
Garland was in a no-win situation: name a Democrat as Special Counsel and the decision is seen as rigged and self-serving for Biden. Name a Republican, and the decision is seen as at least partisan to some extent with a SC who already has his own political agenda.
Sort of reminds me of the ultimate stupidity where weak American presidents had no balls to name a Democrat as FBI Director. Since Hoover, only Republicans have held that office to this day. Totally ridiculous.
Politically, Biden would have been better off if they charged him.
Martin,
Kind of depends if progressive and centrist Democrats react in the same way that MAGA did.
Ronald-of course they would. The Tru-anons are literally behaving like Maga up here.
Succession should have happened before we got to this point. I don’t think it’s too much to ask for the Democrats to have come up with a competent, centrist, non-octogenarian to take on Trump. Instead, we are now risking a repeat of 2016 when the Democrats foolishly ran one of the few people incapable of beating Donald Trump.
I guess some people are just resistant to not shooting themselves in the foot.
Jim,
There’s a couple of reasons why succession didn’t happen: one, Joe Biden’s ego and his determination to run again against Trump, even if he loses. As incumbent, he’s earned that right even “if 86% of Americans think Biden, 81, is too old to serve another term as president”. The second reason is largely related to possible sexism and misogyny. Were Biden to withdraw, it would not be an open nomination process. The sitting VP would get the nod if Harris was interested in running. No question. Under that scenario, one hell of a lot of Democrats fear that they would lose this year with Harris at the top of the ticket. Maybe, maybe not.
As for Hillary, she did get almost three million more votes than Trump did.
Six: convince millions of people around the country (and the world) to not believe their lying eyes whenever the President is trotted out for some public appearance, and can hardly talk, walk, or find his way from the podium to the exit. Biden’s decline is obvious to anyone who has ever had to provide care to a loved one with severely declining mental acuity. I’m not sure how any war room creates that level of persuasion. I anticipate a campaign with very few public appearances. If it isn’t seen, then it doesn’t need to be mitigated.
Bill,
What will likely screw the Democrats even further is the question of the presidential debates. If Biden is now incapable of debating Trump, then that will be the final nail in his political coffin. Can Biden debate adequately and effectively? IMHO, those odds are already no more than 50-50.
There are rumours that Joe Biden will be replaced before the election. I’ve heard Gavin Newsom mentioned. I”m not sure whether or not it’s likely, but it can’t be good for the president when such rumours persist.
As much as I wish that were the case, my understanding is that it is a virtual impossibility at this stage under the rules of candidate selection.
There was an excellent and detailed analysis in a recent edition of the Economist of the entire Biden candidacy fiasco – and it’s worth noting the Economist is pretty anti-Trump. Their review set out the vast number of mistakes the Democrats have made in getting to this point, and how they squandered numerous opportunities to gently and diplomatically put Biden aside and select a better candidate. Now, it is too late.
This 2024 election will go down in history as the most incredible missed political opportunity in modern history. Trump is an obvious menace, and abhorrent human being, and nearly any other Dem candidate would have mopped the floor with him. But the “loyalty” (quote marks intended) to Biden amongst extraordinarily misguided Dems has sunk their ship, and we are probably going to get the Orange Idiot for another four years. God help us all.
Odd thing about Newsom: he’s more popular outside his state.
Douglas,
Rick Rule calls it The People’s Republic of California. That’s why he moved to Washington State and Vancouver.
One take on “shiny” Gavin from a writer for the Atlantic:
https://x.com/EricAbbenante/status/1756176062579408978?s=20
Bill Maher loves him but only because he is not Biden.
Martin,
Newsom is so shiny that he would tax your last penny if he could. Next.
Gilbert,
Newsom is showboating for 2028. Nothing more. He’s smart enough not to challenge Biden or even Harris if Biden falters.
If Biden falters?
Can he get any worse?
Hold on, I’m retracting that question.
Let’s say it is a Trump-Biden rematch. What would happen if Biden at a ‘seniors moment’ during one of the debates?
It would be a disaster.